Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Disaggregative policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970-1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997-2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however.     

The growth of knowledge: Testing a theory of scientific revolutions with a formal model

Modern theories of science emphasize scientific revolutions rather than the traditional cumulative view of scientific progress. Thomas Kuhn, in particular, has formulated a theory of science based on the lifecycle of paradigms. Though Kuhn's theory is attractive, no calculus is offered by which the theory can be tested. This study tests the dynamic consistency of Kuhn's theory by formalizing the theory and testing it with a computer simulation model. The model plays the roles of the actors, tracing out the consequences of their day-to-day actions. Sensitivity tests are used to explore the importance of various hypotheses. Results show the theory to be dynamically consistent: The lifecycle of paradigms described by Kuhn can be accounted for by Kuhn's theory. Kuhn's theory thus passes a test to which few other theories of science have been subjected. The study shows how modeling can provide a method for testing theories even when those theories are stated entirely in qualitative terms, at a high level of abstraction, and in a context divorced from explicit dynamic analysis.     

Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)

Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting.     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

Valuing ecosystem goods and services: a new approach using a surrogate market and the combination of a multiple criteria analysis and a Delphi panel to assign weights to the attributes

A new approach to valuing ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is described which incorporates components of the economic theory of value, the theory of valuation (USappraisal), a multi-model multiple criteria analysis (MCA) of ecosystem attributes, and a Delphi panel of experts to assign weights to the attributes. The total value of ecosystem goods and services in the various tenure categories in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in Australia was found to be in the range AUD$188 to $211 million year⁻¹, or AUD$210 to 236 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ across tenures, as at 30 June 2002. Application of the weightings assigned by the Delphi panelists and assessment of the ecological integrity of the various tenure categories resulted in values being derived for individual ecosystem services in the World Heritage Area. Biodiversity and refugia were the two attributes ranked most highly at AUD$18.6 to $20.9 million year⁻¹ and AUD$16.6 to $18.2 million year⁻¹, respectively.     

Technological substitution forecasting with a model based on biological analogy

Although many models of technological substitution processes exist, only a few deal with multilevel technological substitution and still fewer may be easily applied to forecasting of real multilevel substitution processes. We propose a stochastic model of multilevel technological substitution and a forecasting method based on this model. In the author's opinion, the developed algorithm may be easily applied to forecasting various technological substitution processes. An example of the application of this algorithm to forecasting of world energy consumption is presented. The algorithm makes possible an investigation of the impact of future innovation on the system's behavior.     

Statistical tests of relative substitutabilities of near-monies over time

Chetty's direct utility approach was an innovative attempt to measure substitution relationships between money and near-monies. Moroney and Wilbratte, and more recently Boughton, have generalized the functional form used by Chetty to include income as an independent variable in a manner which subsumes Chetty's model as a special case. This paper modifies the. direct utility approach of these authors to alleviate estimation problems and provide a method of testing relative substitutabilities to obtain a ranking of assets. A three-equation model is estimated by Zellner's seemingly unrelated regressions procedure, with a linear constraint to eliminate identification problems. The Chi-square test developed by Zellner is used to choose a functional form and to compare relative substitutabilities. The stability of relationships over time is also tested.     

Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research

The Delphi technique was largely developed to avoid the problems of freely interacting groups such as dominant individuals and pressure to conform to the majority view. Our review of the social psychological literature reveals some obstacles to Delphi achieving its full potential relative to other cheaper and easier methods of aggregating judgment. We identify residual normative and informational pressures towards consensus that potentially reduce process gain that might otherwise be achieved. For instance, panelist confidence may act as a signal of status rather than be a valid cue to expertise, whereas consensus appears to have a strong influence on the final outcome that can reduce its accuracy when there are valid minority opinions. We argue that process gain in Delphi must occur through those further from the "truth" changing their opinion more than those closer to the truth, with the general direction of opinion change being towards the truth. For such virtuous opinion change to occur we suggest the need to both facilitate opinion change and provide good cues as to where the truth lies. Research on Judge Advisor Systems shows that people usually do not change their opinion as much as they should, giving too much weight to their own opinion and too little to the views of others—this bias can be reduced by increasing involvement and motivation. In addition, we propose that the best way to provide good cues as to the direction of the truth is to elicit rich reasoning from panelists about the judgment or choice in question, then use this as feedback. We suggest practical ways of focusing and deepening panelists’ consideration and evaluation of such reasoning—such that all proffered opinions are well-evaluated. Additionally, we propose a model of opinion change in Delphi for use as a paradigm for future process-orientated research.     

On Hegel,imperialism, and structural stagnation

The essentials of the economic theory of imperialism à la Hobson-Luxemburg are anticipated in two paragraphs of Hegel's Philosophy of Right. Marx did not pay attention to this aspect of Hegel's thought, perhaps because it implied a longer survival probability for capitalism than Marx cared to acknowledge. The second part of the paper shows the formal similarity between the economic theory of imperialism and the theory of structural stagnation that was proposed in Latin America in the 1960s. The blindspots and early demise of that theory have the same psychological root as Marx's neglect of Hegel's insights.     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

On optimal steady states of n-sector growth models when utility is discounted

This paper contains results on local and global stability of n-sector growth models when utility is discounted mostly for small rates of discount. It is well known that when future utility is not discounted one can prove precise results about optimal steady states (OSS's) under fairly general assumptions. In particular, existence, uniqueness, and turnpike properties have been established by several authors. The counter examples presented by Kurz, Sutherland, and Weitzman, however, show that when utility is discounted, additional assumptions are required to obtain turnpike results. In general, it would be interesting to know how the submanifolds of stability change as δ changes. One hopes that certain conditions on the utility function would be sufficient to “classify” the submanifolds of stability and instability. Such a question is apparently very difficult to answer, but we think that the results obtained here will help in this task.The proof that the turnpike theorem holds for discount factors near one is divided in two parts. First, we prove that optimal paths “visit” neighborhoods of the modified OSS's. Then, we prove that local stability holds for such neighborhoods.In order to show this fact, we must prove that the local “stable manifold” varies continuously with the discount factor. This roundabout method is necessary since our problem is similar to proving uniform continuity with respect to a parameter of solutions of a differential equation in a noncompact interval of time.Other problems analyzed here include uniqueness and continuity of OSS's. We also discuss the relation between the saddle-point property and the local stability of infinite horizon optimal growth paths.     

Shang inquiry as an alternative to Delphi: Some experimental findings

A new group judgment method known as Shang is presented as an alternative to Delphi. Shang is structured to avoid Delphi problems associated with convergence pressures and response commitment while incorporating Delphi advantages. The new method is evaluated through an experiment comparing it with a control method and two Delphi techniques, one using point estimates and one using distributional estimates. Findings indicate that Shang is generally superior to Delphi in producing accurate numerical estimates from the judgments of a group of experts.     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

Sensitivity of optimal programs with respect to changes in target stocks: The case of irreversible investment

Consider an aggregative model of economic growth with changing technology and tastes, in which investment is irreversible. It is shown that initial decisions in finite-horizon optimal programs are insensitive to changes in terminal stocks, provided the horizon is long enough. This generalizes Brock's result, which was proved assuming investment to be reversible. The irreversibility constraint does not allow one to follow Brock's method of proof, using the dual (Shadow Price) properties of optimal programs. An alternative method of proof is developed, using a primal approach, and exploiting dynamic programming arguments.     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

The delphi technique: an exposition and application

The article provides a n overview of the Delphi technique and its related adaptations, as well as practical hints on procedures gained from its use to forecast changes in the market analysis industry. The Lielphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future ofestab1ish:ed industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a nascent industry. A case is presented which suggests that companies i n nascent industries have a greater need for long-range planning than those at other stages of a n industry's development, and a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgmental forecasting techniques in new industries. The review of the Delphi process highlights some of the major considerations, s,uch as panel selection, questionnaire construction and administration, response analysis and number of rounds, as well as how Delphi can be modified. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to curry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.     

Strategy-proofness and Arrow's conditions: Existence and correspondence theorems for voting procedures and social welfare functions

Consider a committee which must select one alternative from a set of three or more alternatives. Committee members each cast a ballot which the voting procedure counts. The voting procedure is strategy-proof if it always induces every committee member to cast a ballot revealing his preference. I prove three theorems. First, every strategy-proof voting procedure is dictatorial. Second, this paper's strategy-proofness condition for voting procedures corresponds to Arrow's rationality, independence of irrelevant alternatives, non-negative response, and citizens' sovereignty conditions for social welfare functions. Third, Arrow's general possibility theorem is proven in a new manner.     

Selection processes in a Delphi study about key qualifications in Senior Secondary Vocational Education

The focus of this study is the Delphi method. First, a short history of the Delphi method is given. Then, different types of the Delphi method are described, and the validity and reliability of the Delphi method are discussed. Finally, this study reports on the selection processes and assessments faced when a policy Delphi was conducted into qualification issues in Senior Secondary Vocational Education in the Netherlands.