生物燃料乙醇的发展现状、问题与政策建议

生物燃料乙醇是可再生能源的重要组成部分,其在替代能源、改善环境,促进农业产业化,实现农业增效、农民增收等方面具有重要作用。本文指出,目前我国生物燃料乙醇产业发展还处于起步阶段,其发展尚面临诸多困难和问题;并据此提出如下发展战略：坚持非粮为主,鼓励原料多元化;坚持市场化运作,敞开收购生物燃料乙醇;利用好国内国外两个市场、两种资源。最后,本文提出具体的政策建议：制定并实施生物燃料乙醇发展规划;加强生物燃料技术研发和产业体系建设;加强部门之间配合,创造良好的市场环境。     

发展燃料乙醇对我国玉米生产和贸易的影响

运用数理分析方法对乙醇发展对我国玉米生产和贸易的影响进行分析.研究结果表明,燃料乙醇发展可能会促进农业生产,并不会危及粮食安全.可以通过限制价格这个措施就能动态掌握好燃料乙醇发展规模,从而使其发展不危及国家粮食安全;燃料乙醇的发展可能会刺激玉米需求量的增长、玉米价格的上升,从而导致国际贸易的下滑,进一步有可能会影响到中国失去可靠的玉米供给市场,加剧供求紧张的趋势,但近期内不会影响到我国玉米供给未来重点发展非粮乙醇.     

我国发展生物燃料乙醇的意义、现状和对策

自从20世纪70年代能源危机以来,人们开始寻找新的可再生燃料来代替石油。利用廉价的糖源生产燃料酒精是解决世界能源危机的最有效的途径。文章首先论述了我国生物燃料乙醇发展现状和意义,然后对我国生物燃料乙醇发展的对策进行了总结。     

发展生物燃料乙醇对我国区域农业发展的影响分析

本文利用“中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统”分析了不同燃料乙醇发展政策可能对我国农产品价格、整体和各区域农业生产及净产值等的影响。研究结果表明：燃料乙醇发展将显著提高能源作物的农产品价格,对农业发展和农民增收将起到积极的促进作用,但对稻谷和小麦等粮食安全有一些负面影响;燃料乙醇发展对不同区域及不同农户的影响有较大差异;多数地区的农业部门都将从中受益,获益的大小主要取决于各地区在种植能源作物上的比较优势。研究也指出,未来的重点应放在非粮作物以及第二代生物燃料乙醇技术上（即用纤维素生产乙醇）,并且应该提高在这些方面的科研投资水平。     

推广使用生物燃料是我国的一项长期战略

一、生物燃料的制取及利用特性 生物燃料主要是指以生物质为原料制取的燃料乙醇和生物柴油。生物燃料的发展动因,一是源于国家石油安全的需求,即作为汽油和柴油的替代能源,以达到缓解石油过度依赖进口的危机;二是源于国家环境保护的需要,利用生物燃料的清洁性降低机动车污染物排放。燃料乙醇是指用玉米、木薯、甘蔗、甜高梁以及农作物秸秆等生物纤维制取的液体燃料;     

发展生物燃料乙醇对我国区域农业发展的影响分析

本文利用"中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统"分析了不同燃料乙醇发展政策可能对我国农产品价格、整体和各区域农业生产及净产值等的影响。研究结果表明:燃料乙醇发展将显著提高能源作物的农产品价格,对农业发展和农民增收将起到积极的促进作用,但对稻谷和小麦等粮食安全有一些负面影响;燃料乙醇发展对不同区域及不同农户的影响有较大差异;多数地区的农业部门都将从中受益,获益的大小主要取决于各地区在种植能源作物上的比较优势。研究也指出,未来的重点应放在非粮作物以及第二代生物燃料乙醇技术上(即用纤维素生产乙醇),并且应该提高在这些方面的科研投资水平。     

新能源研究的新视角——对《液态生物质燃料的社会成本收益研究》一书的评价

正吴方卫、孔艳杰两位教授的新著《液态生物质燃料的社会成本收益研究》,对我国发展液态生物质燃料的社会成本收益做了深入细致的分析研究,从宏观层面来分析发展液态生物质燃料的利益得失,角度比较新颖。我国液态生物质燃料的发展开始于20世纪90年代中期,为了消化过多的陈化粮,我国建立了用玉米等陈化粮生产燃料乙醇的试点。从2000年开始,我国燃料乙醇的发展进入了规模化生产阶段,成为世界第三大燃料乙醇生产国;     

燃料乙醇“争粮”与“争地”问题的数理模型分析

燃料乙醇的发展是否会危及国家粮食安全是一个存在很大争议的问题。本文利用经典的数理经济模型和优化模型讨论了燃料乙醇发展引发"争粮"和"争地"的机理及其影响因素。本文认为:在短期内燃料乙醇的发展会促使粮食价格上涨进而引发"争粮"问题;从长期看,其发展有利于提高农业经济效益从而增加粮食供给量;政府只要掌控好汽油和粮食价格之间的关系,就能动态调控乙醇的发展规模,使其发展不危及国家粮食安全;在当前粮食短期内供大于求的情况下,可适当扩大粮食类燃料乙醇的生产规模。     

世界燃料乙醇新发展及其对中国的启示

燃料乙醇是指以玉米、甘蔗、小麦、甜菜等经济作物为原料,经过发酵、蒸馏制得乙醇,脱水后再添加变性剂,成为可用于发动机的燃料.早在20世纪30年代,燃料乙醇就被开发作为车用燃料.     

世界能源的新宠-燃料乙醇在美国的发展及其影响

生物燃料正以不可抵挡之势迅速席卷全球。发展燃料乙醇是美国能源政策的重点，本文从目前美国生物乙醇的发展现状出发，分析了美国生物乙醇发展产生的影响，并以此提出中国发展生物燃料的建议。     

美国生物乙醇产业发展面临的挑战

美国生物乙醇产业的发展已经势不可挡,美国各界也基本认同了美国政府向农业要能源的发展战略.但是,生物乙醇产业的大规模发展将遇到多种挑战.     

CGE assumptions under scrutiny: uncertainty in the ethanol promotion policy in Mexico

Based on a CGE exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in Mexico, we use Monte Carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates. The analysis provides three conclusions: when markets vary smoothly and predictably, Monte Carlo methods can then help to gauge the actual probability that a given program will achieve a desired outcome. Second, secondary markets may display little or no sensitivity to these parameter variations. Finally, a ‘razor’s edge’ outcome with no positive benefits if a critical parameter falls below some critical value, reveals that an economic policy may not be conducive to ‘fine tuning’ by marginal adjustments.     

The implications of the US renewable fuel standard programme for farm structure

We investigate the impact of the 2005 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on farm structure, particularly farm size. We rely on the salience of a new ethanol plant in a farmers’ local neighbourhood to identify the impact of the RFS mandate on these spatially advantaged farms. To control for the nonrandom selection of ethanol production facilities, we utilize a propensity score matching estimator, and to remove impact of farm-level or market shifting unobservables resulting from shifts in commodity prices we employ a difference-in-difference (DD) matching approach. We estimate the treatment effect of an ethanol production facility on farm size prior to the RFS mandate and after the RFS programme. The effect of the RFS policy on farm size is obtained as the difference between these two DD matching estimators. Overall, our results suggest that the RFS programme raised the probability of farm size increase by roughly 12–18%, on average, for farms located within a 30-mile radius of new ethanol plants. In addition, the programme contributed to a net increase in farm size of 25–32%, on average, for those spatially advantaged farms.     

美国纤维素乙醇产业化发展概况

纤维素乙醇是目前最有希望大规模替代石油的可再生燃料。美国政府近年来十分重视纤维素乙醇的研发及产业化,采取立法、与企业联合研发及开展产业化示范项目等多种手段加速纤维素乙醇的研发和产业化进程。本文介绍了美国纤维素乙醇研发的目标、技术进度时间表及几个产业化示范项目的技术特色。     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

浅谈新能源发展模式:园林废弃物生产乙醇技术

目前国内外关于园林植物废弃物的循环利用的主要处理方法,如焚烧、填埋、堆肥和粗加工等尚存在一定的缺陷和问题。为此,在对行道树的园林废弃物进行大量实验的基础上,提出园林废弃物生产乙醇的技术,既能有效利用园林废弃物,降低城市绿化维护成本,又能提供一种新能源发展模式,改善粮食生产乙醇的弊端,在一定程度上缓解我国的能源危机,具有巨大的经济、社会和生态效益。     

燃料乙醇政策研究及定价机制探讨

针对目前燃料乙醇行业发展的困境,结合现行法规政策体系、补贴政策和定价机制,分析存在的问题,借鉴美国法规体系、目标标准、补贴措施和RFS实施与管理,提出政策建议、燃料乙醇新定价机制与燃料乙醇推广环节的补偿机制。     

Valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol

This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency.     

Dynamic interfeed substitution: implications for incorporating ethanol byproducts into feedlot rations

This study examines interfeed substitution with a focus on the relationship between distiller’s dried grain with solubles (DDGS) and traditional feed grains. The dynamic linear logit model is used for the empirical analysis of interfeed substitution. The estimation results reveal that an increase in livestock and poultry outputs reduces the relative shares of corn and soybean meal to DDGS. The estimated adjustment rate indicates that the demand for feed grains is responsive in the short run with about 37% of the long-run response. This study also finds that the demand for corn and soybean meal remains inelastic even in the long run, showing the possibilities that livestock and poultry producers face high feed costs in response to an increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal. The pressures on feed costs can be alleviated by the substitutable relationship between DDGS and corn, but the substitution of DDGS for corn has a potential to provide livestock and poultry with different nutritional contents.