Semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems in real expenditure

Microdata concerning consumer demand typically show considerable variation in real expenditures, but very little variation in prices. We propose a semiparametric strategy for the consumer demand problem in which expenditure share equations are estimated nonparametrically in the real expenditure direction and estimated parametrically (with fixed or varying coefficients) in price directions. In our model, Engel curves are unrestricted: demands may have any rank. Because the demand model is derived from a cost function, it may be restricted to satisfy integrability and used for consumer surplus calculations. Since real expenditure is unobserved, but rather estimated under the model, we face a semiparametric model with a nonparametrically generated regressor. We show efficient convergence rates for parametric and nonparametric components. We illustrate the feasibility of our proposed strategy using Canadian expenditure and price data: Engel curves display curvature which cannot be encompassed by standard parametric models. We also find that the rationality restriction of Slutsky symmetry is rejected in the fixed‐coefficients model, but not in the varying‐coefficients model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

The cyclical nature of markups in Canadian manufacturing: A production theory approach

In this paper the effects of cost and demand characteristics on the magnitude and cyclical behaviour of markups in Canadian manufacturing are measured within a production theory framework. Price to marginal cost ratios for various manufacturing industries are computed, and the impact art their secular and cyclical trends from changes in capacity utilization, scale economies, variable input prices, import competition, unemployment and other exogenous market and technological determinants are explored using adjusted markup indexes and elasticities. The measured price margins seem weakly procyclical. Further, evaluation of the determinants of these cycles suggests that the procyclical nature of markups is primarily related to exogenous factors affecting costs such as energy price ‘shocks’, and that cost characteristics underlying scale economies provide a countercyclical influence that counteracts the profitability arising from markups.     

The Sources of Change in Canadian Industry Output

Canadian input–output tables for 1961, 1971, 1976, and 1981 are used to apply the techniques of Feldman et al., (1987) to decompose the sources of change in Canadian industrial output. The results of the decompositions are in general agreement with the finding by Feldman et al., that, while changes in output levels may be attributed primarily to changing final demands, technical coefficient effects are relatively more important among the fastest growing and declining industries. For Canada, however, technical coefficient effects are generally more important in the declining industries, and less so for the fastest growing industries. Furthermore, technical coefficient effects have become relatively more important in a greater number of industries over time, especially among industries in which output levels have been falling. The results also suggest that the combined bridge and technical coeficient effect overstates the actual effect of shifts in the structure of industry production. When bridge coefficient effects are separated from the technical coefficient effects and included in total final demand effects, the results provide additional evidence that final demand continues to be the major source of both absolute and relative rates of output growth for the majority of Canadian industries.     

Estimation of collective household models with Engel curves

The structural consumer demand methods used to estimate the parameters of collective household models are typically either very restrictive and easy to implement or very general and difficult to estimate. In this paper, we provide a middle ground. We adapt the very general framework of [Browning, M., Chiappori, P.A., Lewbel, A., 2004. Estimating Consumption Economies of Scale, Adult Equivalence Scales, and Household Bargaining Power, Boston College Working Papers in Economics 588] by adding a simple restriction that recasts the empirical model from a highly nonlinear demand system with price variation to a slightly nonlinear Engel curve system. Our restriction has an interpretation in terms of the behaviour of household scale economies and is testable. Our method identifies the levels of (not just changes in) household resource shares, and a variant of equivalence scales called indifference scales. We apply our methodology to Canadian expenditure data.     

Profit Margins,Adjustment Costs and the Business Cycle: An Application to Spanish Manufacturing Firms*

The objective of this paper is to investigate the cyclical behaviour of mark‐ups, using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1990–1998. Margins are estimated from the optimal conditions derived from the firm's optimisation problem, which assumes that labour inputs are subject to adjustment costs. A number of results emerge from the estimations. First, we find positive and asymmetric adjustment costs for permanent labour inputs. Second, price‐cost margins are markedly procyclical. Our estimates suggest that labour adjustment costs more than double the variability of average margins with respect to Lerner indexes. Third, we find differences in the parameters of the adjustment technology across industries which make markups of intermediate and production good industries more cyclical than consumer good industries. Finally, industry‐specific price‐cost margins are higher in more concentrated industries.     

The formulation of a linear economic plan for implementation by an optimal combination of command and financial stimulus

Conclusions Command and market activities may be viewed as having different coefficients and different mechanisms of implementation. The command activities are implemented by direct order, the market activities by the producers or consumers optimizing their individual preference functions without regard to state preferences, except as so far these are directly affecting their budgets, via i) direct taxes or subsidies upon their activities, ii) the price system, and iii) lump taxes (subsidies).An optimal combination of command and market activities may be obtained by describing the social system as a linear programme with some constraints and variables based upon the producers and consumers preference functions, and finding its optimal primal and dual solutions. These solutions may be used for directing the command activities, for constructing the tax-subsidy system and for information about equilibrium prices and activity levels.     

Aggregation in Input–Output Models: Prices and Quantities

This paper develops a joint theory of aggregation of input–output quantity and price models. The main emphasis is on the problem of aggregation of industries in the models. While aggregation of quantity models is a familiar topic in economic literature, the aggregation of price models is a largely unexplored subject. Here, however, quantity and price models are considered as two parts of a single, composite flow model. This understanding implies that each result in the quantity model has dual counterpart in the price model and vice versa. Through consistent use of this duality principle, significant results are developed for both model types, and a number of well-known results can be stated in a simpler way. Specifically, a number of conditions for perfect aggregation of final demands, primary inputs and industries in price models as well as quantity models are formulated. On this basis a new indicator of aggregation bias is suggested. The indicator can be decomposed into the contributions of each detailed industry, enabling the user to identify atypical industries in each group. Furthermore, the indicator can be computed even with no knowledge of the coefficients of the detailed models.     

The demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing: An example of the estimation of production structures with many inputs

A model is presented for the estimation of production structures with many inputs when aggregation into a small number of aggregate inputs is undesirable. The procedure utilized is one of two-stage optimization, valid under the assumption of homothetic separability. A unique feature is the use of duality theory to integrate the two stages through the generation in the first stage of an instrumental variable for the aggregate price index of the separable disaggregated factors. The conceptual model is then applied to an analysis of the demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing, in which six energy components are explicitly included in the set of factors of production.     

Irrelevance of the soft budget constraint for the shortage phenomenon

Kornai's thesis that shortage results from demand expansions bred by the soft budget constraint, derives from his implicit assumption that price regimes of input and output firms are different. Since any firm is both an input and an output firm, which discards the assumption as logically untenable, excess demand can only turn up because of lower than contracted inputs of labor and management that are not offset by an adequate downward adjustment of earnings. Expansions of demand that appear to be autonomous, are incited by uncertain deliveries of inputs, that is, by inefficiency (of output firms) as well. A by far the largest part of excess demand can be explained by state preferences for fast growth. As planners are more successful in generating investment, and the ensuing consumer, demand than in expanding production, shortage is inevitable regardless of the character of the firms' budget constraints.     

Import competition and market power: Canadian evidence

This study estimates price–marginal cost mark-ups for Canadian manufacturing industries during the 1970s in order to assess the impact of import competition on domestic market power. The results are mixed. Based on the analysis, there is no consistent evidence that imports reduced the mark-ups of Canadian firms during that period.     

THE DEMAND FOR GASOLINE: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA

In this paper we investigate the demand for gasoline in Canada using recent annual expenditure data from the Canadian Survey of Household Spending, over a 13‐year period from 1997 to 2009, on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector: gasoline, local transportation, and intercity transportation. In doing so, we use three of the most widely used locally flexible functional forms, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), the quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) of Banks et al. (1997)—an extension of the simple AIDS model that can generate quadratic Engel curves—and the Minflex Laurent model of Barnett (1983), which can also generate quadratic Engel curves. We pay explicit attention to economic regularity, argue that unless regularity is attained by luck, flexible functional forms should always be estimated subject to regularity as suggested by Barnett (2002), and impose local curvature to produce inference consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. Our findings indicate that the curvature‐constrained Minflex Laurent model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the Canadian demand for gasoline. Our estimates show that the own‐price elasticity for gasoline demand in Canada is between ? 0.738 and ? 0.570 —less elastic than previously reported in the literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maximizing public value for subsidized non-profit firms: a mathematical economic model

In many public service industries, firms are assumed to maximize certain public goals and are not allowed to make any profits. These public service firms are financed by fixed and variable subsidies and fees-for-services paid by users. Standard economic models, such as the profit maximization and cost minimization model, are not suitable for describing the production structure and the economic behavior of these firms. Productivity and efficiency measures derived from these models therefore are not accurate. This paper derives a model that fits this type of firm and its economic context. It derives the exact mathematical relationships between public value, services delivered, (money) revenues, costs, service prices, resource prices and subsidies. In an empirical setting the model can be used as a reference to calculate productivity and efficiency scores. The usability of the model is demonstrated by an application to Social Labor Services in the Netherlands.     

Random Advertising and Monopolistic Price Dispersion

We investigate the role of price advertising in a market where consumers are imperfectly informed about prices. We consider a monopolist whose demand depends on price and advertising expenditure. This demand function is derived from optimizing behavior of consumers. Uninformed consumers may pay a cost to visit the seller and obtain price information. Advertising enables the monopolist to increase the number of informed consumers. In equilibrium the uninformed consumers form rational price expectations, and the seller necessarily adopts a random pricing and advertising strategy.     

Fixprice-flexprice industries among Malaysian agrobased manufacturing: An input-output approach

Industries can be classified into fixprice sectors according to their pricing behaviour. Although Hicks and Morishima have broadly classified manufacturing industries into fixprice and the rest of the economy into flexprice, using cost-based input-output models, the present paper reclassifies Malaysian agrobased manufacturing into flexprice and nonagrobased manufacturing into fixprice categories. By compiling annual sectoral price indices, both for intermediate and primary inputs, the model estimates sectoral residual profits of 1978 and 1983 vintage technologies.     

Productivity and computers in Canadian banking

Canadian banks have invested millions in computer systems in the last two decades. Yet the banks and outside observers have been uncertain that these investments have had net benefits. In this paper, unique data collected directly from a bank is used to investigate the impact of these investments on bank output, input and productivity. Using data from 1974–1987, a translog cost model is estimated. Both capital and labor are divided into information and noninformation inputs. The results are generally consistent with economic theory. The attempt to separate technical change from possible scale effects is very sensitive to alternative specification. Overall there has been some productivity growth associated with the changing computer technology. However, many of the benefits seem to have accrued to the customer and have not directly lead to gains for the bank.     

Estimating total factor productivity using parametric,nonstochastic cost frontiers

The standard approach to measuring total factor productivity can produce biased results if the data are drawn from a market that is not in long-run competititve equilibrium. This article presents a methodology for adjusting data on output and variable inputs to the values they would have if the market were in long-run competitive equilibrium, given the fixed inputs and input prices. The method uses nonstochastic, parametric translog cost frontiers and calculates equilibrium values for output and varible inputs using an iterative linear programming procedure. Data from seven industries for 1970–1979 are used to illustrate the methodology.The editor for this paper was William H. Greene.     

Sources of Structural Change for the UK Service Industries 1979–84

Over the period 1979 to 1984 the UK economy experienced severe structural change in that the oil and services sectors increased their share of employment and output, whilst the share of manufacturing fell by about 5 percentage points. This paper uses input–output tables for 1979 and 1984 to decompose the changes in output of total marketed services and the component industries into the changes due to price changes and those due to volume changes. The volume changes are, in turn, decomposed into those internal to the service industries, e.g. changes in demand for business services by communication, and those external to the industries, e.g. changes in demand for services by manufacturing. The analysis is done at a 101-industry level with results presented in the paper for the five service industries, Distribution and Catering, Transport, Communications, Business Services and Other Market Services. The paper is intended to give insight into the answers to the following questions: How much of the increase in service output has been due to the reallocation of activities previously done within manufacturing? In what respects were services insulated from the effects of the general recession 1979-812? Has the recent growth in services output been due to more consumers' expenditure and other. final demand or to other factors? The main conclusion is that changes in Input–Output coefficients were very important for structure change in UK services, almost entirely because they dominated the fastest-growing sector, business services.     

The economics of property taxes and land values: The elasticity of supply of structures

Land values are explained by diminishing returns to a variable factor, structure, added to fixed land. The total cost minimizing structural density determined by land value, occurs where the marginal cost of increased density equals the average cost of structure plus land. Structural demand prices equal marginal costs in equilibrium determining land demands. A general equilibrium land price establishes the uses, prices and densities of structures. A simple method of calculating structure supply elasticity and the incidence and deadweight loss of property taxes is developed. Differing property tax rates are found to be efficient.     

中国房地产开发及投资经济效应分析

房地产业在我国国民经济中处于举足轻重的地位,房价的大幅涨跌都会对经济运行造成严重影响。从微观角度,通过对地产开发成本费用的分析,发现以地价和税收为主的整个政府性费用支出占到了房地产开发费用支出的近50%,而房地产开发所得的销售收入中也有近1/3以上的销售收入流向政府。因此,抑制过热的房地产市场,控制不断高涨的房地产价格,政府肩负重要责任。从宏观角度,通过对辽宁省2005年一季度到2010年底二季度的GDP数据以及房地产投资季度数据的定量分析,发现房地产投资与经济增长之间的长期弹性为0.48,存在长期均衡关系。