Prospects for the Greek Economy in the Post‐enlargement Era

This paper examines the consequences for Greece of the EU enlargement eastwards. The analysis is based on an evaluation of the Greek economy competitiveness relative to the economies of the acceding and candidate countries during the last decade. Using data disaggregated up to the third digit, the magnitude of Greek inter‐ and intra‐industry trade with the above countries is determined and contrasted to the corresponding trade with the EU. Other issues examined are the effects from factor movements such as the FDI flows and migration, and the macroeconomic effects from the reallocation of EU funds. Enlargement is expected to exert positive trade and FDI effects on the Greek economy, a negative effect on future economic growth as a result of budgetary reductions and an uncertain effect on labour markets from migration. A non‐exploited trade potential of Greece with the Balkan countries creates further opportunities for regional development.     

Does foreign direct investment promote institutional development in Africa?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Africa have increased since the turn of the millennium, mainly due to FDI growth into African countries by multinational enterprises (MNEs) from developing economies. While African governments view this growth as a positive development for the continent, many governments in the West have raised concerns regarding the institutional impact of investments from developing economies. This paper examines the impact of FDI flows on institutional quality in African countries by distinguishing investments from developed versus developing economies. Previous empirical studies have found a significant relationship between FDI flows and institutional quality in African countries but regard the relationship as MNEs rewarding African countries for adopting institutional reforms. However, little attention has been paid to the reverse causality, i.e. that FDI can cause an institutional change in African countries. Using bilateral greenfield FDI flows between 56 countries during 2003?2015, we find no significant FDI effect from developed and developing economies on institutional quality in host countries. However, aggregate FDI flows from developed and developing economies have a significant positive effect on host country institutional quality but differ concerning the impact's timing. In contrast, we find no significant effect of FDI flows from China on host country institutional quality. Our results are robust to alternative measures of institutional quality.     

Effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield FDI

Using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003–15, this paper assesses the effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) on greenfield FDI flows to the aid‐recipient countries. Particularly, this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield FDI flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers: the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries. Applying the system GMM estimator, this paper finds that AfT not only increases the dollar value of FDI flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries. In addition, this paper finds that AfT has a greater effect for greenfield FDI from donor (developed) countries than from non‐donor (developing) countries. Among the three components of AfT, aid for trade‐related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield FDI, irrespective of source‐country groups, yet their effects are larger for developed source countries. In contrast, aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield FDI flows from non‐donor countries, while it promotes greenfield FDI from donor countries. We offer some explanations for this finding.     

Foreign direct investment,black economic empowerment and labour productivity in South Africa

The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestically owned firms in developing countries has been widely debated in the literature. It has been argued that FDI provides access to advanced technologies and other intangible assets, which may spill over to the host country and allow domestic firms to improve their performance. While there is a substantial literature on this issue, for obvious reasons, little is known about the effect of FDI on domestic firms in the African context. Noting this gap, this paper uses two-period (2003 and 2007) firm level panel data from South Africa to examine the impact of FDI on the labour productivity of domestic firms. A key policy change during this time period was the passage of the broad-based black economic empowerment act (BB-BEE) and we also examine the effect of the interaction between foreign firm ownership and BEE on labour productivity. Regardless of the empirical specification, we find no spillover effects and no evidence that a greater degree of BEE compliance by foreign firms influences labour productivity.     

Foreign direct investment and wages: a cross-country analysis

While globalization has led to overall economic growth in a number of countries, questions abound on its distributional effects, especially on rising wage inequality across nations. The main objective of this study is to investigate empirically the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on wages in a cross-country setting. We investigate the general equilibrium propositions that capital inflows (outflows) increase (lower) wages in host (home) countries due to the change in relative factor endowments. We also explore whether capital inflows have differential impacts on skilled and unskilled wages in developing economies. Time-series data on 26 countries, 15 developed and 11 developing, are used to fit the labour share equation derived from a translog GNP function with net FDI stock as one of its arguments. Results confirm that capital movement brings about a cross-country convergence of wages. However, there is some evidence that inward FDI flows increase the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in developing countries.     

国际直接投资的就业结构效应研究——基于东道国视角

国际直接投资引起了世界各国经济和社会的变革,其中一个重要的方面就是对各国国内就业的影响和冲击。本文以东道国为视角,通过理论模型和计量分析两种方法,重点研究FDI对东道国国内就业结构的影响。研究表明,FDI对东道国就业结构具有深刻影响,这种影响取决于各部门所占的劳动比例、各部门中劳动生产率对劳动的弹性以及FDI在各部门中所占的比例;FDI对中国就业结构优化有着积极的促进作用。     

A global analysis of factors impacting the intensive and extensive margins of bilateral foreign direct investment

This study investigates determinants of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) on both margins, the extensive margin (whether to invest) and the intensive margin (how much to invest), based on the recent structural gravity model for FDI developed by Anderson et al. (Trade and investment in the global economy. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2017). I examine a global data set comprised of 110 countries over 9 years, 2004–12. Apart from conventional gravity variables, the source country's technology capital shows a significant and positive impact on both FDI margins. Bilateral investment treaties play a significant role only in determining the extensive margin. Results on FDI stocks and FDI flows can lead to different conclusions; thus, research should consult both types of data series to find which variables have robust effects. Furthermore, breaking down the sample by country development levels reveals that FDI from less‐developed countries (LDCs) is not affected by many common variables, and thus, there is a need to develop more theories and empirical work to investigate the FDI from LDCs in particular.     

Local conditions and economic growth from South–South FDI

This paper examines growth in Southern economies arising from FDI from both Southern and Northern economies. We explore local conditions that are necessary for growth. A system GMM estimator is used to distinguish between South–South and North–South FDI flows. The highly skilled labour and strong property rights protection required to achieve growth from Northern FDI are not necessary local conditions for achieving growth from Southern FDI. It is strong law and order that emerges as a critical necessary condition associated with positive growth following Southern FDI. The results indicate a distinctive impact of local conditions in activating growth from FDI.     

Governance and Globalisation

Unlike the large literature on ‘democracy and trade’, there is a much smaller literature on the effect of the level of democracy in a nation on the level of its foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. These few studies reveal mixed empirical results, and surprisingly only one study has examined bilateral FDI flows. Moreover, few of these studies use multiple governance indicators separating the ‘pluralism’ effect of democratic institutions from the ‘good governance’ effect, there are no studies on democratic institutions’ various effects on the level of FDI relative to trade, and there are no studies of democratic institutions’ various effects on the selection of countries into FDI. We focus on three contributions. First, we examine the simultaneous effects of the World Bank's (six) Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs) – which allow separating the effects of pluralism from those of five other good governance measures – on bilateral trade, FDI and FDI relative to trade using state‐of‐the‐art gravity specifications. Second, we find strong evidence that – after accounting for host governments’ effectiveness in various roles of good governance – a higher level of pluralism as measured by the WGIs’ Voice and Accountability Index reduces trade levels, likely by increasing the ‘voice’ of more protectionist less‐skilled workers, but not FDI levels. Moreover, we find qualitatively different effects of other WGIs – such as political stability – on trade versus FDI flows. Third, we account for firm heterogeneity alongside a large number of zeros in bilateral FDI flows using recent advances in gravity modelling. We distinguish between the (country) intensive and extensive margins and show that pluralism affects FDI inflows negatively at the intensive margin, but positively at the extensive margin.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? The knowledge‐capital model revisited

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract foreign direct investment (FDI), this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilising an extended version of the knowledge‐capital model. With a special focus on the effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) or an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between a pair of market and non‐market countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (i) although FTA/EPA generally tends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labour decreases as the size of the country grows; (ii) a developing country may suffer severe welfare losses through FTA/EPA if the availability of skilled labour is extremely limited; and (iii) a developing country can enhance welfare gains from a FTA, and it is even possible to recover the welfare effects from negative to positive, by making the arrangement an EPA.     

Religion and foreign direct investment

This study examines the effect of religion on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a large sample of directional FDI flows and religious data between 1985 and 2019, we calculate the religious distance between home and host countries and find that FDI flows are smaller for country pairs with greater religious distance. This finding remains intact after a host of variables affecting FDI are controlled. Moreover, the negative effect of religious differences is less pronounced if the host country has higher religious diversity or both countries have a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) in force. Finally, we construct a country-level measure for religiosity and find an asymmetric effect of religiosity on FDI flows. Overall, our study suggests that both religious differences and the level of religiosity play important roles in explaining international FDI flows. (JEL F21, F41, Z12)     

Is FDI Integrating the World Economy?

FDI's spectacular growth, in diverse forms, during the past two decades represented an important force generating greater economic integration. FDI increased substantially in relation to global productive capacity, cross border mergers and acquisitions component of FDI put domestic corporate laggards on notice, and the spread of FDI to non‐tradable service sectors generated the possibility that these traditionally low productivity sectors would be brought closer to the standards of international efficiency. Yet, FDI did not perform an integrating role in a more fundamental sense. There is little evidence that FDI served to speed up income convergence across countries. This was the case for two reasons. First, FDI flows remained highly concentrated. Second, the benefits from FDI appear to have accrued principally where conditions were already conducive to investment and growth. Hence, though cross‐country disciplines through bilateral, regional and multilateral efforts are important in reducing the distortions that lead to misallocation of capital, domestic efforts to raise absorptive capacity will ultimately be critical. Efforts to increase labour mobility, as foreseen, for example, under GATS, could have a significant effect in raising the benefits from FDI as the more mobile labour serves to bridge the cultural, institutional and contractual differences across nations.     

Links between foreign direct investment and human capital formation: Evidence from the manufacturing sector in India

This paper is related to the literature on the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the labour market of host countries. Labour market literature has focused on the demand side of FDI; that is, increasing wage inequality by demanding more skilled workers or just increasing the overall average wages. On the supply side, FDI can enrich the skilled labour force of the host country by the provision of on-the-job training or learning or through indirect technological spillover effects. This paper takes into account both these effects and tests for human capital formation effect of FDI in India for core manufacturing sector firms for the period 2001–2015 using the Prowess database of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. It also takes into account the endogeneity of decision-making on the part of foreign firms in locating FDI. Different dynamic panel data methods are used with static and dynamic generalized method of moments techniques. This study does not find any positive supply-side human capital formation effects of FDI but finds a positive demand-side effect of FDI of raising wage inequality and average wages. The results remain robust while taking into account heterogeneities at region, industry, size, and age of the firms.     

North‐South foreign direct investment and bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BIT s) have become increasingly popular as a means of encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI ) from developed to developing countries. We adopt a difference‐in‐difference analysis to deal with the problem of self‐selection when estimating the effects of BIT s on FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of lesser developed countries. Our results indicate that forming a BIT with a developed country significantly increases FDI inflows to developing countries. We further find that the development of new FDI flows and the reinvigoration of deteriorating FDI relationships accounts for the majority of the increase in FDI flows due to BIT formation.     

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North‐North, North‐South and South‐North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North‐North and North‐South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home‐biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.     

Global Foreign Direct Investment: A network perspective

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) research has usually focused on inward and outward levels of assets flows and stocks, yet very few studies have examined the Global FDI Network. We study the economic performance of countries in terms of their associations with certain FDI partners employing social network analysis. This new approach shifts the focus away from the study of certain country features and their influence on FDI stock levels. Our study of FDI stocks from 229 economies sheds light on the interactions of the global FDI network within its singular context of country-level determinants, its after-effects, internal patterns, and relationship with the network of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). Our conclusion is that country features such as size, openness, skill levels, and institutional stability not only set the pace of FDI, but that they also influence both the network structure and the power positions of each node. We investigate whether that structure responds to homophilic relations between countries or to core–periphery patterns with only a few core economies and we question the strategy of signing BITs to form FDI relations. Finally, we inquire into strategic connections with powerful partners, to ascertain whether they provide beneficial settings for country growth and trade performance.     

Macro Determinants of FDI Inflows to Japan: An Analysis of Source Country Characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis‐specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market‐seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan.     

The impact of bilateral tax treaties: A multi-country analysis of FDI inflows into India

This paper models the role of tax treaties in promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) with the help of panel data for 14 countries for the period 1993–2011. A fixed effects (least squares dummy variable) model is developed that captures macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income (PCI) in ratio form of home to host country. It also includes bilateral tax treaties as a determinant of FDI inflow. The results show that GDP is a major determinant that is demand driven and per capita income is a major determinant that is supply driven. FDI openness of the home countries and population are also significant determinants. The introduction of the treaty had a positive impact on FDI inflows into India. We get largely significant and positive results for the ‘age of the treaty effect’, especially, in the case of Germany, Switzerland and Japan. The main contribution of the paper is to show that both presence and ‘age of treaty’ are important determinants of FDI flows to India. Further, fundamentals like GDP and PCI are major variables that influence FDI inflows.