我国现阶段财政政策若干问题的思考

１９９８ 年下半年以后, 中央把宏观调控的重点, 放在实施积极的财政政策上。即运用适当规模的财政赤字和向商业银行增发国债, 加大财政支出力度, 作为启动国民经济增长的重要手段。但是, 如果没有消费需求的支持和货币政策的配套, 就不可能把行政启动转变为市场启动, 这种投资增长和经济回升, 是不会持久的。这就要求政府的宏观调控的着眼点, 要放在鼓励和促进消费需求增长上, 使投资和消费双向启动, 才能带动国民经济增长的良性循环。     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

关于当前宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策

2002年下半年的经济增长不会像2001年那样呈逐季下降趋势,可能出现比较平稳的上升。但我们要清醒地认识到,通货紧缩的趋势扩大和有效需求不足问题基本上还没有得到解决,经济增长的内在动力依然不足。在继续坚持积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策的同时,应研究选择积极的财政政策淡出的时间和力度,不能把积极的财政政策中期化和长期化。     

新常态下经济结构调整与财政政策取向

对于一个国家的经济发展来说,其主要动力来源于经济结构调整。改革开放以来,中国经济结构不断优化,有力地推动了经济的快速发展。在中国经济进入新常态的背景下,主动调整和优化经济结构仍是迫在眉睫的重要任务。作为国家经济管理的重要手段,财政政策在启动、刺激和调整国家的经济运行方面能够发挥有效的功能。对财政政策影响经济结构的方式进行了分析,指出经济结构的战略性调整、优化和升级是今后中国财政政策实施的立足点和着力点。     

我国积极财政政策拉动消费需求的实施效果

1998年以来,为了应对严峻的国内外经济形势,我国实行了以国债投资为主体的积极财政政策,产生了明显的效果,应进一步调整和完善该项政策,使其作用得到充分有效发挥。     

1998年中国反衰退措施效果研究

对1998年反衰退措施效果的研究表明:(1)由于政府预算规模过小,地方政府必须保持平衡预算且不能借贷等原因,财政自动稳定器对1999年经济复苏所做出的贡献微不足道;(2)在相机抉择政策方面,1998年的财政政策不具备扩张的特征,难以构成经济复苏的推动力。这一发现对于当前反衰退经济政策的制定和未来财政体制的改革都具有重要意义。     

推动中国农村金融发展的财政政策梳理与评价

农村经济自身特点、国家产业政策和金融政策对农村金融发展的影响在相当程度上与财政政策有关,因为农村经济特点是客观存在的,在市场经济条件下这些问题的解决需要通过财政分配来缓解;而国家产业政策与金融政策是以全局需要为出发点,其对农村金融发展带来的不利影响往往也需要通过财政政策的运用来缓解,因此认真分析研究影响农村金融发展的财政政策制度因素,梳理、评价现行的促进农村金融发展的财政政策体系就显得尤为重要。     

税收、财政支出与内生经济增长

构建了基于财政支出、税收的内生经济增长模型,并推导出在给定税收、财政支出政策的变化路径时,经济会达到竞争性分散均衡,税率与经济增长存在倒-U型关系,政府投资性支出与经济增长之间正相关。利用中国省际面板数据进行实证检验显示,在我国经济运行中,总产出、消费、投资、政府投资性支出、税率、利息率、工资水平之间存在长期均衡关系。我国宏观税率为28.63%时达到最优值,政府投资性支出对经济增长率存在正向影响,但不同区域间存在较大差异性。     

刺激国内消费需求增长的财政政策效应分析

本文构建了一个内生的货币供给体系,考察财政政策与消费需求之间的关系.通过对1979-2005年的相关数据进行回归分析.结果表明,从长期来看,居民的可支配收入和工资在国民收入中的比重是影响居民消费需求的主要因素.我国1998年以来实施积极的财政政策导致资产价值的不断膨胀和相对价格的失衡,使工资在总资产中的比重不断下降,这是导致近年来国内消费需求难以启动的主要原因.     

政策脱轨效应:评估环境政策的新框架

目前我国尚未形成统一的环境政策评估规范体系,而对具体环境政策进行评估时,可能会因不同领域、不同视角、不同评估方法而带来不同的评估结果。针对现有环境政策评估体系存在的局限性,提出可以客观评估环境政策实施效果的框架:政策脱轨效应。从政策脱轨效应的定义、产生原因、分类及评估思路四个方面构建理论体系,同时根据脱轨效应理论框架分析我国不同时期的环境政策。该框架体系的基本特点是:将不同环境政策的评估统一到同一体系之下,以特定的模型和方法,评估环境政策实施是否存在脱轨效应。研究表明,环境政策实施后存在发生政策脱轨效应的可能性;消费品之间的替代(或互补)关系、单位环境效益和单位产量排污因子均会影响政策脱轨效应的产生;从脱轨效应角度分析,环境政策制定时的决策目标会影响政策实施效果,只有当环境政策以社会净福利为决策目标时,政策实施才可能避免出现政策脱轨效应,实现环境保护和经济增长的双重红利。     

Can a temporary financial assistance scheme prevent a transition into poverty among individuals who experienced a life event crisis?

This article evaluates the impact of the Crisis Assistance Program for Basic Living (CAPBL), which was implemented in South Korea to assist at-risk individuals by providing temporary benefits. National administration data for 30,845 individuals covering 2009 to 2011 were analyzed to compare poverty transition time in recipients vs. non-recipients using a quasi-experimental design. The results indicate that the CAPBL did not prevent at-risk individuals from transitioning into poverty but, instead, facilitated individuals’ transition into welfare recipients. The findings suggest that the program must be fundamentally reformed to prevent individuals from being trapped in poverty.     

Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia

In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary.     

Post-truth Politics,Bullshit and Bad Ideas: ‘Deficit Fetishism’ in the UK

Debates about economic policy in Britain have been dominated by claims that sovereign debt problems are due to loose fiscal policy and excessive spending rather than volatile capital flows and flawed monetary policy. There are strong grounds for believing that these stories are largely nonsense, yet they inform policy and are widely believed among mass publics, and have proved almost impossible to refute in everyday political discourse. The answer to this puzzle, we suggest, is that such claims are better thought of as bullshit (as conceptualised by Harry Frankfurt 2005) rather than outright falsehoods: in other words, as speech acts that are indifferent to the truth and proceed without effective concern for the veracity of the claim in question. In this paper, we examine the characteristics of political bullshit applied to economic policy debates since the financial crisis, and seek to explain its hold on the popular imagination. We assess what makes some particular brands of bullshit more successful than others, and argue that in a world of competing realities as well as competing theories, the power of rhetoric is more likely to settle an argument than evidence and logic.     

财政支出结构与经济增长

通过构建理论模型和经验模型,我们可以得出以下结论:(1)财政支出总水平与经济增长负相关,财政生产性支出与经济增长正相关。(2)财政人力资本投资比物质资本投资更能提高经济增长率。(3)用于科学研究的支出所带来的经济增长远远高于物质资本投资和人力资本投资所带来的经济增长。这些结论对政府今后调整财政支出政策,优化财政支出结构,确定财政支出重点,具有重要的政策含义。     

积极财政政策执行效果评价模型

积极财政政策执行效果如何?需要有一个客观的评价。在凯恩斯主义国民收入决定理论的基础之上,结合萨缪尔森加速数,通过对河南省经济运行数据的计量模拟,可构建一个政策效果评价模型。该模型给出了财政政策乘数、投资需求拉动乘数、消费需求拉动乘数以及财政支出回馈乘数等评价政策效果的重要参数。     

鲁比尼视野中的金融危机和经济危机

美国经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因在西方经济学家中最早预言有可能爆发金融危机和经济危机而备受瞩目。危机爆发后,他跟踪研究,对危机提出了自己的若干独特见解。他尝试分析危机的原因,展望经济发展前景,提出应对危机的政策建议。但是,作为西方经济学家,他对危机根源等问题的认识具有明显的局限性。