Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account

We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world ‘saving glut’ as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current account and departs from the standard framework by introducing a three-parameter model of the subjective discount factor that depends on societal (per capita) variables that are external to household choices. When agents in the model are presented with U.S. and rest-of-world endowment data as the realization of the exogenous state vector, endogenously driven short-run international differences in subjective discounting that display increasing relative U.S. impatience create saving and current account imbalances that matches patterns observed in the data.     

Evidence of creative destruction in the U.S. economy

Schumpeter discusses the importance of innovation and new firm entry in a capitalistic economy as a means to creatively destruct oligopolies and generate new economic wealth. He warns of R&D becoming the arena of professional engineers in large corporations; Schumpeter feared the obsolescence of entrepreneurship would result in an increasing concentration of wealth among large corporations and toward socialism.Using a longitudinal data base of U.S. corporations over the period 1961–1980, this paper statistically tests several aspects of Schumpeter's analysis. Overall our results give some support to Schumpeter's creative destruction hypothesis, though there exists some sensitivity to the measure of size used. We find most of the firms exiting the ranks of the largest 500 firms (as measured by assets) are those with ranks in the 401–500 range; there is also evidence of churning as the same firms enter and exit the top 500 over time. Additionally, we find that merger has gained prominence as the reason why firms exit the top 500. Among our conclusions is that further work is needed on the role of mergers in the growth-and decline-of entrepreneurial firms.     

Healthcare reform and its implications for the U.S. economy

U.S. healthcare is currently a poor value proposition in relation to its cost. This must change. Driven by the fundamental forces of financing, consumer preferences, and technology, the U.S. is heading for a profound revolution in healthcare, one that will affect not only the system itself but also the larger U.S. business community. This new healthcare system will create vast opportunities and commensurately large risks for healthcare innovators. The outcomes of the present healthcare reform debate will either liberate or further shackle these innovators. Reforms that depend on governmental controls are more likely to dampen innovation than those achieved through control by consumers, and given the profound ramifications of healthcare reform outcomes, policy makers would be well-advised to harness the forces of consumerism in fashioning reform.     

Why is the bishops' letter on the U.S. economy so unconvincing?

This paper evaluates the rhetoric of the U.S. bishops' pastoral letter on the U.S. economy from two perspectives. Is the letter convincing? Does it conform to the “conversational norms of civilization?” The paper argues that the bishops' letter fails by both standards because it ignores serious research on the U.S. economy, it misstates important facts about the economy, and it sneers at professional economists. The paper concludes that the bishops' letter will not be convincing to well informed readers.     

论美国国会与对外贸易法的制定与执行

在美国三权分立政体下,对外贸易法律的制定和执行是国会、总统交互作用的复杂过程。国会一方面通过授权总统扩大自由贸易;另一方面又建立完善的进口救济制度来平衡贸易保护主义的利益。国会还把相当的权力委托给国际贸易法院由其行使司法审查权,防止行政机关滥用授权。美国贸易政策的制订权往往是在行政部门和立法部门之间进行分配,法院通常奉行"司法克制"的态度,通常避免就国会和总统之间在对外政策领域的权力关系问题进行裁决。但其一旦决定介入,必然成为最终的决定性因素。     

Global pollution effects of U.S. protectionism

Between 1967 and 1986 the United States and other members of GATT implemented major reductions in tariff rates on manufactured goods. Our primary hypothesis is that beginning with the Kennedy Round, trade restrictions in the U.S. shifted in favor of high pollution industries as their competitive position declined. As a consequence, inefficient domestic producers were nurtured and, thanks to the original GSP from 1975 to 1985, developing country polluters were encouraged to produce dirty industry manufactures for export to the United States. It is likely that both groups benefitted at the expense of more efficient and less heavily polluting competitors in other industrialized countries.     

The Retail Travels of the U.S. Greenback: A Comparative Study of Currency Substitution Along the U.S.-Canadian and U.S.-Mexican Borders

This currency substitution study explores the extent of retail firm-level U.S. dollar acceptance in Canada and Mexico. Employing a stratified random sampling approach of retail business in the border region, results demonstrate that all Mexican firms (N = 300/300) and nearly all Canadian (N = 257/261) firms accept the U.S. dollar in retail transactions. Of greater interest is the difference between firms in the two countries in how acceptance of the U.S. dollar is operationalized. On average, U.S. dollar sales of Canadian border firms comprise just 3.4% of total sales whereas U.S. dollar sales of Mexican firms encompass 23.7% of total sales. Our results also indicate a stark contrast as to the effective exchange rate for U.S. dollar acceptance— Canadian firms typically charge a premium (2.1% on average) while 69.3% of Mexican firms transacted business at a discount (?0.8% on average). Additional analyses further refine the currency substitution distinctions between Canadian and Mexican firms in the sample including a logistical regression which reveals significant differences as to firm-level predictors of U.S. dollar acceptance (whether at a discount or premium).     

美国对外贸易的理念和货物贸易的基本格局

自由贸易是美国对外贸易的基本理念。贸易自由化是战后美国对外贸易政策的基本特征,原因在于贸易自由化每年给美国带来1万亿美元左右的收益。对美国货物贸易的基本格局可以从五个方面认识:美国是世界上进出口规模最大的国家;美国进口规模比出口规模对世界经济的影响更大;美国是世界上最大的贸易逆差国,享受了世界最多的物质财富;美国贸易条件的变动表明对外贸易格局有利于美国;美国进口规模扩大与产业结构升级的结合演变为美国结构性增长优势。     

An Inquiry into the Effects of U.S. Multinationals on U.S. Intraindustry Trade

Abstract

This study is among the first to examine the relations and interrelations among variables that measure the activities of U.S. multinational enterprises and their affiliates through the use of data that has recently become available. None of the results seem to contradict, and a large number seem to corroborate many hypotheses of contemporary international trade and global marketing theory. An important finding is that a strong gross complementarity between the variables exists which results in the values of these variables increasing simultaneously. Hence, the levels of intraindustry and international trade also increase simultaneously. However, it is found that net substitution relations exists between a number of pairs of the variables considered.     

The U.S. Wine Industry

Business Economics -     

美国零售业态发展浅析

零售业态在美国得到了空前的发展,且已相当成熟,对美国业态的发展研究将会使我们从中受到启示:政府根据具体经济环境鼓励发展无店铺、杂货店、保健品店等多种业态,而且,在业态结构的管理上要进行优化,使之均衡发展,此外政府应该建立信息平台和预警体系,为零售业态健康发展提供保障。     

谈美国的经济现象与美元的财富效应

众所周知，美国是世界上经济实力最强的国家，同时也是贸易逆差最大的国家。那么，长期以来美国的巨额贸易逆差与经济增长却能同时并存，依然维持着美国经济的强势，这在世界上也是绝无仅有的经济现象。这里尽管原因很多，但从国际金融的角度分析，笔者赞同这样一种观点，即美元作为国际上流通量最大、流通范围最广的币种，其货币的特殊利益所带来的财富效应，已成为支撑美国经济发展的重要因素。现在，我们暂且不从理论上进行探讨，而只对美国经济现象的一系列数字加以分析，就会发现其中的奥妙，值得深入思考。在国际金融领域中，美国的国…     

美国购物中心的规模效益分析

通过分析美国购物中心的发展历程、规模结构和规模效益,发现,美国购物中心在零售业中占主导地位,2003年美国购物中心零售额比重为35．6%。尽管美国经济发达,消费水准很高,但购物中心的发展并不贪大和盲目攀比,购物中心以中小型为主体,平均单个购物中心出租面积规模为1．15万平方米/个,地区分布较为均衡。美国不同规模购物中心的单位面积效益差异不明显,“规模和效益成正比”的结论不能成立。     

The Structure of Trust in China and the U.S.

This article investigates the structure of trust in China and compares it with the U.S., using the 2000 and 2005 waves of the World Value Survey (WVS). We analyze two dimensions of trust – trust in people and trust in major companies. It is found that the level of trust has remained stable in China within the 5-year period. On the other hand, trust in major companies has declined dramatically in U.S. while trust in people has increased slightly. The structure of trust in companies is different from trust in people. For both countries, individuals with higher education tend to have a higher level of trust. Individuals who are divorced tend to have lower trust in people. Individuals who think that other people are fair are more likely to trust in people. Preference for competition has a positive effect on trust in major companies. On the other hand, some differences between the two countries are observed. Perception of fairness does not affect trust in major companies in China, while it has a positive effect in U.S. in year 2006. Preference for equality has a negative effect on trust in major companies in U.S. but no significant effect in China. The pattern of trust and its changes over time may reflect differences in market conditions in the two economies.     

The Impact of a Rising Dollar on the U.S. Economy

Since June 2014, the dollar has strengthened dramatically. The effects of such a rise—and its likely continuation—on the U.S. economy are many, complex, and often obscure and could affect a number of business decisions. In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of a 10 percent rise in the value of the dollar against all other currencies through the use of a macroeconometric model. They examine direct effects and the full range of indirect effects and find that through a number of negative feedback the indirect effects will significantly offset the direct effects on GDP, interest rates, and many other macroeconomic variables—including the value of the dollar itself.