Under-or-overreaction: Market responses to announcements of earnings surprises

We test whether the well-documented market reaction to the announcements of earnings surprises is a manifestation of an investor underreaction or overreaction to extremely good or bad earnings news. Using the market reaction in the three-day period surrounding the announcements of extreme earnings surprises (i.e., SUE) in quarter Q_t as a reference point, we show that firms reporting a high (low) SUE in subsequent quarter Q_t + 1 that confirms their initial quarter Q_t SUE ranking in the same highest or lowest SUE quintiles generate an incremental price run that moves in the same direction as that of the initial SUE. However, the price impact of the confirming SUE signal is weaker than that of its initial SUE. Our findings are robust to the Fama-French three-factor daily regression extended by the momentum factor and a number of other robustness tests. Our result is not consistent with the prevalent view that investors underreact to earnings news. To the contrary, the evidence suggests an initial investor overreaction to extreme SUE signals.     

Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?

This paper examines the relative risk of good-news firms, i.e., those with high standardized unexpected earnings (SUE), and bad-news (low SUE) firms using a stochastic discount factor approach. We find that a stochastic discount factor constructed from a set of basis assets helps explain post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). The risk exposures on the pricing kernel increase monotonically from the lowest to highest SUE sorted portfolios. Specifically, good-news firms always have higher risk exposures than bad-news firms in both 10 SUE sorted portfolios and 25 size and SUE sorted portfolios. However, the estimated expected risk premium is too small to explain the observed magnitude of returns on the PEAD strategy. Our risk adjustment can explain only about one-fourth of the total magnitude of the average realized return to the PEAD strategy. As a result, the average risk-adjusted returns of earnings momentum strategies are mostly positive and significant. Overall, our results support the view that at least some portion of the returns to the earnings momentum strategies examined represent compensation for bearing increased risk.     

Inflation Illusion and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift

This paper examines the cross‐sectional implications of the inflation illusion hypothesis for the post‐earnings‐announcement drift. The inflation illusion hypothesis suggests that stock market investors fail to incorporate inflation in forecasting future earnings growth rates, and this causes firms whose earnings growths are positively (negatively) related to inflation to be undervalued (overvalued). We argue and show that the sensitivity of earnings growth to inflation varies monotonically across stocks sorted on standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) and, consistent with the inflation illusion hypothesis, show that lagged inflation predicts future earnings growth, abnormal returns, and earnings announcement returns of SUE‐sorted stocks. Interestingly, controlling for the return predictive ability of inflation weakens the ability of lagged SUE to predict future returns of SUE‐sorted stocks.     

THE EARNINGS-PRICE AND STANDARDIZED UNEXPECTED EARNINGS EFFECTS: ONE ANOMALY OR TWO?

In this paper prior work on earnings-price (E/P) and standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) anomalies is re-examined and extended. A relation between excess returns and E/P is tested controlling for SUE. Results suggest that both anomalies are still present in the data, and that the E/P effect exists independently of the most recent earnings surprise.     

Serial Correlation in Management Earnings Forecast Errors

We examine whether management earnings forecast errors exhibit serial correlation and how analysts understand the serial correlation property of management forecast errors (MFEs). MFEs should not exhibit serial correlation if managers efficiently process information in prior forecast errors and truthfully convey their earnings expectations through management forecasts. However, for long‐horizon management forecasts of annual earnings, we find significantly positive serial correlation in MFEs, and sample self‐selection does not seem to drive this phenomenon. Further analyses suggest that managers’ unintentional information processing bias contributes to this positive serial correlation. Analysts anticipate the intertemporal persistence of MFEs but underestimate the persistence level when reacting to management forecasts. Our findings have implications for market participants who rely on management forecasts to form earnings expectations, and also shed light on the efficiency of managerial decision making.     

Short-Selling Prior to Earnings Announcements

This paper examines short‐sales transactions in the five days prior to earnings announcements of 913 Nasdaq‐listed firms. The tests provide evidence of informed trading in pre‐announcement short‐selling because they reveal that abnormal short‐selling is significantly linked to post‐announcement stock returns. Also, the tests indicate that short‐sellers typically are more active in stocks with low book‐to‐market valuations or low SUEs. The levels of pre‐announcement short‐selling, however, mostly appear to reflect firm‐specific information rather than these fundamental financial characteristics. We believe that these results should encourage financial market regulators to consider providing more extensive and timely disclosures of short‐selling to investors.     

The Effect of Multinationality on Security Analyst Underreaction

Previous research presented evidence of bias and positive serial correlation in forecast errors suggesting that analysts do not properly recognize the time–series properties of earnings when setting expectations of future earnings. A reason for the security analyst underreaction is the level of multinationality of the firm's activities. This study shows that analysts underreact to prior information more as the level of multinationality of the firm examined increases.     

The intraday speed of adjustment of stock prices to earnings and dividend announcements

This paper examines the effects of Broad Tape news releases of earnings and dividend announcements on three aspects of intraday stock price behavior: mean returns, return variance, and serial correlation in consecutive price changes. The initial price reaction is evident in the first pair of price changes following the release (i.e., within a few minutes, at most). The returns earned by simple trading rules dissipate within five to ten minutes, although significant returns are detected in the overnight period and at the opening of trading on the next day. Disturbances in the variance and serial correlation persist for several hours and extend into the following trading day. As a class, dividend announcements induce much less activity than do earnings, although the response to dividend changes is comparable to the earnings announcement effect.     

Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?

In this paper, we propose a rational learning‐based explanation for the predictability in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors documented in prior literature. In particular, we argue that the serial correlation pattern in analysts' quarterly earnings forecast errors is consistent with an environment in which analysts face parameter uncertainty and learn rationally about the parameters over time. Using simulations and real data, we show that the predictability evidence is more consistent with rational learning than with irrationality (fixation on a seasonal random walk model or some other dogmatic belief).     

Information content of credit ratings in pricing of future earnings

This paper examines whether credit ratings convey information about the firm’s future earnings to the capital markets. Using the future earnings response coefficient methodology, we find that the current stock returns of rated firms reflect more future earnings than do the stock returns of non-rated firms. We also find that the market reflect more future earnings in current returns for higher-rated firms. In addition, we present evidence that returns impound future earnings to a greater extent after a ratings initiation or upgrade. We empirically eliminate the possibility that our findings are driven by earnings smoothing, market liquidity or omitted default risk factors associated with ratings. Our results are robust to controlling for potential omitted variables, endogeneity bias, loss versus profit firms, and serial correlation of error terms. Overall, the evidence suggests that credit ratings help disseminate private information to reduce information uncertainty about the firm’s future profitability among market participants.     

会计盈余的规模、账面／市值因素实证研究——来自中国上市公司的经验数据

本文尝试将资本资产定价三因素模型的思想运用于研究会计盈余的影响因素,通过对1991—2003年我国的上市公司会计盈余的实证分析,发现在A股市场:规模和账面/市值因素显著地存在于上市公司会计盈余当中;账面/市值因素的作用要更显著于规模因素;低账面/市值的上市公司倾向于保持强盈利能力;在账面/市值组的内部,资本市场化规模大的股票比小的会计盈余更高;在同一市场资本化规模组内部,随着账面/市值比率的提高,账面/市值对会计盈余的影响,由反向变为正向,影响力也逐步增强。     

Sources of earnings variability and their effect on earnings forecasts

Previous research shows that analysts’ forecasts of earnings do not fully incorporate information contained in reported earnings variability. This study investigates whether the inefficient forecast is because of a failure to incorporate observable information on two components of earnings variability: variability in operating performance and income smoothing. Our results show that analysts’ forecasts fully incorporate information contained in earnings variability for firms with high income smoothing and for firms with low operating variability. A smaller serial correlation of forecast errors is observed for firms with low operating variability, which suggests that analysts recognize the permanence in earnings for such firms.     

INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE OF COMMON STOCKS IN RELATION TO INSIDER OWNERSHIP

In this paper, the authors empirically examine whether corporations with high degrees of insider ownership enjoy superior returns compared with firms with more diffuse ownership. In addition, the authors evaluate the effects of insider ownership on security returns in relations to the well-known effects of size and earnings yield (or price-earnings) ratios. Results indicate that, in addition to Basu's price-earnings effect, insider ownership is a new statistically significant variable that is associated with abnormal returns. This return anomaly might occur because the market pays an inadequate price for top managements' equity ownership, a firm-specific fundamental variable that has a theoretical foundation in agency theory.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

Firm Size and the Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements: Australian Evidence

Abstract:   We investigate the effect of firm size on the market's short‐window response to annual earnings announcements for a large sample of Australian listed companies. Our research design involves regressions of unexpected earnings against unexpected returns. Non‐linearity in the returns‐earnings relationship is incorporated and other factors known to affect the response to earnings announcements are controlled for. Contrary to prior US research, our results show that firm size has either no effect on the response to earnings announcements (3 day window) or the response is significantly stronger for larger firms (twenty‐one day window). The information content of earnings announcements is present across firm size categories but the nature of the response differs with firm size and context.     

Top Management Team Characteristics and Accrual-Based Earnings Management

This study examines how top management team (TMT) knowledge and average tenure affect accrual-based earnings management by investigating 4791 Taiwanese listed companies from 2006 to 2010. TMT members with more knowledge (higher education level, more accounting expertise, and greater prior top management experience) and longer average tenure have better performances and higher reputations, and are more aware of the litigation costs of earnings manipulations; therefore, they reduce managers' incentives to manage earnings (incentive-reduction effect). On the other hand, these TMT members are also likely to become entrenched and engage in more earnings manipulations (entrenchment-enhancing effect). The empirical results show that firms' TMT knowledge and average tenure are negatively associated with discretionary accruals, suggesting that the incentive-reduction effect is stronger than the entrenchment-enhancing effect, which makes TMT members less likely to engage in earnings management. Moreover, the above results are robust when employing different earnings management measures and suspect firm analyses, as well as considering endogeneity issues. Finally, the study suggests that the presence of a founding family may reduce the influences of TMT knowledge and average tenure on earnings management.     

VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE PRACTICES: THE USE OF PRO FORMA REPORTING

This article looks at how U.S. managers supplement GAAP earnings with pro forma reporting. Pro forma measures, which are not audited, are typically determined through an adjustment to GAAP-based earnings. For example, a manager may choose to present an alternative to GAAP earnings that excludes period write-offs and one-time restructuring charges in order to present a more value-relevant picture of the company's performance.
The authors find that 77% of S&P 500 companies report pro forma results, and that pro forma measures are generally given greater prominence than GAAP earnings in corporate press releases. Based on the evidence, U.S. managers are using pro forma reporting strategically to affect investor perception of corporate performance. The SEC has recently issued rules to ensure that pro forma disclosure is not misleading. The authors present some guidelines on voluntary disclosure that might help forestall further regulation and preserve the ability to pursue this potentially informative practice.     

Rational expectations and corporate dividend policy

The problem of expectations formation has been either ignored or treated with very restrictive assumptions in traditional dividend adjustment models. Since these models are typically used to explain the dividend decisions of individual firms, a more satisfactory treatment of the process of expectations formation is needed. In order to analyze the dynamic dividend adjustment process, this article proposes a model, more general than previous ones, that is consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. A nonlinear regression method is used to estimate the parameters of the model and to test the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis in dividend decisions making. The partial adjustment model with rational expectations explains dividend adjustments reasonably well. The overall results suggest that firms make use of available earnings information to form optimal future earnings forecasts; specifically, a firm's dividend adjustment process is completed in about two and a half quarters. This article also finds that the fourth-order serial correlation problem disappears after a generalized Tobit model is used for the parameter estimation.     

Reversing an impairment loss and earnings management: The role of corporate governance

This paper examines whether the reversal of a previously recognized impairment loss provides an opportunity for earnings management, and whether such behavior is associated with managers' incentives. It also examines whether a corporate-governance mechanism can mitigate this behavior. Since 2005, listed companies in Taiwan have been required to comply with accounting standards, equivalent to International Accounting Standards (IAS) No. 36 “Impairment of Assets,” which allow reversals of asset-impairment losses. Data on a sample of 55 firms that reversed impairment losses between 2005 and the first quarter of 2007 were matched by industry and size with 55 control firms. Empirical results show that firms recognizing more impairment losses are more likely to reverse impairment losses when doing so would avoid an earnings decline in a subsequent period, which is consistent with the “cookie jar” reserve hypothesis. We also show that such behavior is more pronounced for firms with higher debt ratios, consistent with earnings management being associated with the incentive to avoid violation of debt covenants. However, an effective corporate governance mechanism could mitigate such behavior. Our study may contribute to the debate on global convergence with IFRS, especially convergence between IFRS and U.S. GAAP with respect to the “Impairment of Assets,” by providing a rationale for the latter's prohibition of reversals. It may also contribute to the corporate-governance literature by showing the effect of governance mechanisms on deterring earnings management.     

Type of earnings management and the effect of ownership structure, firm size, and corporate-governance practices: Evidence from Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether companies listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) conduct efficient or opportunistic earnings management and to examine the effect of ownership structure, firm size, and corporate-governance practices on it.Using multiple regressions, we find evidence that the type of earnings management selected by JSE listed firms tends toward efficient earnings management. This evidence is inconsistent with the common view that earnings management in Indonesia is opportunistic. Family ownership has a significant influence on the type of earnings management selected. Firms with a high proportion of family ownership and non-business groups are more inclined to choose efficient earnings management than other types of firms. We find inconsistent evidence with regard to the impact of institutional ownership, firm size, and corporate-governance practices on type of earnings management.