Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

On the role of science in the postindustrial society: “Logos”—the empire builder

The hypothesis that language and DNA represent two stages of the same evolutionary path is briefly evaluated. Volterra equations, so useful in describing the dynamics of competing systems are, in fact, equally efficient in describing social behavior, as shown in numerous examples. The emergence of language first, and science later, interpreted as a metalanguage, are attributed to a “hypercyclization” of basic competing utterances in analogy of hypercyclization of quasi-species of replicating molecules in Manfred Eigen's theory of DNA development and evolution.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

A new challenge to our brains: Finding the knowledge construct for world-level problems

If the ultimate resource is the human brain, the critical question is, “How well are we using it?” For the past 200 or so years we have concentrated on one capability—the power to reason, and in so doing have lost sight of the social and cultural components of knowledge. The new challenge is therefore to construct knowledge that is valid across the many societies and cultures in the world to enable world problems to be tackled in a world, rather than in a one- or two-culture, context.The purpose of this paper is to outline the limitations to knowledge constructed on a primarily rational basis and to propose how to go beyond them. These limitations encourage the reduction of the problems to a quantitative basis, and hence emphasize the measurable aspects of issues, usually the economic and the military. Unfortunately, as Stafford Beer pointed out many years ago, problems cannot be solved within their own context but only within a larger context. Present attempts to attain peace through measures of quantifiable destructiveness are therefore unlikely to prove effective. The way out, as Kenneth Boulding has noted, is to reformulate world problems in terms of peace, since the criteria for stable peace are not necessarily identical with those for the non-outbreak of war. One corollary is the need to reconstruct our knowledge using the whole brain, and in doing so, provide a knowledge basis valid across different societies and cultures. This is indeed a new, and very real, extension and challenge to the use of our brains.