Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.     

Synthesis of qualitative and quantitative approaches to long-range forecasting

Integration of qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches is usually attempted and appraised in the context of improving forecast accuracy. This paper examines the feasibility and potential merits of integrating these two approaches to produce a useful range, rather than to improve the accuracy, of long-range forecasting. Two approaches of synthesis, one beginning with qualitative future scenarios and the other beginning with quantitative econometric models, are described, illustrated, and compared.     

Decomposing household,professional and market forecasts on inflation: a dynamic factor model analysis

A dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility is used to investigate the relationships between three alternative measures of inflation expectations. The results show evidence of both a common time-varying trend and a common transitory component between inflation and short-term inflation expectations from households, professionals and markets. While the common time-varying trend has declined in both level and volatility since the early 1980s, it was found that consumer expectations are disproportionately influenced by the visibility of prices of select few goods. Roughly speaking, a 1% point increase in food and energy prices leads to about 1/3% point increase in consumer forecasts of inflation. In terms of policymaking, this finding suggests that stability in highly visible prices can moderate inflation in a meaningful way.     

史前经济学中的企业家思想

企业家理论的研究,最早可以追溯到史前经济学。康替龙意义上的企业家是从事商业投机活动的套汇者;魁奈视野中的企业家则是农民或是大规模农场的经营者;杜尔哥说明了企业家作为企业的独立组织者和管理者的一般职能;尼古拉斯则强调企业家作为革新者的特征。     

A Comment on “The Dilemmas of Technology”

This paper documents Hohfeld's influence on interwar American institutionalism. We will mainly focus on three leading figures of the movement: John Rogers Commons, Robert Lee Hale, and John Maurice Clark. They regarded Hohfeld's contribution on jural relations as a preliminary step toward the understanding of the adversarial nature of legal rights. Albeit with substantial differences in style, method and emphasis, Hohfeld's schema provided a powerful analytical and rhetorical tool for their analysis.     

Safe havens in the face of Presidential election uncertainty: A comparison between Bitcoin,oil and precious metals

Even though the empirical literature on safe haven properties of different assets with respect to financial risks is increasing, their abilities to safeguard against political risks has not been the subject of large empirical investigations. This paper uses an Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach to look into the time-varying role of different assets (in particular, oil, precious metals and Bitcoin) as a safe haven against U.S. stocks in times of heightened uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Our results suggest that oil can act as an effective safe haven against political risk exposure; but such property varies over time. The abilities of gold and silver to provide positive returns during downturns have been also documented in the medium-and the long-term. Bitcoin also serves as a safe haven against U.S. stock losses but in the short-term. These findings provide useful and relevant information to investors to help ensure better asset allocation in an uncertain environment.     

A quantitative model for the evaluation of technological alternatives

This paper presents a quantitative model that may be of use to the national development planners, investment funding authorities, and entrepreneurs, who are confronted with the problems of choosing the appropriate technology among many available alternatives. The model provides a systematic and analyst-independent methodology for the multicriterion technology selection process, which requires consideration of socioeconomic as well as technological factors. The procedure is mathematically straightforward and has the capability of integrating both objective and subjective aspects of the evaluation process, resulting in a unified technology measure as a guide for decision making. A case study is presented to illustrate the applicability and workability of the development model.     

Assessment of technological appropriateness: The case of Indonesian rural development

It is commonly recognized at the present that technological appropriateness is not an intrinsic quality of any technology, but it derived from the surroundings (technological as well as sociocultural, politicolegal, economic, and environmental) in which it is to be utilized and the specific purpose of its application. On this basis, this paper presents two case studies for the selection of appropriate technologies for rural development in Indonesia. The first case deals with the problem of identifying a “set of appropriate technologies” to be promoted for accelerated rural development. The second case deals with the problem of selecting the “most appropriate one” among available technologies of one kind. The assessment exercises are carried out using existing methodologies and inputs (such as national priorities, assessment factors, and decision weights) from Indonesian nationals. It is shown that the analysis can provide useful guidelines for science and technology policy planning in developing countries.     

美元汇率长期波动动因探析

基于国际金融危机背景来研究美元价值与美国国债、美国股指、经常项目逆差以及大宗商品价格之间的相关性具有现实意义。通过选取美国国债、联邦基金利率、标准普尔指数、经常项目逆差以及国际大宗商品价格指数,运用Johansen协整检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应模型及Granger因果检验等计量方法进行考察后发现,美国国债的泛滥与美元贬值没有直接的因果关系;美元价值的波动与美国经济基本面(包括金融环境)的状况存在显著的长期相关性;美元指数的走势与国际金融市场中石油、黄金等大宗商品价格指数的走势相关,且后者对美元变动具有一定程度的短期预测效应。     

城市贫困成因:中美两国的对比

基于宏观层面,从社会制度、政策因素、结构调整、转型背景,以及剥夺、排斥和贫困文化等侧面对比分析了中美两国城市贫困问题产生及发展的作用因素,以期进一步明确和完善我国城市今后的减贫思路.如何切实避免类似于美国及其他西方国家的贫困文化对于我国的城市贫困治理和经济发展具有深远意义.     

The economics of metric conversion for small manufacturing firms in the United States

Several major aspects of the metric conversion process occurring in the United States are examined by comparing a group of sample companies that have converted to metric production with a control group of nonconverting companies. Data files were used to relate several explanatory variables to the degree or percentage of metric production for individual companies and to compare the financial characteristics of converting and nonconverting companies. Smaller companies, on average, did more metric work for a single customer than large firms. In addition, as the percentage of metric work performed by companies increased, their dependence on a single buyer of their products tended to decrease. The analysis of the conversion process as a function of financial variables concluded that the conversion process was positively and significantly related to 1) long-term profitability, 2) liquidity, and 3) the size of firms as represented by the number of employees. Additional documentation is needed on the metric conversion process in distinct industries by firm size to more fully understand whether the process of technological diffusion is translated from large to small firms or begins in small firms themselves.     

Beyond the principle of population: Malthus's Essay

Abstract

After an introductory section, this article reviews reasons and arguments establishing the invalidity of Malthus's construct of a ‘principle of population’. Section 3 propounds that Malthus's theory is located beyond the principle of population, with the oscillation figure as its centre. Section 4 takes note of the trajectory which the Essay describes between natural and moral science, assesses inequality and growth as the two focal points of Malthus's theory and eventually observes Malthus looking forward to a state beyond the dictates of growth.     

Selfishness, cooperation, the evolutionary point of view and its implications for economics

The assumed selfishness of market actors could be considered in the context of two perspectives: macroeconomic and microeconomic. The first concerns the market mechanism as the most effective from the social well-being or the wealth of a nation points of view. The latter is based on the premises of the nature of human beings. I have distinguished between two possible ways of understanding selfish forms of behaviour in the market: as rational economic behaviour i.e. the most effective from the gains and losses point of view (i.e. public interests in the works of A. Smith) or as selfish from the psychological point of view (this is mostly presented by J. S. Mill's theory). The first approach seems to be concerned with the creation of the most effective market mechanism from the State's point of view. In the context of historical processes over 400 years, cultural evolution “has been promoting” selfish behaviour; for example, it was widely presented in T. Hobbes' works and then for over 200 years, the theory of A. Smith has been supporting and moulding the institutional context of market and social behaviour. Thus, positive economics describes the market created by the ideas of a neo-classical paradigm, which is based on the normative premises of A. Smith and J. S. Mill. Moreover, the virtual market behaviour described by “effects” (f. e. Veblen's effect) and failures seems to be a manifestation of a discrepancy between market reality and the classical assumptions.The social evolution of human beings has been advantageous to the human species. Moreover, from the social point of view, pro-social behaviour is “natural” as well as desirable and it has been preferred by the cultural evolution. Competitiveness assumes that somebody has to lose, because someone gains. Cooperation looks for gains for all the players. The choice is political, and not imposed by selfishness.     

The economic content of G.D.H. Cole’s guild socialism: behavioral assumptions,institutional structure,and analytical arguments

Despite a utopian tendency, G.D.H. Cole’s Guild Socialist writings exhibit considerable economic content. After sketching the historical context of Cole’s Guild Socialism and its broad ideology, we address its economic content by: 1. Cataloging Cole’s assumptions concerning worker motivation and utilitarian norms; 2. Clarifying the economic problems Cole sets out to address; 3. Describing the institutional structures of Cole’s Guild Socialism; 4. Exploring Cole’s theoretical contributions and their relation to modern constructs such as the economics of the employment relationship; and 5. Evaluating the extent to which the resulting body of theory is coherent, non-trivial, and normatively attractive.     

Keynes and probability: An assessment

Abstract

Most interpreters agree that Keynes had a wide-ranging, complex, ‘vision of the world’, which underlies his theoretical contributions. Whenever this is forgotten, as happens in the so-called neoclassical synthesis, not only the original Keynesian spirit goes lost but also, and especially, we lose substantive bricks for our theoretical constructions. The paper considers an important instance of this general rule; namely Keynes's views on the logic of probability, meant as the field concerning human behaviour in an uncertain world (hence connected to, but distinct from, the pure theory of probability, meant as a field of mathematics). The paper begins by recalling the main aspects of the classical and frequentist approaches to probability and the main criticisms they received, pertaining among other things to the limits of their applicability. We then consider Keynes's own views, stressing three aspects: the definition of probability as pertaining to the field of logic, the notion of uncertainty and of the ‘weight of the argument’, the ‘theory of groups’. We then discuss the subjective approach of de Finetti, Ramsey and Savage, and contrast it with Keynes's own views. Finally, we consider the implications of our analysis for the interpretation of Keynes's General Theory, and of his attitude towards econometrics.     

中美科技合作的经验研究——以高能物理合作为例

本文介绍了中美高能物理合作的历史沿革和当前的主要合作项目,分析了合作成功的原因,并揭示了从合作经验中得到的启示。     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

A new challenge to our brains: Finding the knowledge construct for world-level problems

If the ultimate resource is the human brain, the critical question is, “How well are we using it?” For the past 200 or so years we have concentrated on one capability—the power to reason, and in so doing have lost sight of the social and cultural components of knowledge. The new challenge is therefore to construct knowledge that is valid across the many societies and cultures in the world to enable world problems to be tackled in a world, rather than in a one- or two-culture, context.The purpose of this paper is to outline the limitations to knowledge constructed on a primarily rational basis and to propose how to go beyond them. These limitations encourage the reduction of the problems to a quantitative basis, and hence emphasize the measurable aspects of issues, usually the economic and the military. Unfortunately, as Stafford Beer pointed out many years ago, problems cannot be solved within their own context but only within a larger context. Present attempts to attain peace through measures of quantifiable destructiveness are therefore unlikely to prove effective. The way out, as Kenneth Boulding has noted, is to reformulate world problems in terms of peace, since the criteria for stable peace are not necessarily identical with those for the non-outbreak of war. One corollary is the need to reconstruct our knowledge using the whole brain, and in doing so, provide a knowledge basis valid across different societies and cultures. This is indeed a new, and very real, extension and challenge to the use of our brains.     

J.A. Schumpeter and T.B. Veblen on economic evolution: the dichotomy between statics and dynamics

At present, the discussion on the dichotomy between statics and dynamics is resolved by concentrating on its mathematical meaning. Yet, a simple formalisation masks the underlying methodological discussion. Overcoming this limitation, the paper discusses Schumpeter's and Veblen's viewpoint on dynamic economic systems as systems generating change from within. It contributes to an understanding on their ideas of how economics could become an evolutionary science and on their contributions to elaborate an evolutionary economics. It confronts Schumpeter's with Veblen's perspective on evolutionary economics and provides insight into their evolutionary economic theorising by discussing their ideas on the evolution of capitalism.     

金融危机后的反思：中国模式与美国模式的比较

中国经济发展的成就与当前的金融危机从正反两方面使“中国模式”和“美国模式”问题再次受到国内外舆论界和学术界的高度关注。本文详尽考察了两种模式研究的背景、异同及其需进一步研究的问题;明确提出中国模式,中国经济学的指导思想应该是新马克思主义经济学。