区域化对经济增长影响的研究

近二十年来,伴随全球化的发展,区域化格局更为突出,二者引发全球生产要素再配置和贸易格局发生重要转变,对全球经济产生深刻影响。本文通过运用高级宏观经济学基本原理,用数据和模型对区域化分析,着重对区域化对生产增长的影响进行了研究。     

The impact of basic and social infrastructure investment on South African economic growth and development

Basic and social infrastructure investment can assist in addressing widespread inequality and divided societies by promoting economic growth and social development. The aim of this study is to determine whether basic and social infrastructure investment differently affect economic growth and social development indicators of urban and rural municipalities. We used a balanced panel dataset containing infrastructure, economic, demographic and social indicators for rural and urban municipalities for the period from 1996 to 2012. Principal component analysis was used to construct synthetic indices of basic and social infrastructure. Restricted within least squares dummy variable estimation techniques are used to evaluate the differences between urban and rural municipalities. The elasticities of basic and social infrastructure investment generally are more pronounced for economic growth and social development indicators in rural municipalities. These findings could potentially influence policy decisions in terms of infrastructure investment in favour of rural municipalities to increase economic growth and social development.     

Finnish prohibition as an economic policy issue

Abstract

The experience of the Finnish Prohibition Act, which was in force from 1919 to 1932, shows that Finnish prohibition was not simply a question of ethics or morals, but was influenced in great measure by questions of economic policy. It can also be said that prohibition and the expedience of ‘going dry’ were examined from the economic viewpoint not only at the time in 1931 when the political decision-makers were deciding whether or not the experiment should be continued, but had been seen and discussed in this light right from the time of the passing of the Act.     

The empirics of growth

Summary This study explores the long-run dynamics of economic growth, with particular reference to The Netherlands. The time span covered extends backwards to the mid-nineteenth century, using new time series on disaggregated physical and human capital stocks for the period 1850-1913. Economic growth in the nineteenth century is shown to have had a strong physical capital-using bias, initially concentrated in buildings and infrastructure. The close relationship between investment in machinery and economic growth did not begin to take shape until the end of the nineteenth century, to increase in strength in the course of the twentieth century.An earlier version of this article was published as a research memorandum of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GD 12), University of Groningen, October 1994. This article is based on research sponsored by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, and by the Foundation of Economic, Social, and Spatial Sciences (ESR), which is part of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). For helpful comments, we thank Jan Jacobs, Professor W.H. Buiter, Bart van Ark, Rainer Fremdling, participants of the Economic History colloquium at the University of Groningen and of the European Historical Economics Society's Summer School 1994 (Florence), especially Professor Alan Taylor (Northwestern University), participants of the Quantitative Economic History Conference 1995 (Cambridge U.K.), and two anonymous referees. Of course, the usual disclaimer holds.     

Catching up to the European core: Portuguese economic growth, 1910–1990

This paper analyses the causes of Portuguese catching-up to the European core, in the 20th century, within a growth accounting framework. It concludes that investment in human and physical capital was the main driving force of economic growth and that variation in output growth rates are attributable to changes in total factor productivity growth. The paper explains the decline in TFP growth after 1973 in terms of structural change in the industrial sector.     

The equipment hypothesis and US economic growth

In several articles published in the 1990s, de Long and Summers argued that investment in producer durables had a high propensity to generate externalities in using industries, resulting in a systematic and substantial divergence between its social and private return. They maintained, moreover, that this was not the case for structures investment. Together, these claims constitute the equipment hypothesis. This paper explores the degree to which the history of US economic growth in the 20th century supports it.     

Serbia on the path to modern economic growth

Given the scanty and inadequate studies on Serbia's growth performance before the First World War, this paper presents production-side GDP estimates for Serbia for six years between 1867 and 1910. It probes into the growth dynamics, assessing convergence with the more developed countries of north-western Europe, as well as progress towards achieving modern economic growth. Although the economy showed some dynamism in terms of overall GDP, per capita GDP in pre-First World War Serbia grew by only 0.28 per cent per annum, as much of the overall GDP growth was eroded by rapid population growth. Far from converging with north-western Europe, Serbia continued to fall behind. Sluggish structural transformation and slow income per capita growth suggest that Serbia's transition to modern economic growth was in its infancy. Growth in the dominant agricultural sector was extensive, driven by expanding arable land and population growth. Land was affordable and easy to obtain; hence, peasants invested little in new technologies. Meanwhile, the modern industrial and service sectors were below a threshold that could sustain rapid growth. Nevertheless, this study also highlights the rapid expansion of a small modern sector and export diversification that reflected emergent ‘green shoots’ in 1905–10.     

Social protection,redistribution and economic growth

Social protection has conventionally been associated with redistribution and equity. This paper examines the effects of different types of social protection on economic growth. It looks at the possible effects on human capital formation, on physical investment and innovation, on the local economy and on the macroeconomy, discusses these effects in theory and reviews empirical evidence of such effects. It considers the widely varying impacts that different types of social protection can have on the distribution of incomes and on economic growth. The paper concludes that, in analysing, assessing and planning social protection, it is crucially important to consider the potential drawbacks – and the benefits.     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

The relationship between human capital and the economic growth in China

Human capital is one of the most important factors to promote economic growth. It is critical both on theory and practice to study how human capital investment and accumulation promote the economic growth in China. The thesis takes Lucas＇s Human Capital Spillover Model as the analysis tool. Through SPSS 14.0 software, it uses the serial data from 1992 to 2006 to analyze the human capital＇s correlation and contribution to the economic growth, so as to find out why the human capital contribution to economic growth is low. And then, in order to increase the human capital accumulation, it puts forward the relative strategies which include paying more attention to the importance of human capital, greatly developing education, improving the quality of human capital and investing more on the human capital of enterprises.     

试论国有投资公司不良债权的调整机制

随着人口的不断增加、土地的逐渐减少和经济的快速发展 ,粮食供给将严重危及国家的稳定和经济的发展。要彻底改变这一状况 ,必须实现农业经济增长方式的转变。本文通过对农业经济增长方式的理论和变迁的研究 ,探讨在我国实现农业集约经营的方向和途径     

FDI、对外贸易对中部经济增长影响的实证分析

本文利用中部地区1993年至2007年年度样本数据,应用协整理论及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学方法,定量分析了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,中部地区经济增长在短期内与对外贸易互为Granger原因,而外商直接投资在短期内与中部经济增长不构成Granger因果关系;经济增长对对外贸易的波动冲击表现出较大的正向效应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小,同时方差分解也表明对外贸易在中部经济增长预测误差的方差贡献度中所占比重最大。     

FDI结构性转变是否促进经济增长

随着经济结构日趋服务化,我国外商直接投资结构发生了深刻变化,外商直接投资逐步从制造业转向服务业。本文基于内生经济增长模型,运用系统GMM两步法,考察了FDI结构性转变对经济增长影响,并利用2004--2010年省级面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果显示：（1）FDI流向服务业有利于整体劳动生产率增长;（2）我国FDI的结构性转变对制造业劳动生产率的提升作用显著,对服务业生产率的促进作用尚未体现;（3）FDI结构变迁存在明显的地域差异,东部地区与西部地区FDI结构性转变对劳动生产率的促进作用显著。本文的研究为提高我国服务业发展绩效,优化产业结构以及经济增长方式的转型升级提供了可行路径,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

Why geography matters to the economic history of India

That geography shapes long-run economic change is almost an axiom in economic history, but there is neither adequate understanding nor much agreement about how this influence works. This article is an attempt to contextualise Indian economic history against what we now know of this influence. It is also an attempt to define the geographical condition of the South Asia region in a manner compatible with the purpose of economic history, which is to explain the deep roots of economic growth and inequality.     

The industrial revolution and the Netherlands: Why did it not happen?

Why was the Netherlands not a leader in the first Industrial Revolution (1760-1830) despite its advanced economy in the eighteenth century? This paper argues that the Industrial Revolution in its early stages required a close cooperation between knowledge of nature and its application to technology. The closeness of natural philosophers, engineers, and entrepreneurs was a key to success in Britain. In the Netherlands, a combination of cultural relics from the Golden Age and unfortunate political events after 1780 combined to delay the technological development. As a small, open economy, the country eventually overcame its obstacles and joined modern western industrial progress after 1860.     

The Evolution of an Intellectual Community Through the Words of Its Founders: Recollections of Australia's Economic History Field

Analysing the dynamic evolution of a scholarly field requires an understanding of the social interactions within its community as well as the impact of the written word. Influence might diffuse through mentoring, graduate supervision, seminar discussion, and management roles. To date, our knowledge of the growth of economic history in Australia after 1945 draws heavily upon the impact of a number of key publications. We interview a broad selection of academics who worked in the field of Australian economic history, approximately 1950–90, to provide a fuller understanding of the evolution of this interdisciplinary field. Our results confirm, complement and, in some cases, challenge conventional views. © 2016 Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd     

我国纺织品出口对经济增长的实证研究

本文利用协整理论，采用1978～2002年的数据，对我国纺织品出口与经济增长进行了实证研究，研究表明：我国纺织品出口和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，纺织品出口促进了经济增长，但是纺织品出口与经济增长之间并无因果关系。因此，我国应该采取相应对策，使纺织品出口对经济增长的促进作用更大。     

论点摘编

●长沙交通学院李春森认为 :法规制度建立的目的并不是惩处谁 ,它只不过是维护公司正常的经营管理秩序 ,确保投资人、职工的利益和企业整体经济效益的手段 ,因此在建立企业责任追究制度同时应建立预防违法违规的行为控制机制和完善其他配套企业管理制度。预警系统有利于防微杜渐 ,防止少数人不良思想的得逞。在有关会议和场合要对公司各级负责人进行必要的思想教育 ,树立正确的价值观。企业的各项经济活动要有良好的制度机制 ,权力的运用必须受到监督和制约 ,办事程序应公开化 ,有利于避免决策失误 ,防止少数人营私舞弊及出现管理上的漏洞。…     

效率与公平问题的理论及实践探讨

本文介绍了新增长理论这一目前经济学发展的最新领域 ,包括新增长理论的兴起的背景 ,以及新增长理论的五大研究思路。文章结合新增长理论的要点重点分析了新增长理论对我国经济发展与赶超的理论指导与启发。最后文章对新增长理论进行了评述与展望。