THE EARNINGS-PRICE AND STANDARDIZED UNEXPECTED EARNINGS EFFECTS: ONE ANOMALY OR TWO?

In this paper prior work on earnings-price (E/P) and standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) anomalies is re-examined and extended. A relation between excess returns and E/P is tested controlling for SUE. Results suggest that both anomalies are still present in the data, and that the E/P effect exists independently of the most recent earnings surprise.     

SECURITY ANALYST FORECASTS AND THE EARNINGS YIELD ANOMALY

This paper tests for existence of a positive relationship between the earnings yield anomaly and the earnings forecast error (EFE) effect. The earnings yield anomaly recognizes that stocks with low price-earnings ratios produce positive risk-adjusted returns. The EFE effect refers to the positively related stock price response to differences in reported earnings per share (EPS) and the EPS previously forecast by security research analysts. The within group method is used in order to remove the effect of the EFE. Empirical research findings based on 1979-1988 data, indicate that the EFE effect does not account for the earnings yield anomaly.     

THE IMPACT OF UNEXPECTED EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ON ABNORMAL RETURNS TO EQUITY

This paper contributes to the empirical literature which documents the existence of a positive association between unexpected earnings and/or dividend announcements and abnormal returns to equity. The paper addresses some of the methodological limitations evident in the literature. In particular, one methodological difficulty encountered by previous studies is that since earnings and dividend announcements are usually made contemporaneously it is difficult to assess the marginal effect of either announcement on security returns. This problem is dealt with by constructing portfolios of securities which are randomized with respect to unexpected earnings (dividends), but which are systematically ranked on unexpected dividends (earnings). The results indicate that unexpected earnings announcements have a significant marginal impact on abnormal returns. In addition, there is evidence of an impact of unexpected dividends on returns, but it is weaker than unexpected earnings.     

THE EFFECTS OF DECIMALIZATION ON RETURN VOLATILITY COMPONENTS,SERIAL CORRELATION,AND TRADING COSTS

We examine the composition of return volatility, serial correlation, and trading costs before and after decimalization on the New York Stock Exchange. We decompose the variance of price changes into components associated with public news, rounding errors, and market‐making frictions. We find that when stocks move from a fractional to a decimal trading system, the variance components due to market‐making frictions and rounding errors decline significantly, whereas the component due to public news remains unchanged. The serial correlation of price changes weakens substantially after decimalization. The uninformed component of bid‐ask spreads decreases significantly whereas the informed component has no significant change.     

THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF SIGN AND SIZE OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS: NEW ZEALAND EVIDENCE

This paper examines the effect of 1196 earnings announcements on share prices, using the familiar cumulative abnormal return method of analysis. Earnings are partitioned into unexpected earnings increases and decreases using a martingale model. As well, six portfolios are established, based on the size of unexpected earnings, using two different measures of size.     

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS, FIRM SIZE, AND THE INFORMATIVENESS OF STOCK PRICES

The notion that prices impound a wide array of information, including market expectations, has led to earnings forecast models conditioned on prices. Yet, presumably, analysts' forecasts capture both public information and certain private information not previously impounded in prices. Accordingly, price-based models are seemingly an inefficient, and less effective, source of expecta-tions. This article investigates this hypothesis using financial analysts', price-based, and naive forecasts. Results indicate that analysts' forecasts (1) are at least as accurate as price-based and naive models, and (2) yield better expectations for market tests relating returns and earnings. These inferences are robust across different information environments. The evidence suggests that analysts either possess private information or are more effective information processors, or both.     

THE COST OF RETAINED EARNINGS: A FURTHER NOTE, AN ILLUSTRATION AND A COMPUTER PROGRAM

This paper presents the personal and corporate tax adjusted version of the cost of retained earnings, with particular reference to the problem of computing the effective rate of tax on a unit of pre tax profit when one allows for the delayed incidence of part of the tax impost. The argument is illustrated numerically and supported by a computer program which enables the user to consider and work out the effect of changing one or more variables. A term which appeared in a previous article (Lister 1981) is corrected.     

ON THE FUNCTIONAL FORM OF EARNINGS AND STOCK PRICES: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE E/P ANOMALY

This paper examines the functional form of earnings and stock prices on US and Finnish stock markets. Although the functional specification of the components of financial ratios based on purely accounting numbers has received considerable attention, the functional form of earnings and stock prices has not been investigated carefully enough. This investigation is, however, important because of the common use of E/P ratio in financial statement analysis. The empirical evidence provided by this study indicates that the proportional relationship between earnings and stock prices is rejected in both countries. In addition, it is discovered that this deviation from proportionality is a major factor producing the so-called E/P anomaly in these two countries.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE LIQUIDITY EFFECTS OF STOCK SPLITS AND STOCK DIVIDENDS

Currently, there is a limited amount of empirical evidence suggesting that stock splits are associated with a decline in trading liquidity. This evidence directly contrasts with managements' professed intentions for undertaking a split. The evidence to date, however, is of a short-run nature. This study reexamines the liquidity effects of stock splits and stock dividends by assessing both their short- and long-term effects on trading liquidity (i.e., proportional trading volume and percentage bid-ask spreads). The results suggest that stock dividends are associated with decreased proportional trading volume in both the short term and long term, but stock splits are not. The results also indicate that neither stock splits nor stock dividends have an effect on percentage bid-ask spreads.     

THE USE OF MULTIPLE INSTRUMENTS FOR MEASUREMENT OF EARNINGS FORECAST ERRORS, FIRM SIZE EFFECT AND THE QUALITY OF ANALYSTS'FORECAST ERRORS

This paper develops an instrumental variables framework to form a better proxy for earnings forecast errors. The key aspect of the approach is to extract information from alternative proxies for the same underlying variable, namely a portion of realized earnings signals unexpected by the market. We use signs of various proxies for earnings forecast errors obtained from different time-series forecasting models as multiple instruments. The results show that the instrumental variables approach is effective for reducing measurement errors inherent in various proxies for earnings forecast errors. It produces not only a smaller magnitude but also a narrower dispersion of earnings forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that the instrumental variables approach performs better for small-firm samples than for large-firm samples. Finally, we observe that analysts' forecast errors seasoned with the signs of various time-series forecast errors (as well as the signs of their own forecast errors) outperform those without seasoning. This indicates that analysts' forecast errors can still be improved by employing the instrumental variables technique.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SECURITIES YIELDS, FIRM SIZE, EARNINGS/PRICE RATIOS AND TOBIN'Sq

Several studies in financial economics have found a positive relationship between stock returns and firm size. This relationship persists even after controlling for various measures of risk. There is also a well documented inverse relationship between stock returns and the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. However, there is still substantial controversy whether the size effect subsumes the P/E effect or vice versa. In this paper, we demonstrate that neither the size nor the P/E effect subsumes the other. We introduce Tobin's q as a variable that is closely related to stock returns as well as to both the size and P/E effects and show that the size effect persists after controlling for both P/E and q , while the P/E effect becomes much smaller after controlling for size and q . This leads us to conclude that the size effect is more robust to additional controls such as Tobin's q than the P/E effect. Finally, the size effect is almost entirely a January phenomenon whereas the P/E effect is a non-January effect.     

EFFECTS OF AGENCY AND TRANSACTION COSTS ON DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS: FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE AGENCY-TRANSACTION COST HYPOTHESIS

In this study we replicate and extend an agency-transaction cost model of dividend payout previously hypothesized and supported in the literature. We find no statistical difference between the estimated regression model obtained for the original seven-year sample period, 1974–80, and that obtained for our seven-year period, 1981–87. The latter period is characterized by significantly lower inflation, stronger economic growth, and lower taxes. The intertemporal stability of the model suggests that it is useful for predicting dividend payout at the individual firm level.