Inflation,wage bargaining,wage policy and production structure: Theory and empirical results for the Netherlands

Summary Starting from traditional neo-classical results, a theory is developed in which, in addition to prices, labour productivity and unemployment, the degree of unionization, the profit rate and the shifting-on of direct taxes and social security contributions influence nominal contract wages. A separate theoretical framework is constructed for wage drift.It is furthermore shown how the wage theory presented is related to Friedman-Phelps specifications. After a discussion of wage policy and its potential influence on wages, wage equations are estimated for the key bargaining sector as well as for wage followers. After their characteristics have been dealt with, as well as the effects of wage policy and the role of wage drift, the relationship between key bargaining, inflation and employment is analysed, showing that the model presented is able to explain stagflation.My thanks are due to Mr. H. von Eye for his help in carrying out the calculations and to Mr. A. de Reyger for providing me with the sectoral unionization rates and his general research assistance. Mr. A. J. van Geel kindly prepared the graphs.     

Networks,trust, and risk mitigation during the American Revolutionary War: a case study

This article takes a case study approach to the question of how entrepreneurs developed and used networks to support trade during the American Revolutionary War (American War of Independence). Using the business letter books of Daniel Eccleston of Lancaster, covering January 1780 to December 1781, the article shows how he used trust‐building activities and developed open networks in Britain and the West Indies in order to build, sustain, maintain, and diversify his commercial activities to reduce risk and develop new opportunities. Eccleston's letters illustrate a competitive market in which entrepreneurs helped drive the industrial revolution through stimulating demand and encouraging trade. They show that mutual trust was the foundation of strong networks, and that networks were significant in underpinning entrepreneurial success through allowing the mitigation of business risk and offering the opportunity for diversification supported by the network. The article makes use of the work of Casson, Pearson and Richardson, and Wilson and Pop.     

独立战争与美国文学的起源

美国文学在诞生至今的二百多年中,产生了无数的优秀作品和杰出作家.但是美国文学从哪里起源?这却是一个颇有争议的问题.事实上,独立战争可以说是美利坚合众国一切的初始.这场战争,促成国家、民族、政治制度、文学、习俗等等破茧而出.美国文学在这其中表现得尤为明显.     

Unemployment trends in some American cities with living wage ordinances

By early 2003, more than 90 American cities and counties have passed laws, called Living Wage Ordinances, which require companies that have contracts with these municipalities and/or receive tax subsidies to pay their workers a wage above the federal minimum rate. The levels of these wages and the types of workers who are affected by these living wage ordinances are reviewed. Also examined are the major arguments for and against these laws. This study looks at the trends in unemployment rates in 40 cities that have enacted Living Wage Ordinances. Each city's unemployment rate is compared to that in its metropolitan area, its state, and the nation. The study reveals that experiences are mixed. Some cities with living wage ordinances have experienced an improvement in their relative employment situation. Other cities have experienced just the opposite.     

Estimating youth training wage differentials during and after training

We compare wages between school leavers who participate in government-fundedyouth training and those who do not. Using a subset of all schoolleavers in Lancashire between 1988 and 1991, we find that wagedifferentials are large and negative for all types of participantwhen training. Once training finishes, differentials are smallbut still negative. There is no evidence that participants havesteeper wage profiles. A ranking of lifetime wages suggeststhat the occupations chosen by participants may offer positivereturns compared to occupations with no training. The largestimpact comes at the firm level: training providers pay lowerwages to both ex-participants and non-participants.     

Goods Inflation,Asset Inflation,and the Greatest Peacetime Inflation in the US

In every episode of global monetary inflation originating in the Federal Reserve, we find both asset price inflation and goods inflation. The interrelationship between these two types of inflation depends both on cycle-specific factors and more general factors which transcend the cycle and stem from essential aspects of monetary disorder. The purpose of this article is to analyse the nature of this interrelationship and elaborate on the concepts of monetary disorder, goods inflation, and asset inflation. In today’s world of monetary systems where there is no stable demand for high-powered money (which itself is no longer a highly distinct asset) monetary disorder can be hard to recognize until quite late in the inflationary process. Asset price inflation now has a popular meaning quite different from the original found in Austrian business cycle theory. Two decades of widespread inflation targeting at around 2% per annum have encouraged us to ignore an old lesson. In a well-functioning capitalist economy under a sound money order, prices would fluctuate considerably upwards and downwards with a tendency to revert to the mean over the very long run. Finally the principles and hypotheses developed here are analysed in the laboratory of history, specifically for the greatest peacetime inflation in the U.S. (1963–80).     

从美国国家利益角度看伊拉克战争

美国为什么要发动对伊拉克战争,这在这场战争爆发前后,以至在战争结束之后,人们都要关注的一个问题。在为美国开列的各种理由中,包括铲除恐怖主义、捍卫国土安全、推翻独裁政权、争夺石油利益、确保美国中东霸权、改造伊斯兰世界、发泄对“9·11”袭击的愤怒、振兴美国经济、巩固单极世界等等。这些理由概括起来反映了美国国家利益的三大核心内容:安全利益、经济利益和价值利益。每当美国发动或卷入一场战争时,无论从动机还是结果看,都会涉及维护和扩大以这三项基本利益为内容的国家利益。我们不妨追溯远一些,为什么美国要进行1898年的那场…     

从美国国家利益角度看伊拉克战争

美国为什么要发动对伊拉克战争,这在这场战争爆发前后,以至在战争结束之后,人们都要关注的一个问题.在为美国开列的各种理由中,包括铲除恐怖主义、捍卫国土安全、推翻独裁政权、争夺石油利益、确保美国中东霸权、改造伊斯兰世界、发泄对“9·11”袭击的愤怒、振兴美国经济、巩固单极世界等等.这些理由概括起来反映了美国国家利益的三大核心内容:安全利益、经济利益和价值利益.每当美国发动或卷入一场战争时,无论从动机还是结果……     

中国通货膨胀率与其不确定性之间的非线性动态关系

通货膨胀率和通货膨胀不确定性之间相互影响,二者之间的内在关系对政府运用货币政策具有重要的现实意义。本文采用1990年1月以来居民消费价格指数(CPI)的月度数据,结合随机域回归模型、系列随机域的非线性检验方法、最大似然估计及贝叶斯估计方法,对我国通货膨胀率与通货膨胀不确定性的关系进行了实证分析。实证研究发现,通货膨胀率引起了通货膨胀不确定性,两者呈现非线性的U型关系,支持了Friedman假说;大的通货膨胀不确性引起通货膨胀率先升后降,呈现非线性倒U曲线关系,Cukierman-Meltzer假说在U型左侧范围内成立,于U型右侧Holland结论成立。     

Latin American manufacturing and the First World War: An exploratory essay

In the 1960s many writers on Latin America accepted the idea that the conditions for industrial growth were most propitious when international commercial and financial flows were disrupted, as in the First World War. Recent work has raised doubts, however, about the extent of manufacturing expansion between 1914 and 1918, while drawing attention to the growth of industry in the 20 years preceding 1914. This paper, through a discussion of the secondary literature and a sampling of primary sources on five countries, seeks to explain why increases in production and profits during the war were not accompanied by significant new investment or a diversification of Latin America's industrial structure.     

美国增长新范式:负利率、高通胀、低增长

2007年爆发的次贷危机使全球面临金融危机风险,而全球通胀压力也正在不断上升.为了及时化解金融危机风险,美联储已经大幅、快速降息.次贷危机后,美国经济将告别1990年代主要得益于全球化红利的高增长、低通胀和低利率的经济增长范式,进入低增长、高通胀和负(实际)利率的新范式、美国经济不太可能陷入1930年代的大萧条,或类似1990年代日本的低增长、低通胀和低利率,或以低增长、高通胀和高利率为表象的类似1970-1980年代初的滞胀状态.     

关于我国高速增长与通货膨胀问题

小平同志南巡讲话以来,中华大地投资热潮一浪高过一浪,经济增长速度明显加快。对于这一热浪,各方看法不一,“冷”、“热’’之争又起。本期专稿发表了著名经济学家宋承先教授的文章《关于我国高速增长与通货膨胀问题》。宋教授在文中指出,我国已具备高速增长的物质基础,适度爬行的通货膨胀是允许的。