官员晋升竞争与边界效应:以省区交界地带的经济发展为例

本文运用中国1997～2003年县级面板数据,系统考察了省区交界地带与非交界地区经济发展的差异。我们发现,位于省界线上的县级区域的人均GDP显著低于非省界上的县级地区;而国境线上的县域经济发展则不受边界因素的影响。交界省份越多,位于交界线附近的县份经济发展越落后。交界线上的两省经济差距越接近,交界地区的县域经济的发展相对来说越落后。所有这些经验发现与中国地方官员的政治锦标赛理论相一致,而其他相关理论无法给予一致的解释。     

通货膨胀的门限效应与金融—经济增长关系——基于中国数据的经验研究

在探讨金融与经济增长关系的研究中,一个重要的研究问题就是金融发展与经济增长之间关系是否取决于通货膨胀的水平。基于门限效应回归模型,本文利用中国1952年至2008年的年度数据将通货膨胀作为门限变量进行了实证研究。研究结果表明金融发展与中国的经济增长之间存在着统计意义上显著的非线性关系,通货膨胀处于门限值以下金融发展促进经济增长,而通货膨胀超过门限值金融发展则不再显著地促进经济增长。这启示我们强调金融发展的增长效应时,政策制定者需要将通货膨胀率保持在其发生结构性变化水平以内。     

Cross‐Border Bank M&As and Risk: Evidence from the Bond Market

The impact of cross‐border bank M&As on bank risk remains an open question. Though geographically diversifying bank M&As have the potential to reduce the risk of bank insolvency, they also have the potential to increase that risk due to the increase in risk‐taking incentives by bank managers and stockholders following these transactions. This paper empirically investigates whether cross‐border bank M&As increase or decrease the risk of acquiring banks as captured by changes in acquirers' yield spreads. This paper also investigates how differences in the institutional environments between bidder and target countries affect changes in yield spreads following M&A announcements. The study finds that bondholders, in general, perceive cross‐border bank M&As as risk‐increasing activities, unlike domestic bank mergers. Specifically, on average, yield spreads increase by 4.13 basis points following the announcement of cross‐border M&As. This study also finds that these yield spreads are significantly affected by the differences in investor‐protection and deposit insurance environments between the transacting countries. However, the study does not find that the regulatory and supervisory environment in the home countries of the transacting parties significantly affects the changes in yield spreads. The overall evidence suggests that regulators should judge the relative environment in both the home and the host countries in evaluating the associated risks of an active multinational financial institution and in setting the sufficiency of the banks' reserve positions.     

The Reversing Weekend Effect: Evidence from the U.S. Equity Markets

The well-known weekend effect has been reversing in Major U.S. indices from late 1980s to late 1990s. The correlation between Monday and Friday returns also exhibited a declining trend, and fluctuated around zero in the 1990s. A power ratio method is developed to measure consistently the relative contribution of Friday and Monday returns to the return of the week in each individual year. The revealed dynamics of the anomaly explains why previous researchers report different or conflicting findings. The anomaly may not be necessarily related to firm size.     

我国基金投资者存在处置效应吗?——基于国内某大型开放式基金交易的研究

以基金为代表的机构投资者队伍在我国资本市场发挥着日益重要的作用,但有关基金投资者行为的研究还比较缺乏。本文利用国内某大型基金管理公司提供的基金投资者交易数据,运用生存模型研究了我国基金投资者的处置效应。实证结果显示我国基金投资者表现出明显的处置效应,同时,我们还发现男性投资者和投资经验丰富的投资者相对表现出较低程度的处置效应。进一步的研究发现投资者的处置效应是非理性的,它减少了基金投资者的投资收益。     

Messages in online stock forums and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China

Online stock forums allow investors to share information and exchange opinions, which facilitates the incorporation of firm-specific information into prices and reduces stock price synchronicity. However, prior research presents mixed evidence as to the value of messages in online forums. Using the information of the Eastmoney Guba online forum in China, we find a causal and negative relation between Guba messages and stock price synchronicity. The finding is robust after accounting for media reports and firm fixed effects and using both an instrumental variable analysis and an experimental design that exploits exogenous changes in the authenticity of Guba messages. We find the impact of Guba information is attributed to its roles in both information dissemination and investor interaction and is more pronounced for messages with a negative narrative tone. Additional tests suggest Guba messages improve firm information disclosure quality, reduce stock price crash risk and decrease stock return volatility synchronicity.     

省思与规制:我国跨境期货交易法律困境及应对

我国推进期货市场走出去及国际化战略须以跨境期货交易法律机制构建为前提。文章通过厘定跨境期货交易内涵边界及监管正当性,省思主要法律困境及应对思路,提出应致力于跨境期货交易立法监管理念创新,确立跨境交易监管认同机制,提升跨境期货衍生品交易经纪能力,适度扩大衍生品跨境投资参与主体范围,逐步取消QDII投资品种限制,并从跨境期货交易运行保障、立法监管、风险控制以及解纷机制等方面建构系统法律保护体系,切实保障跨境交易整体性金融安全。     

Day Trader Behavior and Performance: Evidence from Taiwan Futures Market

By using a unique data from the Taiwan futures market to identify each trader’s trading records and focusing on the high-frequency day traders who trade at least 90 days over the sample year, this study closely examines their behaviors and performance. Day traders’ performances are “risk-adjusted” and analyzed to identify behavioral biases and the resulting impact on performance. There is no evidence found that trading too much is detrimental to investment performance. The high-frequency day traders are more aware of the danger of behavioral biases and are as a result less prone to the disposition effect. Contrary to expectations, day traders in my study are shown to be non-loss averse. Most of our sample except for the highest performance quintile follow a momentum strategy.     

Forecasting Bull and Bear Markets: Evidence from China

This article extends previous empirical research to forecast Chinese bull and bear stock markets by using three types of binary probit time series models, which are static, autoregressive, and dynamic autoregressive models. This study shows that the dynamic auto regressive model performs the best both in- and out-of-sample. The inflation and market return variables significantly affect the market forecast. The dynamic autoregressive model has successfully forecast the bull and bear markets since 2007. The investment strategy based on this model performs better than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, especially after the Chinese government reformed the non-tradable shares in 2005.     

Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China

Using the Chinese stock market data from 1997 to 2013, this paper examines the “Sell in May and Go Away” puzzle first identified by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002). We find strong existence of the Sell in May effect, robust to different regression assumptions, industries, and after controlling for the January or February effect. However, part of the puzzle is subsumed by the seasonal affective disorder effect. We then construct a trading strategy based on this puzzle, and find that it outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy and could resist the market downside risk during large recession periods.     

Financial market spillovers and macroeconomic shocks: Evidence from China

With the development of China’s financial reform, Chinese financial markets have become closely linked. The cross-market spillover effect of financial risks is at the core of systemic risks. This paper’s marginal contributions include (1) a new method is proposed based on structure learning for Bayesian networks to measure the multilateral spillover effect of a multiasset financial system. Additionally, this paper discusses (2) the macroeconomic mechanism behind the linkage of financial markets. The empirical results show that (1) the linkages between financial markets significantly exist, (2) uncertainty and negative macroeconomic shocks enhance the spillover effect in financial markets, and (3) the impact of negative macroeconomic shocks on the spillover effect of the financial market is weakened at the high economic growth stage.     

The Reversal of the Monday Effect: New Evidence from US Equity Markets

This article re-examines the Monday effect in the US stock market from 1964–1999 using daily returns from three large-cap indexes and two small-cap indexes. In the period before 1987, Monday returns are significantly negative in all five US stock indexes, confirming previous empirical findings. In the post-1987 period, we uncover a significant reversal of the Monday effect in the large-cap indexes (NYSE, S&38;P500 and DJCOMP), since Monday returns are significantly positive. Furthermore, significant differences in the persistence and reversal of the Monday effect are found between large-cap and small-cap stock indexes.     

Entry Mode Choice and Performance: Evidence from Taiwanese FDI in China

This paper examines entry mode choices between wholly owned subsidiaries (WOSs) and joint ventures (JVs) and the impact on performance for Taiwanese foreign direct investment in China. Taiwan and China share common cultural traits, so Taiwanese investors inherently prefer WOSs because these investors are acquainted with local conditions in China. This paper shows that even if WOSs are a natural choice, transaction cost theory is applicable in explaining the adoption of JVs by Taiwanese firms when investing in China. Firms that choose WOSs generally have higher sales growth and superior profitability. However, the smaller the subsidiary and the less experienced the firm, the more likely that JVs will have better performance.     

Digital transformation and trade credit provision: Evidence from China

Trade credit is essential for enterprises in business activities. Given the current wave of digitalization, it is important to explore how digital transformation affects trade credit provision. Based on data on Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2012 to 2019, we empirically examine the relationship between digital transformation and trade credit provision. We find that digital transformation significantly increases trade credit provision. The mechanism of the relationship is an increase in short-term bank credit. We further examine the heterogeneity of firms’ supply capacity and willingness, and find that the relationship is more significant among non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises with greater financing constraints and fierce market competition, and enterprises located in provinces that have low social trust than among other types. This paper extends the study of the economic consequences of firms’ digital transformation and the influencing factors of trade credit provision.     

影响跨境贸易人民币结算发展的宏观经济因素实证分析

我国跨境贸易人民币结算起步较晚,发展过程中存在着许多问题。国内对跨境贸易人民币结算这一问题的研究主要集中在发展存在的问题及风险,对结算参与微观主体意义,以及对外贸经济的推动作用几个方面,基本停留在微观研究层面,而对宏观层面影响因素的研究不足。从宏观层面上研究影响跨境贸易人民币结算的经济因素,分析对外贸易、外汇储备、汇率、货币供给等宏观经济变量对跨境贸易人民币结算发展的影响,将有利于厘清人民币国际化发展的内生动力,对未来人民币国际化的发展起到重要的政策指导作用。     

Flypaper Effect and Sluggishness: Evidence from Regional Health Expenditure in Italy

In Italy, public expenditure reduction is achieved through a revision of social security and health care programs. In particular, public health expenditure control has been implemented through a reform that imposes more stringent budget rules to local governments and a considerable reduction in grants-in-aid from the central government. This paper investigates empirically whether the response to this decrease in categorical lump-sum grants from the central to local governments results in an asymmetric response to intergovernmental grants. Hard budget and soft budget constraint hypotheses are estimated by using a sample of cross-sectional and time observations covering the 20 Italian regions over the period 1989–1993. The main finding is the existence of a standard and a super flypaper effect in both models. The introduction of the soft-budget constraint hypothesis results in a stronger effect of grants and a lower response of own resources which shows that local governments prefer to incur some deficit instead of reducing health care expenditure.     

Reverse innovation and firm value in emerging markets: Evidence from China

Reverse innovation (RI) patents, which apply to intellectual property that is created in an emerging country but patented in a developed country, are better representatives of innovation value than domestic patents in emerging economies. We argue that RI patents contribute to firm value by proxying for the private value of innovation, generating product market value, and signalling firms’ capabilities. Using a sample of Chinese-listed companies, we find RI patents positively relate to firms’ short- and long-term market value. This effect is stronger for firms with high innovative intensity and managerial ability. We also explore the mechanisms behind the relationship between RI and firm value. We demonstrate that, in addition to the domestic patent functions of creating value and capturing innovation rent, RI patents can further leverage firm value by signalling firm quality to customers and investors in developed markets, a function that is unique to RI patents.     

Institutional Investment and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from REITs

Many studies have hypothesized that the turn-of-the-month effect is caused by institutional investment. However, there is little evidence to support this hypothesis. This study provides an empirical test that measures the impact of the level of institutional investment on the turn-of-the-month effect using a sample of REITs over the period 1980 to 2004. We find that a significant change in the turn-of-the-month effect occurred following the Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1993 which relaxed the requirements on the level of institutional investment in REITs. The evidence suggests that the dramatic rise in institutional holdings can account for a good part of this change. However, the impact of institutional investment may not be as large as some researchers have suspected. There is no evidence to suggest that institutional investment impacts returns on the day when the turn-of-the-month effect is most pronounced, suggesting that this calendar anomaly is not caused exclusively by institutional investors in the market.

Entrepreneurship and household portfolio choice: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey

The efficient allocation of household assets is important for household wealth and entrepreneurial activities. However, there is scarce evidence on how entrepreneurial activities influence household financial decisions. We use a simple model to characterize the impact of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice and the two underlying channels—the diversification effect and the risk substitution effect. We also empirically examine the impact of entrepreneurship using data from the 2013, 2015, and 2017 waves of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The empirical results show that entrepreneurship significantly decreases both household risky market participation and risky asset holding. These findings are robust to alternative measurements of key variables, different model specifications, and Lewbel’s two-stage estimators. This study also verifies the co-existence of both the diversification and risk substitution effects. In particular, the net effect of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice varies between urban and rural areas due to the different offsetting results between the two effects.     

Religious atmosphere and the cost of equity capital: Evidence from China

The cost of equity capital (ICC) is a crucial component of investment decisions and corporate performance evaluations. This study explores the effect of a region’s religious atmosphere on ICC and finds that ICC tends to be lower when stronger religious atmosphere is created. We further use the mediation effect method to clarify the specific channel through which religious atmosphere reduces ICC, and find that earnings quality, corporate investment efficiency and corporate social responsibility partially mediate the effect of religious atmosphere on ICC. Moreover, the relationship between religious atmosphere and ICC is more pronounced in firms with stronger external law environments and higher audit quality, indicating that formal institutions and religious tradition complement each other.