不确定环境下并行研发联盟成员投资策略研究

考虑研发存在不确定性(即研发风险),研究了并行研发联盟中联盟成员在平均分配和按投入比例分配方式下的投资策略,分析了研发风险和利益分配方式对联盟成员投资策略的影响。研究表明,当市场收益较高时,研发风险和市场收益均能提高并行研发联盟成员的期望投入,因此并行合作研发适合于市场收益和研发风险均较大的产品开发;采用按投入比例分配方式比平均分配方式获得的联盟成员期望投入多,所以并行研发联盟应尽可能按投入比例分配收益,以促进合作研发的成功。     

农民工集聚的劳动力池效应研究

经济的空间集聚会产生一个劳动力池效应,发达国家的劳动力池效应主要表现为通过劳动力的供求匹配,提高工人.的工资和企业的收益.发展中国家的劳动力池效应则是通过降低市场的不确定性,提高企业的或然收益,降低工人的就业风险.劳动力池的公共物品性质则要求政府应对其进行管理和维护.     

基于结构方程的供应链协同发展路径分析

附属企业能力水平的提高有助于其努力成本系数和绝对风险规避程度的降低,附属企业努力成本系数的提高会增加其最低收益水平,降低附属企业最低收益水平会减少其产出的方差水平以及协同发展过程的中介效用。因此,主导企业可以采用激励性措施来优化供应链模式,最终实现供应链协同效应。     

发展风险投资需认清七大障碍

一、利益机制障碍当前 ,制约我国风险投资机制的障碍固然是多方面的 ,但主要障碍应该是利益机制问题。企业是技术创新的主体 ,也是最大的收益者。但技术创新不仅给企业带来收益 ,而且为政府和社会也带来收益。把创新行为的主体和风险承担主体区分开来 ,政府和社会主动成为创新风险承担主体的一部分 ,投资者承担部分或绝大部分风险 ,不仅可以合理地分散创新风险 ,减轻企业技术创新的压力 ,而且可为各投资主体带来相应比例的高额回报。当然 ,投入与承担风险是成一定比例的 ,投入多 ,风险就大 ,投入少 ,则风险就小 ,即风险与收益相对称 ,期望收…     

基于技术风险的并行研发联盟成员投资策略研究

本文通过构建并行研发联盟的合作研发博弈模型,分析技术风险和不同利润分配方式对联盟成员投资策略的影响,并研究了如何通过选择合理的利润分配方式来降低联盟成员的道德风险,激励其增大研发投入,从而促进合作研发的成功。研究表明:联盟成员在按投入比例分配方式下的期望投入高于在平均分配方式下的期望投入,并行研发联盟应尽可能按投入比例分配收益;市场收益率较高时,联盟成员的研发投入随着技术风险的增大而增大,因此并行研发联盟结构适合于高风险、高收益行业的新产品研发。     

谈证券投资的风险及证券组合

一、证券投资的风险（一）债券投资的风险。债券投资的风险可以概括为：由于对未来不确定性而产生投入本金和预期收益损失或减少的可能性。主要包括以下几种类型：1．信用风险。指债券发行入到期不能还本付息而使投资者遭受损失的可能性。一般来说信用风险主要来自公司（企业）债券,受债券发行人的经营能力、资本规模、事业的前途和稳定性等因素的影响。政府债券的信用风险最小。2．利率风险、指市场利率变化给债券持有人带来损失的可能性。因为债券的价格一般取决于债券收益和市场利率。在债券收益一定时,债券价格与市场利率成反比关系,…     

商业银行利率风险的衡量和管理

风险（tisk）指遭受各种损失的可能性。经济学界对风险有不同的定义,尽管在表述上各有侧重点,但在实质内涵上有着共同内容,“损失”和“不确定性”是风险的两个最基本要素。利率风险（Interest Rate Risk）是指由于市场利率变动的不确定性导致经济主体遭受损失的可能性。市场利率的变动本质上存在两种可能,变动方向有利于或不利于商业银行的变动。前者会给商业银行带来经营收益,后者会给商业银行带来经济损失。在狭义概念中,仅把后者称为利率风险,巴塞尔委员会的《利率风险管理原则》即是如此。     

地方政府专项债券发行定价的影响因素测度

文章整理了2015—2020年中国地方政府专项债券的发行数据,研究地方财政和资本市场特征对专项债券发行定价的影响并进一步探究了项目收益专项债与普通专项债之间的定价差异。实证研究发现：地方政府专项债券自身特征、地方的财政经济和资本市场特征均体现了对债券发行定价的影响。特别的,市场货币供应增加能降低项目收益债与普通专项债之间的定价差异,而银行间拆借利率则会提高这一差异。分地区结果显示中西部地区政府性基金预算对普通专项债的信用担保能力较强,而对项目收益债的信用担保能力较弱增加了投资者对其预期收益融资自平衡的担忧。文章对专项债发行定价的影响因素进行研究,以期为完善专项债券发行制度、降低地方政府债务风险和融资成本提供借鉴。     

浅析中国电影市场营销问题及解决方案

中国电影自改革开放以来,在发行放映体制方面不断推行改革,随着近几年来"高概念"电影"大营销"模式的出现,中国电影营销确实取得了令人瞩目的成绩,但仍然存在许多亟待解决的问题.本文站在市场营销学的角度,从影片本身、价格、渠道和促销四个方面揭示了中国电影营销中存在的问题,并提出了相应的解决方案.     

中国债券市场新债定价研究

债券向来被认为是一种风险较低、收益稳定的投资对象,但是如果其定价出现偏差,一样会带来较高的风险.目前研究债券定价的文献大多数都集中在二级市场债券流通价格的估计上,而债券在发行时价格的合理与否却鲜有人关注,以至于某些券种在上市后的价格与发行时相比有较大的波动.文章着重研究不同种类的债券在一级市场上发行定价以及在二级市场上市的合理价格等问题,应用现金流贴现的思想,结合不同种类债券的特点,介绍几种定价模型,对不同定价方法在我国债券市场上应用的优缺点进行分析,并结合分析结果提出几点提高定价准确性的建议.     

PRODUCT QUALITY UNDER TWO-PRONGED UNCERTAINTY*

This paper builds on a model by Mikami (1991) to explore the effects of uncertainty on the producer's choice of product quality when (1) quality influences demand price and (2) producers are not risk takers. It is shown that even risk-neutral producers might make different quality choices under uncertainty and that those choices will depend upon the explicit way in which uncertainty influences the demand price.     

Product Liability: Beyond Class Action

Can punitive product liability enhance economic efficiency? A very simple economic theory, assuming that the probability and the degree of product dissatisfaction are functions only of the producer's not of the consumer's effort, is modelled and analysed in this paper. The qualitative conclusion hinges critically upon whether the legal liability is reflected on price determination. If the price of the product is insensitive to product liability legislation, then punitive liability beyond the class action (i.e., compensatory payments more than proportional representation of potentially dissatisfied consumers) can induce socially desirable levels of effort exerted by the producer firm. This affirmative effect disappears if the price fully reflects all the expected legal liabilities, whereby punitive liability tends to reduce economic efficiency by encouraging costly lawsuit.     

The invoicing currency choice model of export enterprises assuming joint utility maximization and analysis of the factors influencing selection

Based on the assumption of joint utility maximization, an exporting currency unit pricing model was established, which consists of the local currency, producer's currency, and vehicle currency. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation and partial least squares (PLS) regression were used to analyze currency weights. Results suggest that when a producer's currency is devalued relative to a local currency, if the demand elasticity of the importer is large, the local currency will primarily be used; if the bargaining power of the importer is strong, the producer's currency will primarily be used. Among these factors, the bargaining power of the exporter has the greatest influence, followed by the demand elasticity of the importer and the exporting country's exchange rate.     

COMPETITIVE LONG RUN INDUSTRY EQUILIBRIUM AND FACTOR-PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

In this paper we have considered competitive long run industry equilibrium with factor-price uncertainty. We discussed the long run equilibrium output of firms with risk neutrality, output price and their responses to changes in uncertainty, factor price and industry demand. In the first part of this paper we have derived a result that, given risk neutrality, the firms operate at proper capacity, i.e. where expected long run marginal cost is equal to expected long run average cost, as shown in the case of output-price uncertainty. This result is, however, different from that obtained from Sheshinski and Dréze (1976). From the comparative static analysis we first discovered that even under risk neutrality factor-price uncertainty affects the long run industry equilibrium: that is, a mean preserving increase in uncertainty leads firm's to enter the industry, because they can decrease expected long run costs as the variability of factor price increases. Consequently, output price goes down. In contrast, firm size is kept invariable in response to its increase as long as the cost function is separable, i.e. the separability of the cost function holds when production functions are the Cobb-Douglas and CES types used commonly in empirical work, although firm size might, generally, be affected by the increase. It is an interesting fact that firm size and industry size will express different responses to a change in risk. The result that the long run industry equilibrium with cost uncertainty is explicitly affected is a sharp contrast to the result under output-price uncertainty and provides a new aspect for understanding about the behaviour of the industry with uncertainty. Secondly, increased factor-price causes the number of firms in the industry to decline and output price to rise. In addition, firm's size will expand with its increase if that factor is inferior, while the effect on firm size is ambiguous if it is normal. The firm's output, i.e. firm size, is, however, kept constant if the cost function is separable. Thirdly, the long run equilibrium output of the firm remains intact but the number of firms increases as industry demand rises. This result holds, regardless of the firm's attitude towards risk. Finally, we find throughout the paper that the functional form of the cost function plays a significant role in determining the behaviour of the industry with factor-price uncertainty.     

ENDOGENOUS CONSUMER PARTICIPATION AND THE RECYCLING PROBLEM*

We endogenise the extent of consumer participation in the recycling process, and analyse its effect on the ‘recycling problem’. When recycling requires consumers to undertake costly sorting activities to separate scrap from household waste, they will participate only if the net reward from sorting is positive. Consumers' sorting cost is subject to a network effect arising due to social norms. With heterogeneous consumers differing in terms of their sorting cost, the entire output of the recyclable product may not be subsequently available as scrap to the recycling firms. This increases the virgin producer's monopoly power, and may also lead to multiple equilibria if the network effect of sorting is sufficiently large. The latter result suggests a role for the government in influencing equilibrium selection to improve social welfare. Depending on the fraction of consumers that participate in recycling, increased societal pressure on consumers to recycle may decrease consumer participation and increase the virgin producer's market power.     

低服务厌恶消费者对电商供应链决策的影响

考虑消费者在网络购物过程中对电商供应链的低劣服务存在的厌恶心理,基于前景理论,构建了消费者效用模型,分析了消费者的低服务厌恶心理对线上零售商和线下配送商的决策、电商供应链的绩效和市场需求的影响。结论如下:在分散决策情形下,消费者低服务厌恶心理的增强可以促进线下配送商提高其服务水平,促使线上零售商提高网售价格,有助于扩大市场需求和提高供应链绩效;在集中决策情形下,消费者低服务厌恶心理的增强不利于企业提高其服务水平,有助于企业降低网售价格,同时导致市场需求萎缩和供应链绩效下滑。     

Liquidity-adjusted conditional capital asset pricing model

This paper derives a liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and a liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM respectively based on theory of stochastic discount factor. The liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return consists of three parts: its conditional expected liquidity cost, the systemic risk premium and the liquidity risk premium. The liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return depends on its conditional expected liquidity cost, the conditional covariance between its return and the market return, the conditional covariance between its liquidity cost and the market liquidity cost, and the conditional coskewness of its return and the market return.     

FUTURE POLICY UNCERTAINTY, EFFORT, AND THE RESPONSIVENESS OF OUTPUT TO MARKET SIGNALS

This paper analyses the consequences of future policy uncertainty on the allocation of effort in an economy undergoing reforms. We demonstrate that uncertainty regarding future tax policies may reduce present effort, and will also reduce the responsiveness of output to productivity shocks and other market signals. The discussion has relevance for cases in which privatization will make present managers of firms the future owners and residual claimants to future output. An expectation that the purchasing price of the firm will have a positive relationship to present output will induce the manager to reduce contemporaneous effort, and uncertainty regarding the relationship will also depress present managerial effort.     

二级供应链中代理人的甄别与激励研究

文章分析了由一个制造商与一个分销商所组成的二级供应链中,既存在契约签订之前的逆向选择问题又存在契约签订之后的道德风险问题这一情况下,制造商对分销商的类型甄别及努力激励的机制设计问题。主要得到以下结论：①制造商可以通过努力收益分享的方式激励销售商投入最优的努力水平,进而规避道德风险行为。②制造商通过设计一组激励相容机制可以达到甄别分销商类型的目的,但必须支付给高销售能力分销商一定的租金。③高销售能力分销商的销量水平不存在扭曲,而低销售能力分销商的销量水平向下扭曲,其原因在于制造商降低给低销售能力分销商规定的销量就能够降低支付给高销售能力分销商的信息租金。文章从供应链中逆向选择与道德风险共存的角度对供应链委托代理关系进行研究,得出结论为供应链中的委托代理双方提供了一定的决策依据。     

THE SUBSTITUTION OF SELF-SERVICE ACTIVITIES FOR MARKETED SERVICES

This paper is divided into two parts. In the first part the consequences of permanent differences in the rates of productivity growth between economic activities are dealt with. Special attention is given to the substitution of self-service activities for marketed services. The former are tentatively defined as activities carried out outside the market having the following principal inputs: consumer's time, industrial products (mainly durables), and energy. The emergence of self-service activities challenges the conventional division of man's time into work for market and leisure, which should be replaced by a more detailed breakdown. Consumers’preference for self-service results mainly from high taxation, high real wages and equality in the distribution of personal income. Because of the growth of self-service activities in industrialized countries a non-negligible part of the population's productive effort will be difficult to record, since it will neither appear on the market nor have market value. The need to record self-service activities would be most strongly felt in statistics on private consumption, but would also have consequences in the measurement of the nation's welfare. One should make a distinction between consumption of marketed services and their self-service substitutes in order to provide information on the complementarity of the energy, time and material inputs into various self-service activities and on the substitutability between them and marketed services. This could perhaps be done with the help of extended commodity-private expenditure matrices. The recording as well as the valuation of non-market working time would probably cause great difficulties. Self-service activities are also becoming sufficiently important to warrant their inclusion in the debate on the measurement of the nation's productive effort and of the nation's welfare. But any recording of self-service activities would be a controversial measure since it would require recourse to imputations on a large scale.