基于违约成本的银行信贷风险管理

银行贷款的风险管理是关系到整个金融系统稳定的重大问题。本文利用logit方法以及人民银行提供的信贷数据库,根据相关的变量建立模型,并分析了该模型对贷款违约的预测能力。与以前的研究不同,我们的研究着重考虑了违约成本在贷款决策中影响,给予一类、二类错误不同的权重,这样的预测模型能更好地符合银行实际操作的需求。本文的研究也可以作为银行内部风险管理的参考。     

Bailout Clauses and the Price of Credit: The Dutch Experience for Housing Corporations

The bulk of capital provided to Dutch housing corporations is explicitly guaranteed by a bailout clause. Using a dataset with loans provided by the largest Dutch public sector bank (BNG Bank), we find substantial evidence that this bailout clause has reduced interest rates by about 72 basis points. The annual benefits of reduced interest costs outweigh the costs of default. We also find that the interest rates for guaranteed loans are insensitive to the financial position of corporations. We therefore surmise that the bank relied on the bailout clause. Finally, the bailout clause for corporations (which guarantees individual loans) and the one for municipalities (which entirely protects municipalities from defaulting) lead to a similar reduction in interest.     

商业银行风险控制之贷款组合优化决策模型

商业银行贷款不能如期收回的风险是商业银行经营风险中最重要的一种风险,从组合的角度来考虑贷款风险的控制是一种行之有效的方法。贷款组合优化,是在综合考虑贷款收益和风险的前提下,从贷款对象中选择其中一组受益最高和风险最小的组合的过程。本文综合考虑商业银行已有的存量贷款和新增贷款,利用存量贷款和增量贷款的有机结合,构建贷款组合优化控制的0-1规划模型,用以控制商业银行贷款组合的总体风险。     

Information contents of collateral under heterogeneous borrower qualities on the bank loans market in China

We analyze the risk of default and provision of collateral for bank loans made to firms of varied credit qualities using a unique dataset obtained from a major state-owned commercial bank in China. Both high and low quality borrowers provide collateral more often than medium quality debtors do. Using models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneous borrower qualities, we find a positive relation between collateralization and risk of default for loans issued to debtors with low credit ratings. In contrast, collateral provided by debtors with high credit ratings is negatively associated with the risk of default. These results suggest that low quality borrowers may be required to provide collateral at the bank's request to mitigate moral hazard problem. On the other hand, high quality borrowers may provide collateral willingly to signal quality in order to mitigate adverse selection problem when competing for getting access to bank loans. Our findings shed new lights on different information contents of collateral on the bank loans market of China, and have important implications for banks in screening, contracting and monitoring the risk of commercial loans for clients with diverse credit qualities.     

衍生品定价中的模型风险研究的回顾与展望

随着金融衍生品的日益复杂化,衍生品定价过程中的模型风险越来越受到学术界与业界的重视。论文首先对模型风险的定义与度量的相关文献进行了回顾;然后对衍生品定价过程可能会产生模型风险的各个环节进行了综述,包括随机过程选择、估计方法选择、估计样本选择、定价理论范式选择、定价方法选择,并对其采用的理论、模型、方法进行了比较;最后对衍生品定价中各个环节的模型风险的共识和不足进行了总结,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。     

The Difference between Earnings and Operating Cash Flow as an Indicator of Financial Reporting Fraud*

This paper examines the relation between earnings and operating cash flow to derive and test an indicator of financial statement fraud. Accrual measurement concepts indicate that financial statement fraud should be associated with high levels of earnings relative to operating cash flow. We demonstrate that the excess of earnings over operating cash flow is extreme in most fraud cases in years immediately prior to the fraud discovery based on a sample of 56 fraud cases from 1978 to 1991. We compare the distribution of the earnings minus operating cash flow variable for fraud firms with that for a sample of 60,453 firm-years for firms listed on COMPUSTAT. We test a logistic regression model in which the discovery/nondiscovery of fraud is the dependent variable, and earnings minus operating cash flow is the explanatory variable. Other control variables are included in the model based on prior studies. Results are consistent with expectations derived from accrual measurement theory. We then examine the predictive ability of the model using our sample of fraud firms and a sample of nonfraud firms in the same four-digit SIC code industries. Observations for the fraud firms are for the fiscal year prior to the discovery of fraud. Observations for the nonfraud firms are for the same fiscal years as the fraud firms in the same industries. The predictive ability of the model, including the excess of earnings over operating cash flow, is substantially higher than the predictive ability of the model omitting this variable. We conclude that the earnings-operating cash flow relation provides important information for those interested in identifying financial statement fraud, especially when considered in conjunction with other factors associated with fraud risk.     

Target Date Defaults in a Public Sector Retirement Saving Plan

Little is known about whether employee retirement saving patterns change when public sector employers implement Target Date Funds (TDFs) as the default plan investment. We use administrative and survey data from a large government entity to track participation, contributions, and asset allocation impacts of TDF introduction. We show that those mapped into TDFs did not alter their holdings so that the reform resulted in higher equity shares, especially for women, younger workers, and low-seniority employees. The least risk-tolerant and financially literate employees held 12 percentage points more equity than previously. Moreover, defaulting public employees into TDF had a profoundly sticky effect on their subsequent investment behavior.     

The new main bank system

We develop a main bank model where the main bank decides whether or not to raise additional funds from the capital market to continue to invest in a borrowing firm when nonmain banks withdraw funds. We show that the threat of withdrawal of nonmain banks is more likely to force the main bank to perform efficiently in handling troubled loans, thereby preventing problems with zombie firms, if the potential cash flow (liquidation value) of the firm decreases (increases) relative to the amount funded by nonmain banks. The theoretical results provide both efficiency evaluations for the renewal of the main bank relation in Japan after the end of the 1990s and empirical implications for the renewed main bank system.     

Commercialization and mission drift: Evidence from a large Chinese microfinance institution

Front-line loan officers of microfinance institutions (MFIs) are important in acquiring information on potential borrowers and selecting them in accordance with the MFI's mission. We use a unique data set on loan officers and their loan portfolios from China's largest NGO microfinance institution to test whether officers' personal characteristics affect the size and quality of their loans. We study a period in which the institution shifted from reliance on government donations and subsidies to commercial sources of funding. Imposing more commercial incentives on loan officers could affect how they balance potentially competing objectives to serve the poor and pursue profitability. We find that loan officers who were formerly farmers or worked in local government were better able to maintain lending to poorer borrowers, without incurring substantially lower repayment rates on their loans. In short, it appears that the career backgrounds of loan officers did play a role in preventing mission drift.     

Outside Blockholders' Monitoring of Management and Debt Financing

Corporate governance mechanisms designed to alleviate manager‐shareholder agency conflicts can worsen shareholder‐bondholder conflicts. This study examines how one such corporate governance mechanism, monitoring by large outside shareholders, influences the choice between public and private debt. I conjecture and find that firms with higher outside blockholdings are inclined to choose bank loans over public debt when they borrow, consistent with the notion that banks are better monitors than public debt markets. I also find that bank loans carry less price protection than corporate bonds against increased agency risk associated with outside blocks. Corroborating the monitoring story, I document that bank loans contain more accounting‐based covenants and dividend restriction provisions for firms with higher outside blockholdings than for those with lower blockholdings. I find no such relation for public debt covenants. This supports that banks' monitoring of their loans counters the agency risk caused by blockholders. This study extends prior research that associates governance mechanisms with agency costs of debt, by incorporating lenders' differential monitoring mechanisms in the overall corporate governance system.     

Financial Intermediation Development and Economic Growth： Does the Chinese Counterexample Exist？

In terms of the degree-of-freedom of bank loan decision-making, the ratio of loans of private enterprises and individuals to total loans is used to measure the development of China ＇s financial intermediation. Applying generalized method of moments estimation developed for dynamic panel data models, the present paper finds that the effect of financial intermediation development on economic growth is positive and statistieally significant when controlling for other variables, such as human capital foreign direct investment, securitization and foreign trade. The empirical results indicate that the concept of the so-called Chinese counterexample in financial development is questionable. Financial system reforms, including encouraging banks to operate independently, reducing or eliminating mandatory loans, and maldngfinancial decision-making more market-oriented, are important for China＇s economic growth.     

基于XGboost模型的农业供应链金融信用风险测度研究

随着近年来农业供应链金融的发展,如何测度和控制农业供应链金融企业的信用风险变得愈加重要。选取76家农业上市企业为研究样本,选取了企业基本情况、盈利能力、营运能力、资金周转能力4个一级指标以及14个二级指标构建农业行业上市公司信用风险评估指标体系,对比分析XGboost模型和Logistic模型的信用风险评估结果。实践表明,两个模型都具有良好的预测能力,XGboost模型在性能和预测精度上略优于logistic模型。     

物流企业开展融资物流业务的运作模式及风险防范研究

融资物流是客户为了获得银行贷款,利用物流企业的物流信息和物流监管,对其处于流通中的商品、存货进行短期信贷的新的融资方式。作为一项新型业务,融资物流给物流企业带来了与以往不同的风险,认识并控制好这些风险是融资物流业务开展成功的关键。文章从融资物流概念的提出着手,分析了融资物流可运作的模式,即仓单质押、运输在途监管、保兑仓、信用证下货权质押和银行贷款等模式,探讨了物流企业开展融资物流业务存在的风险,并提出了相应的对策。     

Bank capital shocks and portfolio risk: Evidence from Japan

Despite the downward trend of land prices and the ex post low return on real estate loans, Japanese banks increased their lending to the real estate sector during the 1990s. We argue that this phenomenon can be explained by the risk-shifting incentives of banks and discover that banks with low capital-to-asset ratios and low franchise value chose high-risk assets such as real estate loans. Unlike previous studies, we show that the capital–risk relationship is non-linear and changes from positive to negative as franchise value falls. We also find that a capital adequacy requirement did not prevent risk-taking behavior of under-capitalized banks since they then just issued more subordinated debts to meet this requirement. In contrast, government capital injections led banks to reduce risky loans at the margin. Recapitalization by issuing subordinated debts helped banks recover their capital losses and mitigated the credit crunch, but consequently allowed them to increase their exposure to the real estate sector and worsened the bad loan problems.     

Trust and contracting with foreign banks: Evidence from China

We empirically investigate whether firms doing business in regions characterized as having high social trust receive preferential treatment on loan contractual terms by foreign banks. Tracing cross-border syndicated lending activities in China, we document that firms located in provinces with higher social trust scores obtain significantly low costs of bank loans and experience less stringent collateral requirement. To address the potential endogeneity issues, we adopt an instrumental variable approach and a two-sided matching model, and report consistent results. We also estimate a system of three equations through three-stage-least square estimator to accommodate the joint determination of price and non-price terms in loan contracts. In addition, we find that the effect of social trust on cost of bank loans is more prominent for firms located in provinces with relatively less developed formal institutions.     

债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。     

电子商务风险及其评价模型研究

随着电子商务的蓬勃发展,电子商务的发展问题日益受到关注,其中的电子商务风险更加成为研究的热点。本文评述了电子商务风险及其特点,论述了电子商务风险的分析方法和分析模型,探讨了需要进一步研究的问题,提出了基于免疫原理的电子商务风险评价模型,并通过应用实例验证了模型的可行性。     

The Effects of Industry Specialization on Auditors' Inherent Risk Assessments and Confidence Judgements*

This study experimentally examines how industry specialization affects auditors' inherent risk assessments and their confidence in those risk assessments. Two groups of participants ‐ experienced banking specialist auditors and equally experienced nonbanking auditors ‐ provided inherent risk assessments for a hypothetical banking client for two financial statement accounts. They assessed inherent risk for an industry‐specific account (loans receivable) and for a nonindustry‐specific account (property and equipment). The results indicate that nonbanking auditors assessed inherent risk significantly higher than industry specialists for all but the valuation assertion for the loans receivable account. However, the difference between the nonbanking auditors' and banking specialists' inherent risk assessments was not as great for the property and equipment account. Further, nonspecialists were less confident about the appropriateness of their inherent risk assessments compared with industry specialists. Potential implications for research and practice are discussed in light of the study's findings.     

Do lenders who redline make more money than lenders who don’t?

While it is widely recognized that racial minorities and residents of distressed urban communities experience relatively greater difficulty in obtaining mortgage loans, there is little consensus on the causes of such lending patterns. This study examines the relationship between lender profitability and the percentage of their loans and loan dollars that are invested in Milwaukee’s central city and to racial minorities throughout the metropolitan area. Findings suggest that to understand broader industry-wide patterns, it is important to focus on the characteristics of lending institutions themselves, particularly those that yield discriminatory lending patterns, and not solely on the income, credit rating, and other socioeconomic characteristics pertaining to the risk and profitability associated with various population groups and community areas. Policy and research implications that will lead to a more comprehensive understanding of, and more effective solutions for, urban credit availability or redlining problems are discussed.     

The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934

This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US economy from 1920 to 1934 using digitised articles from The Wall Street Journal. We derive a monthly sentiment index and use a 10-variable vector error correction model to identify sentiment shocks that are orthogonal to fundamentals. We show the timing and strength of these shocks and their resultant effects on the economy using historical decompositions. Intermittent impacts of up to 15 per cent on industrial production, 10 per cent on the S&P 500 and bank loans, and 37 basis points for the credit risk spread suggest a large role for sentiment.