会计信息可比性与盈余管理的关系研究

文章通过会计信息可比性与盈余管理(应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理)的相互关系研究,认识到两者存在着密切的联系:会计信息可比性显著影响盈余管理,当会计信息可比性增强时,真实盈余管理相应增加,而应计盈余管理则逐渐减少;在其他因素恒定的前提下,公司采用的应计盈余管理活动和真实盈余管理活动降低了公司过去会计报告盈余与将来会计报告盈余的可比性,甚至影响公司与同类公司会计报告的可比性,从而对会计信息可比性产生负面影响。     

分析师预测、投资机会与投资强度

以2008-2016 年沪深A 股上市公司为样本,实证检验了分析师盈余预测质量对企业投资 强度的影响,并考察了投资机会在盈余预测质量与投资强度之间的作用机制。结果表明,分析师 盈余预测质量（预测准确度和预测一致性）有助于提升企业投资强度,投资机会在盈余预测质量 影响投资强度的过程中存在部分中介效应;分析师预测对企业投资强度的影响在不同信息环境与 代理问题下存在显著差异,对于信息不对称程度高、代理成本高的企业,分析师盈余预测质量对 投资强度的影响更大;进一步研究表明,分析师盈余预测质量内部存在相互强化关系,预测一致 性能够加强预测准确度对投资强度的影响,分析师意见越一致,准确的分析师预测意见越易被企 业或投资者采纳。     

1998年的宏观经济评价和1999年的宏观经济预测

1998年：实事求是,客观公正,勿褒勿贬,不以8％成否论是非1999年：理智分析,勿乐勿悲,中位盘整,平均推进,保七争八宏观经济政策：灵活对应,积极稳健,“松”而不“胀”,“紧”而不“滞”     

财政政策、会计信息可比性与企业投资——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2007-2021年A股上市公司为研究样本,从宏微观交叉视角,考察不同财政政策下,会计信息可比性和企业投资之间的互动关系。研究发现：相比扩张的财政政策,紧缩的财政政策下的企业可能有更高的投资-现金流敏感性,降低企业投资水平,而会计信息可比性的提高能够有效改善紧缩财政政策下的企业投资水平。进一步分析表明,紧缩的财政政策下,提高非国有企业会计信息可比性更有助于企业投资水平的改善。对于提高宏观经济政策的调控效果和促进实体经济的健康发展都具有重要的现实意义。     

中国经济政策预测

中国经济政策的预测具有特别重要的意义。一是为经济政策的制订者提供中国经济政策运动的具体规律,使中国经济政策的制订逐步由必然王国走向自由王国;二是使各级各类的经济政策的执行者增加执行经济政策的自觉性和同步性;三是使国外海外的合作者和投资者消除疑虑,把握时机,果断地作出投资或合作的决策,从而在中国这个硕大的     

国家宏观经济政策取向与民族地区科技人才政策调整

文章分析了当前国家宏观经济政策取向与科技人才政策调整之间的辩证关系，并针对我国人才流失与人才闲置浪费的现状，强调民族地区科技人才政策必须配合国家宏观经济调控措施作适时调整的思路。这一思路是以科技开发为先导，将实现科技创新同实现就业与再就业的有机结合为取向，最终实现党和政府提出的“推进人才资源整体开发”、“实现人才工作协调发展”的人才强国战略目标。     

亚洲开发银行预测中国2005年宏观经济

对中国政策制定而言，一个不容回避的问题是如何降低经济的能源使用强度，因为中国生产1000美元的GDP，需要使用相当于超过3／4吨原油的能源。     

Accounting Policy Disclosures and Analysts' Forecasts

Using an international sample, I investigate whether the extent of firms' disclosure of their accounting policies in the annual report is associated with properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. Controlling for firm‐ and country‐level variables, I find that the level of accounting policy disclosure is significantly negatively related to forecast dispersion and forecast error. In particular, I find that accounting policy disclosures are incrementally useful to analysts over and above all other annual report disclosures. These findings suggest that accounting policy disclosures reduce uncertainty about forecasted earnings. I find univariate but not multivariate support for the hypothesis that accounting policy disclosures are especially helpful to analysts in environments where firms can choose among a larger set of accounting methods.     

Analyst Coverage and the Likelihood of Meeting or Beating Analyst Earnings Forecasts

This paper examines the relation between analyst coverage and whether firms meet or beat analyst earnings forecasts. We distinguish between whether a firm's reported quarterly earnings meet (i.e., equal or exceed by one cent) or beat (i.e., exceed by more than one cent) its consensus analyst earnings forecasts. We find a positive relation between analyst coverage and whether a firm meets or beats analyst forecasts. However, the more pronounced relation is that between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. Also, when we consider exogenous shocks to analyst coverage due to brokerage mergers or closures and conglomerate spinoffs, we continue to find a robust positive relation only between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. To shed light on the causal relation involved, we examine and find that greater analyst coverage is associated with a significantly larger market reaction to negative earnings surprises. We also document that firms with greater analyst coverage are more likely to guide analyst earnings forecasts downwards. Taken together, our evidence suggests that greater analyst coverage raises the pressure on managers to meet analyst earnings forecasts.     

会计政策选择与会计信息质量

随着我国企业会计与国际会计接轨,企业会计准则与会计制度赋予企业会计的选择权逐渐加大,会计工作中的职业判断事项不断增多。企业会计政策选择就是其中的一个重要内容,它贯穿于企业从会计要素确认到计量、记录、报告各环节的整个会计过程,它并不单纯是会计技术、方法问题,它是企业管理当局和会计人员处理、协调各利害关系的矛盾,分配经济利益的一项重要措施。对企业投资者、债权人及各关联方的相关决策都会产生重要影响。     

Accounting Comparability,Audit Effort,and Audit Outcomes

Accounting comparability among peer firms in the same industry reflects the similarity and the relatedness of firms’ operating environments and financial reporting. From the perspectives of “inherent audit risk” and “external information efficiency,” comparability is helpful for auditors in assessing client audit risk and lowers the costs of information acquisition, processing, and testing. I posit that the availability of information about comparable clients helps improve audit efficiency and accuracy. Empirical results show that comparability is negatively related to audit effort (surrogated by audit fees and audit delay). Moreover, comparability is negatively associated with the likelihood of audit opinion errors. These findings are robust to different specifications of regression models, particularly for the “endogeneity” issues due to the possible reverse causality that auditor style might influence client firms’ comparability. In sum, the study shows that accounting comparability enhances the utility of accounting information for external audits.     

Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This article discusses the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy when the ultimate goal is to maintain price stability and limit fluctuations in real income. It is argued that judicious interpretation of asset price movements can provide information about the risks of future macroeconomic imbalances, and that this information should be utilized in monetary policy decisions. Simulations results from both theoretical and empirical models support the conceptual argument. It is stressed that policy reactions to asset prices must not follow a mechanical rule, since the appropriate response depends on the underlying shock.     

宏观调控政策三箭齐发

对于地产商和境内外炒房族来说,今年9月第一周充分领教到了国家宏观调控政策的威力。从9月5—7日,宏观调控政策是三箭齐发,击中丁,炒房者的要害。     

中国宏观经济走势、潜在风险与政策选择

中国经济复苏强劲,但宏观运行也积累了不少风险,这包括:通货膨胀风险;资产价格上涨过快风险;潜在财政风险以及政策退出导致的不确定性风险。面对潜在风险,适当的政策选择是:以政策退出应对短期宏观波动风险,以结构调整化解中长期发展风险。     

Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

Accounting Comparability and Economic Outcomes of Mandatory IFRS Adoption

This study examines the associations between four economic outcomes of the 2005 mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and concurrent changes in two important accounting constructs, accounting comparability and reporting quality. My primary purpose is to evaluate the relative importance of cross‐country accounting comparability and firm‐specific reporting quality in explaining previously documented increases in Tobin's Q, stock liquidity, analyst forecast accuracy, and analyst forecast agreement following IFRS adoption. Given that improvements in both comparability and reporting quality are primary stated objectives of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), it is important to understand their relative roles in shaping the information environment of financial statement users following IFRS adoption. Using 1,861 first‐time adopters in 23 countries, I find that firms with a larger improvement in comparability have larger increases in Q, liquidity, forecast accuracy, and forecast agreement following adoption, relative to other adopters. In contrast, improvements in reporting quality around adoption appear to have only a second‐order effect that is generally limited to Q effects among those adopters with concurrent improvements in comparability. These results are robust to alternative design and variable specifications. Finally, I continue to find these results for samples restricted to countries with weaker pre‐adoption institutional environments and countries that did not initiate proactive financial statement reviews, indicating that strong institutions and regulatory improvements are not driving the results. Overall, my results suggest that improvements in cross‐country accounting comparability played an important role in the previously documented economic benefits that accrued to 2005 mandatory IFRS adopters.     

Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior*

Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sell‐side analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post‐analyst‐revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature.