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1.
王军 《科技和产业》2011,11(8):131-134
在金融危机中,美国财政部和美联储出台了一系列危机救助的货币政策。本文主要依据传统货币政策传导理论,对危机救助中货币政策工具的选择和采取何种路径对金融市场影响进行分析,以确定这些货币政策工具的有效性。  相似文献   

2.
通过分析金融危机对我国产生的机遇和挑战,提出坚持推进金融体制改革,及时调整货币政策和财政政策是预防及应对金融危机的不二法门。我们应该抓住机遇,进一步承担更大的责任,提升我国的国际地位,从而实现和平崛起。  相似文献   

3.
货币与财政政策后续效应评估:40次银行危机样本   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
马勇  陈雨露 《改革》2012,(5):24-32
以20世纪80年代以来40次重要的系统性银行危机为基础,对金融危机后的货币政策和财政政策选择进行实证评价。实证结果表明,"适度扩张"的货币政策和财政政策能产生相对较优的经济效果,应成为金融危机后的主要政策选择,但由于两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期,为避免持续和大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响,一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升,之前作为"反危机工具"出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐步淡出。  相似文献   

4.
This paper applies a structural vector autoregression analysis to quantify the impact of the global financial crisis on China. It is found that the impact is indeed sizeable: a 1-percent decline in economic growth in the USA, the EU and Japan is likely to lead to a0. 73-percent decline in growth in China. The article discusses whether the current measures of fiscal stimulus are adequate to offset the sharp decline in external demand Although there is little doubt that the massive fiscal stimulus will largely offset the significant shortfalls in external demand, the current growth pattern in China will be increasingly unsustainable in the long term. China "s reform cycles suggest that external shocks are often opportunities for structural reforms. Therefore, the crisis could also be a catulyst for rebalancing China 's economic structure so as to return the economy to a sustainable path.  相似文献   

5.
The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.  相似文献   

6.
    
Abstract

Unlike most studies on the effect of monetary policy on bank lending, this article intends to answer the question whether the tightening of monetary policy in Malaysia before and after the financial crisis in 1997 affected differently the commercial bank lending to various sectors of the economy. To achieve the objective, Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) method was used to generate impulse response function and variance decomposition to trace the impact of a shock in monetary policy on bank lending in Malaysia. The results show that a monetary policy tightening in Malaysia gives a negative impact on all the sectors. Analyzing sectoral responses to monetary shocks, evidence is found that some sectors are more affected than the others. The manufacturing, agricultural, and mining sector seems to decline more than the aggregate bank lending in response to interest rate shock.  相似文献   

7.
    
Using the structural vector autoregression model, we estimate the current responses of monetary policy to contemporaneous shocks from macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the People's Bank of China responded to inflation and output changes, but did not react to asset price fluctuations during the period from January 1997 to March 2010. The optimal monetary responses to exogenous shocks are also examined. It is revealed that using asset prices to formulate monetary policy would not help to improve monetary authorities' performance in lowering the volatilities of output growth and inflation while keeping output growth and inflation in their safety zones. The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in reacting to external shocks is also discussed.  相似文献   

8.
朱启铭 《改革与战略》2008,24(10):104-106
金融税制是一国管理金融活动的有关税收的法律法规的总和。金融税制影响金融市场效率和各类金融活动主体的行为,通过利率传导机制和信贷配给传导机制对货币政策效应产生影响。为保证货币政策能顺利传导,我国目前应进一步完善针对金融市场的流转税和所得税制度,对商业银行不宜取消现行的营业税或急剧降低营业税税率,应针对不同业务细化和完善相关的流转税制度。  相似文献   

9.
赵丹阳 《理论观察》2006,(4):177-178
发展票据市场,要与拓宽企业融资渠道、改善金融服务、促进商业银行转变经营方式、健全社会信用制度、完善货币政策传导机制的需要相适应,不断加强金融法制建设、合理规避票据风险、坚持真实贸易背景原则、发展票据市场工具、建立票据专营机构、建立票据业务信息系统、加快票据利率市场化进程。  相似文献   

10.
李哲敏   《华东经济管理》2010,24(4):75-79
面对全球性金融危机,各国政府采取了各种各样的救市政策。财政政策、货币政策和外汇政策的搭配使用使得以IS—LM—BP模型为核心的凯恩斯主义大显神威。尽管中美两国的救市政策无一例外地反映了凯恩斯主义的经济路径和政府干预的反自由主义理念,但依然存在不同之处。IS—LM—BP模型并没有过时,运用该模型分析两国救市政策的异同对于我国早日走出经济危机具有一定的理论意义。  相似文献   

11.
张磊 《改革与战略》2009,25(6):76-78
中央银行的货币政策引起实际经济变量的改变是通过货币政策传导机制实现的。而货币政策的传导机制包括金融传导领域和经济传导领域。其中金融传导是中央银行与金融中介相互影响和相互作用的过程。文章着重通过对金融传导领域中的执行主体、传导中介、市场基础和调节杠杆进行分析,来研究我国的货币政策传导机制。  相似文献   

12.
The recent financial market turmoil has initiated another search for insightful understanding of the interactions between the financial market and monetary policy. This paper explores these interactions in terms of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. We argue that evolving financial development, enhanced by the expansion of the financial market, has altered the conventional channel for monetary transmission in China. Analyzing marked changes in the financial landscape and taking into account policy regime shifts in China, the paper provides clear evidence showing that the financial market has become a new and important channel for transmission of monetary policy in China.  相似文献   

13.
    
This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that: (i) China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and (ii) market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.  相似文献   

14.
15.
朱瑾 《乡镇经济》2007,(12):51-53
新农村建设和金融体系的发展与完善需要农村金融体系的快速发展与完善,其核心是构建新型农村金融机构体系。促进农村金融体系建设的核心就是发展和完善农村金融机构,其基本途径是在对各金融机构市场功能进行明确界定的基础上,政府予以适当支持,而支持的最优手段是通过市场化的途径培育和提高它们的市场竞争能力。文章认为,央行的三大货币政策工具可以实现这一目标,并对三大工具提供支持的途径和操作方式进行了探索性的分析论证。  相似文献   

16.
邓毅 《特区经济》2009,(10):95-97
次贷危机对我国造成巨大影响,为保增长促内需,我国开始执行适度宽松货币政策。有必要研究货币政策的目标取向,措施的选择,分析产生的效果及在实施过程中应该注意的问题,使货币政策达到良好的效果。  相似文献   

17.
李斌 《改革》2010,(10)
实施应对金融危机的一揽子措施以来,各口径货币总量对CPI的预测能力明显下降,CPI回升速度显著低于依据历史经验测算出的货币增长对物价形成的压力。这一现象主要与货币供给结构变化有关。从信贷增长与内需在GDP增长中贡献度的关系来看,扩张性政策导致的信贷高增长并未明显超出内需扩张之所需,加之经济增长也并未超出其潜在水平,因此短期内没有产生明显的CPI通胀压力,但经济回升和货币信贷增长推升了通胀预期。鉴于通胀机理所发生的变化,宏观政策需要更多关注更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定,更多关注预期和环比数据变化以提高调控的前瞻性和有效性,同时要加强宏观审慎管理,多运用市场化和有弹性的政策工具实施调控。  相似文献   

18.
宋昭 《特区经济》2010,(2):100-102
美国次贷危机更多的是美国人的,但是经济的全球化以及金融自由化浪潮使世界与美国的关系越来越紧密,从随后危机的演变及事态的发展可知,各国并不可能在此次次贷危机中独善其身,也就不能作壁上观。笔者从金融监管的角度,分析了应对次贷危机的方案。  相似文献   

19.
李峰 《特区经济》2010,(1):89-90
由美国的次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机愈演愈烈,已经演变成一场席卷全球的经济危机,使以美元为主导的国际货币体系要面临严峻挑战,国际货币体系改革重新被提到议事日程上来。本文分析了当前国际货币体系存在的问题,并为国际货币体系改革提出了若干建议。  相似文献   

20.
Using a VAR model that includes survey data on households’ inflation expectations for Japan and the US, we investigate their determinants and influences on the economy and compare their properties in two countries. Short-term non-recursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous co-dependence between realized and expected inflation. We find that responding to changes in exogenous prices and to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. Compared with Japan, the effects of exogenous prices on inflation and inflation expectations in the US are not only large but also long lasting and shocks to expectations have self-fulfilling effects on inflation.  相似文献   

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