Trade law and trade flows

This paper develops and estimates a model to study the effect of improving the quality of commercial trade law on trade flows. We focus on improvements aimed to privately resolve disputes among trading partners: international commercial arbitration and conciliation. The main novelty of the model is to explicit the balance between the contractual quality of importer and exporter (contractual distance) in an environment with informational frictions (contractual noise). Using a structural gravity estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects, the main contribution of the empirical exercise is to confirm previous results and unravel new traits that align with our theoretical results. Arbitration has a moderate and positive effect on exports that increases (decreases) with the contractual quality of the exporter (importer) and the remoteness of markets. The effects of conciliation are similarly positive, but only for similar trading partners with high levels of income. Results also suggest both domestic trade law reform and international treaties have a positive effect on trade, with a stronger effect of the latter.     

从中美贸易摩擦看贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击及应对

贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击体现在对中国企业对外贸易量、产品价格和利润、创新和产品质量以及企业效率和产品附加值等方面的影响。中美贸易摩擦发生以来,虽然双方贸易额还没有出现明显下降,但加征高额关税抬高了中国企业进入美国市场的门槛,使中国企业获得先进技术的难度增加,并面临着市场转换问题,带来的人民币汇率下跌也影响着中国企业进出口。应通过深化供给侧结构性改革推动经济高质量发展、深化创新驱动战略提高企业产品附加值、加快推动“一带一路”倡议构建中国主导的生产链、继续扩大对外开放加速融入经济全球化等措施,有效应对贸易不确定性带来的影响。     

贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击及应对策略研究--基于中美贸易摩擦的视角

基于中美贸易摩擦的新动向,围绕当前中国企业应该如何应对中美贸易摩擦带来的风险进行研究。回顾中美贸易摩擦的历史问题,聚焦中美贸易摩擦的新动向,分析中国企业受中美贸易摩擦总体影响情况。研究发现,中美贸易摩擦背景下贸易不确定性带来的冲击有关税增加、企业经营成本激增、配套制造业产业链受到牵连以及中美产业集群发展失衡等。在此基础上,从企业、政府以及银行三方的角度,强调"政企银"打好组合拳,多向发力,共同协助中国企业顺利应对风险,帮助企业将中美贸易摩擦冲击带来的损失降至最低。     

Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan

This research investigates the exchange-rate risk sensitivity of Malaysian bilateral trade flows with its important trading partner, Japan. To this end, bounds testing approach to co-integration is applied using industry level data over the monthly period 2000–2013. Findings suggest that above the one-third of the total co-integrated export (43.86%) and import (34.54%), industries experiences the ringgit/yen variability effect in the short run. However, this effect sustains in relatively less number of export (14.03%) and import (32.73%) industries in the long run. It is interesting to note that exchange-rate risk boosts trade flows in the majority of these affected industries.     

Bilateral intra-industry trade flows and intellectual property rights protections: further evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper investigates the relationship between the United Kingdom's (hereafter referred as UK) bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) and foreign intellectual property rights (IPRs) protections. The empirical investigation is based on pooled UK data and benefits from the theoretical distinction between horizontal and vertical IIT. It also estimates a gravity equation for international trade using both fixed and random effects models. We then extend the analysis by employing the GMM system for dynamic panel models. The principal findings suggest that the UK's IIT is stimulated when the level of a trading partner's IPRs and its imitative ability are considered jointly. However, when IPRs and imitation abilities are considered separately, their disparate effects are not an important factor in determining UK IIT flows.     

Inefficient trade patterns: Excessive trade, cross-hauling and dumping

I study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner. In this example, a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand, there may be too much trade, a country may import and export the same good in the same period (cross-hauling) and dumping may occur. The timing of delivery is important. When delivery occurs before trade (delivery to stocks), trade improves welfare, there is dumping but no cross-hauling. When delivery occurs after trade (delivery to order), trade may reduce welfare and cross-hauling may occur.     

国际贸易环境下我国对外贸易政策的发展方向

近十几年来,全球贸易量取得了惊人的跨越式增长,而自由贸易与环境的关系问题也日趋尖锐。一方面,许多发达国家利用不对等的贸易和投资手段从发展中国家攫取大量战略性资源,却造成这些国家境内生态环境的严重失调;另一方面,一味地追求贸易扩张、资金积累和工业化又实际加剧了全球环境的恶化。环境效应对贸易的挤压性制约日益上升为国际贸易发展的焦点。在此背景下,引入环境变量,促进贸易策略的可持续性便成为实现我国对外贸易科学发展的必然之路。     

Asymmetric effects of demand uncertainty on intrafirm trade in durable and non‐durable industries

This paper unveils a new empirical regularity regarding the asymmetric patterns of international sourcing modes in the durable and non‐durable industries under uncertainty, and explains the asymmetry based on the traditional lens of the transaction cost economics. Under demand uncertainty, firms face trade‐offs between outsourcing and vertical integration: while outsourcing requires less initial investment and allows easier market entry and exit, vertical integration offers better management and communication systems. In the durable industries, consistent with the transaction cost economics, the relationship between vertical integration and uncertainty is positive. In the nondurable industries, however, such relationship is weaker because inelastic demand and shorter gaps between production and sales mitigate the effect of uncertainty. I show the asymmetric effects of uncertainty based on a simple general equilibrium model and provide consistent empirical evidence using US intrafirm trade and microeconomic uncertainty data.     

Varieties of regional integration,international trade networks and risk

This paper explores the relationship between regional integration models and trade network structures. The paper further investigates the implications of these trade relationship configurations on risk. The exploratory study models the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as networks: countries in each region are nodes connected by lines representing commodity trade flows. The study compares the evolution of the two regional networks over a 25‐year period (1990–2014). The results confirm that different regional integration models lead to differently structured economic relationships. The findings show that loosely coupled networks are vulnerable to the failure of a few connected nodes (concentrated vulnerability), but that tightly coupled regional networks are vulnerable to the failure of any of its nodes (random vulnerability). These unique differences in vulnerability have critical implications for managing economic risk.     

我国对外贸易发展的挑战和对策研究

改革开放以来,我国对外贸易发展迅速,已经成长为全球第一大货物贸易国。然而,我国对外贸易也面临着人口红利快速衰减、经济增长下降明显、贸易竞争力提升比较慢、对外贸易高端人才支撑不足等国内因素的挑战,加之国际贸易新规则频出、贸易保护主义抬头、全球经济增长失速、WTO改革陷入停滞等国际因素的挑战。应积极构建高标准自贸网络打破美国封锁、加快推进“一带一路”建设、以高质量为目标加快对外贸易转型、加强国际贸易领域人才培养,以实现我国对外贸易的健康可持续发展。     

Timing of trade liberalization

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on growth and long-run global income inequality using a two-country model of human capital accumulation by credit-constrained households. I show that the timing of trade liberalization is a crucial determinant of its effects on growth. Moreover, I show that the size of the long-run income gap between the two countries depends on the difference in domestic income inequality when they open up to trade. Based on these results, I analyze the effects of redistributive policy within a country. I show that redistribution in one country may increase income per capita of its trading partner if it is undertaken in a steady state, while the opposite is true if the policy is undertaken during transition.     

Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence

I provide novel evidence for the impact of trade policy uncertainty on exporters. In a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model, trade policy uncertainty will delay the entry of exporters into new markets and make them less responsive to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty, such as binding trade policy commitments at the WTO, increase entry. The predictions are tested on disaggregated, product-level Australian imports with model-consistent measures of uncertainty. The estimates show that growth of exporter–product varieties would have been 7% lower between 1993 and 2001 without the binding commitments implemented after the WTO was formed in 1996. If Australia reduced all its tariffs and bindings to zero, more than half of predicted product growth is accounted by removing uncertainty. These results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation.     

国际贸易融资中的问题及对策分析

本文根据笔者多年经验,分析了当前国际贸易融资中存在的问题的原因,并给出了我国国际贸易融资问题的对策建议.     

Social responsibility of countries and their international trade: A gravitational approach

This article presents an econometric study based on a gravitational model estimation of the link between the prevailing social conditions in a country and its exports. It is based on an original indicator of social conditions: the Responsible Competitiveness Index (RCI) launched in 2007 by AccountAbility, the organisation that introduced the international AA1000 Standard. The regressions initially show a positive connection between the social responsibility of the countries and their exports. It is not a linear connection but shows a bell-shaped curve stronger in countries with lower levels of social responsibility (Southern countries): it can be negative in countries with high levels of social responsibility (Northern countries).     

浅谈国际物流对国际贸易的影响

世界经济逐渐复苏,后金融危机时期国际贸易止跌回稳,国际物流也摆脱低迷状态,重拾增势。本文着重分析国际物流对国际贸易的影响,进而提出相应的对策建议,以期对我国国际物流业的发展有所帮助。     

A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises

This paper addresses two important issues at the nexus of the literatures on international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign affiliate sales (FAS), and multinational enterprises (MNEs). First, the introduction of a third internationally-mobile factor (physical capital) to the standard 2 × 2 × 2 “knowledge-capital” model of MNEs with skilled and unskilled labor allows us to resolve fairly readily the puzzle in the modern MNE literature that foreign affiliate sales among two identical economies completely displace their international trade. Intra-industry trade and intra-industry FDI (and FAS) can coexist for national and multinational firms (with identical productivities) in identical countries. Second, the introduction also of a third country to the model suggests a formal N-country theoretical rationale for estimating gravity equations of bilateral FDI flows and FAS, in a manner consistent with estimating gravity equations for bilateral trade flows.     

时间价值与国际自由贸易新论

时间是一个特殊的经济学变量,时间投资的正确与否将影响收益的大小。而把时间投资中的新概念——时间机会成本和边际时间机会成本引入国际自由贸易中,以时间投资收益和时间机会成本的大小为标准,来分析贸易双方的利益得失和分配,将使国际自由贸易的发展方向更加明确化。所以这种全新的分析模式将为国际自由贸易理论的研究开创美好的未来。     

国际服务贸易与国际物流服务贸易——战略性的发展机遇

国际服务贸易作为国际间新的经济形态,是世界经济高度化、一体化发展的结果,应当看到这个新的经济增长点和经济发展的重要机遇,进行战略性的思考和长远的安排.国际物流服务贸易作为国际运输服务贸易的升华和发展,是国际服务贸易一个新的课题,对于促进国际间从商品、技术、知识到服务的全面融合,提高我国国际服务贸易水平具有重要意义,将成为我国新的经济增长点和战略选择.为推进国际物流服务贸易,可从两方面着手进行:一方面是以系统物流为独立的服务形态进入到国际服务贸易领域里面去,这是国际物流服务贸易的主体;另一方面是作为国际实物商品贸易共生、配套、派生的物流服务,随同实物商品国际贸易进入到国际贸易领域,在多数情况下,这已经成为国际商品贸易的一部分,不容忽视.此外,推进国际物流服务贸易,除了要从数量上推进外,还要注重内涵的扩展.而且国际服务贸易与国际物流服务贸易的发展,会遇到很多困难和问题,对此要有充分的准备.     

国际贸易中的反倾销调查原因分析与对策研究

近年来,中国已经成为全球范围内遭受反倾销调查案最多的国家,为中国企业国际市场开拓带来严重阻碍。本文围绕国际贸易中反倾销调查原因进行分析探讨,结合国内市场实情寻求解决对策,希望通过本文的论述,唤起政府有关部门以及国内企业对反倾销问题的重视。     

The gravity model,African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and US trade relations with sub-Saharan Africa

The United States of America enacted the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000 to grant sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) a preferential treatment in their exports to the USA. With this Act, most of the exports from SSA can now enter the USA duty-free, and this is expected to boost the exporting and manufacturing sectors in SSA. Hopefully, this singular act of assistance from the USA will spur entrepreneurship in SSA, thereby creating jobs and jump starting meaningful economic growth in the region. Since trade is a major catalyst in economic development, AGOA is arguably the most meaningful intervention from a developed country to an under-developed region such as SSA in recent times. Has AGOA had any impact on US trade with SSA? This paper sheds some light on this issue by examining the flow and composition of trade between the USA and AGOA countries. The analysis uses trade data (US imports) for 36 countries over 12 years. Empirical estimations based on the gravity model show that receiving AGOA status has a strong positive and significant impact on overall trade with the US. Interestingly, however, the analysis also shows a disproportionate impact of crude oil imports from the oil-producing countries of Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, which is clearly not the intent of the Act.