Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?

Daily returns of stock markets in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, South America, and Eastern Europe from the early 1990s through 2006 are analyzed for the possible presence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. The absence of these is tested for by studying residuals of vector autoregressive-based fundamentals, using the Hamilton regimeswitching model and the rescaled range analysis of Hurst. For the first test, absence of bubbles is rejected for twenty-four countries (except Mexico, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan); for the second test, it is rejected for twenty-six countries (except Malaysia). BDS testing on these residuals after autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effects are removed fails to reject further nonlinearity (except for Israel). Policy issues are discussed, noting that what is appropriate varies from country to country and time period to time period.     

Do Focused Funds Offer Superior Performance in an Emerging Market? Evidence from Taiwan's Stock Market

We examine the effects of the number of stock holdings and industry concentration on Taiwan's equity fund performance. The quadratic regression model is applied to explore the optimal number of stock holdings for mutual funds. The empirical results suggest that funds with a smaller number of stock holdings and with a higher level of industry concentration achieve better performance. We also find that mutual fund performance and the number of stock holdings have an inverted U-shaped relationship, and funds that hold twenty-four to twenty-eight stocks can generate superior performance.     

Investors’ Behavior in an Emerging,Tax-Free Market

We provide empirical evidence on the stock market participants’ behavior in an emerging market, with a tax-free environment. Our results show that United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) investors exhibit overconfidence and home bias, and tend to sell prior winners and buy prior losers. We find that investors rely on familiarity and on their information channels to make decisions. The results indicate that investors are risk averse, especially after the global financial crisis, which has had contagion effect on UAE markets. Investors attribute this effect to the inability to manage systemic crisis and to problems of information asymmetry, insider trading, and lack of good governance during crisis.     

Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?

Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financialmarkets in emerging economies. They affect not only the instrumentbeing rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact themarkets of the countries rated and generate cross-country contagion.The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger duringcrises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries.Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgradesoccur during downturns, providing support to the idea that creditrating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financialmarkets.     

Who Gambles in the Stock Market?

This study shows that the propensity to gamble and investment decisions are correlated. At the aggregate level, individual investors prefer stocks with lottery features, and like lottery demand, the demand for lottery-type stocks increases during economic downturns. In the cross-section, socioeconomic factors that induce greater expenditure in lotteries are associated with greater investment in lottery-type stocks. Further, lottery investment levels are higher in regions with favorable lottery environments. Because lottery-type stocks underperform, gambling-related underperformance is greater among low-income investors who excessively overweight lottery-type stocks. These results indicate that state lotteries and lottery-type stocks attract very similar socioeconomic clienteles.     

What Can Countries in Other Regions Learn from Social Security Reform in Latin America?

About a dozen countries in Latin America have enacted reformsthat include elements being contemplated elsewhere, includingthe partial privatization of social security. It is not easyto draw universal lessons for social security reform from theexperience of countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Mexico,however, where sizeable public pension systems went bankruptbefore the populations aged, mainly because of mismanagement.Most developing economies have much smaller social securitysystems. Relatively well-managed systems in industrial countriesface problems that are long term in nature and have been broughtabout by an aging population. The experiences of Latin Americanevertheless offer some general lessons for countries in otherparts of the world. These lessons relate to changes in labormarket incentives accompanying reforms and how workers reactto them, government actions that have met with success in managingthe transition to funded pensions, and the expectations of individualsfrom social security systems. Latin America's reforms suggestthat the most effective approach is to keep payroll taxes low,governments solvent, and social security systems focused onproviding reasonable insurance against poverty in old age. JEL codes: G23, H31, H53, H55, J26     

Stock Market Anomalies: What Can We Learn from Repurchases and Insider Trading?

We examine whether managers’ trading decisions (both at a firm and personal level) are correlated with trading strategies suggested by the operating accruals and the post-earnings announcement drift (SUE) anomalies. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of the use of managerial trading activity to infer managers’ private valuation about their own securities. Our results provide corroborative evidence for the accruals anomaly, i.e., managers’ repurchase and insider trading behavior varies consistently with the information underlying the operating accruals trading strategy. On the other hand, we do not find corroborative evidence for the SUE anomaly.

Investors’ Fear and Herding Behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

This article analyzes the influence of investors’ fear on their investment behavior in the Taiwan stock market. This study used the volatility index (VIX) as a barometer of investors’ fear. Our results show that herding behavior increases with the VIX; that is, herding behavior is encouraged by an increase in investors’ fear. Moreover, our results demonstrate that investors react more quickly to bad news than to good news when their fear increases, supporting the hypothesis of the presence of an asymmetric reaction to news. However, investors react more quickly to good news when their fear decreases, indicating an inverse asymmetric reaction. In addition, our empirical results reveal that herding behavior tends to exist on days with a large trading volume.     

What Determines Stock Price Synchronicity in REITs?

This paper studies the behavior of REIT stock price synchronicity for the years 1997 through 2006. Theory suggests that REIT stock prices should be largely independent of market changes; and, at the very least, REITs should have a low covariance with other assets, including other REIT stocks. The evidence presented below does not support this view. Instead, synchronicity appears to be quite high in the equity REIT market, especially among REITs that larger and more liquid. We also find that REIT stock price synchronicity is negatively related to hedge fund ownership, but positively related to pension fund and insurance company ownership. The evidence further suggests that synchronicity is the highest among industrial and regional mall REITs, and lower among apartment, health care, and mixed property REITs.     

Is Financial Flexibility a Priced Factor in the Stock Market?

This paper develops a factor analysis–based measure for shifts in corporate financial flexibility (FFLEX) that can be observed from public accounting information. Companies that experience positive shifts in FFLEX are associated with higher future investment growth opportunities. We show that FFLEX is a robust determinant of future stock returns. Firms that have increased their financial flexibility are associated with lower stock returns in the subsequent period. A zero‐cost return portfolio produces a significant positive monthly premium of 0.69%, which is driven by covariance (risk). Risk inherent in the flexibility factor is not explained away by either prominent pricing characteristics or factors.     

Do Newly Listed Derivatives Affect the Market Risk Premium in a Thin Stock Market?

This study examines the effects on the stock market unitaryrisk premium and volatility associated with the listing of stockand stock index derivatives in Switzerland. Based on a univariateGARCH (1,1) specification of the stock index variance and atime-varying unitary risk premium representation, we can rejectthe hypothesis that stock and stock index derivatives listingsdo not affect the total risk premium. Contrarily to previousempirical evidence, we find that derivatives listings affectboth the conditional market returns’ variance and theunitary risk premium through structural shocks. The gradualmarket completion hypothesis is further corroborated in that,cumulatively, the three stock and stock index options futuresderivatives listings reduced the unitary risk premium whilethe marginal impact of each successive listing decayed. JELClassification: G12, G14.     

Are Chinese Stock Market Cycles Duration Independent?

This paper studies the duration properties of the Chinese stock market cycle. We find evidence for duration dependence in both A‐share and B‐share markets for whole cycles. The results reject the random‐walk hypotheses for both markets. For half cycles, evidence of duration dependence for expansions in the Shanghai A‐share market is found. For the Shenzhen B‐share market, there is little evidence of duration dependence for half cycles. Although the B‐share market is less liquid as compared to the A‐share market, the results of this study suggest that the B‐share market is more efficient than the A‐share market. An important implication is that the quality of market participants plays an important role in the duration property of the Chinese stock market.     

Does IFRS Mandatory Adoption Affect Information Asymmetry in the Stock Market?

The purpose of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), adopted mandatorily by European listed firms in 2005, is to increase the transparency and the comparability of accounting information, which should have led to improvements in these firms’ information environments. This study uses market microstructure proxies for information asymmetry to examine the effects of IFRS adoption on the level of information asymmetry in the Spanish stock market. Therefore, we consider a setting with substantial differences between local standards – Spanish Accounting Standards (SAS) ? and IFRS and where the level of enforcement is low. By controlling for conventional determinants of information asymmetry and firms’ characteristics that influence their information environments, we find a reduction of information asymmetry after IFRS adoption. Our findings suggest that the mandatory switch from local accounting standards to IFRS conveys benefits to the market, even when the enforcement level is not strong.     

The Three-Factor Model and Size and Value Premiums in China’s Stock Market

Using monthly data from China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) A-share market between 2005 and 2012, this article performs an empirical study on the applicability of the three-factor model to China’s stock market. After testing twenty-five size-BE/ME stock portfolios and four stock sector portfolios, we found that the three-factor model, adjusted for the unique features of China’s stock market, generally fits the SSE A-share market well. The results show that size and value premiums are significant in China’s stock market, although there exist modest differences among industrial sectors. In addition, our empirical results are robust to factor sorting and construction methods.     

Does ESG Certification Improve Price Efficiency in the Chinese Stock Market?

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - This paper investigates the impact of ESG certification on the pricing efficiency in Chinese listed firms and examines the internal mechanism of this impact....     

One More Step,Some More Performance? An Empirical Study on Initial Public Offerings in the Taiwan Emerging Stock Market

This paper investigates the performance effects of initial public offering policies in Taiwan's stock market from 1997 to 2006. We divide the listing channels into six models and test performance differences under each model, using nonparameter tests. We find that indirect listing methods perform better than do direct methods. The results suggest that the longer the processes take for corporations to terminate one market and move to the target final market, the better the firm performance. The results have important policy implications for the ability of a newly established emerging stock market initiative to channel capital into financial markets.     

When Do Listed Firms Pay for Market Making in Their Own Stock?

A recent innovation in the equity markets is the introduction of market maker services procured by the listed companies themselves. Using data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, we investigate what motivates issuing firms to pay to improve the secondary market liquidity of their listed shares. By examining the timing of market maker hirings relative to corporate events, we show that hirings are more likely when the firm will interact with the capital markets in the near future. Futhermore, a typical firm employing a designated market maker is more likely to raise capital, repurchase shares, or experience an exit by insiders.     

Does Cross-Listing Really Enhance Market Efficiency for Stocks Listed in the Home Market? The Perspective of Noise Trading in the Chinese Stock Market

The investor recognition hypothesis and the bonding hypothesis, which help us understand the market quality of stocks that are cross-listed on different stock markets, imply improved market efficiency after cross-listing because of increased investor participation. However, the noise trading of inexperienced investors in the Chinese stock market negatively affects market efficiency. By employing propensity score matching and multivariate regression analysis, we show that the increased individual investor participation actually lowers market efficiency in their home market after cross-listing. This effect is more evident for stocks that were either listed first on the Chinese stock market or listed on the Chinese stock market and the Hong Kong stock exchange (SEHK) on the same date than for stocks that were listed first on the SEHK.     

What Drives Executive Stock Option Backdating?

We study motives for executive stock option backdating, the practice of changing the grant dates of current options to dates in the past using hindsight. We find that smaller, younger and less profitable firms tend to be more heavily involved in backdating. These results are consistent with the retention hypothesis. In line with the incentive hypothesis, we find that backdating occurs more for options that are out‐of‐the‐money. We derive some evidence for the agency hypothesis, in the sense that backdating companies have a larger percentage of inside directors. However, contrary to this hypothesis, we conclude that backdating firms have better protection for minority shareholders compared to firms that do not backdate.