Are Real GDP Levels Stationary in African Countries?

In this study, we apply flexible Fourier stationary unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to assess the non‐stationary properties of the per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) for 32 African countries. We find that Fourier stationary unit root test has higher power than linear method if the true data‐generating process of per capita real GDP is in fact a stationary nonlinear process of an unknown form with structural change using the low frequency components. We investigate the stationarity of per capita real GDP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that real output is well characterised by a nonlinear, mean‐reverting process, namely Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Senegal, Sierra Leone and South Africa. Our evidence points that these seven countries are nonlinear stationary, implying that per capita real GDP follows a steady rate of growth, and policy innovations then have temporary effects. These results have important policy implications for African countries.     

Uneven centuries: Turkey's experience with economic development since 1820

This article examines the economic development of Turkey from a comparative global perspective. With the help of GDP per capita and other series, it shows that Turkey's record in economic growth and human development since 1820 has been close to world averages and a little above developing country averages. The early focus of the article is on the proximate causes—average rates of investment, below‐average rates of schooling, low rates of total productivity growth, and low technology content of production—which provide important insights into why GDP per capita increases were not any higher. For the deeper causes, the article emphasizes the role of institutions and institutional change. Turkey's formal economic institutions had been influenced by international rules since the nineteenth century, and these rules did not always support economic development. Turkey's elites also made extensive changes in formal political and economic institutions. Formal institutions were only part of the story, however. The direction of institutional change also depended on the political order and the degree of understanding between different groups and their elites. When the political system could not manage the recurring tensions and cleavages between the different elites, economic outcomes suffered.     

Rethinking the impact of GDP on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels

This paper examines the nonlinear impact of real GDP per capita on financial development in a panel of 125 countries. It also determines the moderating effect of inflation on the impact of GDP on financial development. It employs the dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the dynamic common correlated effects (CCE) to do both panel and country‐specific analysis, as well as control for cross‐sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. This study shows that GDP has a positive impact on financial development in the entire panel. However, when we split the panel into different income groups, we find a positive impact in the high‐ and middle‐income groups while the impact is insignificant in the low income group. Although we find no evidence of a nonlinear impact of GDP on financial development in the panel, the country‐specific analysis reveals a significant nonlinear relationship between GDP and financial development in 73 countries. We also show that inflation adversely moderates the positive impact of GDP on financial development in middle‐income countries. This study implies that the relationship between GDP and financial development depends on the levels of GDP and inflation rate. We recommend some policy options based on the findings.     

Accounting for Gender Equality in Secondary School Enrollment in Africa

In addition to analyzing the characteristics of gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa, this paper empirically studies the key drivers of gender equality in secondary education enrollment, using cross‐sectional time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results show that the coefficient associated with the level of real GDP per capita is positive and statistically significant in both the overall Africa sample and in the sub‐Saharan and North African samples. But the quadratic term of real GDP per capita is negative in sign and significant in the overall Africa and sub‐Saharan African estimates. These provide evidence of a hump‐shaped relationship between real GDP per capita and gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa. Our results also suggest that higher share of female teachers in secondary schools, increased democracy (at a decreasing rate), higher female share of the labor force, Christian dominance in a country, higher domestic investment rate, and being an oil‐exporting country increase gender equality in secondary education enrollment in the continent. However, higher population growth tends to lower it. The policy implications and lessons of these results are discussed.     

Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method

A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the 1990s and early 2000s. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this paper implements six case studies of well-known waves of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms in Germany in the early 2000s. In four of the six cases, GDP per capita was higher than in the control group as a result of the reforms. No difference between the treated country and its synthetic counterpart could be found in the cases of Denmark and New Zealand, which in the latter case may have partly reflected the implementation of reforms under particularly weak macroeconomic conditions. Overall, also factoring in the limitations of the SCM in this context, the results are suggestive of a positive but heterogenous effect of reform waves on GDP per capita.     

私营企业就业人数的面板数据分析

为对我国私营企业就业人数的现状进行分析,以人口、人均GDP、高等学校数和高等学校毕业人数为指标,选取我国2001-2008年31个省市的多指标面板数据对我国私营企业就业人数进行分析。结果表明:私营企业就业人数、人口和人均GDP均为非平稳序列,私营企业就业人数与人口和人均GDP之间存在着显著地稳定关系;一个地区的人口数对该地区私营企业就业人数的作用大于人均GDP对该地区私营企业就业人数的作用。     

The Future is in the Past: Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high‐performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross‐country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value‐added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value‐added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value‐added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.     

The long-term growth outlook for the global economy: A review of predictive estimates

The author substantianes his predictive estimates of the population size, per capita and overall GDP by country and for the global economy in 2025 and 2050. He interprets possible economic, social, and political implications of future changes in the alignment of forces in the world economic system.     

Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods

Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve economic performance. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. We analyze the impact of flat tax reform on incomes using “synthetic control” methods. We identify the eight Eastern and Central European countries that adopted flat tax systems between 1994 and 2005, and then compare post‐reform GDP per capita of “treated” countries with a convex combination of similar but “untreated” countries, while accounting for the time‐varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. We find positive impacts in all eight countries, with seven out of eight cases significant at the conventional level.     

中国经济如何跨越中高等收入陷阱

我国2010年人均GDP已经突破3945美元,根据世界银行对世界各经济体的最新分类标准,我国已经步入中高等收入国家行列,但与此同时我国的收入差距不断拉大。如何将收入差距控制在合理范围内,成功地跨越中高等收入陷阱是当前的紧要问题。本文通过对我国人均GDP及其基尼系数的协整检验发现,我国经济增长与收入分配之间存在一种稳定的长期均衡关系。只有合理的处理我国的收入分配差距问题才能达到经济的持续发展,从而跨越高中等收入陷阱。     

基于非参数回归的江苏省用电量分析

基于2000—2019年江苏省用电量和影响因素的数据,运用非参数回归方法探究了一维变量城镇人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明非参数回归方法的拟合效果是很理想的。运用半参数回归模型探究了多维变量人口数量、人均GDP、城镇人均住房面积、农村人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明,人口数量和人均GDP对于江苏省用电量具有显著的参数效应;城镇人均住房面积和农村人均住房面积对于江苏省用电量具有显著的非参数效应;两者之间具有交互作用。     

Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application

The paper revisits the relationship between GDP per capita and diversification, using classical and more recent trade theory. Three theoretical findings are presented: (i) competitive models yield predictions only for the extensive product margin; (ii) countries continuously diversify their production and exports—a major controversy in the empirical literature; and (iii) causality runs from diversification to GDP per capita, and not the other way around. The theoretical analysis also provides indication for the appropriateness of alternative measures of diversification, and enables estimating the relationship to economic development in a gravity-type parametric specification. Using detailed data on countries’ exports, the case of re-specialization is rejected. Inference of causality reveals some evidence for GDP per capita affecting the level of diversification, but stronger support for diversification affecting GDP per capita. Generally, both variables are highly endogenous as they are both driven by the technology parameters in standard models of economic growth and international trade.     

Economic Convergence in the African Continent: Closing the Gap

The paper attempts to analyse the conditional β‐convergence and its sources for 32 African countries over the period 1960‐2008. The augmented Solow model with both gross domestic product (GDP) per worker and per capita income is estimated using the dynamic system generalized methods of moments (GMM) technique with the panel data. This is the first study on the sources of conditional β‐convergence for African countries. According to the results of the augmented Solow model, income convergence rates are lower than those of GDP per worker. Moreover, total factor productivity convergence, human capital convergence and capital labour convergence are contributing towards the convergence of GDP per worker in Africa. This means that growth in the poorest African countries is being augmented by “catch‐up factor,” which is good news for them. However, convergence in terms of GDP per worker is not being fully translated into income per capita convergence. The demographic structure in the African continent with its record of persistent population growth has played an important role in lowering the income convergence of its countries.     

Government Bias in Education,Schooling Attainment,and Long‐Run Growth

A surprising cross‐country stylized fact is that higher public spending on education tends to lower the long‐run growth rate of per capita GDP and the returns to schooling. This is contrary to the conventional wisdom that education is a major driver of growth. In this article, we revisit this issue and try to understand these puzzling facts in terms of an endogenous growth model. Our cross‐country calibration of the growth model predicts that countries with a greater government involvement in education experience lower schooling efforts and lower growth.     

部分拉美国家人均GDP5000美元时经济社会发展的特征及启示

继上海、北京、天津、浙江等省市后,今后一个阶段我国将有更多的省市跨越人均GDP 5000美元关口。发展经济学认为,一国人均GDP超过5000美元则经济呈加速成长。但部分拉美国家在人均GDP突破5000美元后,经济发展出现大幅振荡,长期原地踏步。笔者总结了部分拉美国家在人均GDP 5000美元左右的经济发展特征,分析了经济社会问题及产生原因,总结提出了我国人均GDP 5000美元后经济社会发展的几点启示。     

The macroeconomic impact of AIDS in Malawi: a dualistic,labour surplus economy

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi. This is done by using Bulatao's (1990) predictions of the disease's demographic impact in a dual-economy macro model. The with-AIDS scenario is compared with a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to assess the impact of the disease if it spreads unchecked. The results suggest that by the year 2010, Malawian real GDP could be as much as 10% smaller than it would have been in the absence of the AIDS epidemic. The impact on per capita income is smaller, ranging from 0% to 3% lower than it would have been in the no-AIDS case by 2010.     

避免“中等收入陷阱”的国际比较

从国际经验看,人均GDP超过4000美元阶段,如果不及时转型,继续延用过去的经济发展战略,容易积累矛盾,陷入"中等收入陷阱"。拉美一些国家在长达30年里没有走出"中等收入陷阱",原因也在于此。当前,中国人均GDP已经超过4000美元,正处在向高收入国家迈进的阶段。通过国际比较,探索避免"中等收入陷阱"的一般规律,有助于中国加快转变经济发展方式,实现公平与可持续的发展。     

深圳市居民收入的区域差异分析——基于泰尔指数及其分解的测度

在特区扩容和"一市两法"困局破解的契机下,解决原特区内外发展不平衡、促进市域均衡化发展,成为深圳新一轮发展的主要任务之一。选取人均GDP和城镇居民人均可支配收入作为衡量指标,利用深圳六区2005~2009年的统计数据,从泰尔指数及其分解的角度对深圳市居民收入的区域差异进行测度分析。结果表明,深圳市居民收入的区域差异水平显著低于全国水平,但近年来呈现显著的逐步上升趋势;原特区内外的居民收入差异是全市居民收入区域差异的主要来源,近年来呈显著的逐步扩大趋势。同时还证明,GDP数据不能准确反映居民的实际收入分配情况,采用人均GDP指标来分析居民收入差异不能得到准确的结果。     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF RISING OIL PRICES IN OIL‐IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Oil prices began climbing consistently in 2002, reaching a record high in July 2008. Though this trend slipped back thereafter, owing to the global economic crisis, oil prices seem to be gradually regaining upward movement. Through an analysis of counterfactual simulations based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper shows that the negative impact on GDP of the most recent oil price boom has been substantial in six oil‐importing developing countries, as high as 2% to 3% of GDP per year in some cases, producing unemployment and higher consumer prices and, as a consequence, reduced welfare. Importantly, welfare losses have been much less for countries that have witnessed gains from higher export‐commodity prices. Even for these countries, however, policy action is called for to soften the impact of potential future oil price booms.     

改革开放以来我国GDP变动与居民收入变动关系实证分析

对改革开放以来我国居民收入与GDP之间的变动关系进行研究,选取1978—2011年我国人均GDP、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、农村居民家庭人均总收入数据进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解,发现居民收入的变动不会导致GDP的大幅变动,但是GDP变动却可以导致居民收入的较大波动,且人均GDP对居民收入有很大的影响作用。