山西经济波动的特征,原因及对策

经济增长的周期性波动,作为事实已经普遍存在于社会主义各国。在高度集权的计划经济体制下,这种现象必然反映在各个省份的经济发展之中。本文试图通过对山西经济波动的特征、原因及机理分析,探索经济发展的战略选择     

我国经济周期性波动对产业结构的影响

本文探讨了我国经济周期性波动对产业结构失衡和调整的影响。本文在科学界定我国经济周期性波动这一典型事实后,基于波动周期阶段分别对我国产业结构和产业失衡度的变化进行分析。实证结果表明,我国产业结构变动与经济周期性波动之间存在较强的相关性;经济周期性波动是造成我国产业结构失衡的基本原因。由此,本文提出了在经济周期性波动中实现我国产业优化调整和平衡发展的政策建议。     

山西经济与全国经济周期性波动的相关性分析

经济周期即繁荣—萧条周期,整体上反映了各大经济变量的周期性变动,是与我们的经济生活紧密相联,也是国家在对经济宏观调控时非常重要的经济现象与经济指标。我国改革开放以来,经济增长表现为周期性的波动。且随着我国由计划经济向市场经济的转变,在具有中国特色社会主义的市场经济的条件下,我国的经济周期性波动也有着中国的特色。而我国在进行社会主义市场经济运行里,带有中国特色的周期性波动的相关指标也成为我国宏观经济调控中非常重要的因素之一。文章以山西省建国后经济周期性波动状况为例,简要分析、总结自改革开放以来政府宏观调控的特点和趋势,并提出减缓经济周期波动、保障国民经济持续稳定增长的相应对策与建议。     

山西经济波动分析

山西经济波动分析王建中一、当前山西经济状况的景气分析改革开放以来，山西经济发展的特点是以增长周期占主导地位。就是说，经济增长是景气波动的主要内容。经济扩张是增长性扩张，经济衰退也是增长性衰退。目前山西所处的经济波动收缩期，只是经济增长速度的减慢，而非...     

人力资本与山西经济发展

文章通过对人力资本与经济发展理论的研究,从人力资本角度对山西经济进行了现状分析,通过对比分析找出山西在人力资本方面的缺陷以及对山西经济发展造成的影响,对山西人力资本建设提出了几点建议。     

山西省非公有制经济就业状况分析

"十三五"时期山西供给侧结构性改革的中心工作是去产能,作为能源大省,去产能、调结构、促转型,任务艰巨而复杂。山西非公有制经济在山西经济转型发展中起着非常重要的作用,在促进就业方面,已经成为解决山西就业、再就业的主渠道。文章基于去产能背景下,在对山西非公有制经济就业状况以及存在问题的分析基础上,进一步提出扩大山西省非公有制经济就业规模的对策建议。     

经济周期波动对山西工业结构变动影响因素评析

工业结构变动是工业经济周期性扩张或收缩的结果。投资、价格与工业结构的形成有显著相关性,表现为主导产业的转换和变迁。山西应抓住世界性经济危机和全球产业结构重新"洗牌"的机遇,调结构、转方式,摆脱"比较优势陷阱"和"资源诅咒"。打破传统路径依赖,增强产业结构"软化"特征,促进工业经济由"大起大落"向"微波化"增长型周期转变,实现产业结构高级化和经济周期微波化。     

山西省经济增长与煤炭生产量、消费量的相关性分析

利用19782004年的相关数据,对山西煤炭年产量、年消费量与山西经济增长进行相关性分析,认为山西省的煤炭生产量与GDP增长不具有长期均衡关系,而山西的煤炭消费量与GDP增长有着很好的同步关系,煤炭消费量的变化最终影响了山西的经济增长。该结论解释了山西煤炭的“资源诅咒”现象。山西资源经济要健康地可持续发展,一种符合可持续发展理念的现实选择即是在科学的煤炭价格机制下大力发展循环经济。     

产业集聚是加速山西县域经济发展的根本途径

随着我国沿海地区民营经济的快速发展,广大内陆地区的中小企业如何迅速提高市场竞争力日显重要。文章从产业集聚论出发,着重分析了产业集聚战略在山西县域经济发展中的重要作用,以及山西发展县域经济中存在的问题,进而提出促进山西县域经济的政策建议。     

试论山西经济的特征及发展思路的选择

研究经济发展的前提是对现实有着透彻地了解。为此,需要对山西经济发展的基本现状进行认真地分析,把握山西经济运行所具有的一系列特殊性。我们认为,山西经济目前具有下述几方面特征:第一,经济结构的二元性。山西经济结构中存在着两个极为明显且具有不同性质的生产     

China's patterns of international technological collaboration 1976–2010: a patent analysis study

This study focuses on the trajectories and patterns of China's international collaborations over the period 1976–2010, using patent statistics and association analysis methods. The results identify those government policies that have significantly encouraged changes in the scale and scope of China's collaborations since 1997. The USA and Taiwan are major international collaborators with China, and the top cooperative entities are large-scale multi-national firms, which specialise in production, sales research and development of information or electronics technology; in contrast, universities and research institutions have a negligible presence in international collaborative patenting. This study finds that although China has developed significant international collaborative networks since the 1990s, it still needs to extend these ties to an even greater range of international partners and establish a broader scope of research interests.     

Applying input-output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints

Application of input-output analysis to ecological footprints (EFs) is shifting from an ex-post static calculation toward an ex-ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of EF analysis. This change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination: (1) what is measured by Leontief inverses or extended environmental Leontief inverses, and (2) whether a sector's land multiplier (or compositions of land multiplier) can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector's output to final demand on the required area(s) of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production. The underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector's output and its intermediate inputs (input-output coefficients)—a critical assumption made by W. Leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input-output model—can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector's output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed (land-output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient). By reviewing the literature on input-output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation, this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the EF scenario analysis.To apply the input-output model to EF scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation, this study suggests a two-stage EF calculation procedure. In the first stage, the input-output application estimates only the required raw materials (or generated pollutants) for meeting a given consumption pattern, which is the objective of environmental input-output analysis; in the second stage, the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land/water area, and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data.     

Adherence to guidelines for sensitivity analysis: cost-effectiveness analyses of dual oral antiplatelet therapy

Abstract

Objective: Cost-effectiveness analyses of new treatments for cardiovascular disease frequently require input parameters whose values are known with uncertainty due to limited data. The objective of this paper is to examine the extent to which published sensitivity analyses addressing this uncertainty adhere to Health Technology Assessment (HTA) guidelines.

Research design and methods: A systematic review of published cost-effectiveness analyses was performed for an example drug treatment scenario, dual oral antiplatelet therapy compared with aspirin alone following acute coronary syndromes and/or percutaneous coronary intervention. The following medical literature databases were searched for articles published from January 1997 to June 2007: PubMed, Cochrane Collaboration, EMBASE and the Health Economic Evaluation Database (HEED). Evidence tables were created to show the sensitivity of the cost-effectiveness estimates to changes in the input parameter values, as well as the data sources used for the reference-case and sensitivity analysis input parameter values. The extent to which the sensitivity analyses adhered to HTA guidelines were also examined.

Results: Cost-effectiveness ratios were most sensitive to changes in the efficacy of dual antiplatelet therapy and reference-case model assumptions about costs beyond the trial period. Although alternative values tested in the sensitivity analysis for some input parameters were based on observed ranges or distributions, alternative values tested for many other input parameters were assumed without justification.

Conclusions: Sensitivity analyses in the cost-effectiveness studies of dual oral antiplatelet therapy were not fully adherent with HTA guidelines. In particular, long-term costs and benefits were not always included in the sensitivity estimates, the impact of differential effects on death and myocardial infarction was not explored, and justification for the alternative parameter values tested was not always provided.     

A systematic approach for integrated trend analysis—The case of etching

Understanding technology development trends is of critical importance to countries, industries and enterprises to be sustainable in global competition. Attempts have been made to establish trend analysis by bibliometric and patent analyses. Also text-mining uncovers hidden and important information from structured or unstructured documents which serve as knowledge carriers. This study aims to provide a systematic approach for integrated trend analysis that takes into account bibliometric analysis, patent analysis and text-mining analysis. Etching is selected as the case study for integrating trend analysis method proposed in this study. Also, validity and applicability of the integrated analysis are evaluated.     

新疆信息化水平测度及对GDP的影响分析

近几年许多省份开始主动把信息产业作为支柱产业，加大信息基础设施建设投入，提高信息化水平。信息化水平究竟能在在多大程度上促进GDP的发展？本文立足新疆这一西部省份，利用主成分分析和因子分析，在对新疆信息化水平测度的基础上，分析了信息化指数对新疆GDP的影响。     

新制度主义的制度分析范式:一个归纳性述评

制度分析是当代社会科学领域一个重要的理论分析工具。20世纪70年代以来,经济学、政治学等重新发现了制度对解释现实问题的重要性,形成了新制度主义的制度分析范式。基于共同的逻辑起点、行为假设和理论工具,制度分析范式形成了不同的制度分析途径,如嵌入性制度分析、立宪制度分析、比较制度分析、历史制度分析和多中心制度分析等。制度分析拓展了社会科学的研究对象,增强了社会科学解释和解决现实问题的能力,越来越多的领域被囊括到制度分析中。     

Patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis: an empirical study

Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.     

脑卒中经济性评价研究进展

本文通过检索Springger、EBSCOhost、Pubmed等综合数据库和美国Stroke杂志等专业网站,以及中文CNKI数据库,查找1999～2009年国内外脑卒中经济性评价的相关研究文献,分析脑卒中经济性评价的现状,并采用卫生经济学研究质量评价（QHES）量表对文献进行评价。相比而言,欧美国家进行脑卒中经济性评价较为深入,国外相关研究QHES量表得分较高,平均分为82．7分。国内相关研究尚有限,且研究角度和研究方法较为单一。QHES量表得分普遍较低,平均分数为64．5分。     

中国农村经济发展积累过程形态分析

了解中国农村经济发展的经济结构对认识中国农村经济有着特殊的意义。本文旨在通过全国30个省、自治区和直辖市经济发展的比较研究,运用值域分析、方差分析和回归分析方法、探索出全国经济积累过程的发展形态,总结出地区伴随着经济发展过程而出现的特有经济结构现象,寻找问题症结的所在和解决问题的突破点,为国家经济提供建设性参考建议。     

民营经济从事城市公用事业的相关问题研究——基于数字公交站项目与ABC集团的分析

公共产品是指一种具有非竞争性和非排他性特征的产品或服务,数字公交站项目可以看作为是公共产品.但是由于科技的发展,这一公共产品却完全可以由私人来提供.而无论是从现有技术,还是从政府财政承担能力来看,政府投入数字公交站项目都是不合适的.作者分析了数字公交站项目民营经济主体供给的可行性,并通过对这一项目分析提出了政府促进民营经济主体进入城市公用事业的政策建议.