中国证券市场庄家与散户的博弈

中国证券市场发展在前,立法在后,在发展迅速的背后却存在诸多的问题,导致中国证券市场的发展受到阻碍,各个参与者之间存在博弈的关系,导致市场投机气氛过浓,投资者的利益受到损害.通过论述中国证券市场的主要问题以及由这些问题而引起的两个主要投资者--机构投资者和个人投资之间的博弈关系,可以得到结论只有进行股市制度创新,使机构投资者主力操纵股市将付出巨大额外代价,消除散户的跟风心理,改变故事交易者的短期理性,才能达到股市的稳定.     

波浪理论中庄家和散户的博弈分析

本文在股票技术图形中波浪理论的基础上,运用博弈论分析庄家和散户在吸筹、洗盘、拉升、出货各个阶段过程中不同的操作手法而产生的效应关系,从一个新的角度阐明两者的关系.     

机构与散户信息不对称博弈

一、模型设计 投资者的股票买卖行为直接产生股票交易价格。根据其对加以价格的影响，我们将投资者分为两类：（1）资金量不足以影响一段时期内某只股票价格的投资者，这里称为“散户”。（2）资金量大到其交易行为足以影响一段时期某只股票价格的投资者，这里称为“机构投资者”，简称“机构”，包括日常所称的机构投资者和一般大户。     

不完全信息下，中国证券市场开放式基金与散户投资博弈研究

相比于证券市场的直接投资,开放基金以其低风险、高收益等特点受到越来越多散户投资者追捧。基金公司利用其信息优势,同散户展开了一场信息不对称的投资博弈。通过运用不完全信息博弈理论,分析了开放式基金同散户博弈过程。结果表明,散户在信息严重不对称的劣势下,其后验信念的修正往往受到机构信号的误导,难以有效区分强、弱势机构,博弈要求的最优策略行动更难以达到,个体投资者因此成为了证券市场的最大受害者。     

信息不对称与机构操纵——中国股市机构与散户的博弈分析

中国股市中 ,股票二级市场价格常常在短期内发生剧烈变化。这种现象产生的原因在于 ,在信息不对称情况下 ,机构通过操纵上市公司基本面信息来影响股票交易价格 ,以获得超额收益。鉴于机构之间信息不对称程度远远低于机构与散户之间信息不对称程度 ,发展机构投资者可以最终减少市场操纵行为 ,机构在投资者中所占比例与市场整体被操纵程度的关系可以用倒“U”形曲线表示。     

信息不对称下会计信息质量控制的博弈分析

信息不对称会导致逆向选择和道德风险,影响资源配置的效率.本文从博弈论的角度出发,重点对投资者与经营者之间、经营者与监管部门之间这两种博弈进行分析,指出会计信息不对称产生的原因以及采取什么措施来减少会计信息不对称以提高会计信息的质量.     

信息不对称下会计信息质量控制的博弈分析

信息不对称会导致逆向选择和道德风险,影响资源配置的效率。本文从博弈论的角度出发,重点对投资者与经营者之间、经营者与监管部门之间这两种博弈进行分析,指出会计信息不对称产生的原因以及采取什么措施来减少会计信息不对称以提高会计信息的质量。     

非对称信息下二手车交易市场博弈问题研究

文章分析了二手车交易市场中存在的信息不对称风险,并对二手车交易买方与经销商卖方之间的博弈关系进行了详细分析,最后在博弈分析的基础上得出结论,提出了最小化买卖双方信息不对称风险的政策建议。     

中国股票市场机构与散户的均衡策略及实证研究

证券市场作为一个政府、交易所、上市公司、机构和散户多方参与的博弈竞技场,各方必然要观察各参与方的行为策略并据此制定己方的行动战略。由于目前中国证券市场尚无做空机制,且股票供应紧俏,很多股票交易中都有机构主力参与的痕迹。机构利用信息和资金优势,在政策法律允许的范围内,尽力推高股价以诱使散户追涨是其最优策略的理性选择。而散户在信息严重不对称的劣势下,其后验信念的修正往往会受到机构信号的误导,博弈所要求的最优策略行动实际上是很难达到的,故个体投资者无疑是证券市场最大的受害者。     

会计信息稳健性博弈分析

稳健性是最重要的会计信息质量特征之一。会计信息使用者对会计信息稳健度的要求各不相同。为了自身利益最大化,企业不同利益主体必然就会计信息稳健性问题进行博弈。会计信息的稳健性是不同利益主体博弈的结果。     

中国证券市场有效性实证分析

我国证券市场有效性的实证研究,不仅可以反映其信息披露程度,为管理层制定相关政策提供依据,而且为诸如CAPM理论的研究、指数型基金的设立、股票期权的执行等证券市场的有关问题研究提供了强有力的支持。     

Derivative securities and cash market stability

This study investigates the effect of introducing interest-rate futures and options on the price variances in related financial cash markets. Standard research approaches to this issue relate cash-price stability before the introduction of futures and options trading to cash-price stability after trading in the derivative security begins. However, controlling for the additional factors that may also effect cash markets is difficult. The approach employed here to deal with this obstacle is motivated by recent theoretical research relating cash and futures markets, but hitherto not operationalized to empirically test for a relationship between the markets. Varying-parameter models of (1) the demand for short-term Treasury securities, (2) the demand for large time-deposits, and (3) the supply of large time-deposits are specified such that changes in the parameters imply changes in the volatility of the cash price. These parameters are modelled as functions of the trading volume of interest-rate futures and options, thereby enabling a direct test of the hypothesis that trading volume in these derivative securities influences the behaviour of cash-market participants, and therefore, cash-price volatility. We find no convincing evidence that the level of activity in interest-rate futures and options has a significant effect on these cash markets.     

Conservative traders,natural selection and market efficiency

This paper examines the impact of conservative traders on market efficiency in an evolutionary model of a commodity futures market. This paper shows that the long-run market outcome is informationally efficient, as long as in every period there is a positive probability that entering traders are more conservative than their predecessors. Conservative traders are those who correctly predict the spot price with a positive probability, and more importantly, who in their mistakes err on the side of caution, and rarely overpredict the spot price as buyers, and underpredict the spot price as sellers. This result does not require entry of traders with better information than their predecessors.     

我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的分析

在市场经济中,利率市场化对证券金融市场的改革和发展有着重要而深远的意义。目前,我国利率市场化改革已经进入实质性的攻坚阶段由,由实行利率管制逐步演化到利率市场化。探究我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的实质性关系,阐明我国利率市场化作用于证券市场的机制、改革进程及风险防范,对建构科学、健康、有序的证券市场有借鉴意义。     

Portfolio selection in a lognormal securities market

Conclusion This paper, therefore, once again establishes the usefulness of the two parameter distributions in the analysis of portfolio selection and taxation. Assuming a lognormal securities market and a chance-constrained portfolio choice model, we derive the well known results of portfolio separation and the effects of taxation which were earlier obtained under more restrictive mean-variance assumptions.This paper, an earlier version of which was presented at the 8th International Symposium on Mathematical Programming, Stanford University, August 27–31, 1973, is based on a chapter of the author's Ph. D. thesis (Ahsan, 1974). The author is grateful to S. Ahmad, A. B. Atkinson, C. J. Bliss, D. W. Butterfield, A. L. Robb, T. Russell and W. M. Scarth for helpful comments.     

Dividends in the theory of derivative securities pricing

This paper develops the fundamental aspects of the theory of martingale pricing of derivative securites in a setting where the cumulative gains processes are Itô processes while the cumulative dividend processes of both the underliers and the derivative securities are general enough to cover all cases encountered in practical applications. A key ingredient is a general formula for how to change the unit of account of a cumulative dividend process. The formula is inconsistent with parts of the earlier literature. It obeys a unit-invariance rule for trading strategies, satisfies a consistency property when the unit is changed twice in a row, gives the correct results in well-known and uncontroversial special cases, and fits perfectly into a generalization of the martingale valuation theory. Using that generalized theory, we show that the value of a dividend process equals the value of a claim to the nominal amount of dividends yet to be accumulated plus the value of a flow of interest on the cumulative dividends at each point in time.     

证券一级市场运行特点与发展趋势

2001年一级市场概况2001年共发行A股67只,募集资金56373亿元,新发行A股家数和募集资金比上年的141家和826亿元有较大幅度的下降。     

中国证券市场机构投资者的羊群行为研究

“羊群行为”是金融市场上一个令人困惑的现象,长期以来,投资者的羊群行为一直被认为是导致股票市场剧烈波动和引发市场系统风险的一个重要原因。以往对美国金融市场的研究表明,机构投资者在进行投资时存在典型的羊群效应,而研究表明我国证券市场中机构投资者的羊群行为更加典型。对这个问题作一个文献综述,并在此基础上进一步作理论研究和政策分析。