Delivering the goods at TNT: the role of the performance measurement system

This paper explores the characteristics of the performance measurement system atTNT (UK) Ltd.which facilitate the translation of strategy into action.TNTis a successful and growing service organization and a market leader in the overnight distribution of parcels within the U.K. The performance measurement system and how it is used atTNTare described in detail. The authors then draw on the management accounting literature to provide an analysis framework which answers three central questions for performance measurement systems: whatdimensionsof performance to measure, how to setstandardsfor those measures and whatrewardsare to be associated with the achievement of those standards. The performance measurement system atTNTis appraised against this framework. AtTNTthere are five properties of the performance measurement system which have facilitated the translating of strategy into action. Three of these relate to the framework above; the company measures the right things in that dimensions are consistent with corporate strategy, it provides standards for performance through internal benchmarking, and adopts a mixture of financial and non-financial based rewards. In addition, however, there are two further properties of the system; the use of league tables to report the relative performance of the depots, and the presence of a strong corporate champion who drives the message and importance of the performance measurement system from the centre to the depots.     

西部高校教师的质量问题及原因分析

西部高校教师的整体质量问题不容乐观,造成这种状况的一个重要原因是教师中人才的严重流失,但更重要的原因是教师管理与开发存在一系列的问题,如分配制度缺乏激励性,高层次人才引进困难,教师人力资源开发工作落后,工作条件相对较差,个人难以施展才华,人才管理水平落后,人事制度改革滞后,西部高校外部环境相对较差.     

Men, children and the future of the family in the third millennium

This paper examines the effects of demographic change on the foundations of the family. The “first” demographic transition — the massive declines in fertility and mortality — is shown to have undermined the traditional male–female relationship based on parenthood. This has led to the gender revolution in the public sphere. The “second” demographic transition — the increases in divorce and cohabitation — is shown to have undermined the father–child relationship, reflecting women's control over children, a control that increased continually during the first demographic transition. This paper argues that the gender revolution needs to be brought into the family, increasing women's ability to compete in employment and men's ability both to choose whether to assume parental responsibility and to maintain active parental roles with their children.     

Understanding the nature of the risks and the source of the rewards to momentum investing

Buying recent winners and shorting recent losers guaranteestime-varying factor exposures in accordance with the performanceof common risk factors during the ranking period. Adjusted forthis dynamic risk exposure, momentum profits are remarkablystable across subperiods of the entire post-1926 era. Factormodels can explain 95% of winner or loser return variability,but cannot explain their mean return components are more profitablethan those based on total returns. Neither industry effectsnor cross-sectional differences in expected returns are theprimary cause of the momentum phenomenon.     

A probabilistic analysis of the trading the line strategy

We provide analytic models for which the appropriate statistics of the trading the line strategy, N _h , can be derived in closed form. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions concerning the average duration of the open position, E(N _h ), the variance of the open duration, Var(N _h ), the average of the stopped log price, E(S _{N h} ), the variance of the stopped log price, Var(S _{N h} ), the correlation, Corr(N _h , S _{N h} ), and the Laplace transform, E(e^{?s N _h} ). These results are obtained, in discrete time settings, for binomial and other price scenarios. Furthermore, when analytic results are not possible, such as the case of a normal distribution for log returns, we show by simulation that our general conclusions still hold. Using these statistics we point out some of the subtle features of the trailing stops strategy.     

Middlemen: the good,the bad,and the ugly

We examine the role of a middleman as an expert in markets. A seller's effort determines the quality of the good. Buyers observe neither the seller's effort nor the good's quality. A middleman, after observing a signal about the good's quality, decides whether to purchase it and then to sell it. We show that the presence of a middleman may either reduce or exacerbate the seller's moral hazard problem. We also consider a model with multiple middlemen. We find that the seller's effort is minimized if either the middleman's signal is perfect or the number of middlemen is large.     

On the Equivalence between the APV and the wacc Approach in a Growing Leveraged Firm

While in a steady state framework the choice between the wacc approach ( Modigliani‐Miller, 1963 ) and the adjusted present value (APV) approach ( Myers, 1974 ) is irrelevant since the two approaches provide the same result, however, in a growing firm context the wacc equation seems to be inconsistent with the APV result. In this paper we propose a simple model to evaluate the tax savings in a growing firm in order to show under which assumptions the two approaches lead to the same results. We demonstrate that the use of the wacc model in a steady‐growth scenario gives rise to some unusual assumptions with regard to the discount rates to be used in calculating tax shields. We show that the widely used wacc formula, if used, as it is in most cases, in a growth context, implies that a) debt tax shield related to already existing debt are discounted using k_d; b) debt tax shield related to new debt, due to company's growth, are discounted, according to a mixed procedure, using both k_u and k_d. We discuss the inconsistency of such a discounting procedure and the preferred features of the APV approach.     

Contracting in the shadow of the law

Economic models of contract typically assume that courts enforce obligations based on verifiable events (corresponding to the legal rule of specific performance). As a matter of law, this is not the case. This leaves open the question of optimal contract design given the available remedies used by the courts. This article shows that American standard form construction contracts can be viewed as an efficient mechanism for implementing building projects given existing legal rules. It is shown that a central feature of these contracts is the inclusion of governance covenants that shape the scope of authority and regulate the ex post bargaining power of parties. Our model also implies that the legal remedies of mistake, impossibility and the doctrine limiting damages for unforeseen events developed in the case of Hadley v. Baxendale are efficient solutions to the problem of implementing complex exchange.     

Supply uncertainty of the bond investor base and the leverage of the firm

We examine the effect of the bond capital supply uncertainty of institutional investors (e.g., mutual bond funds and insurance companies) on the leverage of the firm using a novel data set. Our main finding is that the supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base — measured as (i) the average portfolio turnover, or (ii) the average flow volatility of investors holding the firm's bonds, or (iii) the prevalence of mutual funds among the firm's bondholders as opposed to insurance companies — has a negative and significant effect on the leverage of the firm. The supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base also has a negative and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing bonds, and a positive and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing equity and borrowing from banks. We take a multi-pronged approach to address potential endogeneity issues, including use of geography-based instruments and firm fixed effects, subsample analyses, and a placebo test. Our results highlight the fragility of access to the bond market for companies that depend on mutual funds with high turnover/ flow volatility as primary bond investors.     

On the relationship between the Poisson-exponential model and the non-central chi-squared distribution

Abstract

Two comments are made on the relationship between the Poisson-exponential model of insurance claims and the non-central chi-squared distribution. The first relates the Poisson-exponential to the recently introduced noncentral chi-squared on zero degrees-of-freedom; the second expands on the link between that distribution and the non-central chi-squared distribution on four degrees-of-freedom, noted by Boyle (1978).     

Interpreting the predictive power of the consumption–wealth ratio

Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S.C., 2001a. Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849] find that the estimated consumption–wealth ratio (cay) is a strong predictor of U.S. stock returns, while Brennan and Xia [Brennan, M.J., Xia, Y., 2005. tay's as good as cay. Finance Research Letters 2, 1–14] argue that the predictive power of cay arises from a look-ahead bias. In a unified framework, we examine how the presence of deterministic time trends affects the estimation and forecasting power of cay. We show that ignoring the presence of a deterministic time trend in estimating the cointegrating relationship among consumption, asset wealth, and labor income leads to a biased estimate of the consumption–wealth ratio. In the presence of a deterministic time trend, cay is a combination of the highly persistent bias component and the unbiased cointegrating residual, and most of the predictive power of cay is attributable to the bias component, casting doubt on the robustness of the forecasting power of cay.     

May the course of the tuberculosis-mortality chiefly be explained by the movements of the infection-curve (tuberculin-curve)?

Abstract

Let us suppose that we have a population which is kept constant by the birth of 10,000 children annually, and that this has been the case for a number of years.     

New development: A new principle—the higher the position,the broader the view

ABSTRACT

The Peter Principle, introduced over 50 years ago, refers to an organizational phenomenon where employees in a hierarchy are promoted to positions for which they are not well qualified (Peter & Hull, 1969). It has been a topic of debate and empirical research in organizational theory and management literature ever since. This article does not seek to prove or disprove the Peter Principle. Rather, it provides an alternative explanation of promotion within an organization based on employee experience. The research presented here demonstrates that the role inhabited by an employee greatly influences their perspective, which may change based on their location within an organizational hierarchy. In other words, people’s horizons depend on their place within that hierarchy.     

Evaluating the penetration of the commodity economy

A recurring theme across the social sciences is that there is a natural and inevitable shift towards commodification. In this linear view of the trajectory of economies, ‘non-commodified’ economic activities are rapidly vanishing as the commodity economy, in which goods and services are produced by capitalist firms for a profit under conditions of market exchange, becomes ever more victorious, powerful and hegemonic. Until now, few have questioned this meta-narrative. Here, however, the intention is to evaluate critically the penetration of commodification. Investigating the depth and speed of the permeation of the advanced economies by the commodity economy, it is revealed that the non-commodified sphere has far from disappeared. Indeed, over the past 40 years, it has grown relative to the commodity economy and is now equal in size when the time spent working in these spheres is measured. Explaining this in terms of both the inherent contradictions embedded in the pursuit of commodification as well as the existence of ‘cultures of resistance’, the paper concludes that commodification is not only far from inevitable but the possibility of alternative futures for work beyond the all-conquering on-going advance of capitalism.     

On the performance of the minimum VaR portfolio

Alexander and Baptista [2002. Economic implications of using a mean-value-at-risk (VaR) model for portfolio selection: A comparison with mean–variance analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26: 1159–93] develop the concept of mean-VaR efficiency for portfolios and demonstrate its very close connection with mean–variance efficiency. In particular, they identify the minimum VaR portfolio as a special type of mean–variance efficient portfolio. Our empirical analysis finds that, for commonly used VaR breach probabilities, minimum VaR portfolios yield ex post returns that conform well with the specified VaR breach probabilities and with return/risk expectations. These results provide a considerable extension of evidence supporting the empirical validity and tractability of the mean-VaR efficiency concept.     

Marxism and the structure of the future

A creative dialogue between Marxist and non-Marxist scholars, involving mutual criticism and due consideration of the consequences of their respective attitudes is needed to overcome the present crisis in futures studies. Within the framework of a new interpretation of Marxian dialectics, the structure of the future is seen as comprising a definite field of multiple possibilities. The meaning of propositions such as ‘the socialist future’ are examined in an attempt to think of the future in terms of probabilities and in the context of a system's view.     

Attitudes towards the future and their influence on the present

Within the last 15 years a radically different orientation towards the future and its planning has evolved in France. This orientation and its associated attitudes and techniques, collectively termed prospective, have had strong effects on French intellectual and governmental life, most impressively in relation to the fourth and fifth national plans. In England and the USA, virtually nothing is known of prospective or of its founder, Gaston Berger. This article is one of a collection of the principal writings which are to be published in English late this year¹. Writing in 1966 the author compares forecasting and prospective in the light of several years' experience with prospective, and he isolates the effect of “tomorrow's image on today's acts” as a central phenomenon underlying prospective thinking.     

Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

The future of the self-image of the human being in the Age of Transhumanism, Neurotechnology and Global Transition

In the present moment of cultural and political transition, one question seems to become the center of most other societal and civilizational questions: will the basic self-perception of the human being change under the influence of the new “neurotechnologies” and its accompanying ideologies like “Human enhancement” and “Transhumanism”? And if yes, how? Applied consciousness research is currently one-sidedly understood as brain research, and it is carried out mainly by the Natural Sciences under the influence of the “Economic–Technological Complex” and its relatively narrow interests. With its paradigmatic materialism determining the cultural spread of its temporary findings, it is already modifying our imaginary about what a human being is, what its rational self-determination can be, and how a “good society” can work. What is at stake with the change related to the findings of the new “consciousness technologies” is not only the principal socio-philosophical status of the human “self” or “I”, but also the related concepts of humanism, open societies, individualism and rationality. Thus, the new neurotechnologies and their “neurophilosophies” are currently in the process of profoundly influencing the very basics of our cultural self-understanding, grown over centuries. This article discusses some of the implications of this development within the greater picture of the current “global mindset change”.