Bank risk-taking and corporate investment: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

In this paper, we explore the relation between the banking sector's risk-taking and a firm's investment (“corporate investment”). Specifically, we ask whether firms' cash holdings moderate the effect of the banking sector's risk-taking on corporate investment. Based on a panel sample of publicly listed non-financial firms in 15 EU countries during the period 1990–2015, we document several key findings. First, both cash holdings and the banking sector's risk-taking are positively associated with corporate investment. Second, bank loan growth, which roughly captures the supply of bank credit, is not related to corporate investment. Third, firms with smaller cash holdings disproportionately invest more than do firms with larger cash holdings during periods of higher risk-taking by the banking sector.     

The Role of Ownership Concentration and Debt in Downturns: Evidence from Brazilian Firms During the 2008–9 Financial Crisis

This article aims to reconcile conflicting literature about the role of ownership concentration in the responsiveness of stock prices to macroeconomic shocks. We modified a previous theoretical model, adding leverage as a disciplining device. An important implication of our model is that only in deep crises ownership concentration plays a role in attenuating the effect of macroeconomic shock on firm value. We test this hypothesis using a sample of Brazilian firms during distinct phases of the 2008–9 crisis. Our empirical analyzes shows that only in the most critical part of the crisis, ownership concentration reduced the negative effects of the financial crisis.     

The Value Relevance and Timeliness of Write-downs During the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

This study examines the value relevance and timeliness of write-downs reported by North American and European banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Our study extends Vyas (2011), considering the association between write-downs and stock returns to evaluate the performance of fair value standards during the crisis. Specifically, we investigate claims that strict enforcements of standards resulted in write-downs that were excessive or unnecessary due to temporary market price distortions, or conversely, that standards were flexible enough to allow managers to engage in earnings or capital management. Our empirical results show that both fair-value and aggregate write-downs are associated dollar-for-dollar with contemporaneous security returns, suggesting that, on average, write-downs were timely throughout the financial crisis.     

Multinational Banks and the Global Financial Crisis: Weathering the Perfect Storm?

We use data on the 48 largest multinational banking groups to compare the lending of their 199 foreign subsidiaries during the Great Recession with lending by a benchmark of 202 domestic banks. Contrary to earlier and more contained crises, parent banks were not a significant source of strength to their subsidiaries during 2008–09. When controlling for other bank characteristics, multinational bank subsidiaries had to slow down credit growth almost three times as fast as domestic banks. This was in particular the case for subsidiaries of banking groups that relied more on wholesale funding.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the European Single Market: The end of integration?

Using various versions of the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) coefficient, we measure the time-varying degree of capital mobility and economic integration in the European Union. Prior research shows high correlation between domestic investment and savings implying low capital mobility. This surprising result has led to subsequent research on the ‘Feldstein-Horioka puzzle’. Our empirical findings show that the puzzle is less puzzling with a coefficient of 0.52 in the period 1990–1995 in EU countries approaching its minimum value of 0.02 in the period 2003–2008. This clearly indicates that the FH coefficient is time-varying signalling a deepening of economic integration in the European Union. Yet, with the advent of the Global Financial Crisis the FH coefficient has increased to 0.26 underlining worrying signs of disintegration.     

What Determined the Great Cap Rate Compression of 2000–2007, and the Dramatic Reversal During the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis?

In this paper we revisit the many studies that have attempted to explain the determinants of commercial real estate capitalization rates. We introduce two new innovations. First we are able to incorporate two macroeconomic factors that greatly impact cap rates besides treasury rates and local market fundamentals – the variables most commonly used in such research. These are the general corporate risk premium operating in the economy, and the growth rate of debt relative to GDP in the general economy (liquidity). The addition of these factors greatly adds to the ability of previous models to explain the secular fall of cap rates in the last decade and their recent rise – in terms of traditional measures of within-sample fit. Our second innovation is methodological; our analysis uses a large and robust quarterly panel data set of over 30 US metropolitan areas from 1980q1 through 2009q3. With this data we compare 3 models: a “base model” and then one that selectively adds each of our macro-economic variables. We test the ability of each of these models to fit the 2002–2009 period using “back test” dynamic forecasts. Our conclusion is that much of the secular decline in cap rates from 2000 through 2007 and their subsequent rise seem attributable to the macro-economic factors and less to movements in market fundamentals.     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.     

Financial Supply Chain： An Innovating Research on the Loan Business Model of Commercial Banks in the Post Financial Crisis Era

本文通过扩展传统Shapley数值建模理论的基本假定,研究了金融供应链群态融资模式的产出绩效和风险结构,论证了合作主体收益分配的改进路径;基于正向边际和信息增益的假定,研究了中小企业边际竞争力提升的环境和条件,并由此得出了金融供应链这一新型融资模式的存续机制和运行原理;建立在供应链系统风险结构分解的基础上,本文首次定义了行业特征的产出离差和金融供应链系统的稳定系数,分别计量经济个体与组合生产的系统性风险;通过引入动态价值评估模式,论证了金融供应链在我国弱势信贷市场实践中的重要意义。     

The Quality and Price of Investment Banks’ Service: Evidence from the PIPE Market

We investigate the market structure and the pricing by placement agents of private investments in public equities (PIPEs). Our findings indicate that more reputable agents are associated with larger offers and with firms possessing lower risk. Agent reputation is positively associated with lower discounts and an enhanced post-PIPE trading environment. Issuers pay a higher dollar fee for these benefits, although more reputable agents charge a lower percentage fee. The evidence suggests that it is the quality of the issuing firm, and the pricing and reputational concern of the placement agent, that drives the equilibrium in the PIPE market.     

Would a Relaxation of the Exchange Rate Regime Increase the Independence of Chinese Monetary Policy? Evidence from China

Some policymakers and academic researchers suggest that relaxing the exchange rate regime will increase the independence of Chinese monetary policy. To test this argument, we estimate spot interest rate models with dummy variable sets and derive an economic interpretation. The empirical results suggest that a relaxation of the exchange rate regime increases the independence of market-based monetary policy; however, it weakens the independence of monetary policy for forecasting future normal events, and it also imposes an ambiguous impact on the independence of monetary policy for forecasting future rare events.     

The Federal Reserve and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Treating a Virus with Antibiotics? Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market

The two main explanations for the crisis in the commercial paper (CP) market are credit concerns and liquidity issues. The CP market is not homogeneous in terms of credit quality, maturities and types of issues. We find that lower credit‐quality CP suffered more during the crisis. Additionally, we find little evidence that Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity facilities reduced the impact of the crisis, but that when the Fed became a lender in the CP market, the crisis pressures were dramatically reduced. We conclude that the crisis in the money markets is related more to increases in credit risk. Liquidity is a secondary issue.     

The Determinants of Foreign Currency Hedging–Evidence from Hong Kong Non-Financial Firms

Hong Kong is one of the largest trading economies in the world. Business opportunities attract the presence of more and more multinational companies and different currencies. Hedging currency risks has become an important and vital activity for a success business entity in Hong Kong. This paper empirically tests the determinants of foreign currency hedging for a large sample of Hong Kong non-financial firms. The findings are potentially useful for increasing firms’ economic benefit and shareholders’ wealth as well as improving the economic efficiency of currency hedging for companies in Hong Kong as well as in the mainland of China. JEL classification: F30, G32, G33     

The Influential Factors on Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the “The Belt and Road”

ABSTRACT

In this article, we investigate the nonlinear impact on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with the sample of 12 countries along “The Belt and Road Initiative” in the period of 2010–2015. We find that both overall economic freedom (EF), the interaction of EF and institutional instance, bilateral trade, GDP, and patent significantly influence OFDI. We also demonstrate that EF and economic development exert the inverted “U” effect on OFDI in the different regime. Accordingly, policies specifically designed to increase development of OFDI should be required to address the negative effects considering the differences of EF and economic development.     

Bank Disclosure and Market Assessment of Financial Fragility: Evidence from Turkish Banks’ Equity Prices

In this paper we explore whether Turkish banks with worsening indicators of financial fragility were subject to market monitoring during the years leading to the 2000/2001 crisis, and how the quality and timeliness of the disclosure affect market reaction. We find that shareholders reacted negatively to indicators of financial fragility such as increases in maturity mismatches, currency mismatches, and non-performing loans, showing shareholders’ concerns about the impact of financial fragility indicators on future profits. We also find that audited statements that show larger reporting lags, are not informative, pointing to the need of improving their timeliness. Finally, our study suggests that the finding that securities prices react to financial fragility indicators should not be taken as sufficient evidence of banks’ safety and soundness.     

Did Real Estate Professionals Anticipate the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis? Evidence from Insider Trading in the REITs

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This research examines whether real estate professionals detected the property bubble and foresaw the consequent financial crisis of 2007-2008. By...     

Stock market correlations during the financial crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from 50 equity markets

Using data from 50 equity markets we examine conditional and unconditional correlations around two major banking events during the financial crisis of 2008–09. To measure the value of covariance information on the augmented DCC model used in the study, a portfolio in-sample estimation is performed. We show that by taking into account the change in the level of variance in high volatility periods, the estimates of the conditional covariance are more efficient in capturing the dynamics of the stock markets variance. Furthermore, in a two-asset allocation framework, the model consistently generates relatively low portfolio variances, implying substantial benefits in portfolio diversification.     

Impact of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on the external and internal linkages of European frontier stock markets

This study investigates the impact of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on (i) external linkages of European frontier stock markets (Croatia, Estonia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) with the developed equity markets (the US, the UK, and Germany) and (ii) internal linkages within the frontier markets. The results demonstrate that both long- and short-run external linkages were strengthened during the crisis. The analysis of internal linkages reveals strong relationship only between the Croatian and Slovenian markets. However, the other frontier markets in the group were weakly linked, implying that European frontier stock markets may constitute a good alternative source of diversification benefits during crises periods.     

Impact of MiFID II tick-size regime on equity markets—Evidence from the LSE

This study investigates the impact of MiFID II on the London Stock Exchange. We find that a tick-size reduction leads to lower bid–ask spreads, lower trade values, reduced cost of trading at and beyond the best bid-offer, an acceleration of quote updates, an increase in aggressive trades and a reduction in price impact. Increased tick size widens spreads and increases trading costs. Step functions reveal that liquidity adjusts opposite to the tick change. To determine if impacts are proportional, we identify potential functions that predict cost changes with tick updates, implying that traders adjust their trade sizes according to the new tick levels.     

The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

The primary aim of this study is to carry out an investigation into the effects of analysts’ herding on different types of traders in Taiwan stock market. Our empirical results reveal that smaller traders are more readily affected by analyst herding, essentially as a result of their lack of experience and their lack of access to relevant information sources, which leads to them reacting directly to the central point of the recommendations made by the analysts. Our findings also reveal that both small and large traders are affected by analyst herding in the recommendations provided by the analysts relating specifically to buying. As for the evidence on analyst herding in recommendations relating to selling, larger traders are invariably found to have made use of their informational advantages to act in advance of such recommendations.