Editors’ Introduction to the Special Issue

In February 2019, the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (JMCB) turned 50. The editors of the journal decided to celebrate this anniversary with two conferences, reflecting the two broad areas that the journal covers. A first conference on “Financial intermediation, regulation and economic policy” was held at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt/Germany on March 28–29, 2019, and addressed topics in the credit and financial intermediation fields. A second conference addressed topics in the macro-economic and monetary fields, and took place at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 30–31, 2019. This Special Issue displays the best contributions to the first conference. The contributions to the second celebratory conference are published in a separate Special Issue.     

全球金融危机前后的国际储备比较研究

本文通过评估全球金融危机（GFC）和结构变化对于国际储备（IR）积累模式的影响,认为发展中国家和发达国家对于国际储备的需求模式呈现不同态势,一国国际储备的合适水平并不是一成不变的,其决定因素会随着全球经济发展产生变化。同时,在对国际储备的历史模式分析的基础上,本文对国际储备预测结果与汇率变动之间可能存在的联系进行了研究。     

Financial Integration in Asset and Liability Holdings in East Asia

In this article, we examine the evolution of intra-East Asian financial integration from 2001 to 2013. Most existing studies on this topic look primarily at asset holdings; we examine liability holdings as well. Using the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data for equities, long-term debt, and short-term debt, our analysis generally supports the conventional wisdom that East Asian countries are more financially integrated with global financial centers than they are with each other. This is true for both asset holdings and liabilities and is confirmed by an econometric analysis based on financial gravity equations. However, the gap between global integration and regional integration has narrowed for asset holdings over time but not for liability holdings. The results of additional econometric analysis indicate that diversification of liability holdings can mitigate financial instability due to global financial shocks. More precisely, diversification was associated with smaller exchange rate depreciation during the quantitative easing taper tantrum of 2013. These results point to a possible benefit from strengthening regional financial integration. Deeper regional integration would reduce dependence on global financial markets for funding and hence vulnerability to global shocks.     

量化宽松政策的溢出效应分析

摘要：本文探讨了与美联储及其货币政策相关的四个问题,包括量化宽松政策对新兴市场国家的影响、美联储在为国际金融市场提供流动性方面的作用、量化宽松政策与货币操纵以及国际贸易与国际资本管制等,并提出新兴市场国家应通过政策调整应对量化宽松政策、增加对国际货币基金组织的资金投入及推动双边投资和自由贸易谈判等政策建议。     

国际资本流动理论回顾：一个文献综述

国际资本流动会对一国的经济产生重要的影响。文章通过梳理从古典经济学到现代经济学200多年关于国际资本流动的成因理论,并从利率、汇率因素,政治因素,资产组合因素,货币政策因素以及国际货币危机因素五个方面对国际资本流动理论进行分类总结,通过对不同学说成因的阐述,得出国际资本流动理论的研究展望：金融衍生工具将会成为国际资本流动的主要载体;国际资本流动的参与者将发生较大变化;对新兴国家资本流动的研究。     

Responding to QE taper from the receiving end

This paper analyses the spillovers of quantitative easing (QE) and their taper in India, as there could be country-specific nuances that qualify the inferences thrown up by cross-country studies, and therefore, can enrich and empower the on-going debate. Using a combination of event study analyses, generalized method of moments and VAR estimates, it finds that QEs have significantly altered monetary conditions in India. Among the QEs, QE1 had the largest impact and taper announcement had a strong negative impact, with the spillovers working mainly through the portfolio rebalancing channel, followed by the liquidity channel. Going forward, emerging economies are likely to take into account these spillovers in the conduct of monetary policy, with implications for both policy autonomy and global welfare.     

美国第二轮量化宽松货币政策的影响及中国对策

美联储第二轮量化宽松货币政策预计对美国经济的刺激作用有限,并会对其他国家特别是新兴市场带来较严重的负面溢出效应。其中,美元泛滥可能引发较为严重的通货膨胀,并刺激贸易保护主义抬头。中国需要采取＂堵疏结合、攻防有序＂的手段,严格监控风险度高的短期流动资金,将长期资金流入有效疏导到金融短板加以利用,力保经济平稳较快发展。同时,应加强与国际社会的协作,对美国量化宽松政策形成一定的制约。     

金融稳定在英国的发展及其对我国的启示——从北岩银行说起

本文以北岩银行挤兑案例为研究对象,在系统回顾事件发生、处置过程的基础上,分析了英国金融稳定框架中存在的缺陷,描述了英格兰银行维护金融稳定的实践和启示以及后金融危机时期金融稳定的新发展,进而对完善我国的金融稳定框架提供借鉴。     

我国短期跨境资本极端流动测度与影响因素研究——基于CDF模型的实证分析

众所周知,跨境资本无序流动容易诱发金融危机,相对于平常流动,极端流动与金融危机发生的关系更加密切。通过测算,短期资本是影响我国跨境资本流动形势的重要因素,因此我们需要对短期资本极端流动进行有效管理。本文进一步测算了我国短期跨境资本净流入的极端波动情况,运用累积分布函数模型分别分析影响激增和急停发生概率的宏观因素,同时通过回测验证了模型具有一定的预测能力,最后根据实证结果提出针对短期跨境资本极端流动实施管理的政策建议。     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Institutional Investors and the QE Portfolio Balance Channel

The operation of the portfolio balance channel has been emphasized by monetary policymakers as a key channel through which quantitative easing (QE) policies work. We assess whether the investment behavior of insurance companies and pension funds in the United Kingdom during the global financial crisis was consistent with such an effect by analyzing both sectoral and institution‐level data. Our results suggest QE led to institutional investors shifting their portfolios away from government bonds toward corporate bonds but did not lead to a shift into equities.     

经济全球化背景下的日本金融监管体制改革

金融监管的理念及监管体制顺应经济发展要求而不断地演变。在金融全球化背景下,日本逐步形成了监管权高度集中却又不失灵活性的金融监管体制,监管体制改革是政府与金融体系博弈的结果。在经历2008年国际金融危机后,实践证明日本的金融监管体制改革是有效的。中国在今后的金融全球化过程中可以供鉴日本金融监管体制改革的经验。     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机发生在金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整.金融层面的原因在于次贷危机,金融创新过度,金融衍生产品泛滥,美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处,金融监管不力、缺失.从经济层面分析,美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因,全球经济失衡是2007年金融危机爆发的深层原因,金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果.制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济,美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系.     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机起源于金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整。金融层面的原因在于次贷危机．金融创新过度,金融衍生产品泛滥,美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处．金融监管不力、缺失。从经济层面分析,美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因．全球经济失衡是金融危机爆发的深层原因,金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果。制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济,美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系。     

全球金融危机处置中的中国策略

全球金融危机是美国国内经济的失衡和特里芬困境作用的必然结果,反映了全球化对国际统一货币的需求与主权国家货币行使世界货币职能矛盾的不可调和性.因此,金融危机是美元滥发与美国国内经济承受力之间矛盾被迫调整的结果,因而危机爆发具有必然性.然而美国继续使用透支信用,发行国债,向市场注入流动性来治理危机,这无疑是饮鸠止渴.从这个角度看,国际金融体系的重构将不以美国意志为转移,中国必须要利用这场金融危机所造成的国际金融与经济秩序调整的契机,提高自身在国际金融中的地位及话语权.     

美国次贷危机与金融制度重构

美国次贷危机暴露出的种种问题表明,系统性风险的来源已经发生了变化,而金融基础制度的安排,无论是国际金融风险监测预警框架,还是监管制度、会计标准和评级体系,却未跟上金融市场的发展。为了恢复投资人信心,提升金融市场效率,亟需重构金融制度。