Sticky Consumption and Wealth Effects in Switzerland

When assessing the effect of changes in wealth on household expenditures, most empirical studies have used cointegration‐based approaches. These approaches rely on the existence of a stable long‐run relationship among consumption, wealth, and income. However, in Switzerland no such relationship seems to be present after 2001. Motivated by this issue, this paper applies a recently suggested approach to estimating long‐run wealth effects on consumption that does not rely on cointegration. This new approach relies on sticky consumption growth, which can be motivated by consumption habits or sticky expectations. In both cases, long‐run wealth effects are the result of short‐run reactions of households to changes in wealth which become long‐lasting. Using this methodology, the estimated wealth effects on consumption in Switzerland are larger than suggested by cointegration‐based estimates. Furthermore, the results show that there seems to be a remarkably high degree of consumption stickiness in Switzerland.     

居民资产、财富效应与我国城镇居民消费

现代消费理论认为财富是影响居民消费的重要因素,并且各种财富形式对消费水平影响不同.对我国居民资产财富效应的实证研究表明,股票资产在长期对居民消费有负向影响.财富效应微弱,而房产财富对居民消费的正向效应比较明显,刺激消费作用较强.当前财富效应的产生与我国股市发展不稳定及房地产市场的发展特性相关,而个人可支配收入和储蓄仍是影响我国居民消费支出的主要因素.     

我国股票市场财富效应的实证分析

通过研究消费与居民收入以及股价变化之间的关系,实证结果表明,我国股票市场不存在财富效应,与国内其他相关研究结论不同。     

Relative Wealth, Consumption Taxation, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the role of the relative wealth-induced status motive in affecting the neutrality of consumption taxation in an optimizing growth model. It is found that a key factor determining the validity of the neutrality of consumption taxation in both the level sense and the growth rate sense is the desire for relative wealth-induced social status. When individuals care about their relative wealth, a rise in consumption tax enhances the steady-state level of capital stock and consumption. Furthermore, if the production function takes a linear technology form as the engine of sustained growth, then increases in consumption taxation raise the economy's long-run growth rate. In addition, an optimal consumption tax policy provides full subsidies to consumption so as to induce the economy to achieve the social optimum and the optimal growth rate.     

不同所有制行业技术效率的再审视——基于Panel VAR模型和超效率方法

文章采用最新发展的Panel VAR模型以确定投入变量发生作用的滞后效应,辅以超效率方法以处理若干DMU同时处于效率前沿的情况。研究发现,不同滞后效应之间的技术效率存在显著差异,特别是不考虑滞后效应的传统方法倾向于高估技术效率;外资企业在技术效率上占优,民营企业在纯技术效率上占优,国有企业在规模效率上占优,且该结论对不同滞后效应具有稳健性;国有企业的经营管理优势主要体现在电力、热力行业,民营企业优势主要体现在纺织业,外资企业优势主要体现在通讯设备行业;制造业及竞争性制造业在各所有制之间技术效率表现差异明显,而在非竞争性行业中只有纯技术效率表现差异明显。     

Consumption Responses to a Large Shock to Financial Wealth: Evidence from Italy

We estimate marginal propensities to consume from wealth shocks. We exploit large asset-price shocks in 2007–2008 and household-level panel data to implement instrumental variables. A fall of one euro in risky financial wealth resulted in cuts to annual total (non-durable) consumption of 8.5–9 (5.5–5.7) cents, with small effects on food spending. Effects seem stronger for lower-wealth or indebted households, but significant responses from wealthier households and those without mortgages are important for our baseline results. Counterfactuals indicate financial-wealth effects were relatively important for consumption falls in Italy in 2007–2008. The estimated effects are consistent with a simulated life-cycle model capturing the wealth shock.     

Germany before and after unification: A structural VAR analysis

Recent theoretical research in business cycle modelling has aimed at putting forward a unified framework for studying both short-term cycles and long-term growth. Empirical research based on structural vector-autoregression has established that the same factors which drive long-run growth also explain a large proportion of the movements of key macro variables at business cycle frequencies. The present paper aims at applying this approach to study the determinants of the post-unification downturn in Germany. The results suggest that German business cycles were not all alike. Whilst adverse supply shocks clearly matter before unification, it is primarily adverse aggregate demand shocks and a too tight monetary policy which dominate the German post-unification decline in output growth rates.     

房价上涨影响居民消费的作用机制分析——基于预防性储蓄效应视角

通过引入流动性约束和不确定性等因素,分析了房价波动影响居民消费的预防性储蓄效应这一作用机制。研究发现,不论是从长期还是短期来看,房价上涨通过预防性储蓄效应对居民消费产生负面影响,换言之,房价上涨通过不确定性因素和流动性约束导致居民预防性储蓄增加最终会使居民消费下降,短期内预防性储蓄效应的影响系数要小于其长期影响系数。     

Class struggle and economic fluctuations: VAR analysis of the post-war US economy

Building on Marx’s insights in Chapter 25, Volume I of Capital, an augmented version of the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) theory offers a plausible explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations under capitalism. The pattern of dynamic interactions that emerges from a 3-variable (profit share, unemployment rate and nonresidential fixed investment) vector autoregression estimated with quarterly data for the postwar U.S. economy is consistent with the CPS theory for the regulated (1949Q4--1975Q1) as well as for the neoliberal periods (starting in 1980 or in 1985). Hence, the CPS mechanism seems to be in operation even under neoliberalism.     

Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach

Price stability being among the primary goals of EMU monetary policy,it should be interesting to analyse thefactors that led to the disinflationarydevelopments of the last years. Using a structural VAR approach withlong-run identifying restrictions derived from an open-economy macromodel, various factors of inflation for Austria, Germany, Italy, the UnitedKingdom, the United States and Japan and the extent to which they havecontributed to inflation are analysed. These factors are energy price shocks, supply shocks, wage setting influences, demand and exchange rate disturbances and money supply surprises. The latter three are also used to calculate core inflation. Within a smaller model for aggregate EMU data, supply and demand influences are analysed. While supply and demand factors have generally contributed to the inflation decline, monetary policy, enhanced competition, low energy prices and moderate wage setting are featuring most prominent in the recent disinflation process.     

房地产市场对消费支出传导效应的文献综述

房地产市场主要通过房产的直接财富效应、抵押效应、缓冲储备效应和分布效应等传导渠道影响住户消费支出。本文对近年来房地产市场影响消费的传导渠道的研究文献进行了回顾和归纳,并给出相关评论。     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应，构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应，使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后，本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据，通过空间面板杜宾模型，实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异，以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应，但西部城市财富效应并不显著，并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著，而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后，本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角，为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

House Prices,Wealth and Consumption: New Evidence from Australia and Canada

Over the past two decades, a number of countries have experienced appreciation in house prices at the same time that aggregate consumption has increased. This paper tests alternative hypotheses for this phenomenon by using repeated household surveys from Australia and Canada to identify the transmission mechanism that links consumption and household wealth. The empirical analysis suggests that neither a direct wealth effect nor a common causal factor likely accounts for the observed correlation between wealth and consumption in these two countries. Rather, indirect factors such as collateral effects arising from relaxation of credit constraints are a more likely explanation.     

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.     

金融发展、能源消费与经济增长关系研究——基于动态面板数据的分析

通过面板数据系统广义矩估计方法,从金融发展、能源消费与经济增长的角度对我国1985~2011年省份进行的实证分析发现,整体而言,金融发展、能源消费与经济增长之间存在显著正相关关系;按照东、中、西部三个地区分类估计得出,区域金融发展、能源消费对经济增长的作用效果存在显著的区域差异性:金融发展对经济增长的作用效果存在自东向西逐次递减的现象,而能源消费对东部地区经济增长的作用效果最大,西部居中,中部最小。     

我国产业能源消耗对经济产出和就业的异质性影响——基于面板协整模型的实证分析

文章在对我国三大产业进行细分的基础上,基于1985-2009年各产业能源消费量、产值和就业人数的统计数据,采用面板协整模型对三者之间的互动关系进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,不同产业及产业内部主要部门在能源产出弹性和能源就业弹性方面存在着显著的差异,产业能源消耗的异质性决定了能源消耗低碳化对经济产出及就业产生的不同影响,表明低碳经济应与经济产出和就业保持均衡的发展关系。     

经济适用房与高房价关系的实证分析——基于VAR模型

使用2005—2010年的月度数据对我国房价增长速度与经济适用房之间的关系进行实证分析。通过建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,并运用协整检验和Granger检验,分析两者之间可能存在的长期和短期关系以及作用方向。研究结果表明:在短期,经济适用房对全国房价增速起正向推动作用,但推动力先增强后衰减,影响较小且会在10个月后消失;在长期,经济适用房与全国房价增速之间不存在长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系。     

Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model

This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987–2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhlig's (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main macroeconomic variables to identify monetary shock. This study finds that expansionary monetary policy stimulates output through consumption and investment in the short-run. However, expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in the long-run.