The attributes,behavior, and performance of U.S. mutual funds

This article examines the risk and return characteristics of U.S. mutual funds. We employ an equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and a principal-components-based statistical technique to identify performance benchmarks. We also consider the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative. We implement a procedure for overcoming the rotational indeterminacy of factor models. This procedure is a hybrid of statistical factor estimation and prespecification of factors. We estimate measures of timing ability for the CAPM and extend it to the APT. We find that this timing test is misspecified due to noninformation-based changes in mutual fund betas. We develop a modification of the timing measure that, under certain conditions, distinguishes true timing ability from noninformation-based beta changes.     

The earnings game. Everyone plays, nobody wins.

Quarterly earnings numbers dominate the decisions of executives, analysts, investors, and auditors. Yet for all the attention paid to these numbers, they're not much use in predicting a company's future performance and cash flows. Even economists are unanimous in their view that these numbers say next to nothing about a company's prospects beyond the next quarter. Nonetheless, meetings analysts' expectations that earnings will rise in a smooth, steady, unbroken line has become, at many corporations, a game whose imperatives override even the imperative to deliver the highest possible return to shareholders. The fetishistic attention paid to this almost meaningless indicator might be cause for amusement, except for one thing: the earnings game does real harm. It distorts corporate decision making. It reduces securities analysis and investing to a guessing contest. It compromises the integrity of corporate audits. Ultimately, it undermines the capital markets. As market participants increasingly come to view the quarterly number as a sort of collective fiction, offered and received in a spirit of mutual cynicism, they lose faith in the numbers affected by quarterly earnings--including stock prices themselves. And no market can survive long if its participants see no connection between prices and the intrinsic value of the goods on offer. In this article, HBR senior editor Harris Collingwood takes an in-depth look at these effects, examining the intricacies of the earnings game and why companies believe they have no choice but to play it. Until more corporate executives change their practices, he explains, the earning game will never lack for players.     

苹果公司资本历程

按照中国法律及会计制度以及目前的上市惯例,当年的苹果公司不可能在今天中国创业板上市。因为按照中国会计准则的口径,苹果公司还不满三个完整的＂会计年度＂,连报送公开发行申请文件的资格都没有!如今苹果公司的现金持有量却超过了美国财政部。真是富可敌国,而且还是大国     

The Interactions between the Investment, Financing, and Dividend Decisions of Major U.S. Firms

This paper uses 114 responses to a June 1988 mail questionnaire survey of the financial managers of the 1,000 largest U.S. firms to examine Modigliani and Miller's “separation principle”. The opinions of practicing financial managers were found to be consistent with Modigliani and Miller as well as with the work of other empirical researchers. Almost without exception, the direction of causality between investment and financing decisions was found to run from the former to the latter, and dividend decisions were found to be driven by profits and prior year's dividends rather than by the firm's investment and financing actions. Clearly, the beliefs of practicing financial managers seem to reflect acceptance of Modigliani and Miller's “separation principle.”     

The Consumption–Income Ratio,Entrepreneurial Risk,and the U.S. Stock Market

The owners of small noncorporate businesses face substantial and largely uninsurable entrepreneurial risk. They are also an important group of stock owners. This paper explores the role of entrepreneurial risk in explaining time variation in expected U.S. stock returns in the period 1952–2010. It proposes an entrepreneurial distress factor that is based on a cointegrating relationship between aggregate consumption and income from proprietary and nonproprietary wealth. This factor, referred to here as the cpy residual, signals when entrepreneurial income is low in relation to aggregate consumption and other forms of income in the economy. It is highly correlated with cross‐sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial and default risk, and it has considerable forecasting power for the expected equity premium. However, the correlation between cpy and the stock market started to decline at the beginning of the 1980s. The decline in this correlation can be associated with increased stock market participation and with the progress of U.S. state‐level bank deregulation. This pattern is consistent with the view that entrepreneurial risk became more easily diversifiable in the wake of U.S. state‐level bank deregulation.     

The U.S. Property and Liability Insurance Industry: Firm Growth,Size, and Age

The relationship between firm size, age, and growth is tested for the U.S. property and liability (P‐L) insurance industry, and the determinants of firm characteristics on firm growth are analyzed. Using Heckman's two‐stage methodology, this article examines the relationship between corporate growth and firm size. The relationship between firm growth and firm age is also investigated. Furthermore, to determine time‐varying effects, the analysis is conducted for the different subperiods. The results of this article strongly support Gibrat's Law in the U.S. P‐L insurance market for the testing periods. The results are consistent for longer time periods and for shorter subperiods. It also finds that young firms grow faster than old firms during the sample periods. Related to the determinants of firm characteristics on firm growth, insurers using less input cost tend to grow fast. Economies of scope are positively related to firm growth as well.     

美国经常账户失衡:表现、理论与政策——兼驳伯南克“世界储蓄过剩”论

本文考察了美国经常账户失衡的发展过程,指出了其对手方的国别与地区结构特点,随后总结了对该现象的有关研究和解释。文章简述了伯南克世界储蓄过剩论,指出了该观点论证逻辑中的错误,然后分析了其理论分析框架——储蓄缺口模型与新古典增长模型对美国经常账户失衡解释的不适用。