Agglomeration effects of inter-firm backward and forward linkages: Evidence from Japanese manufacturing investment in China

This paper examines the agglomeration effects of multinational firms on the location decisions of first-time Japanese manufacturing investors in China for the period 1995–2007. This is accomplished by exploiting newly constructed measures of inter-firm backward and forward linkages formed in a home country. The conditional and mixed logit estimates reveal that agglomeration by first-tier suppliers and customers draws subsequent investment into a location. However, such agglomeration effects are not pervasive and do not extend to the second and third tiers. Instead, we find that agglomeration by third-tier suppliers generates a countervailing force, making a location relatively unattractive.     

Do Economic Effects Justify the Use of Fiscal Incentives?

The siting of a large, new firm is often presumed to give rise to significant economic and tax benefits to the community of location. This presumption serves as the basis for the granting of lucrative economic development incentives to footloose businesses. This article examines whether large, mobile firms generate significant net benefits for the region of location. Panel data and nonrandom estimation techniques are applied to a primary database of large firms that made location decisions in the 1980s to explore the impact of location on regional economic performance, The empirical analysis explores different treatment regions (both effects within the county and the metropolitan statistical area [MSA] of location) and different control regions. The results show that large firms fail to produce significant net benefits for their host communities, calling into question the high-stakes bidding war over jobs and investment.     

Financial constraints and foreign direct investment: firm-level evidence

Low productivity is an important barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision. Theoretically, we show that financial constraints can affect highly productive firms more than firms with low productivity because the former are more likely to expand abroad. We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German domestic and multinational firms which contains information on parent-level financial constraints as well as on the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by firms most likely to consider investing abroad. The locational information in our dataset allows exploiting cross-country differences in contract enforcement. Consistent with theory, we find that poor contract enforcement in the host country has a negative impact on FDI decisions.     

Do Analysts Matter for Corporate Tax Planning? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

We exploit an exogenous shock to analyst coverage as a result of brokerage house mergers and closures to examine whether financial analysts influence the tax‐planning activities of the firms they cover. Using a difference‐in‐differences design, we find that, on average, firms affected by broker mergers and/or closures experience a reduction in their GAAP (cash) effective tax rates (ETR) of 2.5 percent (2.6 percent), relative to control firms, translating into average tax expense (cash tax) savings of $34 ($35) million. The treatment effect is more pronounced among firms with lower pre‐event analyst coverage. To explore how analysts affect tax planning, we further document that the treatment effect is greater among firms that lose an analyst who provided an implied ETR forecast in the past, suggesting that analysts influence tax planning via their tax‐specific research efforts. In addition, we find that after merger/closure, weakly governed firms increase their use of aggressive tax strategies, and financially distressed firms experience a larger reduction of cash effective tax rates, relative to control firms. Overall, we provide evidence that a shock to analyst coverage sufficiently changes the cost‐benefit trade‐off of tax planning.     

Corporate In‐house Tax Departments*

In‐house human capital tax investment is a significant input to a firm's tax decisions. Yet, due to the lack of data on corporate in‐house tax departments, there is little empirical evidence on how tax departments are associated with tax planning and compliance outcomes. We expect the size of tax departments to be positively associated with the effectiveness of tax planning and compliance. Using hand‐collected data on the number of corporate tax employees in S&P 1500 firms over the 2009–2014 period, we find that firms with larger tax departments are associated with lower and less volatile cash effective tax rates. Furthermore, using tax employees' specialization, we identify tax departments' relative focus on planning or compliance and document a trade‐off between tax avoidance and tax risk. Specifically, tax departments with more of a tax planning focus have incrementally greater tax avoidance but higher tax risk, whereas tax departments with more of a tax compliance focus have incrementally lower tax risk but higher tax rates. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature by looking inside the “black box” of corporate tax departments and shedding light on the importance of human capital tax investment for tax outcomes.     

The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China

The tax incentives designed to stimulate firm investment may have a large and unexpected impact on labor market outcomes. Using a comprehensive data set on Chinese manufacturing firms during the period 1998–2007 with a difference-in-differences approach, we examine the impact of the value-added tax reform in 2004 on the firm-level labor market outcomes. We find that firms in eligible industries and pilot regions (treated firms) enjoying lower costs of purchasing fixed assets under the reform tended to increase capital investment and reduce employment simultaneously relative to firms that did not have tax incentives (the control firms). Compared with the control firms, the treated firms became more capital intensive but had declines in labor share in value added and average wage. We also find that the employment adjustment is associated with increase in the share of skilled workers in terms of engineers and technicians, but not workers with a college degree or higher.     

The impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy on employment: Evidence from China

We examine the impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy (ADP) on employment. As a tax incentive policy, we expect an ADP to impact firm behavior significantly, but its effect on employment remains uninvestigated. Leveraging the two-stage implementation of an ADP in selected industries in China in 2014 and 2015 and using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that: 1) the ADP significantly increases employment, which is consistent with the output effect hypothesis; and 2) the ADP increases firms’ labor demand, mainly by stimulating investment in fixed assets and easing their financial constraints. Additional analysis suggests that the impact of ADP on employment is more salient for small firms, non-state-owned firms, and high growth firms, and skilled labor employment, indicating that the ADP is more effective for firms with high financial constraints and hiring skilled labor to accompany the increase in capital investment.     

Tax Loss Carryovers in a Competitive Environment*

The fact that incumbent firms can immediately deduct research and development (R&D) investments from taxable income is generally believed to give them a strategic advantage over new firms that cannot deduct the investment cost, but instead generate a net operating tax loss carryover. Using an analytical model, we show that this conventional wisdom need not hold in a competitive environment. We examine operating and investment decisions in a duopolistic industry in which an initial investment in R&D yields an immediate tax benefit for one firm, but creates a net operating loss carryover for the other firm. If both firms invest in R&D, the firm with the net operating loss carryover makes more aggressive capital investment decisions following successful R&D. This may deter the incumbent firm from investing in R&D despite the lower aftertax costs of this investment. Changing the tax loss carryover rules would thus not only affects start‐up or loss firms, but would also affect the investment decisions of profitable firms in the same industry.     

Spillovers from agglomerations and inward FDI: a multilevel analysis on sub-Saharan African firms

This paper adopts multilevel analysis to study the agglomeration-performance nexus for domestic firms in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that contextual factors can explain up to 30 % of the variance in firms’ productivity, more than half of which depends on the geographic location. Our results show also that African firms’ productivity is positively correlated to the size of the agglomeration when they locate in larger cities specialized in different sectors, while the relation turns negative when they face direct competition from firms in the same industry. These effects are similar in the services and the manufacturing industries, even if in the latter positive spillovers are found to be conditional to the presence of backward and forward linkages with nearby firms. Finally, we are able to show that these effects are also confirmed when domestic firms locate close to foreign multinationals, especially those coming from the South.     

The impact of special economic zones on producer services productivity: Evidence from China

Do Special Economic Zones (SEZs) promote the productivity of producer services, and what are the channels of the effect? To shed light on these questions, we collect a dataset of 1.46 million producer service firms on the basis of the Second Economic Census of China. We then use the dataset to prove the productivity advantages of producer service industry in the SEZs. Guided by a “new” new economic geography model, we estimate these advantages using the IV model and unconditional distribution characteristic-parameter correspondence method. Results imply that agglomeration effect is the source of the productivity advantages of the producer services in the SEZs. This effect is positively correlated with the local manufacturing scale. A high industrial relevancy between the producer services and the leading manufacturing industry in the SEZs results in a strong agglomeration effect. The preferential policy in the SEZs reduces the entry barrier for firms and attracts a high proportion of inefficient firms entering with the selection effect. This result has a negative impact on promoting the productivity of producer services. The conclusions are robust in different circumstances.     

Regional Characteristics,Industry Agglomeration and Location Choice: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investments in Korea*

Using extensive firm‐level data for the years 1998–2006, we analyze the regional location decision of Japanese manufacturing foreign direct investors in Korea by focusing on the role of agglomeration economies. Our logit estimates indicate that horizontal agglomeration matters in the location decision, but vertical agglomeration does not. Strong evidence of country‐of‐origin effects is found. Japanese foreign direct investments in high‐technology industries show a typical ‘follow‐the‐leader’ pattern, while those in the in low‐technology industries are influenced by regional endowments. In addition, Japan's high‐technology firms are likely to prefer urban locations so that they can enjoy the externalities of business services.     

Tax and leverage: Evidence from China

This study exploits two institutional features of China to test the causal link between tax and capital structure. First, the central government exclusively determines the corporate tax rate in China, which results in changes in corporate income tax rates across different Chinese public firms over the period of 2000–2011. Such mandatory tax shifts provide a quasi-natural experimental setting for our difference-in-differences analysis investigating the impact of tax on leverage. We find evidence supporting the dynamic trade-off theory, namely that firms are unresponsive to tax cuts but increase long-term leverage when taxes rise (particularly those in low statutory tax regimes). Second, governmental intervention in capital allocation is common in China such that political connections are usually regarded as an asset for firms in accessing bank loans. Using anti-corruption events as shocks to the value of political connections over the sample period, our research is the first study to show that political connections become a liability that enables banks to recall loans from affected firms during the anti-corruption campaign periods. This change overturns the typical tax-leverage relationship observed, as we find anti-corruption affected firms reduce long-term leverage when taxes are cut and they become insensitive to tax increases. Our results reveal the importance of political ties in explaining how firms adjust their capital structure to tax changes, which is extremely relevant to policy makers and regulators when monitoring bank loan markets.     

Tax‐Avoidance Activities of U.S. Multinational Corporations*

This paper investigates whether economies of scale exist for tax planning. In particular, do larger, more profitable, multinational corporations avoid more taxes than other firms, resulting in lower effective tax rates? While the empirical results indicate that, ceteris paribus, larger corporations have higher effective tax rates, firms with greater pre‐tax income have lower effective tax rates. The negative relation between effective tax rates (ETRs) and pretax income is consistent with firms with greater pre‐tax income having more incentives and resources to engage in tax planning. Consistent with multinational corporations being able to avoid income taxes that domestic‐only companies cannot, I find that multinational corporations in general, and multinational corporations with more extensive foreign operations, have lower worldwide ETRs than other firms. Finally, in a sample of multinational corporations only, I find that higher levels of U.S. pre‐tax income are associated with lower U.S. and foreign ETRs, while higher levels of foreign pre‐tax income are associated with higher U.S. and foreign ETRs. Thus, large amounts of foreign income are associated with higher corporate tax burdens. Overall, I find substantial evidence of economies of scale to tax planning.     

Do Female Managers Affect Productivity? Evidence from Zimbabwean Manufacturing Firms

Using a large dataset of Zimbabwean manufacturing firms extracted from the two waves of World Bank Enterprise Surveys of 2011 and 2016, the study investigates the impact of female management on firm's productivity in Zimbabwe's manufacturing firms. The study estimates a modified production function, to incorporate gender dimension, using a random effects estimation model. The results show that the effect of having a female manager on firm productivity varies by geographical location in the case of Zimbabwe. Specifically, the productivity of firms which have a female top manager, and are located in Harare, experience a negative productivity differential as they significantly reduce their productivity gap by 9.9 percent. On the other hand, the study found that having a female top manager in manufacturing firms located in Bulawayo significantly increases productivity by 7.9 percent compared to firms located in the Midlands area. We also find that the effect of a female manager on firm productivity differs by sectors, stressing the need for domestic economic policy to consider these dynamics. Given the importance of location in determining the contribution of a production manager on firm performance, the government may need to implement policies that consider location‐specific factors to enhance productivity of the manufacturing sector of Zimbabwe.     

Footloose Multinationals in Belgium?

Using firm level panel data for the years 1996–2001, covering all sectors of the economy, the impact of multinational ownership on the exit decisions of firms located in Belgium is estimated. In this analysis, I clearly distinguish for nationality of ownership, allowing for differences between firms that are foreign-owned and multinationals rooted in the domestic economy. Controlling for various firm- and industry-specific factors, it is found that while foreign multinationals are more likely to shut down operations compared to national firms in both manufacturing and service sectors, domestic multinationals only exhibit significantly higher exit rates in the manufacturing industries. The analysis has important policy implications, especially in terms of the desirability of the large impact of multinational firms on employment and output generation in Belgium. JEL no. D21, F23, L20, L25     

The impact of foreign direct investment on export structure and employment generation

The literature on foreign direct investment often treats its determinants and consequences independently. This is particularly so for empirical studies. The purpose of this paper is to consider both aspects simultaneously and to provide some empirical evidence on the nature of foreign investment and its impact on export structure and employment generation. The method consists of a model which includes both industry-specific and location-specific determinants of foreign direct investment in the export sector and their effects on the employment generating capacity of individual manufacturing industries. It is estimated for three-digit S.I.C. industries in Puerto Rico in 1979. The results suggest that Puerto Rico's export sector consists of US based firms producing on a large scale. These firms are primarily attracted to the island by relatively higher profits than on the mainland. Low wage labor is not considered an important inducement to foreign investment in Puerto Rico. The labor intensity of the island's export sector lags behind that of comparable countries due to the capital-intensive nature of its principal exports. The island's manufacturing employment can be more effectively increased by altering the composition of exports than by inducing present firms to hire more workers.     

Transfer Pricing: Strategies,Practices, and Tax Minimization

Using a survey of tax executives from multinational corporations, we document that some firms set their transfer pricing strategy to minimize tax payments, but more firms focus on tax compliance. We estimate that a firm focusing on minimizing taxes has a GAAP effective tax rate that is 6.6 percentage points lower and generates about $43 million more in tax savings, on average, than a firm focusing on tax compliance. Available COMPUSTAT data on sample firms confirm our survey‐based inferences. We also find that transfer pricing‐related tax savings are greater when higher foreign income, tax haven use, and R&D activities are combined with a tax minimization strategy. Finally, compliance‐focused firms report lower FIN 48 tax reserves than tax‐minimizing firms, consistent with the former group using less uncertain transfer pricing arrangements. Collectively, our study provides direct evidence that multinational firms have differing internal priorities for transfer pricing, and that these differences are strongly related to the taxes reported by these firms.     

Corporate Tax Aggressiveness and Insider Trading

We examine the association between corporate tax aggressiveness and the profitability of insider trading under the assumption that insider trading profits reflect managerial opportunism. We document that insider purchase profitability, but not sales profitability, is significantly higher on average in more tax aggressive firms. We also find that the positive association between tax aggressiveness and insider purchase profitability is attenuated for firms with more effective monitoring and is accentuated for firms with a more opaque information environment. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that tax aggressiveness is significantly associated with greater insider sales volume in the fiscal year prior to a stock price crash. Finally, we find that the association between tax aggressiveness and insider purchase profitability weakens after the introduction of FIN 48, consistent with the increased transparency of tax positions under the new disclosure requirement reducing insiders' information advantage and hence their ability to profit from insider trading. To the extent that insider trading profits reflect managerial opportunism, our results are consistent with managers exploiting the opacity arising from tax aggressive activities to extract rent from shareholders, particularly those shareholders who sold their shares to the managers. Our findings are particularly important in light of the number of studies relying on the agency view of tax avoidance to develop arguments or to draw inferences.     

高新技术产业时空格局演变及影响因素——河南省电子及通信设备制造业的实证分析

基于河南省18个地市电子及通信设备制造业产值、企业数量、从业人员等统计数据,利用空间基尼系数、产业动态集聚指数等指标对河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚度进行测定和分析,并通过构建多元线性回归模型检验网络基础设施、创新支撑条件、制度因素对其空间集聚的影响.结果表明:研究时段内,河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚度呈上升态势;在空间上主要集中于郑州、洛阳、新乡、许昌等中原城市群核心城市;网络基础设施、创新支撑条件、经济制度环境对河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚有显著影响.     

Does Tax Planning Affect Analysts' Forecast Accuracy?

We investigate whether firms' tax planning affects the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Tax planning can exacerbate the complexity of firms' operations through strategic choices to exploit tax laws. Because of its effect on firms' operations, tax planning can influence analysts' efforts to understand and forecast earnings. Specifically, if the additional complexity arising from tax planning makes firm attributes less representative of expected earnings, analysts may issue less accurate forecasts. Using auditor‐provided tax services (APTS) as a measure of tax planning, we find that, as firms spend more on tax planning, the accuracy of analysts' forecasts of both earnings per share and tax expense declines. We also document that firms with higher levels of APTS have greater year‐to‐year volatility in, and lower persistence of, effective tax rates and earnings. Our results suggest that increased firm complexity, due to greater tax planning, makes earnings and tax expense more difficult to forecast and that analysts do not properly adjust for these effects. Thus, when deciding to engage in tax planning, firms appear to make trade‐offs between potential tax savings and negative effects on earnings properties and analysts' forecasts.