The Spatial Dimension of Welfare and Poverty: Lessons from a Regional Targeting Programme in Indonesia

This paper examines the spatial dimension of welfare and poverty in Indonesia and explores the effective policy interventions to remedy the regional economic disparity which was most vividly shown during the recent economic crisis. The econometric estimations confirm the existence of a spatial poverty trap, where poverty persists for generations. The inclusion of the placement of Impres Desa Tertingal (IDT) implemented during 1994–96 suggests that the regional targeting programme could fail to achieve its policy goal when the empowerment of local communities is insufficient. It is suggested that full–scale decentralization could remedy the targeting policy failure.
JEL classification : O 15; O 18; R 15     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

A New Policy for Britain's Cities: Choices, Challenges, Contradictions

The general perception of cities has been transformed over the last decade. The purpose of the article is to consider the idea and reality of urban revitalisation and to examine whether the government's emerging spatial policy will help to strengthen and sustain the revival. Evidence shows that there has been a significant improvement in urban economic conditions in recent years, but the short-term outlook is less favourable. While the government has taken some useful steps along the road to a more effective policy for cities, there is further to go. There are also important dilemmas to be addressed that go beyond a simple spatial fix.     

Local economic strategy and local coalition-building

This paper considers the increasing prevalence of coalition-building in urban politics, associated characterisations of local public-private relations, and the developing function of local economic strategy in such processes. It concludes with a discussion of local economic strategy-making by Norwich City Council, which emphasises the distinctiveness of local policy and the limits of coalition politics.     

Capitalising culture: Liverpool 2008

This article analyses the political, economic and social contexts of Liverpool's successful bid to become European Capital of Culture, 2008. It highlights the juxtaposition in the Liverpool 2008 process of discourses of urban entrepreneurialism and a strong emphasis on community involvement. While the bid is part of a wider shift in governance in the city that has helped reverse local economic decline, it is argued that the increasingly 'boosterist' character of cultural policy in the city raises a number of concerns. In particular, the article highlights the tensions arising from the re-branding of Liverpool as 'The World in One City' and the threat that the emphasis on culture as economic development poses to 'alternative' culture in the city.     

Polycentric development in the Cape Town city-region: Empirical assessment and consideration of spatial policy implications

The concept of the ‘polycentric urban region’ has been popularised both as a theoretical concept for understanding regional urban systems in an era of reduced transport and communication costs, and as a normative policy objective in its own right. This paper explores its relevance to the rapidly urbanising Cape Town city-region. First, empirical evidence for the emergence of polycentric regional development patterns was considered. Shifts in relative settlements sizes (morphological polycentrism) over the period 1991–2011 were examined using population data, and patterns of inter-settlement interactions (functional polycentrism) were explored by analysing commuting information. Contrary to expectations, trends toward polycentric development were found to be weak. Second, the paper considers the relevance and value of polycentric development thinking for regional economic and spatial planning policy, concluding that there are insufficient grounds for policy intervention aimed at encouraging polycentric regional development or countering the dominance of Cape Town in the region.     

Inflation targeting in Indonesia, 1999–2012: an ex-post review

Around the end of 1999, Bank Indonesia (BI) adopted inflation targeting as part of its approach to monetary policy. This article reviews the experience up to 2012, examines BI's performance in hitting its inflation targets and considers certain broader indicators of success. Overall, inflation targeting in Indonesia has been a messy, evolutionary process, and BI's implementation record compares unfavourably with that of its peers. Yet Indonesia recorded a significant downward trend in inflation during this period and maintained strong economic growth. Also, almost all of its inflation-targeting arrangements are now in line with common international practice. Looking ahead, this article offers suggestions for sustaining progress in inflation targeting, such as setting more ambitious targets in the outer years and implementing strong policies to reduce inflation further, including after large administrative price shocks.     

地区市域经济发展趋势及影响机制研究——以中部地区为例

为了研究在新的经济战略格局中,中部地区经济逐渐在全国区域经济发展格局,以市域为研究单元,利用空间自相关性分析和空间计量经济分析方法进行实证研究。结果表明:中部地区的市域经济发展具有明显的空间正相关性,且空间集聚特征呈"U"型的演变趋势;区域投资水平是促进中部地区经济发展的有效手段;河南和山西两省应根据自身特点合理优化经济结构通过各种产业协作促进经济发展;湖北省的地方财政支出政策有待改进和优化;湖南省需要合理优化市场规模和调整财政支出政策;江西省需要发展具有江西特色的经济产业和调整财政支出政策;安徽省应加强了财政收入对其区域经济的贡献作用。     

Are local governments maximizing land revenue? Evidence from China

This paper examines how political considerations affect local officials' revenue maximization behaviors in the context of urban land conveyance in China. Particularly, we analyze government intervention based on local officials' choice of two land auction types, namely, “English auction” and “two-stage auction”. The latter presumably serves as a tool of government intervention. We aim to address the research question: “Are local governments maximizing land revenue?” The major findings are threefold. First, for cities with higher housing prices, two-stage auctions are adopted more frequently than English auctions. In addition, land parcels in these “hot” cities adopt two-stage auctions more frequently during sensitive political events, suggesting that local officials respond positively to the real estate regulation policy from central government. Second, when city leaders are more incentivized to promote economic performance, they respond less positively to rises in housing prices. Third, such interventionist behavior results in a significantly depressed land price and housing price. Despite its intention of improving public welfare, this interventionism can susceptibly cause problems of misallocation and corruption.     

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.     

Participating in partnership: Business leaders and economic regeneration in Sheffield

In the context of changing relations between the state, business, and urban policy, this article focuses on the role of business participation in the regeneration of Sheffield. It assesses whether Sheffield's business leaders have been able to establish a distinctive business-orientated development agenda in Sheffield's regeneration coalition, and considers the extent to which business participation in urban affairs has been influenced by the restructuring of the local state by central government. A further aim of the paper is to explore the relevance of urban regime theory in interpreting the role of local business leaders in urban governance.     

地方官员涉农经历对农产品质量安全水平的空间溢出效应研究——来自中国地级市的证据

在农产品质量安全属地管理的背景下,从第一责任人地方官员视角研究农产品质量安全具有现实意义。文章基于2008-2018年中国地级市数据样本,结合烙印理论,从地区间策略互动视角研究了地方官员涉农经历对农产品质量安全水平的影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现:第一,使用零膨胀泊松模型检验显示,有涉农经历的地方官员对本地区的农产品质量安全水平的提升存在显著的正向影响,且这种正向影响具有持续性,并随着地方官员涉农程度的增加影响更加明显;第二,使用空间杜宾模型实证表明,地方官员涉农经历对邻近地区的农产品质量安全水平也具有正向的空间溢出效应;第三,进一步研究发现,在不同的经济规模、农业发展和农产品质量安全水平下,地方官员涉农经历对邻近地区的农产品质量安全水平空间溢出效应存在异质性,不同类型的涉农经历中乡镇工作经历的空间溢出影响最为显著。研究结果从地方官员的角度对提升区域农产品质量安全水平提供了理论支持和经验依据,可以通过涉农经历官员的交流任职或加强对官员涉农经历的培养,以期提升区域农产品质量安全水平。     

(In)equality and the South African Constitution

ABSTRACT

Does the South African Constitution constrain or empower government, courts and citizens in addressing systemic social and economic inequalities? This article argues that the Constitution is explicitly ‘transformative’, but is an enabling document, providing ‘scaffolding’ for political and legal activities. It is government, strong institutions and civil society that are ultimately responsible for securing its equality aspirations. Here the Constitution admits of different understandings of equality and different economic and social policy choices. This article identifies these contested meanings of equality and suggests that a liberal egalitarian/social democratic version is dominant in policy choices and the jurisprudence of the Constitutional Court. It illustrates this with reference to the Court’s jurisprudence on equality, and suggests that more radical and transformative interpretations remain possible. However, it concludes that we cannot escape politics, the need for good policy choices and effective implementation and enforcement.     

Urban policy and infrastructure networks

During the 1990s there may be opportunities for developing new urban policy frameworks for the management of infrastructure networks. These distributive networks provide essential water, waste collection, energy, telecommunication and transportation services and have important social, economic and environmental implications for the performance of modern cities. However, the limited urban policy links with infrastructure systems tend to facilitate the implementation of the utilities' own programmes and priorities rather than setting a local policy agenda. Despite these constraints there is the potential for developing new urban policy models for the renewal, maintenance and provision of infrastructure systems. These models could provide the basis for integrated frameworks of urban management.     

Reflexive Local and Regional Economic Development and International Policy Transfer

This article looks at the international dimension of local and regional economic development policy. We illustrate our argument about the difficulties of comparing the relative effectiveness of policy using the experience of a comparative study of local and regional economic development in Australia, the US, England and Northern Ireland. The empirical work suggests that the preferred tools of local economic development and their locally perceived effectiveness vary but that careful interpretation is necessary to understand why this is the case. Given that international policy exchange is neither inherently bad nor good, but that it is inevitable, we argue for further exploration of the process of cross-national policy transfer to ensure we are learning appropriate lessons.     

沿海地区受台风影响的易损性指标体系与应急管理策略

台风灾害一直是威胁我国沿海地区经济社会发展的一个重大障碍。构建承灾体的社会经济易损性评价指标体系,运用统计学方法对沿海地区受台风影响的社会经济易损性进行实证分析后发现,我国沿海地区受台风影响的社会经济易损性空间分布不均匀。台风灾害频发的沿海地方政府应通过制定防台应急预案,构建全面的应急预警体系,建立统一的自然灾害信息系统和信息公开机制,引入政策性金融工具建立灾后恢复、补偿的财政保障机制,从而构建一个专门针对台风灾害的应急响应机制。     

Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.     

Telecommunications and the local economy: Some emerging policy issues

This paper provides a brief overview of the issues which surround local economic development and telecommunications. The implications of telecommunications for urban and regional development in the present “information-based” era are outlined and the seven basic features of this development are described. Some necessary steps and conceptual approaches to developing specifically local development policies in this new area are then expounded by way of the development of a “framework for the local policy maker”. Finally, several leading attempts at developing locally controlled telecommunications infrastructures in the UK, as agents of economic and social development, are briefly analysed.     

集聚与中国城市经济韧性

近年来中国经济增速有所下降,但各个城市在经济下行压力下的表现并不相同,本文从人口集聚的视角研究城市经济韧性。首先利用空间均衡模型分析集聚如何影响生产率进而作用于城市经济韧性,在此基础上建立长差分模型识别集聚和城市韧性的关系。研究发现:集聚不但有助于提高城市抗冲击的能力,也能够提升城市经济恢复的能力以及冲击后状态转变的能力;与经济下行时期相比,经济调整时期集聚与城市韧性的关系更为密切;市场需求效应、高技能劳动力的流入及知识溢出是集聚影响城市韧性的主要途径;集聚效应存在空间异质性,集聚对全国总体经济韧性有明显影响。本文研究表明,促进人口集聚是应对经济下行压力、增强城市韧性的有效举措。     

晋升激励与中国经济增长研究综述

政治晋升是中国地方官员治理的重要内容。如何从晋升激励的视角出发阐释地方政府的经济行为,从而对中国经济增长进行“政治——经济”的分析,这正受到越来越多经济学者的关注。文章结合中国地方官员治理机制中与政治晋升相关的三方面重要制度安排（晋升集权、相对绩效考核、隐性治理机制）,对晋升激励增长绩效的经济学文献进行了一个系统的梳理。