Causes of labour supply and demand mismatches in the Dutch building trades

Summary In this paper the significance of some hypotheses on possible causes of labour supply and demand mismatches is tested on data of the Dutch building trades by means of a UV analysis. In contrast with most other UV research this study does not refer to a search-theoretical framework, but focuses on skill differences between labour supply and demand. Three significant causes of labour market frictions appear to be: the development of the skill composition of labour demand, the apprenticeship possibilities and the relatively high wages of older workers. Some other hypotheses show weakly significant results: bumping-down processes, reschooling of unemployed older workers and the development of secondary labour market segments.At the moment of writing this paper the author was working at the Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.The author would like to thank Professor J.A.M. Heijke, dr. N. van Hulst, Professor J.G. Knot, Professor J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor A.J. Vermaat for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper and G.A. van Pruissen for his assistance in computer work.     

Germany’s Stalling Economic Engine – How to Get it Running Again

Summary The German economy, once the powerhouse in Europe, is stalling. Unemployment has ratcheted upward since 1970, the social security systems can no longer be financed (even if the population were not ageing) and with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.2 per cent since 1995, the economy almost stagnates. This paper analyses and suggests solutions to Germany’s three main challenges. To undo the adverse incentives with respect to unemployment, the institutional design for wage formation should be decentralized, the reservation wage adjusted and the tax on labour reduced. To make the social security systems sustainable, the level of social absorption has to be lowered. And, finally, to achieve a more dynamic economy, new stimuli for growth have to be unleashed, including human capital formation and innovation, which are vital for the knowledge society. The role of government has to be rethought and the German social market economy redefined. Jelle Zijlstra Professorial Fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study during September 2004–January 2005, Agip Professor in International Economics at Johns Hopkins in Bologna and President-Emeritus, Kiel Institute of World Economics. The paper is a revised version of the Jelle Zijlstra Lecture, held on January 13, 2005 at the Free University of Amsterdam.     

Hysteresis in unemployment in the Netherlands

Summary The Dutch labour market situation in the eighties can be characterized by the hysteresis phenomenon, i. e. a rising natural rate of unemployment as a result of the rise of actual unemployment in the past. It appears that the hysteresis phenomenon is more important in The Netherlands than in France and the United States and as relevant as in Germany and the United Kingdom. Because of the steep rise of unemployment in The Netherlands the natural rate of unemployment may have risen more than in Other European countries. As a consequence, the wage depressing effect of the current high unemployment rate has diminished rapidly.I thank J.C. Siebrand, D.P. Broer and C.B. Mulder for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

European Labour Mobility: Challenges and Potentials

European Union economies are pressed by (i) a demographic change that induces population ageing and a decline of the workforce, and (ii) a split labour market that is characterized by high levels of unemployment for low-skilled people and a simultaneous shortage of skilled workers. This lack of flexible high-skilled workers and the aging process has created the image of an immobile labour force and the eurosklerosis phenomenon. In such a situation, an economically motivated immigration policy at the European level can generate welfare improvements. A selective policy that discourages unskilled migrants and attracts skilled foreign workers will vitalize the labour market, foster growth and increase demand for unskilled native workers. The paper summarizes the available economic insights, and suggests (i) the need to harmonize the single-country migration policies across Europe and (ii) that the European Union needs to become an active player on the international labour markets by providing competitive institutional settings for European companies. The author is President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Director of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, Professor of Economics at the University of Bonn, and Honorary Professor at the Free University of Berlin. Revised version of a paper presented at the high-level expert conference ‘Jobs for Europe’ on the Social Policy Agenda for the European Union on October 25–26, 2004 in Amsterdam. The author thanks Aart Jan Bette, Henk Don, Renske Gerstel, Klara Scheepers, Jan van der Velden and other members of the editorial committee of this conference as well as conference participants, two anonymous referees of this journal, and Amelie Constant, Don DeVoretz, Holger Hinte and Stephanie Wei Wang for many useful comments on earlier drafts.     

Equity and efficiency in unemployment insurance

Summary This paper is concerned with equity and efficiency in unemployment insurance. It examines the rationales for unemployment insurance, or more generally, social security. It stresses that social security is a second-best solution, since, in practice, taxes that do not distort economic decisions and benefits without moral hazard are impossible. The paper determines a relation between the feasible levels of equity and efficiency,i.e., the output possibilities curve. Three typical views on equity are confronted with this output possibilities curve: the extreme liberal view, the moderate liberal view and the egalitarian view. We construct two output possibilities curves for unemployment insurance in The Netherlands: one curve, assuming that the Dutch labour market is characterized by excess supply and another curve, assuming that the Dutch labour market is instantaneously cleared by flexible wages. The equilibrium model yields substantially higher efficiency costs of Dutch unemployment insurance than the disequilibrium model. Finally, we calculate the output gains of a mini-system of unemployment insurance. Again, the results indicate that much depends on what is in the eye of the beholder.At the time of writing research fellow at the Applied Labour Economics Research Team (ALERT) of the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. The author thanks an anonymous referee ofDe Economist, Frank den Butter, Bernard Compaijen, Edmond Malinvaud, Christopher Pissarides, Niels Westergaard-Nielsen, Rob van de Wijngaert, Gerrit Zalm and the participants of the ALERT/Tinbergen Institute workshops Modelling the Labour Market (6–8 January 1992 at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam) and Dutch Thoughts on Unemployment (18 March 1992 at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam) for their useful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Labour hoarding in a disequilibrium model of the Dutch labour market

Summary This paper presents a method to integrate labour hoarding into a disequilibrium model of the labour market. Disequilibrium indicators for the labour market that include labour hoarding are constructed. These indicators, being important determinants of policy multipliers with respect to employment, are found to be less volatile than the corresponding disequilibrium indicators for the goods market which are available from business surveys. The lower volatility reflects the role of labour hoarding as a buffer between actual and efficient employment levels. Our results indicate that labour hoarding in Dutch enterprises ranges from a minimum of 0.5 per cent of employment in early 1985 to a maximum of 7.0 per cent in 1975. Furthermore, the paper pays special attention to the modelling of mismatch unemployment and to the simulation results of an empirical disequilibrium macromodel of the Dutch economy.The authors thank M.M.G. Fase and two anonymous referees for their useful comments.     

Globalisation and the European disease

Summary This paper analyses the impact of globalisation of economic relationships on the European labour market. The main finding is that Europe's unemployment problem is rooted in rigidities in the labour market itself, while the increasing importance of international trade should provide an opportunity to reduce long-term labour market slack. To reap the potential benefits in this respect, European governments would need to re-orient structural policies towards a better functioning of labour and product markets.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Economics Department, Paris. The author is indebted to several of his colleagues in the Economics Department — in particular Bob Ford, Katie Gordon, Wim Suyker, Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, and Nick Vanston — and two anonymous referees for their useful comments on an earlier draft. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Organisation or the governments of its member countries.     

Labour market performance in developing countries: A survey

Malfunctioning of labour markets is often given as a principal explanation of the widespread poverty in developing countries. Open urban unemployment and disguised unemployment in agriculture are generally considered symptoms of the poor performance of the decentralized system of allocation of labour time and skills in these countries.This survey leads us to a much less pessimistic view of labour market performance per se, though obviously imperfections do exist. On the one hand, the shifts of the labour force in response to shifts in demand have been noteworthy and suggest, at an aggregate level, rather impressive performance. On the other, a closer look at open unemployment, disguised unemployment, and other possible types of labour market malfunctions suggests that they may be less serious misallocations than they appear, and that only in part can such misallocations be attributed to poor labour market functioning.Though the labour market is the immediate locus of the problem of low and stagnant incomes of workers at the bottom of the distribution, the evidence suggests no causality in this association. There is no reason to presume that poverty is a manifestation of labour market failure.     

Adjustment dynamics and the natural rate: an account of UK unemployment

This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK employment,namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empiricalnatural rate of unemployment (NRU). Our analysis suggests thatthe UK NRU has remained reasonably stable through time and thatthe medium-run swings in unemployment are due, instead, to veryprolonged after-effects of persistent (transitory but long-lasting)shocks. We argue that (i) past UK labour market shocks haveprolonged after-effects on unemployment due to interactionsamong different lagged adjustment processes in the labour market;(ii) many of the important shocks that have hit the UK labourmarket over the past 25 years have been persistent; and (iii)the persistence of the shocks is complementary to the persistenceof the lagged adjustment processes in generating movements ofUK employment.     

A labour-supply function for females in the Netherlands

Summary For the Netherlands there is a great deal of leeway to make up in empirically estimating laboursupply functions. In this article a macro supply function for females is estimated where, for the first time in the Netherlands, income data are used. A positive relation between labour force participation and income is found. As for the role of unemployment a significant discouraged worker effect is discovered. Testing timingversus persistence in labour force participation results in empirical evidence for the theory stressing persistence. The authors would like to thank Joop Hartog, Arie Kapteyn, Jacques Siegers and Peter Kooreman for their comments on an earlier version of this article.     

The labour market over the business cycle: can theory fit the facts?

We examine the ability of six labour market models to accountfor the business cycle behaviour of UK labour markets when embeddedin a stochastic growth model. We assess the models in termsof : (i) their ability to mimic general business cycle correlationsand volatility (ii) their success at explaining the persistenceof labour market fluctuations and (iii) whether they can explainwhy the growth and speed of adjustment of labour market variableschanges between periods of expansions and contractions. Themain success of the models is their ability broadly to accountfor business cycle correlations and comovements and the variationsin employment/unemployment growth rates between expansions andcontractions. However, there are three main failures: (i) themodels tend to produce insufficiently volatile employment andunemployment fluctuations (ii) they tend to produce too stronga correlation between wages and employment and (iii) most ofthem generate only brief temporary deviations in unemploymentin response to shocks rather than the protracted dynamics ofthe data.     

Phillips ‘loops’ in South Africa∗

Professor Phillips published his famous Phillips curve article in 1958. In his research, however, he observed that wages were rising more rapidly during the upswing of the business cycle, when unemployment was falling, than during the downturn, when unemployment was rising. When data on the respective variables was plotted, a distinct ‘loop’ was found. In the analysis of South African labour statistics, it was found that such a ‘loop’ existed in the White labour market. However, in the case of the Black labour market, only a weak image of a ‘loop’ was found. The real economic forces producing such a ‘loop’ were almost completely absent. This has implications not only for labour management and economic policy in general, but also for development strategies, because it implies that if Black labour had been left to market forces only, they would have been worse off than they are now.     

The recent failure of U.S. monetary policy

Summary The very slow growth of the broad money supply has been a primary source of U.S. economic weakness in 1990 through 1992. The velocity link between M2 and the subsequent level of nominal GDP has not declined. But changes in bank reserves brought about by open market operations have had much less effect onM2 than the Fed anticipated for two reasons: (1) reserve requirements now apply to only a small fraction of totalM2; and (2) the new bank capital requirements limit some banks ability to lend. The Federal Reserve failed to appreciate the importance of these conditions and misjudged the strength of the monetary policy stimulus that it was providing.Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research.Sixth Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 2, 1992, in The Hague for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis

The development of the unemployment rate differs substantially between OECD countries. In this paper we investigate to what extent these differences are related to labor market institutions. In our analysis we use data of eighteen OECD countries over the period 1960–1994 and show that the way in which institutions interact is important. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 403–418. Department of Economics, CentER, Tilburg University and Institute for Labour Studies (OSA), The Netherlands. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J68.     

Labour Market Flexibility,Wages and Incomes in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of how African labour markets have performed in the 1990s. It is argued that the failure of African labour markets to create good paying jobs has resulted in excess labour supply in the form of either open unemployment or a growing self‐employment sector. One explanation for this outcome is a lack of labour market ‘flexibility’ keeping formal sector wages above their equilibrium level and restricting job creation. We identify three attributes of labour market flexibility. First, whether real wages decline over time; secondly, the tendency for wages to adjust in the face of unemployment; and thirdly, the extent of wage differentials between sectors and/or firms of various size. Recent research shows that real wages in Africa during the 1990s may have been more downwardly flexible than previously thought and have been surprisingly responsive to unemployment rates, yet large wage differentials between formal and informal sector firms remain. This third sense of the term ‘inflexibility’ can explain a common factor across diverse African economies — the high income divide between those working in large firms and those not. Those working in the thriving self‐employment sector in Ghana have something in common with the unemployed in South Africa — both have very low income opportunities relative to those in large firms.     

What Happened to European Unemployment?

Summary  Many academic papers were still being written on mass unemployment in Europe. While, unemployment in the EU15 was falling dramatically. Not only academics, but also European workers at large did not seem to appreciate these labour market developments. I offer two explanations for this puzzling deterioration of workers perceptions of the labour market in spite of disappearing unemployment: (i) labour market risk increased, and (ii) employment growth occurred at the cost of stagnating labour productivity. This means that the new labour market offers a worse risk-return combination. Strategies to address these issues are discussed in the final section of the paper. This paper provides an extended version of the first Willem F. Duisenberg Lecture, held at the University of Amsterdam on February 28, 2008. I am particularly grateful to NIAS for this opportunity and to Petry Kievit for having greatly improved my English.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

Jan Tinbergen's Income distribution: Analysis and policies

Summary This paper is a detailed review and critique of Jan Tinbergen'sIncome Distribution: Analysis and Policies. In Part I, the books primary findings and their bases are recounted. This presentation serves as the basis for a number of questions regarding the merits of the overall approach — in particular, the empirical methodology — and the reliability of the findings. These questions are posed in Part II. In Part III, an overall appraisal of the work is offered.North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1975.Professor of Economics and Fellow of the Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison. This article was prepared while the author was a Fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study. The work was supported in part by the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study and by funds granted to the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison by the U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare pursuant to the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964. Helpful comments on an earlier draft by Hans Daudt, Arthur Goldberger, Victor Halberstadt, Arnold Heertje, and Jan Pen are acknowledged. A discussion with Jan Tinbergen on issues raised in his volume was especially valuable, This review article appeared in a slightly different form in the Winter, 1975 issue of theJournal of Human Resources.     

Recollections of My Career

Mohammad Sadli, Professor Emeritus in the University of Indonesia's Faculty of Economics and Chairman of the Institute for Research and Development (LP3E) of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), is one of the group of economists who fashioned Indonesian economic policy under the New Order government after it took power in 1965. He was Chairman of the Technical Committee for Capital Investment (1967–73), Minister of Manpower (1971–73), Minister of Mining (1973–78), Secretary-General of Kadin, and later LP3E-Kadin's first director. Despite retiring from the University in 1987, Professor Sadli continues to write and give seminars in Indonesia and abroad. In 1992 he granted an interview to Thee Kian Wie and Chris Manning of the BIES Editorial Board, and discussed his career, economic policy formulation in the early years of the New Order, and issues such as foreign investment, manpower and labour relations, the 1975 Pertamina crisis and government-private sector interaction.     

Transition from School to Work in Japan

Using retrospective data of young people's work experience in Japan, this paper found that initial labor market conditions, i.e., when workers first enter the labor market after permanently leaving school, have a significant lasting impact on the employment experiences of workers in their teens and twenties. An increase in the unemployment rate at the time of labor market entry reduces the probability of gaining full-time regular employment and, more important, increases the future probability of workers of leaving employers by lowering the quality of job matches. It was also found that the vocational guidance or recommendations workers received at school could be effective in raising the quality of job matches. The adverse effect of initial unemployment rates on employment opportunities was most profoundly observed among female college graduates. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 465–488. Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, 1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku, Tokyo 171-8588, Japan; and Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 Shirokane-dai Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8636, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J24, J63, J64.