Nondisclosure and adverse disclosure as signals of firm value

We present a model in which some of the firm's information ('news')can be disclosed verifiably and some information ('type') cannot,to show that some firms may voluntarily withhold good news anddisclose bad news. We describe an equilibrium in which high-typefirms withhold good news and disclose bad news, whereas low-typefirms disclose good news and withhold bad news. Under some parametervalues, this equilibrium exists when other more traditionalequilibria are ruled out by standard equilibrium refinements.The model explains some otherwise anomalous empirical evidenceconcerning stock price reactions to disclosure, provides somenew empirical predictions, and suggests that mandatory disclosurerequirements may have the undesirable consequence of makingit more difficult for firms to reveal information that cannotbe disclosed credibly.     

中国上市公司如何选择融资渠道——基于问卷调查的研究

本文以一项关于中国上市公司财务行为的问卷调查和相关公开市场数据为基础,对问卷调查样本公司的融资行为特征进行了研究。在此基础上,我们结合中国资本市场特殊的制度因素,对样本公司融资行为与公司财务理论描述的差异做出了一定的分析与讨论。由于问卷调查能够直接考察公司决策者在实际融资决策时的考虑因素和动机,属于事前直接证据,从而区别于基于公开市场数据的实证研究所提供的事后间接证据,能够从不同角度检验理论的解释能力,具有重要的理论和实践价值。研究结果表明,样本公司的融资行为在一些方面符合现有公司财务理论的描述,但也存在很多不一致之处。本研究的意义在于:第一,以事前直接证据的方式对上市公司融资行为进行的研究,揭示了在中国特殊的制度环境中上市公司融资行为的动机和影响因素,其中一些动机和影响因素存在着不同于成熟市场经济国家上市公司的特殊性;第二,指出了现有主要以美国制度为背景发展起来的公司财务理论对融资行为的一些经典解释,可能不适用于中国上市公司,对中国上市公司融资行为的解释需要考虑中国特殊的制度因素;第三,为公司财务理论的进一步发展和如何改进中国资本市场监管提供了一些有益的经验证据。     

Accounting for the control of doctors: Management information systems in hospitals

The paper describes some current and proposed innovations in the activity accounting and cost accounting systems in two Swedish hospitals. Results are reported of interviews with administrators and senior doctors which reveal their attitudes and intensions with respect to the new control information generated by the accounting innovations. The fundamental differences between the professional ethos of the doctor and the managerial ambitions of the administrator are found to remain robust. Nevertheless there is evidence that the new control information may be the focus of some genuine convergence in the outlook of some administrators and some “doctors managers” with some consequent reduction in goal-uncertainty in the organisation. This paper argues that this calls for some revision of existing accounts of the interaction of doctors and administrators in hospital management.     

GOOGLE'S Duplex: Pretending to be human

Google's Duplex is a computer‐based system with natural language capabilities that provides a human sounding conversation as it performs a set of tasks, such as making restaurant reservations. This paper analyses Google's Duplex and some of the initial reaction to the system and its capabilities. The paper does a text analysis and finds that the system‐generated text creates standardized ratings that suggest the text is analytical, authentic and possesses a generally positive tone. As would be expected for the applications for which it is being used, the text is heavily focused on the present. In addition, this analysis indicates that the text provides evidence of social processes, cognitive processes, tentativeness and affiliation. Further, this paper examines some of the characteristics of speech that Duplex uses to sound human. Those capabilities appear to allow the system pass the Turing test for some well‐structured tasks. However, this paper investigates some of the ethics of pretending to be human and suggests that such impersonation is against evolving computer codes of ethics.     

Rising UI benefits over time

We re-examine a key result in the optimal UI literature that benefits should decline over time. We show that when the population is heterogeneous, Pareto-efficiency may call for multiple payment schedules, some with benefits that fall over time and some with benefits that rise over time.     

Loss Coverage as a Public Policy Objective for Risk Classification Schemes

This article suggests that from a public policy perspective, some degree of adverse selection may be desirable in some insurance markets. The article suggests that a public policymaker should consider the criterion of “loss coverage,” and that in some markets a policymaker may wish to regulate risk classification with a view to increasing loss coverage. Either too much or too little risk classification may reduce loss coverage. The concept is explored by means of examples and formulaic and graphical interpretations. An application to the UK life insurance market is considered.     

Bubbles,Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation

This is a summary and interpretation of some of the literature on stock price volatility that was stimulated by Leroy and Porter 28 and Shiller 40 . It appears that neither small-sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard models for expected returns adequately explain stock price volatility. This suggests a role for some nonstandard models for expected returns. One possibility is a “fads” model in which noise trading by naive investors is important. At present, however, there is little direct evidence that such fads play a significant role in stock price determination.     

The Linkages between Dividends and Earnings

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the linkages between dividends and earnings. Using the Granger test of statistical causality, it is found that some firms use dividends for signaling, some follow a residual policy, and some firms simultaneously signal and follow a residual policy. Segmenting firms according to dividend policy, the results indicate that firms that follow a residual or signaling dividend policy tend to have a higher growth in asset turnover, but a lower growth in revenues. Signaling firms also tend to be smaller, have higher variability in revenues, and use less debt throught time.     

The arms race as a hypergame: A study of routes towards a safer world

There are many possible explanations for the current arms race, some incompatible, some complementary. Here, the hypergame approach is used to present some simple alternative models, reflecting different perceptions that might underlie national behaviour. The possibility that each side in the race is primarily motivated by genuine fear of the other is considered, and then the question of why such a cycle of distrust may be so difficult to break. It is argued that many faulty decisions result not from incompetent analysis, but through inadequate problem definition — ‘asking the wrong question’. Practical consequences of this argument are outlined.     

金融稳定性与公允价值会计准则的优化——基于动态减值准备的思考

次贷危机背景下,对金融机构使用公允价值会计的讨论越来越多。支持者认为市场价格是资产机制的最有效估计;反对者则认为在危机时期,市场价格不是价值的最优体现,反而会导致更为严重的信息误导和顺周期效应。本文从动态减值准备的角度分析了银行等金融机构的公允价值计量优化,认为动态减值准备有助于提升信息透明度和减缓顺周期效应。     

Introduction: Fiscal Aspects of Evolving Federations

There has been a resurgence of interest, in many parts of the world, in problems of multilevel government finance. Recent and ongoing political and economic developments raise questions about the role of the nation, subnational governments, and supranational public authorities in the provision and financing of public-sector programs. This paper presents an overview of these developments that may assist in understanding some of the motivation behind the articles presented in this special issue and in appreciating some of their potential applications. The articles are briefly summarized, and some issues that remain on the agenda for future research are identified.     

Replication and reality: or,the future of sociology

This article has been written to raise some questions about the practice of sociology in the past in order to be clearer about sociological practice in the future. Its object is to encourage some reflection on what sociologists do in order that sociology may have a securer future. More specifically the author is concerned with the theoretical implications of some of the methodological assumptions that sociologists make, and with the need for a better epistemological base for sociology as a predicting science.     

Erklärungsansätze für vertragswidriges Verhalten Versicherungsnehmern aus Sicht der ökonomischen Theorie

The two main purposes of this paper are an introduction to the economic analysis of insurance fraud and furthermore a derivation of factors that determine fraudulent behavior of policyholders on insurance markets. Consequently, we analyze the strategic decision problems of insurance companies and the policyholders and identify some factors that can help to reduce fraudulent behavior. In this context we evaluate two derived starting points for the combat against insurance fraud: fraud detection systems and a consequent charge policy of detected defrauders. We illustrate that both points can help to reduce the cost of fraud. Furthermore, we enhance our earlier analysis with respect to the empirical fact that some individuals care about fairness or — in the insurance fraud context — the legitimacy of their actions. Surprisingly, in some market situations these concerns of some policyholders do not lead to a lower fraud probability. Finally, we discuss how and to what extent insurance companies can influence such ethical concerns of policyholders. On that score, we distinguish insurance specific and insurance unspecific factors and their impact on the consumers attitudes towards insurance fraud.     

The demise of the ARC journal ranking scheme: an ex post analysis of the accounting and finance journals

The recent abolition of the ARC journal ranking scheme is indicative of some problematical features of journal ranking in general and the ARC scheme in particular. An alternative citation‐based ranking scheme is applied to the accounting and finance journals to highlight some loopholes in the abandoned ARC scheme and provide some suggestions for how to proceed with ERA 2012. By re‐ranking journals according to their citation indices, it is demonstrated that the ARC ranking placed a large number of journals where they do not belong. As a result, the ARC scheme induced some adverse behavioural changes with respect to preferred publication outlets.     

Are corporates' target leverage ratios time-dependent?

This paper extends the stationary-leverage-ratio model to incorporate a time-dependent target leverage ratio. The theoretical hypothesis of the existence of a time-dependent target leverage ratio reflects the movement of a firm's initial target ratio toward a long-term target ratio over time. Using some simple scenarios about the time-dependence of the target leverage ratio, the numerical results show that the incorporation of the hypothesis into the stationary-leverage-ratio model is capable of producing term structures of probabilities of default that are consistent with some empirical findings. The results provide some evidences to support the hypothesis.     

Value Relevance of Comprehensive Income for the Canadian Market*

The value relevance of comprehensive income (CI) compared to net income (NI) remains unresolved. We look at this issue in the Canadian market, using association methods to determine the value relevance of reporting CI and other comprehensive income (OCI) components for stock prices and returns. The sample consists of all the firms in the S&P/TSX Composite Index that prepared their financial statements according to Canadian standards or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) over the 2008–2016 period. Although we find no evidence that CI is more value relevant than NI for stock prices and returns, we note that some OCI components are incrementally value relevant beyond NI for both amounts. In addition, financial services firms differ from other companies in terms of the relationships between some of their OCI components and prices or returns, with such firms even driving some relationships. Relationships between OCI components and prices or returns are also affected when data from the financial crisis period are excluded, with some relationships even changing after IFRS adoption. These results inform Canadian standard setters and financial statement users that OCI components are decision useful for the Canadian market.     

Australian Proprietary Companies' Demand for External Auditing

The recently introduced size test for proprieta ry companies could mean that some companies that were exempt would now be required to have annual audits, while some non-exempt companies would no longer be required to have annual audits. This paper considers the reasonableness of the size test and evaluates the proposition that proprietary company audits are not all legislation-driven.     

我国市场化改革与收入分配

在市场化过程中我国出现收入差距不断扩大的趋势,从而出现了一些将其原因归结为市场化改革的错误认识。本文通过对我国改革开放以来收入分配格局变化的主要特点和导致收入差距扩大原因的实证分析,对一些模糊认识进行了澄清。在个人收入差距扩大的诸多因素中,传统计划体制遗留下来的一些制度和政策,在部门利益和地方利益驱使下新形成的有悖于市场体制规则的制度和政策,政府对市场缺失和市场扭曲采取的不作为态度,对资本节制和劳动保护的不足,成为了最为重要的因素。     

对我国房地产税制改革的几点建议

本文认为,房地产税制度的建立和完善程度与经济发达程度有一定关系;一些发达国家和地区在房地产税制度建设、评估机构设置、纳税人提出反对及上诉程序等方面的做法及经验值得我国借鉴;最后本文结合我国国情,对我国房地产税制改革提出了几点建议。     

加强实验教学培养合格人才

本文阐述了在当前形势下实验教学改革的必要性及其在培养人才过程中的作用,提出应在实验教学方式、内容及实验课成绩评定等几方面进行改革,指出实验教学改革需解决的问题,提出了一些关于实验教学改革的初步设想。