中国排污收费征收标准改革的一般均衡分析

2003年7月1日起中国开始施行新的排污收费标准,由过去的浓度超标收费转向总量收费和浓度超标收费相结合的排污收费方式。这是中国环境政策改革的一个重要举措。为此,本文建立了一个中国排污收费标准改革的CGE模型,并设计了三种政策情景来模拟这次改革。对西方关于环境税的一些理论观点在中国的适用性进行了验证。     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

经济学中一般均衡存在性问题理论述评

本文对经济学中一般均衡理论进行了概述。文中主要介绍了Arrow—Debreu经济模型、均衡存在性定理、存在性涸题在无穷维商品空间上的扩展以及相关工作。     

General Equilibrium Analysis of India's Trade Reforms

WTO membership for India implies cutting tariffs in a phased manner. A general equilibrium approach is used to evaluate its impacts. The study analyses both the reduction and elimination of tariffs. With a small country assumption, there are welfare gains by liberalizing trade. With a large country assumption, welfare gains are observed when a CET transformation function is used and welfare loss in its absence.     

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Efficiency Improvements at Japanese Ports

In this paper we investigate the system-wide impact of increased efficiency of ports in Japan using a computable general equilibrium model developed for 1995. The Japanese Ministry of Transport has been implementing programs of the Ninth Seven-year Port Development Plan to improve port efficiency. The technological efficiency in the ports reduces the cost of shipping transportation, and the forward and backward linkages of imports and exports introduce some positive gains in the national GDP. Our analysis proves that the spillover effects are substantial on shipping transportation and to a lesser extent on the Japanese economy.     

统一内外资企业所得税率的动态CGE研究

新《劳动合同法》、统一内外资企业所得税等政策的相继实施,再加上目前人民币升值、国际形势恶化和宏观政策紧缩,形势与政策之间已经出现共振现象,那么由两税合并带来的对我国宏观经济的冲击到底有多大?本文利用CGE模型进行仿真,研究结果表明,在短期内,两税合并的确会对部分产业产生一定的负面冲击,同时也会降低政府税收,但对各地区的产出却呈正向冲击,长期来看,两税合并最终有利于我国产业的优化发展,有利于促进经济社会的全面发展。     

General Equilibrium Analysis of International TFP Growth Rates

The paper presents a study of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance among developed countries between 1985 and 1990. The analysis includes the three large economies: the US, Japan and Europe. A general equilibrium model of these economies is used to estimate TFP growth at the sectoral and at the aggregate levels. The model is based on the fundamentals of the economies and employs only data on input-output flows, factor inputs across sectors, consumption and trade patterns and endowments. Prices are endogenous in the model. They are obtained as shadow prices from the model's linear program and then used to measure TFP growth and decompose it in a technical change effect, a demand effect and a terms-of-trade effect. The technical change effect is highly correlated with the conventional Solow residual measure. This result lends support to the standard measure of technological change.     

中国税制改革效应的一般均衡分析

我国正酝酿着新的税制改革。本研究利用可计算一般均衡模型PRCGEM（第三版）对我国税制改革的效应进行了模拟。在第二版的基础上，PRCGEM第三版通过更详细刻画中国的税收结构在模型中建立起几个主要税种的决定机制及其对经济主体之间的财政收入分配的反馈机制，从而为量化改革方案对经济的影响提供了基础。本研究对四种由经济学界和政府决策层提出的税制改革设想的短斯和长期效果进行了模拟和分析。     

中国企业所得税税负归宿的一般均衡分析

本文运用一般均衡方法,分析中国企业所得税的税负归宿。文中将整个经济划分为企业所得税主要征收部门和非企业所得税主要征收部门,通过需求、供给、要素市场出清和投入产出相等四个方面,研究征收企业所得税对所有产品和要素在各个市场产生的连锁反应和影响,从而确定税负的分布。根据我国数据测定要素替代弹性、产品需求替代弹性等参数,代入模型进行模拟分析。研究结果表明,我国企业所得税并不完全由资本承担,资本只承担了税负83%左右,还有17%左右转嫁给劳动要素。由于要素的流动性,资本承担的83%税负部分不只是由企业所得税主要征收部门的资本承担的,而是由全社会资本共同承担的。     

Global Warming Policy and the Pennsylvania Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Most studies of the impacts of global warming policy have been performed at the national level. However, national averages obscure the fact that some regions may be affected much more than others. We formulated a regional computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of a carbon tax on the Pennsylvania economy. The model incorporates special features relating to labor mobility, trade and energy substitution for this purpose. Our results indicate significant negative overall impacts on the Pennsylvania economy, primarily because it is a major producer and user of fossil fuels, especially coal, and because it is highly industrialized. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters and model assumptions indicate that our results are robust.     

Evolution in a General Equilibrium framework

In this paper, we consider a general equilibrium model in which the economies are characterized by the distribution of firms on a set of branches of production; we will show that based on the decisions of the managers of the firms, it is possible to build a dynamic system whose solutions reproduce the possible trajectories of the economy. Once the initial state of an economy is known, that is, the initial distribution of firms, we will have a unique solution for this dynamic system, which will coincide with the evolution of the economy, that is, the evolution of prices and equilibrium allocations.The investment decisions of the administrators of the companies will change the distribution over the set of existing productive branches, which in turn will produce changes in the wealth of consumers who are also shareholders of the companies and then as a consequence, their demand will change, and therefore the equilibrium allocations and prices will too.In most cases, these decisions lead to an improvement in the efficiency of the productive side of the economy and an increase in the welfare of the economy as a whole, but, as we will show, under some particular circumstances, even when it comes to rational decisions from the point of view of administrators, this can lead to undesirable repercussions on the welfare of consumers. Besides, in a neighborhood of a critical economy, even when these decisions may involve small changes in the distribution of companies, they can cause abrupt and unexpected changes in the behavior of the economy, or in other words, they can cause an economic crisis. These are characterized by large changes in the prices, in the demand, and in the supply of goods. In contrast, in a sufficiently small neighborhood of a regular economy, small changes in the distribution of firms produced by the investment decisions of managers do not lead to large changes in the subsequent behavior of the economy. We will exemplify these statements with several numerical examples.     

From General Equilibrium to Schumpeter

A simple model of cost innovation in a monetary economy is presented that illustrates the essentially dynamic model of Schumpeter involving breaking the circular flow of capital is logically consistent with the General Equilibrium (GE) model of an exchange and production economy. The GE model as presented by Arrow, Debreu and McKenzie is a non-process model; and the original theory deals with the non-constructive proofs of existence of competitive equilibria (CEs). To associate this theory with GE it is necessary to recast the basic model as a process model. The GE model is enlarged and specified as a playable game by adding rules to describe the mechanisms that carry process.Although we believe that GE was a great intellectual achievement, it strangled dynamics and the type of low dimensional equilibrium dynamics of the rational expectations school is profoundly misleading. It turns out that, by remodeling GE as a process model even with only one or two strategic moves, Pandora׳s Box of mechanisms appears and the functions of markets, money and default conditions all emerge as logical necessities.It is shown that the opportunity for process innovation can be described minimally and formally modeled by considering the availability of a new process as a function of a controlled stochastic variable where success depends on chance modified by the level of investment. The Schumpeterian concept of “breaking the circular flow of capital” appears naturally as a disequilibrium phenomenon where the extra resources are captured by a strategic disequilibrating allocation of money.     

Chamberlinian Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: A Theoretical Framework

In this paper, a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model is developed by bringing together different strands of theoretical reasoning. These are as follows: input–output analysis, gravity modelling, the theory of intra-industry trade and the theory of general equilibrium under conditions of monopolistic competition. The innovation in this approach is the assumption that, within each sector, a large number of different brands of output are produced. Households like diversity of consumption and diversity of inputs is a productive factor for firms. The number of brands produced in each sector and region is endogenous. A certain amount of fixed costs per brand imposes an upper bound on the number of available brands. Factor markets are perfectly competitive, while monopolistic competition prevails on goods markets. The equilibrium solution of the model closely resembles models which have been applied on an ad hoc basis in regional science before, but it is well founded in modern economic theory now. In particular, trade flows obey a gravity law in equilibrium.     

关于分工、专业化和借贷利率的一般均衡分析

斯密和庞巴雏克从分工与专业化的角度解释了储蓄与借贷行为产生的原因以及利息的本质。穆勒也强调借贷行为在社会关系和改进劳动生产率方面的重要作用。本文利用内生借贷行为和内生的网络分工模型分析了利率与投资及经济发展之间的一些主要关系，并利用经济发展事实对部分结论作了论证。     

中国农业关税政策的空间性应用一般均衡模型构建及分析

对缩减中国农业关税率之后所产生的影响进行计量分析，是一个值得关注的课题。为此，本文首先构建了对多地区(或多国家)、多部门进行计量分析的空间性应用一般均衡模型(SCGE)。然后在将中国农业关税率缩减30％的假定下，对中国以及其他国家在产品价格、需求及受益水平等方面所带来的影响进行了模拟分析。     

人民币现实均衡汇率的历史轨迹与未来走势——基于一般均衡框架下多方程结构模型的分析

在各种均衡汇率模型中,一般均衡框架下的多方程结构模型具有比较优势。将该模型运用于人民币兑美元名义汇率分析显示,1994年以来,人民币保持基本均衡状态下的升值趋势,这种趋势仍将随着中国经济的持续快速增长而延续。但短期来看升值速度与货币当局干预强度反向相关。基于我国目前产出的汇率预期弹性大于利率预期弹性的现实,为避免升值对我国经济造成负面冲击,适度干预是必要的,同时也要通过恰当的外贸及资本管制政策来缓解升值压力,并为减少干预创造条件。     

Competitive General Equilibrium with network externalities

We identify sufficient conditions for existence of competitive equilibrium with network externalities and indivisibilities. Such combination of externalities and indivisibilities is present in many goods and services with network effects, and it makes existence of equilibrium non-trivial. We provide an existence theorem in a model with a measure space of consumers. Key conditions for existence are anonymity of network effects and dispersion in the economy’s income distribution.     

Involuntary Unemplyment in Imperfectly Competitive General Equilibrium Models

This paper is about 'involuntary unemployment' in general equilibrium models with imperfect competition. It surveys papers written after the seminal work of d'Aspremont, Dos Santos Ferreira and Gérard‐Varet (1984). This unemployment is called involuntary because it exists at any wage. It results from imperfect competition in the product markets, more specifically from firms' excessive market power. These papers have focussed their attention on the conditions required for involuntary unemployment. In our presentation, we characterise this form of unemployment through three elements: consumers' preferences, price expectations and Ford effects. Each element is important because it influences the demand for the good and hence its price elasticity, the latter being central in the definition of firms' market power. JEL Classification. D43, E24.     

Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach

How would competitive pressure impact upon the income distribution and the poverty of household groups? We analyse the gains in efficiency and productivity due to competitive pressure, and its distributional effects using a general equilibrium input–output framework. Efficient utilization of the available resources, technical progress and free trade constitute our sources of growth. Welfare would increase under competition, but the income distribution would become more skewed. Rural household groups would stand to lose relative to the urban ones. Urban poverty would be reduced significantly more than rural. In fact, the agricultural worker would even suffer from an increase in poverty. The study shows that competitive pressure has a positive effect on efficiency, productivity and poverty, but an adverse effect on the income distribution in the Indian economy.