对农村信用社高管人员激励与监管的博弈分析

农村信用社资产所有者与其高级管理人员之间关于规避道德风险（隐藏行动）的博弈,实质是高级管理人员激励机制的设计。激励机制要求农村信用社向高级管理人员让渡一部分利润。金融监管机构与农村信用社高级管理人员之间在监管行为上存在静态的非重复博弈,最优的监管概率和违规概率是一种混合策略纳什均衡。只有同时通过激励机制和监管机制,才能有效规避农村信用社高级管理人员的道德风险和违规行为。     

Gender Inequalities and Economic Efficiency: New Evidence from Cassava‐based Farm Holdings in Rural South‐western Nigeria

Abstract: It is a widely accepted fact that persistent inequality between men and women constrains a society's productivity and ultimately slows its rate of economic growth. The economy pays for this inequality in reduced labour productivity today and diminished national output tomorrow. Motivated by this, the study aim is to assess the possibilities of enhancing productivity gains by improving the efficiency of small‐scale agriculture through gender‐responsive intra‐household allocation of resources in south‐western Nigeria. The study adopts a stochastic parametric decomposition method which yields efficiency measures that are not distorted by statistical noise to estimate the efficiency level of resource allocation by small‐scale cassava producers. The results indicate that average overall productive efficiency in the sample was 75.78 per cent, implying that small‐scale cassava farmers in the sample could reduce total variable cost by 24.22 per cent if they reduce labour, fertilizer, land and capital applications to levels observed in the changing input mix (technical efficiency) and then obtain optimal input mix for the given input prices and technology (allocative efficiency). The average technical efficiency and allocative efficiency indexes for the sample were 82.2 per cent and 92.2 per cent respectively. Also, evidence from empirical analysis of data from the male respondents showed that the average economic, technical and allocative efficiency indexes were 88.06 per cent, 89.34 per cent and 78.67 per cent respectively while the same computed for the female sample were 94.9 per cent, 74.85 per cent and 71.03 per cent respectively. Labour was the most limiting factor in cassava production suggesting that the technologies that enhance the productivity of labour are likely to achieve significant positive effects on cassava production. The paper shares the notion that producers' control over the means of production and impact of development are related and has influence on the economic efficiency and growth of society. Again, technical inefficiency constituted a more serious problem than allocative inefficiency, thus most cost savings will accrue to improvement in technical efficiency.     

Technical Efficiency Measures and Its Determinants for Olive Producing Farms in Tunisia: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

Abstract: This paper investigates farm level technical efficiency of production and its determinants in a sample of 178 olive producing farms in Tunisia using a stochastic frontier production function approach applied to cross‐section data. Results indicate that technical efficiency of production in the sample of olive producing farms investigated ranges from a minimum of 58.5 per cent to a maximum of 95.5 per cent with an average technical efficiency estimate of 82 per cent. This suggests that olive producers may increase their production by as much as 18 per cent through more efficient use of production inputs. Further, the estimated coefficients in the technical inefficiency model indicate the positive effect on technical efficiency of the share of productive trees, the share of skilled labour and agricultural training. However, a negative relationship between technical efficiency and fruit trees is found.     

An exploration of the use of language training in exporting firms. Case studies from Northamptonshire

Despite the importance of using foreign languages as a means of increasing competitiveness in overseas markets, there is little empirical data on how firms use languages and access training as part of a competitive strategy. Based on interviews with the owner/managers of 14 firms in Northamptonshire, this paper considers their use of language training. A detailed investigation was carried out of the type of training used in the surveyed firms. Through the use of in-depth interviews, the diverse strategies used by the firms were revealed. The implications for local training providers are also discussed.     

On the conduct of monetary policy in Vietnam

Vietnam has the highest inflation rate in Southeast Asia (over 20 per cent year‐on‐year in 2011). This paper examines the extent to which inflation in Vietnam is due to its conduct of monetary policy. It is argued that, had the central bank implemented policy on a more timely basis, inflation would not have been as high as it was, but the more fundamental problem is that the central bank does not have the tools it needs to conduct monetary policy effectively. Monetary policy is further complicated by Vietnam's exchange rate policy. By choosing to peg the currency and maintain fairly free capital mobility, the country has all but given up the ability to pursue an independent monetary policy. As a consequence, the central bank is forced to attempt to sterilise its foreign exchange interventions, which it is ill‐equipped to do. The paper argues that financial sector liberalisation is needed not only to promote growth but also to maintain macroeconomic stability.     

Monetary Aggregates Targeting,Inflation Targeting and Inflation Stabilization in Ghana

The central bank of Ghana (BoG) has operated monetary aggregates targeting and inflation targeting since the 1980s, to ensure enhanced output growth, low unemployment and stable, low inflation. Under inflation targeting, the inflation rate averaged 13.26 per cent per annum between 2007 and 2015, compared with 29.22 per cent per annum under monetary aggregates targeting. The relatively lower inflation rates notwithstanding, an average inflation rate of 13.2 per cent per annum is far above the medium‐term target of 8 per cent. This paper has examined the effectiveness of monetary aggregates targeting and inflation targeting in keeping inflation at moderate levels. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to the data covering the period 1970–2015. The results show that monetary targeting has steered inflation to moderate levels only in the short run while inflation targeting has maintained low inflation rates in both short run and long run. But neither regime has kept inflation at stable levels and within the target band, due to the sluggish transmission of broad money supply and prime rate changes to inflation. We implore the monetary authorities to strengthen the institutional setup for steering short‐term interest rates in Ghana. They should also enhance the BoG Act 2002 (Act 612), to develop secondary anchors and rules around output, money supply and fiscal deficit. Finally, the monetary policy committee should monetary policy credibility and transparency through strengthening its communication framework.     

Management,managers, and revolution

Management and managers play a critical role in revolutionary societies. During revolutions the increased demand for and decreased supply of managers create a costly management gap. Revolutionary governments face significant problems in mobilizing and developing managers for state-owned enterprises and in motivating private sector managers who face eroding social status and changing societal values. Meeting the management needs in the state enterprises requires significant efforts in management training as well as organizational changes. With the private sector the government's task involves identifying areas of goal congruency and developing cooperative relationships around these. Conflictive relationships with some segments of the private sector complicate the task. This article's emperical basis is derived primarily from the Nicaraguan experience. A final section suggests avenues for further research on management and revolution.     

MODELLING INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

We employ an expectations augmented Phillips curve framework to investigate the link between inflation, unit labour costs, the output gap, the real exchange rate and inflation expectations. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find evidence consistent with mark‐up behaviour of output prices over unit labour costs. Most importantly, we find that the mark‐up in the South African economy is much higher than in the U.S. For South Africa we find a markup of about 30 per cent: three times as high as the 10 per cent markup found for the U.S.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Forces of economic growth in China,India, and other Asian countries

This paper applies different approaches to modelling sources of economic growth from time series and panel data sets for 10 Asian countries over the period 1970–2010. After being subjected to fragility tests, the cross‐country estimates indicate that investment, together with policy variables and openness to trade, explains about 90 per cent of the estimated 3.2 per cent steady‐state growth rate for the region. Regional growth policy points to expanding trade, supporting financial development, and maintaining sound investment environments. Although country‐specific growth effects vary, the results imply that different estimation methods, combined with fragility tests, can help establish stronger links between growth theory and policy advice.     

公司治理因素对内部资本市场效率影响的分析

在阐述了内部资本市场的产生及内部资本市场有效率与无效率方面的基础上,从公司治理的角度分析了影响内部资本市场配置效率的原因,本文认为,CEO与所有者之间的代理问题,总部CEO与部门经理之间的代理问题以及股东行为问题是影响内部资本市场配置效率的公司治理方面原因。     

Equilibrium Earnings Management,Incentive Contracts,and Accounting Standards*

In this paper, we model earnings management as a consequence of the interaction among self‐interested economic agents ‐ namely, the managers, the shareholders, and the regulators. In our model, a manager controls a stochastic production technology and makes periodic accounting reports about his or her performance; an owner chooses a compensation contract to induce desirable managerial inputs and reporting choices by the manager; and a regulatory body selects and enforces accounting standards to achieve certain social objectives. We show that various economic trade‐offs give rise to endogenous earnings management. Specifically, the owner may reduce agency costs by designing a compensation contract that tolerates some earnings management because such a contract allocates the compensation risk more efficiently. The earnings‐management activity produces accounting reports that deviate from those prescribed by accounting standards. Given such reports, the valuation of the firm may be nonlinear and s‐shaped, thereby recognizing the manager's reporting incentives. We also explore policy implications, noting that (1) the regulator may find enforcing a zero‐tolerance policy ‐ no earnings management allowed ‐ economically undesirable; and (2) when selecting the optimal accounting standard, valuation concerns may conflict with stewardship concerns. We conclude that earnings management is better understood in a strategic context that involves various economic trade‐offs.     

‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ in Japanese firms during the Second World War: Sanpo revisited*

During the Second World War, the Japanese government and private sector searched for and implemented new mechanisms for coordination and motivation. One of these was sangyo hokokukai (sanpo). The Sanpo unit was basically an organization of the employer and employees of each firm, which held meetings to moderate labour relations. As a result of government policy to promote sanpo units, around 70 per cent of the total workers in Japan were organized into sanpo units in the early 1940s. As the members of trades unions and the workers of the companies that had factory committees were only 7 per cent and 5 per cent of the total workers in 1936 respectively, sanpo was the first large‐scale mechanism for Japanese employees to have a voice. This article examines the role of sanpo, using prefecture‐level and firm‐level data, based on a framework integrating the ‘voice view’ of unionism and transaction cost economics. It was found that sanpo reduced the participation rate in labour disputes, and enhanced labour productivity at least for some of the time.     

Consumer perspectives on the African sharptooth catfish in rural and urban areas of the Northern Province

This study evaluated consumer behavioural patterns in relation to meat products, with special reference to the African sharptooth catfish, in the Northern Province. Personal interviews were conducted in rural Ga‐Mamphaka and urban Giyani. The major meat type purchased was found to be chicken (71 per cent in the rural and 46 per cent in the urban community). The sharptooth catfish was found to be acceptable to the majority of respondents, both urban (69 per cent) and rural (57 per cent). Most respondents also indicated that they would like to purchase canned catfish. A potential market for catfish would seem to exist at a price competitive with that of chicken.     

Job guarantees, employability training and partnerships in the retail sector

This paper discusses the potential value of local, partnership-based employability training and job guarantee programmes, focusing on one example—the 'Alloa Initiative'. The Initiative involved an employability training and job guarantee scheme developed in partnership with Tesco, a major retailer, in preparation for the opening of one of the company's new stores. This paper reports on the outputs from this project, which placed 109 disadvantaged job seekers into positions at the store, and proved particularly effective at targeting the long-term unemployed and those with limited experience of the retail sector. The analysis is based on the findings of survey research undertaken with 86 of the 109 training course completers (a 79 per cent response rate) and all the main partners involved in the Initiative. Innovative elements of the training programme that contributed to its positive outcomes are discussed, and a model for 'managing successful partnerships' is applied, in order to identify critical factors explaining the apparent success of the Initiative. In particular, the importance of employers providing job guarantees is noted.     

Constraints in Access to and Demand for Rural Credit: Evidence from Uganda

Abstract: Like in most developing countries, Uganda's financial sector is largely underdeveloped and concentrated in urban areas, leaving the majority of the agricultural producers in the rural population with no access. However, agriculture forms a significant part of the lives of the rural households, who constitute about 85 per cent of the population. This study uses the Uganda household surveys conducted in 1992/93 and 1999/2000 to shed some light on access to, and the characteristics of demand for credit among the rural population. We employ the probit, tobit and multinomial logit model estimations and we analyse demand for credit and find that Uganda's credit market is highly segmented. The rural peasant producers are largely served by relatives/friends and self‐help credit associations and their loan applications are less likely to succeed, and of those that do, smaller loans are granted. The educated and the young are more likely to demand credit while women are less likely to, and to apply for smaller loans. Therefore, while government's agricultural modernization policy considers credit as an important input to its success and as the government plans to roll out the ‘wealth‐for‐all’ programme, more needs to be done to get credit to the sector and to ensure that it can be usefully utilized. Programmes to promote skills and vocational training to enhance production and training in appropriate use of credit are also needed.     

Non‐legal‐tender paper money: the structure and performance of Maryland's bills of credit, 1767–75

In this article, Maryland's non‐legal‐tender paper money emissions between 1765 and 1775 are reconstructed to determine quantities outstanding and redemption dates, providing a substantial correction to the literature. Over 80 per cent of this paper money's current market value was expected real asset present value and under 20 per cent was liquidity premium. It was primarily a real barter asset and not a fiat currency. The liquidity premium was positively related to the amount of paper money per capita in circulation. This paper money traded below face value due to time‐discounting, rather than depreciation. Past scholars have simply confused depreciation with time‐discounting.     

Situation analysis of an informal settlement in the Vaal Triangle

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has indicated that urban poverty is found primarily in squatter settlements. At present one in seven (13,5 per cent) of all South African households live in informal settlements. The major research question is to what extent the interlocking micro-mechanisms identified by UNICEF as causes of malnutrition influence the nutrition and health of residents in an informal settlement in the Vaal Triangle. This question will be tested empirically against the UNICEF framework of immediate, underlying and basic causes of malnutrition. Pre-tested questionnaires were administered to 340 randomly selected care-givers. A previously validated quantified food frequency questionnaire was administered by trained enumerators as the test measurement, and 24-hour recall as the reference measurement, for dietary intake and food consumption patterns. The data were statistically analysed for means and standard deviations. The great majority of the respondents (nine out of ten) live in corrugated iron shacks, and overcrowding is common; 32 per cent live in two rooms or fewer, 44 per cent in three to four rooms and 24 per cent in more than four rooms. Thirty-one per cent of the households consisted of six or more members, 19 per cent of five members, 22 per cent of four members and 28 per cent of three or fewer members. The unemployment rate was 94 per cent for respondents and 80 per cent for their partners. Two-thirds of care-givers (69 per cent) have an income below R500 per month. The main health problems that were observed were chronic coughing (44 per cent) and headaches (54 per cent). The causes of these were not established. Diets were poor and consisted overwhelmingly of refined carbohydrates. The top 10 food items consumed were: stiff and soft maize meal porridge, brewed rooibos and leaf tea, coffee, mabela, white bread, crumbly maize porridge, carbonated cold drink and mageu. The daily intakes (mean and standard deviation) of various nutrients were: 4550?±?1993 kJ energy, 20?±?9 g protein, 21?±?21 g fat and 182?±?78 g carbohydrates. The results indicate that this is a poverty-stricken community with chronic household food insecurity and compromised nutrition. It is hoped that the knowledge gained from this survey will improve the planning and implementation of sustainable community-based interventions to promote urban household food security and combat nutrition-related diseases.     

Managing the renminbi: should China peg to a trade‐weighted basket?

Pegging the renminbi (RMB) to the US dollar since 1994 has characterised China's exchange rate policy under a fixed peg or appreciating crawling peg. The current policy, announced in June 2010, of ‘floating with reference to a basket’ made the RMB 25 per cent stronger against a trade‐weighted basket by early August 2015, while it was 10 per cent stronger against the US dollar. Thus, 14 percentage points arose from changes in the cross rates of the other currencies, notably from the fall of the euro since December 2014. Devaluation of the RMB by 3 per cent in August 2015 just covered the effective appreciation since December 2014. Effects of the cross rates of other currencies could be eliminated by managing the external value of the RMB with reference to a genuine trade‐weighted basket. This could be a suitable intermediary exchange rate regime for China, as the risks associated with free floating are still great. Diversifying further the currency composition of the foreign exchange reserves and other foreign assets of the Chinese government, from US dollars towards euro and yen assets, would be a natural parallel shift. The euro–US dollar–yen exchange rates in late summer 2015 may offer a good opportunity to carry out this move.     

Perceived levels of farming skills and problems of small‐scale commercial farmers in Ciskei

The aim of the study was to determine the potential for improved agricultural production among small‐scale commercial farmers at irrigation schemes in Ciskei, not by removing physical constraints but rather by enhancing human resource capabilities. A combination of individual and group interviews was used to examine perceptions of farmers about their farming skills and farming problems. It is apparent from this study that more emphasis needs to be placed on literacy training in the black farming community. Extension officers should also receive substantially more human relations training. There should also be more female extension workers to cater for the needs of female farmers.