The effects of U.S. monetary policy on Colombia and Panama (2002–2007)

I study the economies of Colombia (floating exchange rate) and Panama (dollarized) to illustrate how the monetary policy of a large economy can export capital structure distortions to small open economies that follow different exchange rate regimes. The paper contributes to the literature on international business cycles in two ways. First, it adds to recent research that extends the Mises–Hayek business cycle theory to an international context. Second, most current research abstracts from effects on the production structures of emerging market economies when analyzing the transmission of monetary policy shocks. This paper seeks to fill this gap by studying structural effects of U.S. monetary policy on the economies of Colombia (floating exchange rate) and Panama (dollarized).     

Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?

In this study, we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of household loan delinquency for home ownership, credit card and auto loans for the U.S. states in a panel framework over a period from 2003 through 2017. In particular, we examine the impact of consumer sentiments on loan delinquency rates. We show that improved current consumer sentiment significantly induce lower mortgage, credit card and automobile loan defaults in the American states subdivided into four different regions. We also find that the higher overall and expected consumer sentiment raise loan delinquencies. Implicit in this finding is the apparently excessive and inappropriate expansion of loans in the U.S. economy in the face of consumers’ optimism, which in turn, provides an intuitive understanding of the circumstances that could precede a depression or outbreak of anomalies in the financial sector. Our general findings further exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and mostly adverse effect of per capita income on mortgage and automobile loan delinquency rates. The results provide some compelling evidence with regard to the effect of consumer confidence on household credit delinquency rates across various states in the U.S. and are robust to alternative measures of income and mortgage rates.     

The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007

A vector autoregression with time-varying parameters is used to characterize changes in Federal Reserve policy that occurred from 2000 through 2007 and describe how they affected the performance of the U.S. economy. Declining coefficients in the model׳s estimated policy rule point to a shift in the Fed׳s emphasis away from stabilizing inflation over this period. More importantly, however, the Fed held the federal funds rate persistently below the values prescribed by this rule. Under this more discretionary policy, inflation overshot its target and the funds rate followed a path reminiscent of the “stop-go” pattern that characterized Fed behavior prior to 1979.     

Regression evidence of safety-net support in Canada and the U.S., 1893–1992

Using annual deviations between the stock market and accounting valuations of major banks, this paper constructs synthetic century-long time series for the intangible safety-net capital generated by reporting and supervisory policies in Canada and the U.S. The credibility of the modeling exercise that produces these synthetic time series is supported by evidence that, in each country, all sustained surges in the value of estimated safety-net capital correlate in appropriate ways with regulatory events and crisis pressures. We invite others to test the qualitative usefulness of our framework by applying the method to data from other countries.     

Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy

We analyze the connectedness between the real and the financial sectors of the U.S. economy. Using the weekly ADS index of the Philadelphia Fed (the widely used business conditions indicator) to represent the real side, we find that during times of financial distress and business cycle turning points, the direction of connectedness runs from the real sector to financial markets. The ADS index is derived from a model containing a measure of term structure along with real variables. Therefore, it might not be the best representative of the real activity used in the connectedness analysis. As an alternative, we derive a real activity index (RAI) from a dynamic factor model of the real sector variables only. The behavior of RAI over time is quite similar to that of the ADS index. When we include RAI to represent the real side, connectedness from the real side to financial markets weakens substantially, while the connectedness from financial markets to the real side becomes more pronounced.     

Stock Repurchase and the Role of Signaling： A Comparative Analysis between U.S. and China

This paper compares different methods used for stock repurchase and examines the role of signaling in the U.S. and China＇s capital markets. We find that the ways to buyback stocks are very different in the two countries. Most U.S. stocks are repurchased through open market and the signals sent to the market through open market repurchase are getting weaker. Even though stock repurchases are at their early stage in the Chinese stock market and the dominated way to buyback is through a negotiated repurchase agreement for non-floating shares, the power of signaling seems much stronger. Examining stock prices pre- and post-repurchase, we find that stock repurchase records an average abnormal return of 3.42% on the announcement date and 3.24% on the date of actual renurchase.     

Social responsibility: U.S. power plants 1985–1998

This study introduces an Environmental Performance Index (EPI) to assess the performance of firms that produce both good and bad outputs. In the one good output one bad output case, the EPI simplifies to the ratio of good–bad output for period t + 1 and period t. After deriving the index, data for U.S. coal-fired power plants from 1985 to 1998 are used to demonstrate insights that the EPI can provide. We find that power plants with units participating in Phase I of the Acid Rain Program experience a dramatic improvement in their EPI during 1994–1995.

How can big data enhance the timeliness of official statistics?: The case of the U.S. consumer price index

The daily consumer price index (CPI) produced by the Billion Prices Project (BPP CPI) offers a glimpse of the direction taken by consumer price inflation in real time. This is in contrast to the official U.S. CPI, which is compiled monthly and released with an average of a three-week delay following the end of the reference month. A recent body of research contended that the movements of online prices are representative of those of offline retail prices, making the BPP CPI a natural candidate for accurately improving the timeliness of the official CPI. We assess the predictive content of the BPP CPI using a variety of MIDAS models that accommodate data sampled at different frequencies. These models generate estimates that remain robust to the variety of time periods considered and, by the standard of the existing literature, contribute to a significant upgrade in the forecast accuracy of official consumer price inflation figures. The paper then sketches the broad implications of BPP CPI for the consumer price statistics maintained by national statistics offices and discusses how the proposed improvement in the timeliness of the official CPI fits in this perspective.     

The impact of government intervention on the stabilization of domestic financial markets and on U.S. banks’ asset composition

The 2007–2009 financial crisis that evolved from various factors including the housing boom, aggressive lending activity, financial innovation, and increased access to money and capital markets prompted unprecedented U.S. government intervention in the financial sector. We examine changes in banks’ balance sheet composition associated with U.S. government intervention during the crisis. We find that the initial round of quantitative easing positively impacts bank liquidity across all bank samples. Our results show a positive impact of repurchase agreement market rates on bank liquidity for small and medium banks. We conclude that banks have become more liquid in the post-crisis period, especially the larger banks (large and money center banks). We show that real estate loan portfolio exposures have reverted to pre-crisis levels for money center banks and remained flat for all other bank samples.     

Expense preference behavior and management “outsourcing”: a comparison of adopters and non-adopters of contract management in U.S. hospitals

Specialized managerial expertise, coupled with the threat of non-renewal should improve efficiency in firms that opt for contract management arrangements. To examine this we apply a generalized version of tests for expense preference behavior to U.S. hospitals in the 1990s. Extending prior literature, we create a quasi-experimental design for a comparison of adopters and non-adopters of contracts using propensity score methods. We generate the distribution of ‘expense preference’ parameters for all contract adopters in both the pre- and post-adoption states, and for a matched control group of non-adopters over the same period. Our results show that contract adoption leads to reduced expense preference behavior, but that this result depends critically on the input being examined.

Convergence of public and private enterprise wages in a transition economy: Evidence from a distributional decomposition in Vietnam, 2002–2014

We examine the transition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam during the period 2002–2014 from a wage perspective by decomposing the differences in wage distributions between SOE employees and non-SOE employees. Although SOE employees received higher pay in 2002 because of differences in the characteristics and residuals, the differences in coefficients were minimal along the wage distribution during 2002–2014. The differences in characteristics decreased over time in the middle and middle-to-high wage distribution groups. University graduates were the main contributor to the difference in endowments. By 2014, the residuals difference vanished and the pay schemes between SOEs and non-SOEs converged.     

Productivity Dynamics: U.S. Manufacturing Plants, 1972–1986

This paper presents an analysis of the dynamics of total factor productivity measures for large plants in SICs 35, 36 and 38. Several TFP measures, derived from production functions and Solow type residuals, are computed and their behavior over time is compared, using non-parametric tools. Aggregate TFP, which has grown substantially over the time period, is compared with average plant level TFP, which has declined or remained flat. Using transition matrices, the persistence of plant productivity is examined, and it is shown how the transition probabilities vary by industry, plant age, and other characteristics.     

Markov-switching and the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?

We show that, for a class of univariate and multivariate Markov-switching models, exact calculation of the Beveridge–Nelson (BN) trend/cycle components is possible. The key to exact BN trend/cycle decomposition is to recognize that the latent first-order Markov-switching process in the model has an AR(1) representation, and that the model can be cast into a state-space form. Given the state-space representation, we show that impulse-response function analysis can be processed with respect to either an asymmetric discrete shock or to a symmetric continuous shock. The method presented is applied to Kim, Morley, Piger’s [Kim, C.-J., Morley, J., Piger, J., 2005. Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 291–309] univariate Markov-switching model of real GDP with a post-recession ‘bounce-back’ effect and Cochrane’s [Cochrane, J.H., 1994. Permanent and transitory components of GNP and stock prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 241–263] vector error correction model of real GDP and real consumption extended to incorporate Markov-switching. The parameter estimates, the BN trend/cycle components, and the impulse-response function analysis for each of these empirical models suggest that the persistence of US real GDP has increased since the mid-1980’s.     

An error-correction model of the demand for equity mutual funds in the U.S. 1973–1994

The purpose of this paper is to estimate an error-correction model of the U.S. demand for equity mutual funds. Using annual data for the period 1973–1994, this study finds that changes in the demand for equity mutual funds have been significantly influenced by the changes in the rate of return on equity mutual funds and savings deposits, as well as by the growth in income over the long run. The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee of this journal for many useful comments and suggestions.     

Do buyer cooperative actions matter under relational stress? Evidence from Japanese and U.S. assemblers in the U.S. automotive industry

Buyers can create relational stress even as they work cooperatively with suppliers. This study investigates the moderating effects of relational stress on the ability of buyer-initiated cooperative actions to influence a supplier's willingness to invest in technology that will be of benefit to the buyer. Data on 2012 buying situations were collected from Tier 1 suppliers to three U.S. domestic automotive assemblers (Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors) and three Japanese transplant automotive assemblers (Honda, Nissan, and Toyota) over three consecutive years (2003–2005). The results indicate that (1) buyer-initiated cooperative actions of communication, assistance, and supplier involvement increase a supplier's willingness to invest in technology, (2) the relationship-enhancing effect of buyer assistance increases under high relational stress, while the effectiveness of buyer communication decreases, and (3) that the effect of supplier involvement is not significantly influenced by relational stress levels. Furthermore, we found that supplier relations with Japanese transplant assemblers are characterized by higher levels of cooperative actions, lower levels of relational stress, and higher levels of supplier willingness to invest in technology when compared to those of U.S. domestic assemblers.     

Measuring the Measurable: Why can’t we Agree on the Number of Telecommuters in the U.S.?

Using telecommuting as a case study, we demonstrate that definitions, measurement instruments, sampling and sometimes vested interests affect the quality and utility even of seemingly objective and “measurable” data. Little consensus exists with respect to the definition of telecommuting, or to possible distinctions from related terms such as teleworking. Such a consensus is unlikely, since the “best” definition of telecommuting depends on one’s point of reference and purpose. However, differing definitions confound efforts to measure the amount of telecommuting and how it is changing over time. This paper evaluates estimates of the amounts of telecommuting occurring in the U.S. obtained from several different sources: the U.S. Census, the American Housing Survey, several Work at Home supplements to the Current Population Survey, a series of market research surveys, and the trade association-sponsored Telework America surveys. Many of the issues raised here are transferable to other contexts, and indirectly serve as suggestions for improving data collection in the future.     

Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆

We examine the tail risk spillovers between Canada and U.S. stock markets using over a century data, and also account for the roles of tail risks of other advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, and the UK) and oil-market tail risk. We use the “best” tail risk measure obtained from different variants of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model developed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) in the predictive model and compare its performance with that of an AR(1) benchmark model. We find strong evidence of risk spillovers between the two stock markets. We find contrasting evidence for the predictability of oil-market tail risk, with positive predictability in case of the net oil exporter and negative in case of the net oil importer. Further results using tail risks of other advanced economies (combined) support possible diversification potential for Canadian stocks in the presence of market risks of advanced economies other than the U.S. Our findings have implications for investors and are robust to various out-of-sample forecast horizons, alternative data frequencies, data splits, and 1% and 5% VaRs.     

Relative productivity growth and the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing

There has been considerable debate about the causes of the “decline” of U.S. manufacturing over the post-war period. We show that the behavior of employment, prices and output in manufacturing relative to services over this period can be explained by a two-sector growth model in which productivity shocks are the only driving forces. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in our model. The data are consistent with a specification where households are unwilling to substitute goods for services (the estimated elasticity of substitution is statistically indistinguishable from zero), so the economy adjusts to differential productivity growth entirely by re-allocating labor across sectors.