Remittances and development: the impact of migration to South Africa on rural livelihoods in southern Zimbabwe

The development potential of remittances has not received much policy attention in the migrants' countries of origin. The Homelink facility established by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in May 2004 excludes undocumented migrants, who are unlikely to use formal channels to send their remittances back home, and studies on international migration from Zimbabwe to South Africa have neglected the role of remittances, especially from undocumented migrants. However, some countries have realised this potential and developed strategies to encourage the flow and investment of remittances, which can contribute significantly to poverty reduction and development. Without such regulations and policies, which require the collaboration of government, migrant groups, the local community, non-governmental organisations and other international organisations, migrant remittances will continue to be used mainly for consumption, with a very small proportion being invested in sustainable investment.     

AFTER MUGABE GOES – THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF ZIMBABWE

This Presidential address briefly outlines the developments in Zimbabwe since independence in 1980 leading up to the current political and economic crisis. The Zimbabwean situation is assessed within the conceptual framework of patrimonialism and predatory states. The origins of the Zimbabwean crisis are then analysed in their economic and political context leading to an eventual “fragile” or “failed” state. Evaluation of the crisis suggests that institutional damage has proceeded to the point at which only large scale economic and political reconstruction offers sustainable long term solutions, irrespective of when President Mugabe leaves office. The address concludes with an examination of the regional implications for Southern African Development Community – as well as the role of the global community – and outlines some of the core components of any reconstruction process‐to‐be in Zimbabwe.     

Determinants of return migration intentions: Evidence from Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa

This paper uses a dataset of Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa to examine the determinants of the probability of their returning to their country of origin. It analyses migrants' return migration intentions using a logistic regression that examines 10 demographic and socioeconomic factors. Six factors – reason for migrating, the number of dependants supported in the home country, the level of education, economic activity in the host country, the level of income and the duration of stay in the host country – are found to be statistically significant determinants of the return migration intentions. The main policy implication of these findings is that the chances of attracting back skills are high if political and economic stability can be achieved.     

Migration and HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Although migration and HIV/AIDS have been examined separately in South Africa, researchers are still far from understanding in detail just how and to what extent the two are interconnected. The connections are difficult to unravel because HIV/AIDS arrived in the country at a time when population mobility and systems of labour migration were undergoing rapid transformation. Without a proper understanding of the complexity of the country's new migration regime, it will not be possible to understand either the role of mobility in the spread of the pandemic or the vulnerability to infection of mobile populations. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the interconnections between mobility and HIV and argues for more research that will further understanding of migrant vulnerability and the development of appropriate policies and models of intervention and care.     

Risk amplification: HIV in migrant communities

The demography of both urban and rural South Africa is shaped by migration, with three unique patterns: labour-sending, labour-receiving and rural areas. This article explores the relationship between HIV risk and migration in South Africa. It identifies the urban informal settlements common in labour-receiving areas as key magnifiers of HIV risk, increasing the vulnerability of migrant workers in these townships. It examines the urban informal settlement, a unique social environment with distinctly high-risk behaviour dynamics, as a focal determinant of HIV. It proposes this framework as an extension of the migration–HIV dialectic beyond the traditionally unidimensional approach, to encompass a more contextualised discussion. This methodology, which uses the environment as an entry point to understanding behaviour and emphasises the importance of addressing the HIV–migration issue within a broader development perspective, has important implications for HIV programming in South Africa.     

The migration and development nexus in Southern Africa Introduction

The role of international and internal migration in facilitating or inhibiting development is currently attracting considerable attention globally. In southern Africa, the migration–development nexus has been researched for a number of years and policy makers in both the development and migration fields are now paying it increasing attention and increasingly recognising the significance of migration for development and poverty reduction. Much of the international debate on this nexus is hampered by the absence of sound, reliable national and local data. This collection of essays by southern African researchers combines the national with the local, the quantitative with the qualitative, and addresses several prominent themes in the global migration–development debate: remittances, the brain drain and migrant rights. It also focuses on key migration–development issues which have received less attention globally, but which are of critical importance to southern Africa: migration and HIV/AIDS, migration and food security and the rural impact of migrant retrenchments. This Introduction to the collection contextualises the essays within current international and local debates.     

Masculinities and gender-based violence in South Africa: A study of a masculinities-focused intervention programme

Violence, and particularly gender-based violence (GBV), has become an increasingly serious problem in the democratic era in South Africa. While numerous suggestions have been offered for why this is the case, a growing body of literature links the perpetration of violence and GBV to the expectations of men’s prescribed gender roles, or their masculinities. In response to this, some organisations have begun working specifically with men as a violence prevention mechanism, through the use of masculinities-focused interventions. This paper uses a South African example as a case study, looking primarily at how men who participate in the intervention understand masculinities and violence, and the impact that the intervention has on this understanding. Results suggest that violence has become largely normalised in the country, but that the intervention can play a role in beginning to problematise that normalisation.     

Migration and development in Mozambique: poverty,inequality and survival

Migration is many Mozambicans' preferred employment option (and sometimes last resort). Rural southern Mozambique, short of resources and traditionally less productive agriculturally than other regions of Mozambique, is now more developed and better off than other rural areas. An inter-regional analysis of the South, Centre and North of Mozambique demonstrates developmental differences largely attributable to labour migration (mainly to South Africa) and remittances. However, although migrant worker households, usually deficit agricultural producers largely dependent on migrant remittances, are often better off than non-migrant ones, many are still vulnerable to poverty. Migration has changed significantly over the last 15 years, with the eclipsing of mine migration and the increasing scarcity of jobs available to young Mozambicans. Despite the overall positive economic impact of migrant labour in southern Mozambique, as remittances decrease because earnings are lower and mechanisms for transfer are limited, its benefit may diminish.     

Price adjustment after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

This paper examines—post‐dollarization in Zimbabwe—the extent of price dispersion within Zimbabwe and between Zimbabwe and South Africa. We document the adjustment process, and the mechanisms of price adjustment after the introduction of the new currency system in Zimbabwe. We show that prices converged post‐dollarization. We argue that the fall in price dispersion is not a product or a Southern Africa region effect. Rather it is a Zimbabwe specific effect and given that price convergence happens quicker the closer the month is to the dollarization, we argue that the observed results are driven by the change in currency. Price dispersion happens faster between major cities and secondary cities, suggesting improvements in information and trade signals between major and secondary cities. These results suggest that the positive effects of a stable currency fall disproportionally on secondary cities, implying price stability not only has macroeconomic benefits, but also developmental benefits since secondary cities and rural areas are on average, poorer than main cities.     

LONG MEMORY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS

The paper examines long memory in equity returns and volatility for stock markets in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe using the ARFIMA‐FIGARCH model in order to assess the efficiency of these markets in processing information. The findings are diverse. Significant long memory is demonstrated in the equity returns of Botswana; while, in South Africa this result is not statistically different from zero. For Zimbabwe returns are characterised by an anti‐persistent process. Furthermore, all the markets investigated provide evidence of long memory in volatility with the exception of Botswana where there is no evidence of volatility persistence and hence the return from taking risk in this market cannot be predicted on the basis of previous values.     

Tenure security and productivity in small‐scale agriculture in Zimbabwe: Implications for South Africa

This article tests empirically the interaction between land tenure security and agricultural productivity in small‐scale agriculture in Zimbabwe. Data for the analysis were gathered during April and August of 1995 by means of an interview survey of farmers in the small‐scale commercial sector, communal area and Model A resettlement area of Zimbabwe. Two‐stage least squares regression estimates reveal that land tenure security has a positive and significant influence on investment incentives and agricultural productivity in the sample. This result has two important implications for proposed land reforms in South .. Africa. Firstly, the result lends support to the notion that indigenous tenure institutions in communal areas of South Africa are a constraint on agricultural development. Secondly, it is clear that a national land redistribution policy must be accompanied by innovative tenure institutions which facilitate economic interaction and internalise externalities on land resettled by individuals and groups. This is particularly important in South Africa where groups of up to 300 families are being settled on commercial farms under a group ownership model.     

Medical migration from Zimbabwe: magnitude,causes and impact on the poor

This article examines the migration of health professionals from Zimbabwe in the face of a worsening economic and political crisis. Drawing on data from selected health institutions, it shows that the magnitude of this migration is increasing, with no signs of slowing down, and that economic factors are largely responsible. This outflow has negatively affected the users of the health system, particularly the poor who cannot afford the alternative health services offered by the better-staffed and well-equipped private clinics and consequently have resorted to visiting traditional and faith healers. Based on the research findings, the study calls for a speedy resolution of the current economic and political crisis as a long-term solution for reducing the medical brain drain from Zimbabwe.     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

Poverty,gender and migrancy: Lesotho's migrant farmworkers in South Africa

During the 1990s, eastern Free State vegetable farmers increasingly relied on migrants from neighbouring Lesotho for seasonal labour. This coincided with a major downsizing of the mine labour force in South Africa, hitherto the major employer of Basotho migrant workers. However, there was no simple process of transfer of unemployed migrants from the mining to the farming sector; rather, decisions were mediated by domestic relationships and household poverty in Lesotho. Basotho women and girls have been a major casualty of mine retrenchments and the drying up of remittances, and those with domestic skills but little formal training have been forced into the labour market, mainly domestic work in towns and labour on farms. This article examines the Basotho migrants' experiences and conditions of employment, the regulatory environment within which they are recruited and employed, and their future in the context of changing immigration and migration legislation in South Africa.     

A development perspective on the role and function of black colleges of education in South Africa

The training of black teachers in South Africa has greatly expanded in recent decades. The expansion resulted from a strong demand for teachers in black schools and from an even stronger and greatly unrealistic demand for places in teacher training colleges. The demand for teachers developed as a result of growing enrolment and an attempt to lower the pupil‐teacher ratios. The demand for places in teacher training colleges in turn developed only partly as a result of the demand for teachers. To a very large extent it developed also as a response to a set of social, economic and political conditions which prevailed in South Africa during the apartheid era. These conditions have influenced not only the numbers of high school graduates seeking training as teachers and the actual numbers of teachers trained, but also the quality and direction of training delivered over the years. The quality of training has been generally poor, and the choice of levels as well as teaching subjects by trainee‐teachers has not been in line with the needs of the schools. To address these three aspects of teacher training — the quantity of teachers trained, the direction in which they are trained, and the quality of their training — it will be necessary to reform the existing system.     

The importance of being earners: why women in South Africa need well-paid jobs

The ‘children fare better’ viewpoint claims that children tend to be better fed if their mother (as opposed to father) has sufficient income of her own for food. This paper assesses this claim for South Africa, using data from household surveys. It considers the possibility that this issue is related to domestic violence between husband and wife, and finds an apparent link between wife's earnings, child nutrition and domestic violence. Children's well-being seems more assured if mothers have an adequate income; but there is more risk of inadequate nutrition in households where there is domestic violence against wives.     

FOOD INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper analyses the trends in food price movements in South Africa between 1980 and 2008. There are three main results emanating from the analysis in this paper. Firstly, food price movements have played a large role in generating inflationary episodes in South Africa. Secondly, while external influences do matter, South African food price movements are mainly due to domestic influences. This implies that national policy has an important role to play in taming domestic food price inflation. Thirdly, given the strong second round impacts, food price movements warrant special attention in monetary policymaking. Core measures of inflation that exclude food price movements may not accurately reflect the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy and could compromise the attainment of the goal of price stability.     

The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbours (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. The multiple interconnections suggest that South Africa's GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbours'. However, our review of the available econometric evidence and our panel growth regressions suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post‐1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub‐Saharan Africa might have decoupled in the mid‐1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re‐integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors.     

A comparison of the migration process to an urban barrio and to a rural community: two case studies

The results of 2 case studies on migration in Colombia are outlined and compared. The 1st study examines inmigration to a shantytown, El Carmen, in Bogota. The 2nd study involves inmigration to a community in the eastern interior of Colombia, Granada. Migrants' motives, paths of migration, and personal characteristics are examined, suggesting hypotheses for future studies. Economic reasons were most often listed as motives for moving by both the residents of Granada and El Carmen. The type of economic motives varied greatly between the 2 communities. Reasons such as "looking for land," "establishing a business," or "to find a better life" ranked high in importance among Granada residents. These motives, along with the flight from violence, indicate that the independence provided by land and small business affords the inmigrants to Granada a certain security. Inmigrants to El Carmen were seeking employment. Only 34% of the migrants to El Carmen made 1 or more moves before settling in Bogota. 90% of the rural to rural migrants made 1 or more stops before moving to Granada. 68% of the migrants to El Carmen were born within 100 miles of Bogota while only 18% of the migrants to Granada were born within a 100 mile radius of the community. The usual pattern of the migrant to Granada was to move to a neighboring village, town, or city regardless of whether it was closer to Granada or not. The majority of inmigrants to Granada moved from distances greater than 100 miles. Over 70% of the inmigrants were born in towns and villages of more than 2000 population. If a nucleus of 10,000 inhabitants or more are considered urban, then 46% of the rural to rural migrants resided in urban areas prior to moving to Granada. This suggests that a sizable proportion of the migration to Granada is really urban to rural frontier. Studies done in Colombia and Brazil indicate that migrants to rural areas have a lower educational level than migrants to urban areas. Data from El Carmen and Granada gives similar results. 20% of the migrant residents of El Carmen have a primary school education (5 years) compared with only 7% of the inmigrants to Granada. 81% of the migrant residents of El Carmen were in their teens, 20s, and 30s at the time of migration, while only 52% of the inmigrants to Granada were in the same category. Approximately 56% of the inmigrants to Granada were in the occupational categories of farm owner operator and farm renter or laborer as compared to only approximately 40% of the inmigrants to El Carmen. The data indicate that a majority of the shantytown inmigrants come directly from small communities and travel short distances to Bogota. This is consistent with other findings of rural to urban migration. It is hypothesized that the socioeconomic level of migrants in a certain migratory stream is related to the perceived opportunity in the receiving area.     

CIGARETTE DEMAND IN SOUTH AFRICA OVER 1996-2006: THE ROLE OF PRICE, INCOME AND HEALTH AWARENESS

The study seeks to re‐investigate the role of price, income and health awareness in the evolution of South African cigarette demand over the period 1996 to 2006. At first glance, rising cigarette prices appear to have played an important role in reducing cigarette consumption over the sample period, especially during the late 90s. But how dependent is the impact of price increases on general economic conditions and overall health awareness among smokers? Health awareness, in particular, has not received sufficient attention in the South African context, due to a lack of data. Previous estimates of price and income elasticities of cigarette demand are based on long annual time series data, which do not allow for changes in underlying tastes and preferences. The paper attempts to disentangle the forces of price, income, health awareness and policy intervention using a quarterly data set. In addition, the study also cautions against the upward bias in estimates derived from formal cigarette sales data – in the light of increasing illicit cigarette volumes in South Africa.