Toward the Development of a Global Financial Safety Net or a Segmentation of the Global Financial Architecture?

This article examines the prospects for the development of a comprehensive global financial safety net (GFSN). It discusses the optimal layout of the GFSN, comprising the International Monetary Fund, regional financing arrangements (RFAs), as well as bilateral or multilateral central bank swap arrangements, and the relationship between these. It then briefly reviews and appraises the current structure and functioning of these different layers of the GFSN and discusses the need and scope for strengthening cooperation between RFAs and the IMF. It argues that the GFSN is still very patchy and there is little reason to expect significant progress in better collaboration between RFAs and the IMF as long as the latter’s governance structure is not significantly revamped. Indeed, risks are that the GFSN will become even more fragmented with the further development of the European Stability Mechanism, and the emergence of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement. To prevent a further fragmentation of the GFSN, substantial governance reform of the IMF is urgently needed.     

经济全球化背景下的日本金融监管体制改革

金融监管的理念及监管体制顺应经济发展要求而不断地演变。在金融全球化背景下,日本逐步形成了监管权高度集中却又不失灵活性的金融监管体制,监管体制改革是政府与金融体系博弈的结果。在经历2008年国际金融危机后,实践证明日本的金融监管体制改革是有效的。中国在今后的金融全球化过程中可以供鉴日本金融监管体制改革的经验。     

近期美元逆市走强的原因分析

近期,在全球金融危机、经济衰退的的背景下,美元逆市走强。该文对其背后的原因进行了多层次的分析,认为从表面上看,美元逆市走强是美元需求增速高于供给增速的结果,深层原因则基于美元的国际地位和美国较强的政治经济军事实力,也可能有一定的战略意图。因此,预计近期美元将维持强势,但在恐慌稳定之后可能转为下跌。     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机发生在金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整.金融层面的原因在于次贷危机,金融创新过度,金融衍生产品泛滥,美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处,金融监管不力、缺失.从经济层面分析,美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因,全球经济失衡是2007年金融危机爆发的深层原因,金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果.制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济,美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系.     

全球金融危机成因的综合反思

2007年金融危机起源于金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家，是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的，是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整。金融层面的原因在于次贷危机．金融创新过度，金融衍生产品泛滥，美国金融体系存在诸多不完善之处．金融监管不力、缺失。从经济层面分析，美国国内经济失衡是危机爆发的基础原因．全球经济失衡是金融危机爆发的深层原因，金融危机是市场经济周期运行的必然结果。制度层面的原因主要包括过度干预经济，美国模式的技术缺陷和不合理的国际货币体系。     

Linkages between Indian and US financial markets: impact of global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis

This paper examines inter-linkages between Indian and US equity, foreign exchange and money markets using the vector autoregressive-multivariate GARCH-BEKK framework. We investigate the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) and Eurozone debt crisis (EZDC) on the conditional volatility and conditional correlation estimates derived from the multivariate GARCH model for Indian and US financial markets. Our results indicate that there is significant bidirectional causality-in-mean between the Indian stock market returns and the Rs./USD market returns, and significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from the US stock market returns to the Indian stock market returns. As regards volatility spillovers, we find that volatility in the Indian stock market rises in response to domestic as well as US financial market shocks but Indian financial market shocks do not impact the US markets. Further, impact of the recent crisis episodes on the covariance matrix is found to be significant. We find that volatility in the Indian and US financial markets significantly amplified during GFC. The conditional correlations across asset markets were significantly accentuated in the wake of the two crisis episodes. The impact of GFC on cross-market conditional correlations is higher for majority of the asset market pairs in comparison to the EZDC.     

欧洲债务危机影响全球金融市场

2011年12月,国际清算银行（BIS）发布季度报告,指出欧债危机已成为影响全球金融市场的主要因素。文章结合这一报告从全球增长预期与货币政策应对、欧债主权债融资形势、欧洲银行融资及清偿力状况、全球溢出效应等多个视角系统而具体地回顾了2011年四季度以来欧债危机形势的演变及影响,以期为投资者分析与展望2012年全球金融市场前景提供参考。     

全球金融危机处置中的中国策略

全球金融危机是美国国内经济的失衡和特里芬困境作用的必然结果,反映了全球化对国际统一货币的需求与主权国家货币行使世界货币职能矛盾的不可调和性.因此,金融危机是美元滥发与美国国内经济承受力之间矛盾被迫调整的结果,因而危机爆发具有必然性.然而美国继续使用透支信用,发行国债,向市场注入流动性来治理危机,这无疑是饮鸠止渴.从这个角度看,国际金融体系的重构将不以美国意志为转移,中国必须要利用这场金融危机所造成的国际金融与经济秩序调整的契机,提高自身在国际金融中的地位及话语权.     

全球稳定币的系统性风险:监管挑战与应对

2008年次贷危机至今,全球宏观审慎监管框架始终着眼于防范传统金融机构的系统性风险,却忽视了新兴的全球稳定币及其所引发的支付方式变革.全球稳定币诱发系统性风险的路径不仅包括因为替代法币支付功能从而加剧金融功能的脆弱性,还包括加深金融结构集中度与金融网络复杂性.同时,全球稳定币给既有的“宏观审慎监管”框架造成监管信息滞后...     

Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks

While most OECD countries have been rather successful in reducing risks to human lives, health, and the quality of the environment, the record for new global risks such as climate change, pandemics, financial breakdowns, and social inequality is much less convincing. This is the challenge of systemic risks. Since the global financial crisis, it has received rapidly growing attention. However, considerable conceptual confusion mars research on and practical responses to this challenge. We undertake an effort of conceptual clarification, starting with the paradigmatic example of the financial crisis. This leads to a view of global systems as involving an interplay between micro- and macrodynamics internal to the system, with the system simultaneously interacting with its environment. Such dynamics typically show periods of stability, punctuated by situations opening up several possible futures. Alternative global futures, like other prospects, constitute risks for an agent if she considers some of these futures as less desirable than others. Agents may have lexicographic preferences over futures they would like to avoid, so as to consider some futures as just undesirable, but others as catastrophic. If an agent expects some of the relevant futures at a bifurcation point of a global system to be catastrophic in this sense, they are faced with a systemic risk.     

未来20年国际金融格局演进的推动因素与新特征

肇始于美国的全球金融危机凸显旧有国际金融秩序的弊端,并加快了全球经济重心格局的演变,势必对未来国际金融格局产生重大影响。该文指出,受全球经济重心转移、全球化浪潮、人口老龄化差异以及技术革命推动金融周期演变这四大主要因素的推动,未来10～20年国际金融格局的新特征主要表现在：国际金融力量对比、国际移民与金融资本流动的模式将发生新变化;在金融业发展新周期中,银行业进入平稳发展阶段。     

全球金融危机后的场外金融衍生品市场变革

后金融危机时代的全球场外衍生品市场正处于深刻变革之中，各国政府、监管部门和金融行业改革场外衍生品市场的一系列举措对我国也有着重要的借鉴意义。文章对金融危机以来全球场外衍生品市场发展改革的情况进行了整理研究，并结合我国实际提出相关建议。     

全球金融危机下的人民币国际化路径研究

2008年全球金融危机使改革以美元为核心的国际货币体系成为共识,这也为人民币实现区域化、国际化开创了一个历史契机。本文认为,应以人民币债券为突破口,推动香港成为人民币离岸金融中心,推动人民币成为区域储备与投资货币,实现区域化;在此过程中,香港应首先成为人民币国际结算中心,而后建立成清算型的人民币离岸中心,为人民币、港币、澳币事实上的一体化及人民币国际化奠定基础。     

The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR

We study the changing international transmission of financial shocks over the period 1971–2012. Global financial shocks are measured as unexpected changes of a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI), developed by Hatzius et al. (2010). We model the FCI jointly with a large international data set through a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented VAR and find that financial shocks have a considerable impact on growth in the nine countries considered. Moreover, financial shocks during the global financial crisis are found to be large by historical standards. They explain approximately 20% of GDP growth variation on average over 2008–9, compared to an average of 5% prior to the crisis.     

Credit Crunch and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities

Through the lens of a DSGE model, I find that financial shocks in conjunction with downward nominal wage rigidities (DNWR) are important features in explaining the degree of asymmetry that U.S. business cycles exhibit. Financial shocks are constructed as residuals of the borrowing constraint faced by firms in a similar fashion to Jermann and Quadrini (2012). The effects of these shocks on aggregate quantity variables are amplified by DNWR, especially during the global financial crisis. Moreover, my model explains a large part of the upward shift in the labor wedge that occurred during this recession.     

Financial regulation: rising to the challenge

This paper discusses major initiatives from regulation in global financial markets in response to the current crisis. From the perspective of emerging markets a few issues of significance may include: whether shortcomings in innovations in structured financial market products will limit the scope of their development in the emerging markets, and restrict the scope of financial growth? Could more flows be expected to emerging markets from Western banking centres looking for productive opportunities? Are there opportunities for emerging markets finance to invest in good companies with strong balance sheets that are available at relatively cheap valuations. Will the Middle East emerge as a power centre in global finance?     

金融危机启示:金融一体化监管趋势下的保险监管

任何一次危机的爆发都是风险释放的过程,研究危机更重要的是关注风险的积累过程。因此,分析危机前的风险积累过程,查找危机产生的原因,对防范和化解危机具有现实意义。本文通过对新近发生的美国次贷危机进而延伸到对10年前亚洲金融危机分析,以及全球金融一体化监管最新演进趋势的借鉴,论述我国保险监管组织架构的未来展望。     

The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation

This paper analyses the recent global financial crisis in the context of the dual processes of market development and regulation. It discusses how, in the absence of a globally integrated financial framework, past and present regulations and interventions in reaction to national and global financial crises did not resolve the cross border regulatory arbitrage. The paper discusses how crises often lead to the emergence of new national and international institutions. It also analyses the proposed “new global framework” that needs to be in place if the policy recommendations contained in the G20 communiqué are going to be effectively implemented. The paper argues that unless international agreements are ratified by all nations and become part of national rules and laws, the presence of regulatory arbitrage and the lack of adequate cross border information and data may prevent the global economy from addressing the underlying causes of the recent global financial crisis. The paper also discusses the evolution of central banks and their new role in contributing to global financial stability. The paper argues that the recent global financial crisis has provided a unique opportunity to go beyond economic data and attempt to capture cross border financial data and other information that could assist international and national institutions to measure and manage financial risk more effectively. Finally, the paper discusses “too big to fail” and argues that only an internationally integrated financial system will make large banks global, both when operational and in the event of insolvency.     

冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示

在全球金融危机的冲击下,冰岛成为第一个陷入困境而向IMF求助的发达国家。该文分析了冰岛金融危机的起因及教训,认为冰岛危机是自身经济发展失衡、金融过度膨胀且存在结构缺陷的后果;政府的金融监管与危机应对措施也负有重大责任。对其他国家都有着重要的警示意义。