FINDING VALUE WHERE NONE EXISTS: PITFALLS IN USING ADJUSTED PRESENT VALUE

There are several conceptually "correct" methods for valuing firms and projects, including the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) approach, the flows to equity (FTE) method, and the adjusted present value (APV) or valuation-by-components method. The author examines the relative advantages of these frameworks and offers guidance as to when they are likely to be most useful. The key message is a caution to would-be users of APV: it is frequently unreliable and should be used only in conjunction with more conventional valuation frameworks. It works best in transactions that involve structured financings, such as leveraged buyouts and project and real estate financings. Even in these cases, however, its usefulness depends on theoretical concepts that in practical applications have a wide margin of error.
In general, WACC is a robust and appropriate valuation framework as long as the firm has a target debt ratio. The FTE method is most relevant for acquisitions and very large projects. The author shows how APV and FTE can be formulated to be consistent with the WACC valuation. The issue, however, is not whether the techniques can be made consistent through relatively complex adjustments by sophisticated users, but rather what happens when they are used in everyday applications by practitioners unfamiliar with the somewhat arcane valuation issues involved.     

Capital Cash Flows,APV and Valuation

This paper examines three different methods of valuing companies and projects: the adjusted present value (APV), capital cash flows (CCF) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) methods. It develops the appropriate WACC and beta leveraging formulae appropriate for each valuation model, so that given a particular valuation model the correct APV and CCF values can be determined from the WACC value and vice versa. Further it goes on to show when the perpetuity formulae give poor estimates of the value of individual cash flows, even though the overall values are correct. The paper cautions that the APV and CCF models require more information than is currently known, such as the value of the corporate use of debt, and consequently can give misleading results, particularly in sensitivity analyses.     

Using APV (adjusted present value): a better tool for valuing operations

Anyone who learned valuation techniques more than a few years ago is probably due for a refresher course. For the past 25 years, managers have been taught that the best practice for valuing assets-that is, an existing business, factory, product line, or market position-is to use a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) methodology. That is still true. But the particular version of DCF that has been accepted as the standard-using the weighted-average cost of capital (WACC)-is now obsolete. Today's better alternative, adjusted present value (APV), is especially versatile and reliable. It will likely replace WACC as the DCF methodology of choice among generalists. Like WACC, APV is used to value operations, or assets-in-place-that is, any existing asset that will generate a stream of future cash flows. Timothy Luehrman explains APV and walks readers through a case example designed to teach them how to use it. He argues that APV always works when WACC does-and sometimes when WACC doesn't, because it requires fewer restrictive assumptions. And APV is less prone to yield serious errors than WACC is. But, most important, general managers will find that APV's power lies in the managerially relevant information it provides. APV can help managers analyze not only how much an asset is worth but also where the value comes from.     

The valuation of projects under the dividend imputation tax system

This paper proves that a modified weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) valuation methodology is a rigorous and practicable method of valuing projects and companies under the Australian dividend imputation tax system. This methodology uses an effective tax rate in calculating both the discount rate and the ungeared after tax cash flow. A cash flow after effective corporate tax is shown to be equivalent to a cash plus value of imputation credit stream. Importantly, this valuation methodology is applicable to returns that are non-uniform and of finite duration. Also examined is the discounting of equity returns at the company's cost of equity capital. A worked example is presented to clarify and quantify the effects discussed.     

Motives for and Effects of Asset Revaluation: An Examination of South Korean Data

Examining a sample of South Korean firms, of which 201 revalued assets and 899 did not during the period 2008–2009, we find that the average debt cost, equity cost, and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) are higher among the firms that revalued. Firms with higher equity costs and leverage are more likely to revalue and the propensity has a negative relationship with profitability, cash flow, and Tobin’s q. Firms that engage in revaluation experience reductions in all capital costs from year ?1 to +1, comparable to those among firms that did not revalue. Our results support both the information hypothesis and the debt-cost hypothesis.     

The Impact of Personal Taxes on the Firm's Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Investment Behaviour: A Simplified Approach Using the Dempsey Discounted Dividends Model

The discounted dividends model advanced by Dempsey (1996) is extended to provide a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assessment of investment opportunities with irregular cash flows. Thereafter, the framework is extended to an assessment of the implications of government tax policy for the firm's investment behaviour. The developed framework is consistent with the empirical evidence of Poterba and Summers (1985) which — over the period of UK tax history 1950–1983 encompassing four major tax on equity reforms — observes how the related dividend and investment politics of UK firms appear to be influenced by the level of dividend taxes.     

The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

This article compares the market value of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) to the discounted value of their corresponding cash flow forecasts. For our sample of 51 HLTs completed between 1983 and 1989, the valuations of discounted cash flow forecasts are within 10 percent, on average, of the market values of the completed transactions. Our valuations perform at least as well as valuation methods using comparable companies and transactions. We also invert our analysis by estimating the risk premia implied by transaction values and forecast cash flows, and relating those risk premia to firm and industry betas, firm size, and firm book-to-market ratios.     

Incorporating Competition into the APV Technique for Valuing Leveraged Transactions

According to a recent survey, the discounted cash flow approach is the valuation technique most widely used by companies evaluating acquisition targets. But because the DCF approach is inappropriate when the capital structure is changing during the forecast period, many analysts turn to the adjusted present value (APV) approach, which can easily accommodate a changing capital structure. Still, the finance literature has not shown how to incorporate assumptions about the effect of competition in the post-forecast period into an APV analysis.
This paper provides two new tools for calculating horizon values with changing leverage and competition. First, it provides a new model, based on more realistic assumptions, for valuing a growing annuity of free cash flows when ROIC is expected to decline due to competition. Second, it provides a model for valuing tax shields that correctly incorporates the impact of competition in the post-forecast period. When used together with the APV approach, these two new tools allow an analyst to estimate the value of a company with a changing capital structure that faces competition in the post-forecast period.     

Two Different Ways of Treating Corporate Cash in FCF Valuations—and the Importance of Getting the Cost of Capital Right

The methods for calculating free cash flow presented in texts on financial statement analysis and valuation appear to be very different from those in corporate finance texts, causing some confusion among academics as well as practitioners. Financial statement analysis and valuation texts generally begin by valuing just the enterprise operations—that is, the entity that engages in the firm's primary revenue‐generating activities—and then adding back the value of its cash holdings and other financial assets. The corporate finance approach is typically to value all the assets together, including financial assets that are not used in the production of the goods and services provided by the firm. Using a simple example, the authors show that the valuation of the equity ownership of the firm should be the same for both methods of calculating free cash flow, provided the analyst makes the appropriate adjustments to the method for calculating the cost of capital (WACC) used to discount forecasted free cash flows to a present value.     

A Reconsideration of Tax Shield Valuation

A quarter‐century ago, Miles and Ezzell (1980) solved the valuation problem of a firm that follows a constant leverage ratio L = D/S. However, to this day, the proper discounting of free cash flows and the computation of WACC are often misunderstood by scholars and practitioners alike. For example, it is common for textbooks and fairness opinions to discount free cash flows at WACC with beta input β _S = [1 + (1 ? τ)L]β_u, although the latter is not consistent with the assumption of constant leverage. This confusion extends to the valuation of tax shields and the proper implementation of adjusted present value procedures. In this paper, we derive a general result on the value of tax shields, obtain the correct value of tax shields for perpetuities, and state the correct valuation formulas for arbitrary cash flows under a constant leverage financial policy.     

A Review of Acquisition Valuation Models

The article critically examines two methods of acquisition valuation. The first concentrates on a comparison of the earnings per share of the combined companies with that of the acquiror alone on a present value basis. The second method is discounted cash flow model which is based on several established normative models of share price valuation. The article concludes that because of the difficulties in computing an accurate weighted average cost of capital for the combined group and the differences in cash flow and reported earnings, the earnings per share approach is not valid, and therefore the cash flow approach is to be preferred and adopted.     

On the relation between expected returns and implied cost of capital

We examine the relation between implied cost of capital and expected returns under an assumption that expected returns are stochastic, a property supported by theory and empirical evidence. We demonstrate that implied cost of capital differs from expected return, on average, by a function encompassing volatilities of, as well as correlation between, expected returns and cash flows, growth in cash flows, and leverage. These results provide alternative explanations for findings from empirical studies employing implied cost of capital on the magnitude of the market risk premium; predictability of future returns; and the relations between cost of capital and a host of firm characteristics, such as growth, leverage, idiosyncratic risk and the firm’s information environment.     

Risk Management and the Cost of Capital for Operating Assets

This article attempts to clarify the effect of risk management on a company's cost of capital in the spirit of the traditional M&M/CAPM model. The traditional cost of capital model can and should be used to find the hurdle rate for a company's operating assets, since it can be applied regardless of the composition of the firm's non‐operating assets or its risk management policy. The author's main message is that if a firm manages idiosyncratic risk, the correct cost of capital for the operating investment is not the firm's enterprise WACC, but rather the required return on the assets being funded. Using the case of a company with a single line of business that is evaluating an investment opportunity, the author demonstrates how to adjust the firm's overall WACC to find the cost of capital for the operating assets to be acquired.     

Employee stock ownership and the cost of capital

This paper investigates the relationship between employee stock ownership and the cost of capital, the main determinant of shareholder value creation computed through economic value added (EVA). By reducing agency conflicts within the firm, we hypothesize that employee share ownership reduces the firm’s cost of capital by affecting its two components, i.e. the cost of equity and the cost of debt. We test this hypothesis in France, a leading country in terms of employee ownership, based on a panel of the 120 largest listed companies for the 2000–2011 period. We find: (i) no significant relationship between employee stock ownership and the cost of equity; (ii) a negative curvilinear relationship between employee stock ownership and the cost of debt; (ii) a negative curvilinear relationship between employee stock ownership and the weighted average cost of capital. These results suggest debtholders regard ESO as positive as long it is moderate because it shifts risk from them to employees and that this effect is still perceptible in the weighted average cost of capital.     

Does hedge disclosure influence cost of capital for European banks?

Upon extracting and quantifying relevant hedge information from the narrative section of European banks annual reports, this paper examines the impact of such information on cost of capital [as measured by weighted average cost of capital (WACC), cost of equity (COE) and cost of debt (COD)]. Using a sample of 1885 bank-year observations from 19 countries, we find that textual hedge disclosure leads to a significant reduction in WACC, COE, and COD; thus explains a substantial portion of variation in cost of capital. Further, we find that these results are stronger in countries with high corruption and financial openness. Our results are robust to several controls and model specification. Collectively, our findings enrich prior evidence which examines the economic consequences of hedge disclosure.     

On the determinants of SME capital structure in Central and Eastern Europe: A dynamic panel analysis

The purpose of this paper is to test how firm characteristics affect SMEs’ capital structure using a unique dataset of micro, small, and medium-sized firms (SMEs) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We carry out a panel data analysis of 3175 SMEs from seven CEE countries during the period 2001–2005, modeling the leverage ratio as a function of firm specific characteristics hypothesized by capital structure theory. By using the cash flow as an explanatory variable, we test some of the predictions of the pecking order theory. According to this theory, firms with more available internal funds should use less external funding. We do find strong evidence in favor of the pecking order theory, given that there is a negative and significant correlation between profitability and leverage. When we control for other firm specific characteristics such as future growth opportunities, liquidity, sales growth, size and assets structure, the cash flow is found to be a strong determinant of firm leverage. We also argue that the determinants of firm leverage may be considerably different depending on firms’ size and age. The empirical results show that cash flow coefficient remains negative and statistically significant only for medium-sized firms, thus suggesting that larger firms with sufficient internal funds use less external funding than comparable smaller firms. We obtain similar results when we estimate the model by firm age; older firms demonstrate similar behavior as larger firms.     

多元化与资本成本的关系——来自中国股票市场的证据

根据期权定价模型,多元化降低了公司风险,但其受益者是债权人,而不是股东,这使得公司部分财富从股东手中转移到债权人手中,由此降低了股东财富,因此,多元化可能并不为股东所欢迎,从而多元化公司的权益资本成本可能高于专业化公司。同时,由于内部资本市场在公司内部的资源再配置作用,使得公司降低了对融资成本较高的外部资本市场的依赖,因此,多元化经营公司的总资本成本可能低于专业化经营公司。本文以2001—2004年我国上市公司为例,对多元化与公司权益资本成本和总资本成本之间的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,多元化与权益资本成本正相关,而与总资本成本负相关。     

The Determinants of Stock Price Exposure: Financial Engineering and the Gold Mining Industry

This paper studies the exposure of North American gold mining firms to changes in the price of gold. The average mining stock moves 2 percent for each 1 percent change in gold prices, but exposures vary considerably over time and across firms. As predicted by valuation models, gold firm exposures are significantly negatively related to the firm's hedging and diversification activities and to gold prices and gold return volatility, and are positively related to firm leverage. Simple discounted cash flow models produce useful exposure predictions but they systematically overestimate exposures, possibly due to their failure to reflect managerial flexibility.     

杠杆率变动、固定资产投资与研发活动——兼论金融赋能高质量发展

本文通过构建一个包含企业固定资产投资与研发投资的理论模型,分析得出企业杠杆率变动与投资行为的非线性关系。实证结果表明,低杠杆下,杠杆率的增大会使企业增加固定资产和研发投资的规模。对于财务柔性更强、发展前景更好的企业,杠杆率的提升能够增大此类企业的研发投入占比,即企业开展更多能够提升技术水平的研发活动。进一步研究发现,短期杠杆与商业信用杠杆的提升有助于财务柔性较好的企业提高研发投资占比,而对于发展前景不佳的僵尸企业,长期杠杆和银行杠杆的提升反而会使其扩大固定资产投资,加剧产能过剩问题。本文的政策含义在于,要在保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定的前提下,引导金融资源更多投入到创新型经济上,给予优质及前景较好的企业一定杠杆率调整空间和自由度,使其能够更好地利用社会资金,激励其开展研发活动,促进金融更好地服务实体经济,赋能高质量发展。     

Entrepreneurial finance: Banks versus venture capital

We analyze how entrepreneurial firms choose between two funding institution: banks, which monitor less intensively and face liquidity demands from their own investors, and venture capitalists, who can monitor more intensively but face a higher cost of capital because of the liquidity constraints that they impose on their own investors. Because the firm's manager prefers continuing the firm over liquidating it and aggressive (risky) continuation strategies over conservative (safe) continuation strategies, the institution must monitor the firm and exercise some control over its decisions. Bank finance takes the form of debt, whereas venture capital finance often resembles convertible debt. Venture capital finance is optimal only when the aggressive continuation strategy is not too profitable, ex ante; the uncertainty associated with the risky continuation strategy (strategic uncertainty) is high; and the firm's cash flow distribution is highly risky and positively skewed, with low probability of success, low liquidation value, and high returns if successful. A decrease in venture capitalists’ cost of capital encourages firms to switch from safe strategies and bank finance to riskier strategies and venture capital finance, increasing the average risk of firms in the economy.