沪港通带来的市场影响及金融风险

沪港通作为一种中国资本主义对外开放的信号,其所具备的优越性能是毋庸置疑的,但是在与外部市场的对接过程中,会极大程度的导致交易机制、监管机制和参与机制的不对等,同时还会对国内的股票市场带来巨大的金融风险,因此,投资者需要理性对待沪港通政策的实施和推广。本文将基于沪港通政策实行所引发的一系列市场反应和金融风险,从客观事实出发,分析和探究沪港通带来的影响和风险,希望能帮助投资者提供理性的参考意见。     

沪港通带来的市场影响及金融风险

沪港通作为一种中国资本主义对外开放的信号,其所具备的优越性能是毋庸置疑的,但是在与外部市场的对接过程中,会极大程度的导致交易机制、监管机制和参与机制的不对等,同时还会对国内的股票市场带来巨大的金融风险,因此,投资者需要理性对待沪港通政策的实施和推广。本文将基于沪港通政策实行所引发的一系列市场反应和金融风险,从客观事实出发,分析和探究沪港通带来的影响和风险,希望能帮助投资者提供理性的参考意见。     

上市公司独立董事发挥怎样的作用?——中国上市公司独立董事辞职市场感知的视角

本文基于中国上市公司独立董事辞职的市场感知的视角,探讨中国上市公司独立董事的实际作用.研究发现,在控制上市公司独立董事的“资源”背景后,代理问题较大的上市公司独立董事辞职的市场反应与代理问题较小的上市公司独立董事辞职的市场反应并无显著差异.说明了独立董事并没有发挥“治理监督”的作用.而同时,具有“政治关系”资源和“非政治关系”资源的独立董事辞职,市场反应都显著为负,说明了独立董事发挥了“资源支持”的作用.进一步地,本文发现上市公司最需要的是具有地方政治关系和企业实际管理经历的独立董事.本文结论能为证监会的监管和投资者的决策提供一定的借鉴参考.     

创新新企业SMBO：管理层收购一剑封喉

作为国有资本退出的一种方式，管理层收购(MBO)自2002年以来风靡中国企业界。如今，传统的MBO模式因其局限性而正在被“战略投资者与管理层联合收购(SMBO)”这种新的MBO模式所取代。     

“余额宝”的强势入局对银行经营的启示——基于银行理财产品的角度

2013年6月13日,阿里巴巴旗下的支付宝公司正式推出“余额宝”,便在我国理财市场上引起了轩然大波。“余额宝”迅速成为很多小额投资者进行保值增值的一个选择,也使很多对理财没概念的人开始领会到理财的魅力。然而“余额宝”在给投资者带来便利的同时,也给我国的金融业带来了巨大的挑战。本文主要基于银行理财产品的角度分析余额宝对理财市场的“搅局”作用,并为在此背景下的金融机构发展方向提出相关建议。     

股票回购中投资者的反应是理性的吗?——来自我国A股市场的证据

本文采用逐步回归的方法对我国投资者对股票回购的反应进行研究,并进一步揭示在此过程中投资者的行为是否理性。研究发现公司现金流对累计异常收益率有显著影响,说明我国投资者对股票回购这一股利分配方式有一定认识,但其他因素在模型中的不显著现象也说明了投资者对股票回购反应的理性程度较低。     

锚定效应对股票市场有效性的影响

建立在投资者完全理性的基础之上有效市场假说是现代资本市场理论体系的重要基石,许多重要的金融理论都以此假说为前提。但现实市场上存在的种种异象却不能为有效市场假说所解释。新兴的行为金融学从投资者心理、行为特征和认知偏差的角度对投资者完全理性的提出了质疑。锚定效应就是行为金融学提出的影响市场有效性的心理效应之一。本文建立了具有锚定效应的投资者"反应延迟"模型,以此分析这种心理效应对市场有效性的影响。     

非有效市场的心理学解释

在证券市场上,由于投资者在做决策时存在着典型性偏差、易获得性偏差、锚定和参照系偏差,使得投资者不可能像传统金融理论认为的那样完全理性地做出反应。投资者在反应时往往不是反应不足就是反应过度,所以面对的是一个非有效的市场。     

论中国A股市场的长期投资价值

2007年10月上证指数创出6124点的新高之后,目前股指大幅下挫了50%以上。其跌幅之大,跌速之迅猛令大部分投资者始料未及。面对这种情形,中国A股市场有没有长期投资价值?笔者认为中国的上市公司绝大多数是比较优秀的公司,他们伴随着中国经济的发展在不断成长壮大,也必将会给中国投资者带来较为丰厚的回报。     

宛西制药私分国资？——本刊对话河南宛西制药董事长孙耀志

河南省规模最大中药企业宛西制药MBO已经有半年多了，但关于它“私分国资”的传闻一直没有间断。尤其是河南省镇平县国企改制黑幕被媒体曝光以后，不时有人拿宛西制药说事。这个曾经的“中国中药企业MBO第一案”到底有没有国资的占有与流失?企业经营者在MBO全程中扮演着怎样不为人知的角色?     

The Interrelationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices-The Case of China

ABSTRACT

Prior studies of industrialized countries have found that a definite relationship exists between the stock market returns and macroeconomic variables such as inflation and real output. This paper investigates the effects of changes in the consumer price index on industrial production and stock market returns for China. Six different types of Chinese shares are examined for the period 1994–1998. The results show a very significant positive relationship between inflation and real output. A positive and significant association is found between stock returns and real output in current periods. Inflation seems to have no impact on Chinese real stock returns. These relationships all hold for “B” shares, “H” shares and red chips. China's “A” share returns seem not to be impacted by either changes in domestic inflation or real industrial production.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

Semantics and capital market efficiency: Testing the market's reaction to the naming of stock distributions as splits or dividends

The AICPA and NYSE urge corporations to avoid the term “stock dividend” and use the term “stock split” when referring to large common stock distributions. Theoretically these large distributions do not convey any economic value to the stockholders. Therefore a rule was considered necessary so as not to mislead them as to the actual nature of the distributions. The purpose of this study is to examine security price reactions to the differential naming of these distributions. The results strongly suggest that security returns are not differentially affected by naming a large common stock distribution a stock dividend rather than a stock split. That is, the capital market appears to be semantically efficient between terminologies.     

Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper reassesses how “experience-based” corporate corruption affects stock market volatility in 14 emerging markets. We match the World Bank enterprise-level data on bribes with a unique cross-country macroeconomics dataset obtained from the World Bank development indicators. It is found that wider coverage of “realized” corporate corruption in the emerging markets investigated reduces the stock market volatility, attributed to decrease in uncertainty about government policy with regard to the business environment, as implied by the general equilibrium model of Pastor and Veronesi (2012). Overall, our results suggest that stock price volatility decreases as the uncertainty about government policy becomes more predictable, which is consistent with the testable hypotheses of Pastor and Veronesi (2012).     

股利政策信息结构与股价行为研究

通过构建股利政策信息结构和时空两维股利信息模型,研究中国上市公司不同股利政策的信息结构、信息环境及其对波动性、市场深度和流动性等股价行为的影响。研究发现现金股利政策公告前,没有发现显著的信息性交易行为;股票股利政策公告前后,市场信息结构没有发生显著的变化;不分配利润的企业在公告前,出现了显著的由信息引起的交易行为;公司发布股利政策不仅能够传递公司价值的信息,而且公司价值信息的传递还与市场所处的信息环境密切相关,不同的信息环境、信息结构影响了信息作用于市场变量的变化路径。     

股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率:基于股市信息效率视角的研究

中国股票市场发展已经经历20年的历程,很多方面都取得了巨大的发展成就,然而对于股票市场发展对中国经济增长是否产生了显著的正向促进作用,现有研究文献并没有达到一致结论.文章基于股价波动非同步性测度方法,从股票市场信息效率这一新的视角入手,实证检验股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率的因果影响关系,为这一领域研究提供了新的实证证据.实证结果表明:中国股票市场信息效率与国家资源配置效率显著正相关,且这种正相关关系在效益上升行业与下降行业没有显著差别,即高信息效率股票市场能引导社会在高资本回报率的行业内继续追加投资,在低资本回报率的行业内及时削减资本投入,从而提高资源配置效率.因此中国股票市场发展具有较好的经济效应,它对经济增长产生了显著正向促进作用.     

Stock price informativeness and analyst coverage

We examine whether more analyst coverage translates into more informative stock prices and apply this to both developed and emerging markets. We measure price informativeness using the association between current stock returns and future earnings. We argue that more informative stock prices contain more information about future earnings. Results indicate that analysts' activities do not contribute to the impounding of future earnings information into current stock prices, in accordance with the view that analysts are outsiders who do not have full access to firm‐level information. We also find that analysts specialize according to industry and that “industry expertise” is limited to developed countries. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the explanation that analysts focus on gathering and mapping industry‐ and market‐level information (macroeconomic information) into stock prices. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

信息化如何促进国内市场整合：减少黏性信息的视角

数字信息技术能够使市场主体以较低的成本获得及时、准确、充分的商品供求与价格信息，减少跨地区交易中的黏性信息，这为促进国内市场整合提供了新途径。文章采用2015-2017年近100个地级市的“数字中国”指数及大样本产品价格数据，使用基于时间序列的动态方法计算地区间市场分割度，并构建有调节的中介效应模型考察数字信息技术对国内市场整合的作用及机制。结果发现：提升信息化水平能够推动国内市场整合，其中促进地区间价格联动调整具有部分中介作用，而信息化水平差距和空间地理距离则具有负面的调节作用。因此，改善信息条件、提升交易效率，构建更为高效、灵敏的地区间供求与价格联动机制，应成为当前促进国内市场整合的必要之举。     

Insider trading laws and price informativeness in emerging stock markets: The South African case

We test the view that insider trading deters informativeness and, thereby, provide empirical evidence on the ramifications of insider trading legislation, particularly in an emerging market, that has hitherto received no research attention. Using the difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that “effective insider trading law” improves stock price informativeness, a reflection of market efficiency, and that this efficiency is robust to both economic factors that affect market efficiency and the choice of control. Importantly, our results support the hypothesis that prohibition of insider trading elicits efficiency enhancement, particularly in emerging markets which are often characterized by weaker requisite institutional infrastructure than developed markets.     

Stock price behavior between the base,announcement, and consummation dates of the merger

This study examines stock price behavior between the base, announcement, and actual dates of the merger. It also traces the stock price behavior after the actual date of the merger in order to detect market inefficiency with respect to mergers. The empirical results were found to be consistent with both the existence of gains from mergers and market efficiency with respect to mergers. The findings also suggest that in testing for market efficiency, the “zero” date should be the actual rather than the announcement date in the case of mergers, unlike other types of corporate events.