中国与“丝绸之路经济带”主要国家经贸关系研究

探寻“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家与中国的双边贸易对其本国经济增长产生的影响,测度其与中国的贸易密集度、HM指数和贸易互补性,分析中国与沿线主要国家经贸发展的现状与潜力。研究发现：在沿线国家与中国的双边贸易中,其进口贸易、出口贸易、总贸易均可诱发该国经济增长,相比而言,对中国出口的诱发效应大于从中国进口的诱发效应;中国与沿线国的人均GDP差距、人口规模、WTO组织变量及经济自由度与沿线国家经济发展正相关,经贸成本与沿线国经济增长负相关;中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家的贸易具有较高依赖度和互补性,沿线主要国家对中国出口产品的依赖程度远远高于中国市场对沿线主要国家出口产品的依赖程度。     

多维进口与中国地区经济增长

本文利用CEPII BACI世界贸易数据库和中国海关贸易数据库等多个数据库的匹配数据,基于省级面板数据,从进口规模、进口技术含量、进口结构等多维进口视角,综合考察2000—2015年进口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：（1）进口规模增加、技术类商品整体进口技术含量的增加、进口商品种类的增加都显著促进了经济增长,但是进口市场集中度的提高显著抑制了经济增长。经过内生性处理和稳健性检验,这些结论都是稳健的。（2）进一步研究发现,中高技术与高技术类型商品进口技术含量的增加显著促进了经济增长,一般贸易进口增加对经济增长的促进作用大于加工贸易,中间品进口的增加会显著促进经济增长,消费品与资本品进口的增加对经济增长没有显著影响,来自高收入水平国家进口规模的增加会显著促进经济增长。因此,在积极主动扩大进口的背景下,政府要注重扩大中高技术与高技术类型商品的进口,增加高质量中间品新品种的进口,实施进口市场多元化战略,从而让进口更好地服务于国内实体经济的发展和国家重大战略。     

中国与中东欧国家农产品贸易的研究现状及进展

"一带一路"战略提出以来,中国与中东欧国家的农产品贸易增长迅速,很多国内外学者对此进行了研究。本文主要从中国与中东欧国家以及与其他国家和地区的农产品贸易发展现状、贸易结构、贸易潜力以及促进农产品贸易发展的政策建议等方面进行综述,为研究中国与中东欧国家农产品贸易提供借鉴意义。     

“一带一路”中东欧沿线国家电力投资环境研究

"一带一路"倡议和"16+1合作"为投资中东欧沿线国家电力市场提供了良好契机,中东欧国家存在较大的投资潜力。为了量化企业在中东欧国家进行电力投资的可行性,本文通过将层次分析法与熵值法相结合,构建电力投资环境的综合评价指标体系,对"16+1合作"机制下的中东欧国家的电力投资环境进行比较和评价。基于模型的评价结果,本文将中东欧国家的电力投资环境分为良好型、潜力型、成长型和薄弱型四个类型。结合模型结果,本文提出中国电力企业应针对各个国家的不同投资环境因地制宜制定投资策略,遵守市场化原则、注重风险防控,并坚持互利共赢原则,为"一带一路"倡议和"16+1合作"助力。     

中国进口贸易利益规模及其分解 ——基于产品多样性视角的研究

本文从产品多样性视角考察中国进口贸易利益规模。基于现有文献的研究模型和中国海关2002年至2012年进口数据,本文发现在一系列对称性假设下中国进口贸易带来产品多样性增加的贸易利益总体规模较小。分产品类别看,中间产品、工业品及初级产品贡献了绝大部分贸易利益。分产业类别看,金属矿的开采、化学品及化学制品的制造及与资源、初级产品相关的行业贡献较大。     

中国进口贸易的影响因素研究——来自省际面板数据的实证分析

在全球经济一体化的背景下,实现国内外均衡发展是经济健康运行的重要目标,扩大进口是目前中国改变进出口失衡、促进经济增长的一个关键。因此,从影响进口需求的因素出发,建立动态面板回归模型,应用中国省域1987—2009年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果发现：进口贸易具有内生性,不同省域、不同时期经济变量对进口的影响存在差异,FDI、储蓄、固定资产投资、出口等因素对进口具有正向影响,GDP与进口贸易呈负相关关系。     

中国进口贸易的影响因素研究——来自省际面板数据的实证分析

在全球经济一体化的背景下,实现国内外均衡发展是经济健康运行的重要目标,扩大进口是目前中国改变进出口失衡、促进经济增长的一个关键。因此,从影响进口需求的因素出发,建立动态面板回归模型,应用中国省域1987—2009年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果发现:进口贸易具有内生性,不同省域、不同时期经济变量对进口的影响存在差异,FDI、储蓄、固定资产投资、出口等因素对进口具有正向影响,GDP与进口贸易呈负相关关系。     

“一带一路”背景下的中东欧高铁建设研究

本文回顾中东欧国家高铁的发展历程,并对该区域高速铁路现状进行调研,结合人口、经济规模数据、城市群理论对区域高速铁路的潜在需求进行分析,研究表明:中东欧国家政治环境相对稳定,长期将铁路建设作为交通基础设施的优先发展方向,区域国家对于高速铁路需求强烈。同时,也受到建设资金缺乏、技术储备不足、高铁运营经验较少等因素的制约。研究还显示,中东欧国家主要城市基础良好,但彼此互联互通并不密切。中国高铁与中东欧国家铁路匹配程度好,性价比高。当前需要加强中国与中东欧国家在铁路建设领域的合作,在促进当地经济发展和区域一体化的同时也使得"一带一路"战略惠及更广泛区域。中国也需积极主动融入中东欧高铁建设和规划中,实现自身最大利益。     

推动宁波口岸进口增长对策研究

本文从分析宁渡口岸进口贸易增长的现实和理论意义入手,结合宁波口岸进口贸易现状,运用因子分析法着重剖析了影响宁波口岸进口的主要因素,在确定因子的基础上运用主成分回归法建立了宁波口岸进口模型.针对口岸进口增长的主要因素进一步分析了促进宁波口岸进口增长的优势和劣势.最后从建立更加稳定的扩大口岸进口贸易规模的动力机制、促进体系和保障机制提出推进宁波口岸进口增长的相应对策.     

中国与金砖国家间农产品贸易成本弹性测度与分析

本文在Novy(2013)超越对数引力模型基础上把国内民主化程度作为政治因素从出口国和进口国两条路径引入该模型对其进行改进,并利用改进后的模型对中国与金砖国家部分农产品贸易成本弹性分别进行测度。结果显示中国与金砖国家农产品贸易成本弹性均为正,中国与金砖国家通过降低贸易成本均可提高贸易量。然而中国出口与进口贸易成本弹性差值均为负,中国总体不具有相对优势。从细分产品结构来看,中国可以优先考虑本国优势产品,重点在优势产品领域积极推进贸易自由化和便利化。中国与金砖国家存在产业内贸易潜力较大产品,中国可以与金砖国家在不同层次加深农业分工与合作,分散中国农产品贸易风险,实现对外贸易多元化和可持续发展。     

贸易自由化与中国企业进口中间品质量升级

进口高质量中间品是发展中国家实现技术追赶的重要途径;贸易自由化会降低进口高质量中间产品的贸易成本和相对价格,促进企业进口中间品质量升级。基于此,本文利用细分关税数据、海关数据和工业企业数据,将加工贸易作为控制组、一般贸易作为处理组,采用倍差法经验分析贸易自由化对中国企业进口中间品质量的影响。结论发现：伴随关税下降,中国企业进口中间品质量整体增长,且一般贸易组增长速度远快于加工贸易组。同加工贸易相比,关税下降1%一般贸易进口中间品质量增长高出0.06%~3.74%。这一作用在持续进口企业中,在基础设施完善、市场化水平高、经济集聚程度高的地区更明显。上述结论通过了同趋势假设、内生性等一系列稳健性检验。     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

Convergence of interest rate pass-through in a wider euro zone?

This study investigates interest rate pass-through convergence for the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union. Based on a unifying empirical pass-through model that allows for thresholds, asymmetric adjustment, and structural changes, we find that the pass-through in many CEECs has become faster over time and is generally more complete than in the euro zone. We find evidence for convergence across CEECs with market concentration, bank health, foreign bank participation and monetary policy regime as conditioning factors. No convergence of the CEEC pass-through is found vis-à-vis the heterogeneous euro zone.     

中国劳务输出对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用修正的贸易引力模型,应用中国与175个国家(地区)1995~2004年的面板数据,就中国劳务输出对进出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。对样本总体的回归结果表明,我国对外劳务输出与出口之间存在互补关系,劳务输出能够带动出口增加;而劳务输出对进口没有明显影响,二者之间呈现不显著的替代关系。对样本国家(地区)按区域和收入分组的回归结果与对样本总体的回归结果基本一致:我国对大多数国家(地区)的劳务输出与出口之间存在正相关关系,特别是外派劳务最为集中的东亚和南亚,劳务输出对出口有着明显的拉动作用;在进口方面,除拉美和加勒比海国家外,对其余各组国家(地区)的劳务输出与进口之间均为负相关关系,而这种关系通常不显著。     

The effect of World Bank trade adjustment assistance on trade and growth, 1987–2004: Is the glass half full or half empty?

This paper studies the association between trade reform, growth, and trade adjustment assistance in a sample of developing countries that underwent trade reforms during 1987–2004. Our analysis explicitly differentiates between a group of countries that received trade adjustment loans from the World Bank and a non-recipient group. The results suggest that trade adjustment assistance is positively associated with economic growth after trade reform in the medium to long run. In comparison to a pre-reform period and to the non-recipient group, the recipient countries registered 0.2 percent higher growth of real GDP per capita, 5.0 percent higher import growth, and 2.5 percent higher export growth over a period of three to five years after trade reform.     

我国外贸企业国际结算的风险及防范

目前,我国外贸企业在进出口业务中主要使用三种国际结算方式:汇付、托收、信用证。随着出口竞争的日趋激烈化,灵活多变的支付方式已成为外贸企业增加市场份额的重要手段,由此也带来了进出口收付汇风险的增加。本文在分析各种结算方式特点和风险的基础上,探讨了国际结算风险的防范措施。     

TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

The Qualitative and Quantitative Significance of Non-Tariff Barriers: An ERP study of Norway

Along with a de-escalation of tariffsin most industrialized countries, a wide range of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) has been developed. NTBs are more challenging to study than tariffsbecause they are more difficult to detect and measure, and because the qualitative functioning of NTBs varies according to their design. In particular, equivalent tariff rate estimates on import quantity restrictions will endogenously react to domestic market shifts, for instance as a result of shifts in other commercial policy measures. Besides emphasizing the quantitative dominance of NTBs to tariffs in the Norwegian trade policy system, this study of Effective Rates of Protection clearly illustrates that it may be critical for trade policy studies to model qualitatively the interdependency between different policy measures.     

A SURVEY OF THE ECONOMICS OF FAIR TRADE

Fair Trade has spread in developing countries as an initiative aimed at lifting poor smallholder farmers out of poverty by providing them with premium prices, availability of credit, and improved community development and social goods. Fair Trade is also viewed as a niche market for high value products in a context of globalization and trade liberalization policies that affect smallholder farmers in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the potential effects of Fair Trade, both theoretical and empirical, on small‐scale producers in developing countries. Our review discusses the empirical evidence on prices and income, as well as the importance of limited market access and productivity. We discuss evidence on labor markets and human capital investments as well.