银行代理保险业务的洗钱风险及防范对策

近几年来,我国银行代理保险业务发展迅猛,给我国的经济金融注入了新的活力,但由于对洗钱风险认识不足,业务人员反洗钱技能不高,内控制度不健全等,使得银行代理保险业务中存在较高的洗钱风险,应予以关注。     

Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions

This paper provides new evidence that bouts of optimism and pessimism are an important source of U.S. business cycles, using the identification schemes based on sign restrictions. We document that identified optimism and pessimism shocks account for about 30% of U.S. business‐cycle fluctuations in hours and output. In addition, our empirical findings are consistent with the intensive‐ and extensive‐margin adjustments in the U.S. labor market over business cycles, providing further support to optimism shocks being an important source of U.S. business cycles. The identified optimism shocks are at least partially rational as total factor productivity is found to rise 8–12 quarters after an initial bout of optimism. While this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature, we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self‐fulfilling beliefs.     

Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle

Abstract:  Prior research has demonstrated higher value relevance of current earnings during economic expansions relative to contractions. We largely attribute such a result to expected growth prospects being captured in the current earnings coefficient when a direct proxy for expected future earnings is omitted from the returns-earnings model. We demonstrate that the conservatism and value relevance of current earnings is actually higher during economic contractions when including a proxy for future earnings expectations. We further demonstrate that the value-relevance of expected future earnings is higher during expansions, when the association between historical accounting information and future growth opportunities likely weakens.     

中国与东盟成员国转让定价税务管理的比较

中国和东盟成员国同属发展中国家,都实行对外开放和吸引外资的经济政策,而且也都面临着外商投资企业滥用转让定价的问题。本文通过比较中国和东盟成员国转让定价税务管理的立法情况、审查和调整方法、预约定价管理、文档管理、处罚规定和审查力度等方面的异同,发现中国现阶段转让定价税务管理中的不足之处,并提出切实可行的改进建议。     

Real‐Time Risk Pricing Over the Business Cycle: Some Evidence for the UK

Abstract:   The fully‐revised data typically utilized in empirical research do not reflect the true information available to financial market participants at the time of their decision‐making. This paper uses a new real‐time macroeconomic dataset to appraise the relative importance of different vintages of data on economic variables as determinants of UK stock returns using the framework of Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find that two factors influence expected stock returns, namely unanticipated inflation and economic uncertainty, but only when measured in real‐time. Moreover, their pricing influence is only present during phases of the business cycle when their associated risks are at their most prevalent.     

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

This article examines whether movements in economic factors dictated by the dividend discount model can explain broad movements in stock returns over the business cycle. As anticipated, stock returns decrease throughout economic expansions and become negative during the first half of recessions. Returns are largest during the second half of recessions, suggesting an important role for expected earnings. These results are consistent with the notion that expected stock returns vary inversely with economic conditions, yet suggest that realized returns are especially poor indicators of expected returns prior to turning points in the business cycle.     

湖南经济周期阶段及其持续性分析

根据湖南1978～2008年的相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行的研究,结果表明:虽然2004年湖南已经开始进入经济扩张阶段,但是2008年经济出现回落的迹象,实际产出正在向潜在产出靠近.同时,对湖南经济周期持续性研究结果表明:经济扩张阶段的持续时间一般是5.33年左右,因此,在2009年湖南经济周期阶段有可能发生变化,即经济很可能从扩张阶段转向收缩阶段.     

Money and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from a High-Inflation Country

This paper examines how money balances held by manufacturing firms affect their efficiency in generating sales revenue in a high-inflation economy. The analysis employs data from Turkish firms to estimate a stochastic frontier model, finding a strong positive association between the firms' money holdings and their efficiency. However, the role of money balances seems to diminish as firms hold higher raw material inventories.     

湖南经济周期阶段的分析与预测

根据湖南1978～2010年相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行分析,结果表明:1978～2010年湖南经济经历了5个繁荣时期,分别是1978～1979年、1984～1986年、1991～1993年、1995～1998年、2006～2010年,且繁荣阶段的持续性在不断增强;其余年份经济处于衰退阶段。另外,湖南经济周期阶段预测结果显示:2011～2012年经济依然处于繁荣阶段;2013～2015经济处于衰退阶段,虽然处于衰退阶段,但是其程度并不深,尤其是2015年。     

Optimal Asset Allocation Over the Business Cycle

Utilizing a broadly diversified portfolio of nine equity and debt assets, we show our portfolio's in-sample Markowitz return/risk profile considerably improved by keying asset proportions to cyclical changes in economic activity. For comparative purposes, we use the same assets in a hypothetical buy-and-hold benchmark portfolio. We find the variance/covariance structure of our portfolio to be considerably altered by the phase of the business cycle, with the diversification benefits enjoyed during expansions substantially diluted during recessions. Thus, cyclical reallocation appears to be more important in maintaining Markowitz efficiency during recessions vis-a-vis expansions. In the latter case we find expansion reallocation producing a 3.53% increase in our portfolio's return-to-risk ratio (relative to a buy-and-hold position), while for recessions optimal reallocation leads to a 79.14% increase.     

Research on the Credit Cycle and Business Cycle with a Focus on Ten States from Central,Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

By performing an econometric analysis of the credit cycle and business cycle from an individual as well as a comparative perspective, with a focus on ten relevant economies from the areas of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, this research offers a fresh view regarding the importance of banks in promoting long-term economic growth through their lending capacity. The purpose is to better understand the behavior (the short- and medium-term dynamics) of the credit cycle and business cycle and the effects of the interactions between them. The results of this study offer valuable insights for both academics and policymakers and provide a warning to regulators not to overregulate or put too much pressure on banking activity.     

The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries

We estimate short‐ and long‐run tax elasticities that capture the relationship between changes in national income and tax revenue. We show that the short‐run tax elasticity changes according to the business cycle. We estimate a two‐state Markov‐switching regression on a novel data set of tax policy reforms in 15 European countries from 1980 to 2013, showing that the elasticities during booms and recessions are statistically (and often economically) different. The elasticities of personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, indirect taxes and social contributions tend to be larger during recessions. Estimates of long‐run elasticities are in line with existing literature.     

不同层次货币供给与消费波动的关联效应比较——来自我国频域的经济证据

利用我国改革开放30年以来的月度数据,从频域的视角量化及比较分析了三个不同层次货币供给和实质消费波动间的关联效应。谱分析结果表明:我国各层次货币供给与消费波动均存在长短不一的周期波动;随着货币层次的变化,消费与货币供给波动间的相关性沿频率梯度做出规律的响应;佐证了M0与消费相关关系最为密切,其次为M1和M2这一经典命题在我国的成立;不同层次货币供给与消费波动间的时差存在差异,且亦与波动频率密切相关。     

异质性劳动力供给、工资粘性与中国经济周期

通过同时引入异质性劳动力供给和工资粘性拓展了包含五类外生冲击的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在此框架下考察异质性劳动力供给和工资粘性对经济周期的作用及传导机制,并分析两者传播和放大外生冲击作用的异同,研究发现：同时包含异质性劳动力供给和工资粘性的一般均衡模型要明显优于非异质性劳动力供给和无工资粘性模型;异质性劳动力供给和工资粘性均在一定程度上放大了外生冲击对经济波动的影响,在不包含两者的情形下,投资冲击的贡献度变小,技术冲击和政府支出冲击的贡献度变大。     

中国经济周期波动的福利成本研究——基于小概率“严重衰退”事件的视角

本文在Lucas模型基础上,引入存在严重衰退状态的消费增长过程,重新估算中国经济周期的福利成本,修正了Lucas论断。通过本文模型的计算,我们得出:(1)应用存在严重衰退状态的福利成本模型估算的中国经济波动的福利成本远远高于Lucas模型估算的结果。在合理的参数范围内,前者一般是后者的10倍左右。因此,对于中国经济而言,旨在防止严重衰退状态发生的宏观稳定政策的福利收益相当大。(2)对于中国经济而言,降低严重衰退状态发生的概率(从0.017降低到0.003)所获得的福利收益大约是Lucas模型结果的3～4倍。这表明,中国宏观稳定政策的收益主要来源于降低严重衰退状态的发生概率,而不是减少通常意义上的经济波动。(3)在相对风险规避系数取值范围内(γ小于6),中国经济波动的福利成本与美国经济波动的福利成本相当接近。这从某种程度上说明了存在严重衰退状态的福利成本模型适用于不同的经济体。     

人民币升值、股价上涨和热钱流入关系的实证研究

本文基于CLR(1996)模型和多重套利模型(2007)这两个重要理论模型来解释国内人民币升值、股票价格上涨和热钱流入之间存在的互动关系。并结合样本数据通过Granger因果关系对人民币升值、股票价格上涨和热钱流入的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示:人民币升值和上证综合指数上涨是热钱流入中国大陆的原因,但热钱流入不是人民币升值和上证综合指数上涨的原因。对理论模型解释和实证检验结果之间出现的异同。本文做出分析和解释。最后给出政策建议。     

东盟十国征信市场发展概况、特征及启示

随着中国与第一大贸易伙伴东盟之间的双边贸易与投资往来日益频繁,跨境征信合作成为中国与东盟企业、金融机构信息互通及共享的迫切需求,但国内对东盟的征信业鲜有研究,跨境征信合作缺乏"支点".通过梳理新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等东盟十国的征信市场发展情况,总结近年来东盟征信行业动态特征,分析中国与东盟国家间现行的征信信息跨境...     

跨国银行应对经济周期的战略研究

深入剖析经济周期性波动对跨国银行经营发展的影响,研究并制定跨国银行应对经济周期的战略举措,是跨国银行的必然选择。本文运用经济周期理论,以商业银行盈利增长速度和盈利稳定性两个纬度作为评判标准,对长期保持较高盈利且在危机中具有较强减震能力的优秀跨国银行应对经济周期性波动的战略选择及行为模式进行了实证分析和比较分析,从全球机构建设、业务发展、风险管理和支持保障体系等4个方面,提出了商业银行跨国经营应对经济周期波动的核心举措,为商业银行特别是中资银行实施跨国经营战略提供了思路和范式。     

Capital over the Business Cycle: Renting versus Ownership

We find that capital renting makes up one‐fifth of U.S. capital expenditures, and it increases during downturns. Further, we present cross‐country evidence that output losses after financial crises are smaller where renting is more prevalent. To understand these findings, we build a general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints and with the option to rent or buy capital. The countercyclicality of rentals occurs because their supply increases, as renting serves as an additional means of savings when credit markets malfunction. Moreover, demand also shifts toward rentals as they become relatively cheaper. By absorbing excess savings, renting mitigates financial crises.