Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account

We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world ‘saving glut’ as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current account and departs from the standard framework by introducing a three-parameter model of the subjective discount factor that depends on societal (per capita) variables that are external to household choices. When agents in the model are presented with U.S. and rest-of-world endowment data as the realization of the exogenous state vector, endogenously driven short-run international differences in subjective discounting that display increasing relative U.S. impatience create saving and current account imbalances that matches patterns observed in the data.     

The determinants and consequences of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic fluctuations in the determination of across-the-board trade restrictions in the U.S. economy.

The empirical results reported show that generalized trade intervention is most immediately affected by wealth transfer abroad through the trade balance and not by a slowing in employment growth. Furthermore, trade restrictions are associated with a decline in the stock market and aggregate employment.     

Evidence of creative destruction in the U.S. economy

Schumpeter discusses the importance of innovation and new firm entry in a capitalistic economy as a means to creatively destruct oligopolies and generate new economic wealth. He warns of R&D becoming the arena of professional engineers in large corporations; Schumpeter feared the obsolescence of entrepreneurship would result in an increasing concentration of wealth among large corporations and toward socialism.Using a longitudinal data base of U.S. corporations over the period 1961–1980, this paper statistically tests several aspects of Schumpeter's analysis. Overall our results give some support to Schumpeter's creative destruction hypothesis, though there exists some sensitivity to the measure of size used. We find most of the firms exiting the ranks of the largest 500 firms (as measured by assets) are those with ranks in the 401–500 range; there is also evidence of churning as the same firms enter and exit the top 500 over time. Additionally, we find that merger has gained prominence as the reason why firms exit the top 500. Among our conclusions is that further work is needed on the role of mergers in the growth-and decline-of entrepreneurial firms.     

Healthcare reform and its implications for the U.S. economy

U.S. healthcare is currently a poor value proposition in relation to its cost. This must change. Driven by the fundamental forces of financing, consumer preferences, and technology, the U.S. is heading for a profound revolution in healthcare, one that will affect not only the system itself but also the larger U.S. business community. This new healthcare system will create vast opportunities and commensurately large risks for healthcare innovators. The outcomes of the present healthcare reform debate will either liberate or further shackle these innovators. Reforms that depend on governmental controls are more likely to dampen innovation than those achieved through control by consumers, and given the profound ramifications of healthcare reform outcomes, policy makers would be well-advised to harness the forces of consumerism in fashioning reform.     

Why is the bishops' letter on the U.S. economy so unconvincing?

This paper evaluates the rhetoric of the U.S. bishops' pastoral letter on the U.S. economy from two perspectives. Is the letter convincing? Does it conform to the “conversational norms of civilization?” The paper argues that the bishops' letter fails by both standards because it ignores serious research on the U.S. economy, it misstates important facts about the economy, and it sneers at professional economists. The paper concludes that the bishops' letter will not be convincing to well informed readers.     

论美国国会与对外贸易法的制定与执行

在美国三权分立政体下,对外贸易法律的制定和执行是国会、总统交互作用的复杂过程。国会一方面通过授权总统扩大自由贸易;另一方面又建立完善的进口救济制度来平衡贸易保护主义的利益。国会还把相当的权力委托给国际贸易法院由其行使司法审查权,防止行政机关滥用授权。美国贸易政策的制订权往往是在行政部门和立法部门之间进行分配,法院通常奉行"司法克制"的态度,通常避免就国会和总统之间在对外政策领域的权力关系问题进行裁决。但其一旦决定介入,必然成为最终的决定性因素。     

Global pollution effects of U.S. protectionism

Between 1967 and 1986 the United States and other members of GATT implemented major reductions in tariff rates on manufactured goods. Our primary hypothesis is that beginning with the Kennedy Round, trade restrictions in the U.S. shifted in favor of high pollution industries as their competitive position declined. As a consequence, inefficient domestic producers were nurtured and, thanks to the original GSP from 1975 to 1985, developing country polluters were encouraged to produce dirty industry manufactures for export to the United States. It is likely that both groups benefitted at the expense of more efficient and less heavily polluting competitors in other industrialized countries.     

Value co-creation and social media: Investigating antecedents and influencing factors in the U.S. retail banking industry

This study seeks to examine and unearth antecedents to co-creation behaviours within a U.S. retail banking context. A critical aspect for marketing managers and academics alike, co-creation has a strong influence on tangible factors such as profit and intangible factors such as referrals, satisfaction and feedback. Antecedents were identified as trust, customer engagement and participation attitude whilst social media usage was a consumer characteristic identified as influencing co-creation. Data was collected from 489 U.S. retail banking customers via an online survey. The data was analysed via structural equation modelling. The findings indicate that customer engagement influences trust, co-creation and participation attitude. Participation attitude was found to influence trust and co-creation but trust had no direct effect on co-creation. The study further found that social media usage intensity influenced co-creation behaviours. The findings contribute in three ways. First, this is one of the first studies to scrutinise participation attitude in an attempt to explain co-creation behaviours for U.S. banks over social media. Second, identification of precursors to value co-creation has been ascertained in a U.S. retail banking social media context. Third, the study additionally contributes to the findings that social media usage has a moderating effect in value co-creation and offers a potential segmentation strategy.     

The Retail Travels of the U.S. Greenback: A Comparative Study of Currency Substitution Along the U.S.-Canadian and U.S.-Mexican Borders

This currency substitution study explores the extent of retail firm-level U.S. dollar acceptance in Canada and Mexico. Employing a stratified random sampling approach of retail business in the border region, results demonstrate that all Mexican firms (N = 300/300) and nearly all Canadian (N = 257/261) firms accept the U.S. dollar in retail transactions. Of greater interest is the difference between firms in the two countries in how acceptance of the U.S. dollar is operationalized. On average, U.S. dollar sales of Canadian border firms comprise just 3.4% of total sales whereas U.S. dollar sales of Mexican firms encompass 23.7% of total sales. Our results also indicate a stark contrast as to the effective exchange rate for U.S. dollar acceptance— Canadian firms typically charge a premium (2.1% on average) while 69.3% of Mexican firms transacted business at a discount (?0.8% on average). Additional analyses further refine the currency substitution distinctions between Canadian and Mexican firms in the sample including a logistical regression which reveals significant differences as to firm-level predictors of U.S. dollar acceptance (whether at a discount or premium).     

美国对外贸易的理念和货物贸易的基本格局

自由贸易是美国对外贸易的基本理念。贸易自由化是战后美国对外贸易政策的基本特征,原因在于贸易自由化每年给美国带来1万亿美元左右的收益。对美国货物贸易的基本格局可以从五个方面认识:美国是世界上进出口规模最大的国家;美国进口规模比出口规模对世界经济的影响更大;美国是世界上最大的贸易逆差国,享受了世界最多的物质财富;美国贸易条件的变动表明对外贸易格局有利于美国;美国进口规模扩大与产业结构升级的结合演变为美国结构性增长优势。     

U.S. immigration policy: Responding to domestic labor shortages and a global economy

Last October, Congress approved a major revision to U.S. laws governing legal immigration. Its objective was to respond to domestic labor shortages within the setting of the new global economy. Peter Rodino was instrumental in that bill%'s passage, and believes the U.S. executives must posses a working knowledge of our nation%'s immigration policies.     

Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy

This paper addresses the ability of central banks to affect the structure of interest rates. We assess the causal relationship between the short‐term Effective Federal Funds Rate (FF) and long‐term interest rates associated with both public and private bonds and specifically, the 10‐Year Treasury Bond (GB10Y) and the Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond (AAA). To do this, we apply Structural Vector Autoregressive models to U.S. monthly data for the 1954–2018 period. Based on results derived from impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, we find: a bidirectional relationship when GB10Y is considered as the long‐term rate and a unidirectional relationship that moves from short‐ to long‐term interest rates when AAA is considered. These conclusions show that monetary policy is able to permanently affect long‐term interest rates and the central bank has a certain degree of freedom in setting the levels of the short‐term policy rate.     

The U.S. Wine Industry

Business Economics -     

An Inquiry into the Effects of U.S. Multinationals on U.S. Intraindustry Trade

Abstract

This study is among the first to examine the relations and interrelations among variables that measure the activities of U.S. multinational enterprises and their affiliates through the use of data that has recently become available. None of the results seem to contradict, and a large number seem to corroborate many hypotheses of contemporary international trade and global marketing theory. An important finding is that a strong gross complementarity between the variables exists which results in the values of these variables increasing simultaneously. Hence, the levels of intraindustry and international trade also increase simultaneously. However, it is found that net substitution relations exists between a number of pairs of the variables considered.