US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.     

The European Union–West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement: Small impact and new questions

Despite recent modifications, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West African (WA) countries is still being criticized for its potential detrimental effects on WA countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the EPA on these countries. A dynamic multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium trade model with modeling of the dual–dual economy and with a consistent tariff aggregator is used to simulate a series of new scenarios that include updated information on the agreement. We also go beyond estimating macro-level economic effects to analyze the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that the implementation of the EPA between the EU and WA countries would have marginal but positive impacts on Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire and negative impacts on Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. The impact on poverty indicators in Ghana and Nigeria would be marginal. From the perspective of WA countries, this study supports the view that recent EU concessions are not sufficient and that domestic fiscal reforms are needed in WA countries themselves.     

An empirical comparison of methods for measuring consumers’ willingness to pay

A valid procedure for measuring consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) is crucial in designing optimal pricing policies or for estimating demand for new products. Understanding potential sources of differences in WTP estimates that emerge from value elicitation studies constitutes an important step in research on how managers should estimate consumers’ WTP. This research presents an empirical analysis of two potential sources of differences and discusses possible means of mitigating them. We find substantial and significant differences between the WTP reported by subjects when payment of the stated price is real or hypothetical. Notwithstanding the dichotomy between real and hypothetical WTP, we find significant differences among the WTP estimates of a broad range of value elicitation methods.     

General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs

Transportation costs are an important topic in international trade, but seldom have researchers paid attention to general equilibrium trade modelling with transportation costs and explored their relevant effects. This paper uses numerical general equilibrium trade model structures to simulate the impacts of transportation costs on welfare and trade for a Canada–US country pair case. We compare two groups of model structures: Armington assumption models and homogeneous goods models. Within these two groups of models, we also compare balanced trade structures to trade imbalance structures and production function transportation costs to iceberg transportation costs. Armington goods models generate more absolute welfare gains from transportation cost elimination than homogeneous goods models. Welfare gains under balanced trade structures are larger in production function transportation cost scenarios than in iceberg transportation cost scenarios, but under trade imbalance structures, welfare gains are greater under iceberg transportation cost scenarios. Canada's welfare gains in the iceberg transportation cost scenario are significantly larger than gains in the production function transportation cost scenario. On trade effects, homogeneous goods models generate more export and import gains, balanced trade structures have more trade variations, and iceberg transportation costs generate more trade effects.     

Does Nutrition Information Contribute to Grocery Shoppers’ Willingness to Pay?

An experimental auction and the eye-tracking technology are used to detect the relationship between consumers’ understanding of the nutrition information and their willingness to pay for food items. Additional attention is given to health-conscious individuals. Salad mix and apple juice are selected for the experiment. A Tobit model is used for the analysis. The results show that nutrition information has some effect on consumers’ purchasing decision. Shoppers are willing to pay less for fat and mineral information, but more for ingredient, protein, sodium, and carbohydrate information of salad mix. As for apple juice, shoppers care only for energy and other nutrient information, as well as the health claim “vitamin C naturally high.” Further, health-conscious individuals are more responsive to the nutrition claims, such as “high in fiber” (salad mix) and “vitamin C naturally high” (orange juice). A possible limitation of the conclusion exists due to the small sample size.     

苏北地区农业完全成本水价农户承受力调查——基于水源地生态补偿的视角

南水北调东线一期工程江苏段的主要目标是向苏北供水,缓解该地区的农业用水短缺问题.但现行农业水价未考虑水源区的机会成本损失,不利于调动水源区环境保护积极性.论文设计单边界CVM引导技术,估算了苏北农户以提高农业水价的方式对水源区生态补偿的支付意愿.研究发现,苏北农户生态补偿支付意愿为7.63元/亩,但在不同作物种植结构和...     

中澳铁矿砂价格谈判对中国各产业的影响

文章采用可计算一般均衡模型评估了铁矿砂价格变化对中国各产业的影响。模拟结果显示,铁矿砂进口价格的大幅度上升,给中国各产业带来了一定的负面影响,其中受影响较大的产业主要是铁矿业、钢铁业、机械设备业、煤、汽车、建筑、纺织服装业以及羊毛等。借中澳FTA谈判之际,若中澳可以达成较为有利的铁矿砂基准价格,将会使得中国由于铁矿砂国际价格普遍上涨所承受的负面影响程度缩小,且从澳大利亚进口铁矿砂的比重将有较大幅度提高。     

农户信息服务支付意愿及其影响因素分析

基于对江苏、江西、内蒙、云南、安徽五省(区)756户农户的信息服务调查,运用支付意愿方法,得到上述地区农户的信息服务支付意愿,并通过Logistic回归模型对农户信息服务支付意愿的影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明,影响农户信息服务支付意愿的因素除了农户家庭和生产等一些常见的特征变量外,还有农户所在社区信息服务可及性等多方面的因素。基于这些实证研究结果,政府应增加投入,完善农村公共服务基础设施建设等。     

The country-of-origin lie: impact of foreign branding on customers’ willingness to buy and willingness to pay when the product’s actual origin is disclosed

If you think about the last television commercial for an Italian pasta brand you have seen, are you sure it is really Italian? In many cases, especially in the food sector, neither the company nor the product originate from the advertised country, meaning that the company is pursuing a foreign branding strategy and is trying to benefit from positive stereotypes customers have about the specific foreign country. By collecting both quantitative and qualitative data through a point-of-sale intercept survey, this article assesses the impact of alleged origins on customers’ willingness to buy (WTB) and willingness to pay (WTP) if the actual origin is disclosed. The sample consisted of 200 German customers who were asked to answer questions related to one of two hedonic products they had just bought. It is empirically shown that foreign branding has a positive impact on the brand’s performance. However, as soon as customers find out that they were misled with regard to the origin of the product, both their WTB and their WTP decrease. This study contributes to the knowledge on the role of products’ origins on customers’ WTB and WTP. In contrast to the vast majority of the studies in this field, the communicated origin of the product is based on a foreign branding strategy and not on the product’s actual origin. Consequently, it was possible to manipulate within-subject variables by disclosing the actual origin of the product. The results of our study suggest that foreign branding may be a successful strategy for companies to increase their customers’ WTB and WTP. At the same time, our results raise concerns about the suitability of foreign branding as a long-term marketing strategy, unless a company can successfully maintain its foreign image. Future research opportunities include the choice of consumers with a different cultural background, of other hedonic products or of utilitarian products.     

Canadian Consumer Willingness to Pay for Omega-3 Meat

This study analyzes Canadian consumer willingness to pay for omega-3 enhanced beef, pork, and chicken. Using a nationwide survey conducted by ACNielsen in 2006 and choice modeling framework, results indicate that smaller household, households with high incomes, and households that have previously purchased an omega-3 product are willing to pay a premium for omega-3 beef, pork and chicken. The results also suggest that consumers that have previously purchased an omega-3 product are willing to pay a higher premium for the respective omega-3 meats compared to households that have never purchased an omega-3 product. Also, premiums are highest for omega-3 beef, followed by omega-3 pork, and last, omega-3 chicken.     

Economic Effects of Regional Tax Incentives: A General Equilibrium Approach

SUMMARY

Regional governments often adopt tax incentive programs to attract private investments to their jurisdictions. This behavior is no different in Brazil, where such incentive policies have been growing in the last few years due to a combination of factors. This paper uses a general equilibrium approach to evaluate the effects of a regional tax incentive program for attracting investments. The analysis focuses mainly on the financing of new private investments through tax revenue relief and public investment expenditures by regional and federal governments. The interregional general equilibrium model used to run the simulations captures the effects of regional interdependence and of vertical relationships between the governments. The results show that the effects on the employment and household welfare of consumers have been positive for the region implementing such an incentive policy, namely the State of Rio Grande do Sul. However, the effect on real GDP may not follow the same course, which could occur mainly because of the specialized pattern of production in the State.

RESUMEN. Los gobiernos regionales adoptan programas de incentivo fiscal con el propósito de atraer inversiones a sus jurisdicciones. Este comportamiento no cambia en Brasil, donde dichas políticas de incentivo han crecido en los últimos años debido a un conjunto de factores. Este estudio se basa en el enfoque del equilibrio general, para evaluar los efectos de un programa de incentivo fiscal implementado para atraer inversiones. El modelo del equilibrio general interregional usado para realizar simulacros capta los efectos de la interdependencia regional, y de una relación vertical entre los gobiernos. Los resultados muestran que los efectos sobre el empleo y el bienestar doméstico de los consumidores son positivos para la región que implementa este tipo de política de incentivos como ocurre, por ejemplo en el estado de Río Grande do Sul. Sin embargo, el efecto sobre el PIB no sigue el mismo camino, lo que podría ser resultado, principalmente, del patrón de producción especializado del Estado.

RESUMO. Os governos regionais adotam com freqüência programas de incentivo fiscal a fim de atrair investimentos privados para suas jurisdições. Este comportamento não é diferente no Brasil, onde tais políticas de incentivo têm crescido nos últimos anos devido a uma combinação de fatores. Este estudo usa uma abordagem do equilíbrio geral para avaliar os efeitos de um programa regional de incentivos fiscais para atrair investimentos. A análise enfoca principalmente o financiamento de investimentos privados novos através da redução da arrecadação fiscal e do investimento público pelos governos regionais e federal. O modelo do equilíbrio geral inter-regional usado nas simulações capta os efeitos da interdependência regional e de relacionamentos verticais entre os governos. Os resultados mostram que os efeitos sobre o emprego e o bem-estar doméstico dos consumidores são positivos para a região que implementa tal política de incentivo, a saber, o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Entretanto, o efeito sobre o PIB real pode não seguir o mesmo caminho, e isto ocorreria sobretudo devido ao padrão de produção especializado no estado.