数字服务贸易国际竞争力比较及对我国启示

数字服务贸易是指通过网络跨境传输交付的产品和服务贸易,是数字贸易的重要组成部分。数字服务贸易深刻影响国际贸易分工、分配关系,引发国际社会广泛关注,各国围绕跨境数据流动、数据存储规则、知识产权保护、数字服务监管等的博弈日益激烈。基于联合国贸发会议统计框架和相关数据对全球数字服务贸易发展态势进行分析,并通过国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数、显性比较优势指数对主要经济体数字服务贸易国际竞争力进行比较后发现,全球数字服务贸易增长迅猛,正成为服务贸易增长关键动力,推动全球贸易向服务化方向发展;从细分子类看,与信息通信技术(ICT)高度相关的计算机和信息服务贸易增长最快,金融、保险、工程研发等传统服务贸易增长较慢;从主要经济体看,发展中国家与发达国家数字服务贸易在规模、占比和竞争力水平上均存在较大差距,并呈现出一定扩大趋势。我国应把握数字服务贸易发展机遇,推动数字服务产业创新发展,鼓励和支持企业参与全球数字服务分工,完善数字服务治理体系,与相似发展水平的国家一同推动包容性数字贸易规则体系的建设。     

Bilateral ‘WTO‐Plus’ Free Trade Agreements: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Singapore 2004

The World Trade Organisation's 2004 Trade Policy Review of Singapore (WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004) depicts the small and outward‐oriented economy as one of the most open countries to international trade and investment. The review highlights the benefits of the outward‐oriented strategy that has enabled the Singapore economy to weather recent external shocks such as the Asian financial crisis to the SARS and to the recent unfavourable conditions in the Middle East. In particular, the report commended Singapore's efforts on its liberalisation of the services sector and its economic benefits to consumers and global trade. However, the WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004 highlights several key areas of concerns: (a) the commitment to multilateral agreements with the rising number of bilateral free trade agreements signed by Singapore and (b) the lack of growth of total factor productivity, a key indicator for long‐run efficiency of the economy. The paper addresses the above key concerns raised in the WTO's TPR of Singapore in terms of its commitment to global trade in terms of WTO‐plus bilateral FTAs, which intends to support a multilateral trading system, and its overall industrial strategies to raise its competitiveness.     

International trade in financial services

International trade in financial services is a topic of some importance both to the financial services sector itself and in international trade negotiations. Unfortunately, intrinsic problems in defining and measuring trade in services, combined with a lack of data in many countries, have made empirical analysis of trade in financial services difficult. Recent improvements in data, although still providing only a limited coverage, do now provide a basis for analysis. In this paper, we use data from the OECD International Trade in Services Statistics 2001 database to conduct an analysis of trade in financial services based on standard theories and empirical techniques for international trade. Our results suggest that the key concepts of international trade are of use in understanding international trade flows in financial services. In particular, we find evidence of significant volumes of intra-industry trade in financial services, as well as significant volumes of inter-industry trade for some countries, including the UK. Using Balassa's ‘revealed comparative advantage’ index, the most highly ranked countries are Belgium-Luxembourg, Italy, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and Greece. Using the ‘net export ratio’, the countries that are ranked highest include Germany, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and Belgium-Luxembourg.     

我国数字贸易面临的挑战及对策

当前,互联网引领数字经济将传统部门逐步数字化,不断创造新的商业模式。全球贸易正在经历数字贸易的引领和驱动。数字贸易由服务业逐步向制造业扩展,迈向数字化和智能化。数字贸易是制度创新建规则、管理创新建平台、技术创新数字化三维驱动下,将数字化的贸易内容一站式便利贸易的新型业态。"21世纪数字丝绸之路"建设、5G商用、《二十国集团数字经济发展与合作倡议》及强大的互联网市场、庞大的电商市场,为我国数字贸易发展提供了大好机遇,同时也面临着制度创新、管理创新、技术创新三大挑战。我国在数字贸易实践中,应充分借鉴发达国家的经验,利用好国际合作平台,通过多边谈判形成数字贸易规则;结合实际尽快制定管理政策,在政策引导下细分管理措施,强化数字贸易平台管理,反对平台垄断,对中小平台进行柔性管理,鼓励有实力的平台进行协同创新,突破管理瓶颈,创新实现智能化管理;技术创新主要解决数字产业化、产业数字化问题。     

Openness to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: An International Comparative Analysis

This paper quantifies and analyses the extent of restrictions on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the service sector in developed and developing countries. Services account for an increasing share of global FDI. Recognition of the economic benefits of FDI clashes with nationalistic economic, political and national security concerns about foreign takeover of ‘strategic’ sectors, such as telecommunications, finance and transport. Consequently, almost all countries impose restrictions on FDI in services. Several different types of restrictions are considered: limitations on foreign ownership, screening or notification procedures, management restrictions and operational restrictions. These restrictions on FDI are computed at the industry level and then aggregated into a single measure for the service sector as a whole for 23 developed and 50 developing countries. Notwithstanding the worldwide trend towards liberalisation of restrictions, there remain substantial disparities between regions and individual countries in the severity of restrictions on inward FDI in services. The lowest restriction scores are in Europe and Latin America, whereas East Asia, South Asia and the Middle East have the highest levels of restrictions. The evolution over time of FDI restrictions is also presented for developed countries over the period 1981–2005, showing liberalisation in all countries, especially since the early 1990s, although to varying extents across countries. The severity of restrictions also differs considerably by sector, with electricity, telecommunications, transport and finance most restricted. The paper also finds a strong negative correlation of restrictiveness with inward stocks of FDI in services, suggesting that restrictions impede FDI.     

后危机时期的贸易保护主义及其应对

面对国际金融经济危机后的市场萎缩和经济低迷,新一轮贸易保护主义重新抬头,突出地表现在滥用贸易救济措施、逾越WTO法则、霸权与强权性贸易干预以及国际投资限制等。贸易保护对WTO自由化、经济全球化进程、国际贸易的恢复和世界经济的复苏产生了较为严重的制约作用。因此,在积极反制国外贸易保护的同时,我国应加快推进经济增长着力点转变和过剩产能消化,注重开放型经济的内涵发展和区域合作框架的拓展。     

Regulatory barriers to trade in services: A new database and composite indices

This paper presents new data on services trade regulation for 46 countries in 22 services sectors over 6 years (2014–2019). The data consist of qualitative information which is scored and weighted to produce composite indices. They cover market access and national treatment restrictions with respect to all GATS modes of supply, but also behind the border domestic regulation such as licensing, non-transparent regulatory procedures and competition policy. The database is updated annually. The trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) are significantly correlated with services trade flows, but also with the performance of the sectors subject to the restrictions including logistics performance indicators, interest spreads, density of ATMs and secure servers, broadband penetration and outcomes such as legal rights and the time to resolve insolvency.     

German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

生产性服务贸易自由化与制造业生产率提升：基于跨国数据的分析

生产性服务贸易自由化作为当前的一种主要的对外开放的形式,对国家制造业发展的影响还没有统一的理论和实证研究。文章通过构建理论模型研究生产性服务贸易自由化对制造业生产率影响假设,利用2008-2012年中的69个国家的跨国面板数据来对假设进行检验。通过理论和实证分析发现：生产性服务贸易的自由化可以促进国内制造业生产率的提升,但是提升的作用在不同的国家收入水平和生产性服务业部门间体现出差异性。从国家的收入水平差异来看,生产性服务贸易自由化对高收入国家的影响要大于低收入国家。对于不同生产性服务业部门的自由化影响来看,显著地影响制造业生产率的是金融和商务服务生产性服务业,运输和电信生产性服务业的影响较小且不显著。     

Trade in Services and TFP: The Role of Regulation

What determines total factor productivity (TFP) growth in services: is it services trade or services–trade regulation? To respond to this question, we use four indicators of international trade in services since 1990 to 2005, namely foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stock, services imports, domestic sales of foreign affiliates (FATS) and FDI inflows, to examine what type of services trade forms a direct determinant. Subsequently, we analyse what type of sector‐specific regulation has played an inhibiting effect on services TFP growth. Such analysis contrasts with former studies in which mainly factor inputs and economy‐wide regulation are used to explain services TFP. This paper provides evidence that neither trade nor entry barriers are robust determinants to explain cross‐country differences. Instead, regulations on operational procedures affecting the variables costs structure of the firm seem to play a more important role in explaining TFP growth between countries, particularly in combination with information and communication technology (ICT) capital.     

基于整体网分析法的中国服务贸易国际竞争力分析

文章采用联合国贸发会议统计数据库服务贸易数据,基于服务贸易进出口关系,构建六个服务贸易关联网络,选取整体网分析法中的点度中心性指标、中间中心性指标和基于CONCOR算法的核心-边缘结构性指标,对中国服务贸易在2008年金融危机前后10年间的国际竞争力状况及其变化进行了研究。分析显示:金融危机后全球各经济体间的服务贸易往来愈加密切;中国在全球服务贸易网络中的竞争力总体偏低但地位有所上升,且进口地位优于出口地位;金融危机后中国在国际服务贸易网络中的权力地位快速提升,渐由半边缘地带转向核心地带,对其他经济体的影响力增强,尤其是东亚和东南亚等周边区域。总之,中国在全球服务贸易网络中的竞争力正在由弱转强。     

Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, even though in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm‐level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and ‘tradable’ services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, even though services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as – and in some cases more innovative than – manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of ‘technological’ innovative activity, even though services innovations more often take a ‘non‐technological’ form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non‐exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.     

The value of market access and national treatment commitments in services trade agreements

This paper looks at market access and national treatment commitments for services in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and in 95 regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the countries that are covered in the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). The objective is to quantify the impact of legal bindings on trade in services that result from a reduction in the uncertainty faced by exporters. Bilateral bindings indices are created for five broad service sectors (professional services, computer services, telecoms, financial services and transport services). They indicate how close the sector is from a fully bound regime with no possibility to introduce any new trade barrier, by comparing commitments with the actual trade regime. These bilateral indices are then tested over the period 2000–2014 in a structural gravity model. Despite differences across sectors, the results confirm that the legal bindings typically found in services trade agreements tend to have a positive impact on exports even if no actual liberalisation takes place.     

我国服务贸易国际竞争力研究

随着服务业的对外开放,我国服务贸易发展迅速,2009年服务贸易出口排名世界第五.但是,与发达国家相比,我国服务贸易竞争力较弱,制约了我国服务贸易的发展.本文在数据调研的基础上,分别利用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数和显性比较优势指数三个指标对我国服务贸易竞争力进行了分析,并提出了提升我国服务贸易竞争力的对策.     

金融危机下遏制贸易保护主义的法律对策

在全球金融危机的笼罩下,贸易保护主义卷土重来。20世纪30年代《斯穆特-霍利关税法》导致大萧条与当今全球金融危机催生新一轮贸易保护主义有惊人的相似。为了避免全球贸易危机发生,信守更坚实和稳定的多边贸易体制,加强国家之间的合作,将是应对金融危机蔓延、抵制贸易保护主义的良策。     

Would Freeing Up World Trade Reduce Poverty and Inequality? The Vexed Role of Agricultural Distortions

Trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in developing countries, yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in non‐farm goods. Those distortions reduce some forms of poverty and inequality but worsen others, so the net effects are unclear without empirical modelling. This article summarises a series of new economy‐wide global and national empirical studies that focus on the net effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade on poverty and inequality globally and in various developing countries. The global Linkage model results suggest that removing those remaining distortions would reduce international inequality, largely by boosting net farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and would reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 per cent. The analysis based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model for a sample of 15 countries, and nine stand‐alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non‐poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue.     

中印国际服务贸易竞争力优势比较与评价

随着全球经济的飞速发展,国际服务贸易不断呈现出新的发展趋势和发展特点,成为评价一国整体经济实力的重要指标。通过对中印两国近9年来国际市场占有率(IMS)、贸易竞争力指数(TC指数)和显性比较优势指数(RCA指数)等指标的对比分析,指出了两国之间的差异,提出了中国今后发展服务贸易的相应政策措施。     

我国金融服务业的开放与法律监管问题研究——基于上海自贸区的分析

随着中国(上海)自贸区的挂牌成立,中国的改革也进入到新的阶段。在全球金融危机余波仍在肆虐的当下,金融服务业开放的同时尚需要强力且高效的法律监管。本文通过对当前中国金融监管现状进行分析,结合世界金融危机后金融监管模式的改革趋势,认为中国(上海)自贸区的金融监管应基于保护投资者和公众的利益,且监管应考虑成本和效果的平衡,监管指标不宜过于复杂。     

战略性国际贸易理论评介

在过去几十年中，世界上出现了一些具有深远影响力的国际贸易理论，这些理论通常被划分为传统的理论和现代的理论。其中传统理论的代表有：Adam Smith提出的“绝对优势理论”和David Ricardo提出的“相对优势理论”。传统的理论是建立在工业化生产基础而确立的，因此在当今服务贸易飞速发展的时代，已经无法充分地解释全球政治经济、国际化竞争战略和新型贸易关系等诸多问题。在这种情况下，迫切要求新的理论基础。Porter和Ohmae于20世纪90年代分别在《国家竞争优势》和《无边的世界》著作中提出了具有划时代意义的“战略性国际贸易理论”。这两种理论揭示了当代国际贸易理论研究从纯粹经济关系向政治经济和全球性战略关系的转变。     

中国入世10周年与全球多边贸易体制的变化

本文回顾了中国加入世界贸易组织10年来的改革与发展历程,指出中国对全球多边贸易体制的主要贡献在于推动国际经贸发展、反对贸易保护主义、忠实履行多边贸易规则、努力协调多边贸易谈判、积极参与多边贸易机制建设以及切实维护发展中国家利益。10年来,多边贸易体制的变迁主要表现为力量结构、议题结构及外部透明度的变化。展望未来,多边贸易体制的改革应重在制度建设与反对贸易保护主义。基于加入世界贸易组织以来的实践经验,本文得出了我国参与全球经济治理的几点启示。