Black-white differentials in crime rates

Conclusion In this paper a choice-theoretic model of participation in crime is adopted to capture some of the conventional explanations for why Blacks have higher crime rates than whites. Naively, the controversial proposition that higher black crimes rates are illusory is eschewed. Instead, it is assumed for expository purposes that Blacks really are more criminal than whites. This research was supported by grants from the Hogg Foundation for Mental Health and the University Research Institute of the University of Texas. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the New York City meetings of the American Economic Association, 1977, and the European meetings of the Econometric Society, Geneva, 1978.     

Recent trends in intra-industry trade and their implications for future trade liberalization

Zusammenfassung Jüngste Entwicklungen im intra-industriellen Handel und ihre Bedeutung für eine künftige Handelsliberalisierung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird untersucht, ob sich die Muster des intra-industriellen Handels (IIH) aus den sechziger und siebziger Jahren in den achtziger Jahren fortgesetzt haben. Es wird gefragt, ob der historische Nachkriegstrend in Richtung auf einen verst?rkten IIH umgekehrt wurde und — falls das der Fall war — weshalb. In der Analyse werden Daten aus 16 OECD-L?ndern für die Perioden 1970–1980 und 1975–1985 verwendet. Die Entwicklung des IIH scheint besonders für die Handelsabkommen relevant zu sein, bei denen die Partner erwarten, da\ die haupts?chlichen Handelsanpassungen innerhalb der Firmen und Industriezweige stattfinden und weniger zwischen den Industriezweigen. Zwei kürzlich abgeschlossene bilaterale Abkommen — zwischen Neuseeland und Australien und zwischen Kanada und den Vereinigten Staaten — beleuchten diese Fragestellung.

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Résumé Les tendances récentes du commerce intra-industriel et leurs effets sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur en futur. — Cette étude examine si les caractéristiques du commerce intra-industriel dans les années soixante et soixante-dix sont les mêmes comme dans les années quatre-vingt. Il est demandé si la tendance historique après la dernière guerre mondiale vers un commerce intra-industriel plus fort s’est changée et, si oui, quelles sont les causes d’une telle évolution. L’analyse compend des données de 16 pays de l’OCDE pour les années 1970–1980 et 1975–1985. Les tendances du commerce intra-industriel semblent être particulièrement importantes pour les accords du commerce en futur si les partenaires attendent que les ajustements primaires ont lieu plus en firmes et en industries qu’entre des secteurs industriels. Deux accords bilatéraux donnent un exemple récent: c’est l’accord entre la Nouvelle Zélande et l’Australie et celui entre le Canada et les Etats Unis.

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Resumen Tendencias recientes en el comercio intrasectorial y sus implicaciones para una futura liberalización del comercio. — En este trabajo se investiga si el patrón de comercio intrasectorial (CIS) de la década del 60 y del 70 continué en los a?os 80. Se pregunta, si la tendencia histórica de la posguerra indicando un aumento del CIS se ha revertido, y, en caso de ser así, ?porqué? El análisis cubre datos para 16 países miembros de la OECD para dos periodos, 1970–1980 y 1975–1985. La tendencia del CIS parece ser particularmente relevante para futuros acuerdos comerciales en los cuales los participantes esperan que los ajustes primarios en el comercio tengan lugar dentro de las empresas y dentro de los sectores industriales, en vez de entre los sectores. Dos acuerdos bilaterales recientes, firmados entre Nueva Zelandia y Australia por un lado y entre Canadá y los EE.UU. por el otro, arrojan algo de luz sobre el tema.

     

华生：破解中国房价困局

燕京华侨大学校长华生认为，作为亚洲的后发国家，中日韩在人口密度和人均可耕地面积方面较相似。在人口转型加速时期，中日韩的人口密度分别为139人、221人、251人／每平方公里，中日韩的人均可耕种面积分别为1．37亩、1．05亩和1．2亩。     

众说纷纭话房价

屈宏斌：房价不会越调越高 针对有人担心房价会“越调越高”的问题，汇丰银行（中国）有限公司首席经济学家屈宏斌认为，楼市调控政策在逐步加码，相信今年会较过去几年有好的调控效果。     

Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences

The spatial spillovers of housing prices across regions are well documented by a large body of previous studies. This paper tries to investigate the dynamic (time-varying) evolution of spatial interactions and their underlying driving factors intensively. Using a recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, this paper examines the time-varying spatial spillovers of housing prices in 70 major and median cities of China from 2006 to 2019. We find that the GAS model can well capture the impact of time-varying critical events of Chinese real estate market on the whole. However, different regions display heterogeneous variation patterns over time. Further investigation shows that inter-regional labor mobility and trades are two major channels, accounting for 1.25% and 2.58% of the monthly standard deviations of spatial spillover effects from one city to another, respectively. We also characterize and distinguish between three time-varying patterns of spatial spillovers within different regions of China. Our results shed lights on the understanding of spatial spillovers across regional real estate markets across different city network structures within China.     

调控政策难降房价

2009年12月14日，国务院常务会议明确提出，遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的势头，政策一出，立刻引起了激烈的争论，高房价到底会不会得到遏制？我们在关注各方观点的同时，也引用了一些观点，供读者参考。     

Home ownership,housing price and social security expenditure

This paper analyzes the substitution and trade-off effects of homeownership and housing price on social security expenditure. We construct a theoretical model to investigate the optimal choice for individual and government in social security system with estate transaction. The model predicts that the government is more likely to decrease (increase) social security spending under a higher home rate when house price rises (falls). We test 35 metropolises panel data which spans the year of 1998–2012 under a two-way fixed effects framework. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical prediction. The estimation results show that at the current home rate 82%, 1% increase in housing price will lead to 1.15 Yuan reduction in social security spending per capita.     

中国楼市危机的根本出路:建立购买者对房价的公信度

购房者对现实房价的不信任是楼市在各级政府相继出台政策后依然低迷的根本原因。要解决楼市低迷问题,需建立购房者对房价的公信度,科学核定楼房综合建安成本及利润值。这也是彻底解决政府在房屋开发中的职能定位问题和控制房地产开发过程中各种腐败行为的根本途径。     

Recent housing affordability in urban China: A comprehensive overview

In this study, we provide a comprehensive overview of housing affordability in China from both the macro and micro perspectives. We extend the scope of housing affordability analysis to all Chinese cities based on a unique panel dataset in 275 Chinese prefecture cities from 2014 to 2018. We also make a novel methodological contribution to the literature by employing micro-level data from an anonymous major Chinese city in 2015. Our results suggest that the overall level of housing affordability in Chinese cities remained relatively stable or even improved during the sample period. However, we identify a few “superstar cities,” such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xiamen, which are associated with a serious housing affordability problem. This problem arises from both a shortage of supply in the space market and a potential mispricing in the asset market, and may have a spillover effect on surrounding cities due to home purchase restrictions in the superstar cities. Within these cities, the housing affordability problem leads to longer commuting time due to the separation of home and workplace, and lower housing space consumption for the residents.     

我国住房抵押贷款证券定价研究

在我国房地产业的迅猛发展下,住房抵押贷款规模不断扩大,住房抵押贷款证券化也随着“建元2005-1”的上市而破局,住房抵押贷款证券的定价问题研究也成为我国资本市场证券化领域的热点。本文在总结了国外定价方法和国内相关研究的基础上,从分析影响我国住房抵押贷款证券价格的主要因素入手,阐述了借款人可支配收入和房款这两个主要因素决定的借款人提前还款的模型,并根据我国住房抵押贷款证券的特点建立了住房抵押贷款转付证券的静态利差定价框架。采用此定价框架,本文对“建元2005-1”资产池进行了定价分析,结果显示,相对于建元发行说明书里假设的CPR,在基于收入和房款的提前还款模型下,资产池的提前还款风险更大,对利率变动更加敏感,要求的收益率也更高。     

Marginalising women in politics: Recent trends in KwaZulu-Natal

This paper examines trends in the political marginalisation of women in KwaZulu-Natal between 1994 and 2004. South Africa's political representation of women has been increasing significantly since 1994. KwaZulu-Natal has just over 25% female representation in provincial governance, an enviable percentage compared to world figures. This paper examines the quality of that representation to discover how effectively this 25% has addressed the concerns of the region's women, especially rural African women, and what sociocultural notions have hampered their political participation and thus escalated their socioeconomic marginalisation. Looking at primary and secondary data from interviews with women in rural KwaZulu-Natal and in public decision-making structures, and with female and male political science students at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, the paper finds that politics is still masculinised, and poverty by implication remains feminised.     

大城市高住宅价格何以形成

一、城市化进程对住房产生了巨大的市场需求当前,日本、美国的城市化比例都在70%以上,而中国的城市化水平仅为40%,城镇人口为5.1亿。按政府的计划,2020年我国城市化水平将达55%,全国人口增至14亿,城镇人口净增2.6亿,达到7.7亿。2003年我国城镇人均住宅建筑面积据统计为23.67m2,     

Chinese policies toward the two Koreas: Recent trends and prospects

Abstract

This paper examines the attempts by Malaysia to foster production by national automotive producers in a global industry dominated by a small number of major multinationals. Despite the use of a wide range of industrial policies, both standard import-substituting ones and more targeted policies, the main national producer, Proton, has been unable successfully to enter the automotive global value chain. We argue that Malaysia is probably faced with a choice of accepting foreign majority ownership, as with its second national producer, Perodua, or reconciling itself to Proton lagging in both technology and marketing.     

Sustainable natural resource use in rural China: Recent trends and policies

In this paper we provide an overview of recent trends in the availability and quality of land and water resources in rural China, and examine the common presumption that rural resources are rapidly degrading in China. Data based on consistent definitions and measurement methods that have recently become available are used to that end. In addition, we analyse the impact of new policy initiatives to introduce market-based instruments and new institutions to address land degradation and water scarcity problems.We find that the decline in cultivated area has accelerated in the beginning of the new century. Ecological recovery programs, not urbanization and industrialization, are the major factors causing this decline. Ecological recovery programs are also a major force behind the increase in forest land area and the reduction of water erosion. Modest successes can be observed in the protection of wetlands and (until the mid-1980s) for the average quality of cultivated land. On the other hand, degradation of natural grassland and wind erosion have become much more severe in recent decades.In northern China, particularly in the 3-H (Hai and Luan, Huai and Huang) river basins, the availability of water has tightened. Groundwater tables have fallen considerably in the Hai river basin, because farmers increasingly rely on groundwater for irrigation. Evidence on other parts of northern China is mixed. Pollution of surface water is getting worse since the beginning of the 1990s in two major lakes in southern China and until recently in the rivers in northern China. Water quality problems in the larger rivers in southern China are less severe and getting less. These problems are to a large extent caused by agriculture-based non-point source pollution, especially in the major lakes and reservoirs.The sloping land conversion program, water pricing, and the establishment of water user associations and payments for environmental service projects are used as cases to examine the introduction of market-based instruments and new institutions. We argue that less government interference in the implementation of these instruments and institutions is likely to enhance ecological as well the economic benefits. Moreover, supportive measures to improve the functioning of land and labor markets are usually needed to ensure the sustainability of the impact of interventions.     

Proposed changes to the value added tax: implications for tax revenue and price distortions

This paper examines changes to the value added tax (VAT) system proposed recently by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance-in particular that the exemptions for certain sectors be ended. Using the input-output relationships in the economy as a basis, it analyses the implications of these changes for tax revenue and for price distortions. It also considers other feasible changes to the VAT exemptions that could be advantageous. The paper concludes that the estimated revenue impacts of the proposed changes are small relative to the apparent scope for revenue increases from improved administration of the system as it stands.     

Recent changes in the housing status of blacks in los angeles

In the aftermath of reductions in federal housing assistance programs during the 1980s, many cities are experiencing severe shortages of affordable housing. It is particularly difficult for low income and minority households to find and maintain adequate, low-cost housing. This article describes how Los Angeles has responded to this need through implementation of a particular housing policy and financing strategy. It specifically examines what impacts this program has had in producing affordable housing in the city’s low-income, minority neighborhoods. Recommendations for further public action on housing needs in Los Angeles are also offered.