Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

Export diversification,specialisation and inequality: Evidence from Asian and Western countries

This paper examines the dynamic effect of globalization at the disaggregated level of sectoral export diversification and manufacturing specialization on income inequality using a panel data set of 52 Asian and Western countries from 1988 to 2014. The paper uses dynamic panel data models applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations that provide more accurate and better results than those obtained with static panel data models. The results suggest that there is no statistically significant relationship between manufacturing specialization and inequality while sectoral export diversification has been the driving force of inequality. For sub-groups of countries, higher sectoral export diversification increases inequality and higher manufacturing specialization decreases inequality in high-income Asian countries and European Union (EU) member states. Moreover, the study finds insignificant effects in low-income Asian countries and Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Coping with the crisis and export diversification

Using a highly disaggregated firm–product–destination level data from Denmark, we analyse how Danish exporters responded to the global recession in 2008–09 and the recovery that followed. We show that firms reacted mainly by adjusting their scale of export shipments and by extending their export portfolio outside of their core products and markets. More importantly, we also find that export diversification into fast-growing economies like China was associated with better export growth performance. Hence, trade reorientation beyond traditional market destinations accelerated export growth and as such constitutes an important mechanism for understanding the various determinants of firm heterogeneity.     

技术创新、生产效率和出口多样化与中国制造业出口竞争力

本文将出口质量指数纳入制造业出口竞争力的评价指标体系,基于中国海关数据库,利用熵权法估算了中国制造业细分行业的出口竞争力,并利用中国2000~2013年制造业行业面板数据研究了技术创新对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响,着重分析了其影响渠道。研究发现,在控制内生性和其他因素的影响后,技术创新对中国制造业出口竞争力有显著正向影响,进一步研究发现,技术创新通过行业生产效率和出口多样化影响出口竞争力提升。区分技术创新投入和产出后发现,行业技术创新产出对出口竞争力的影响依然显著。另外,动态模型的估计是最有效率的。区分不同类型的行业后发现,重型制造业、同质性制造业以及中等技术类型行业的技术创新显著促进行业出口竞争力提升。     

Market knowledge: Evidence from importers

Previous firm‐level literature established that there are substantial costs of entry into new export markets. Chaney (The American Economic Review, 104, 2014, 3600) opens the black‐box of entry costs by building a dynamic network model of international trade where firms acquire customers in new destinations through their existing customers in other destinations. Following his conjecture, this paper examines whether firms use their existing suppliers in a destination to find their first clients in those markets. I use a disaggregated data set on Turkish firms' exports and imports for the 2003–08 period, and investigate the effect of import experience on export entry. By identifying import experience using instrumental variables, and shutting down productivity channels with firm‐year fixed effects, I find that having a supplier in the destination country raises the probability of starting to export to that country by 5.5 percentage points on average, revealing a “market knowledge” phenomenon. The paper's main contribution to the literature is finding that firms' country‐specific import experience increases the likelihood of export‐market entry. Digging further to explore heterogeneous effects, I find that this effect does not exist when trading with low‐income countries, but it increases with the destination country's size, proximity, language similarity and the size of its Turkish immigrant community. Moreover, the strength of the firm's relationship with its supplier as proxied by several variables such as the share of imported products that are differentiated increases the probability of export‐market entry.     

Geographic export diversification: Determinants and their link with export performance

This study examines company‐specific factors that may help explain the choice of an export‐market strategy and explores how the selected export strategy contributes to explaining company's export performance (XP). Concentrating on a specific area within a broad spectrum of export behavior analysis has enabled us to examine these factors in greater depth. The results of our research, which was carried out using a sample comprising Spanish exporting companies, show a firm's size, a firm's age, and a firm's greater foreign ownership in its share capital are all determining factors for adopting a strategy geared to export‐market diversification. A greater level of investment in R&D and greater international commitment are also important in this regard. We suggest reinforcing these two factors because there is evidence of a better XP among firms that have a wider range of foreign markets.     

A Note on Firm Age and the Margins of Exports: First Evidence from Germany

This article uses a new tailor-made data set to empirically investigate the link between firm age and the extensive and intensive margins of exports for the first time for Germany. Results turn out to be fully in line with theoretical considerations. Older firms are more often exporters, export more and more different goods to more different destination countries, and export to more distant destination markets.     

Gender and Export Behaviour: Evidence from Women-Owned Enterprises

This article draws on the results of a qualitative, exploratory study of 20 Australian women business owners to demonstrate how using a ‹gender as social identity’ lens provides new insights into the influence of gender on exporting and entrepreneurial behaviour. Interview data reveal perceptions of gender identity and gender relations varied and influenced the interpretations which women business owners placed on their exporting activities. Women in the study used different terms to describe exporter and entrepreneurial characteristics to those found in extant literature. A strong theme was exporting as a life-changing experience that allowed the women to grow personally as well as grow the business and succeed as exporters.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

Distance from core competences and new export survival: Evidence from multi‐product exporters

We study the determinants of the survival of new export products of multi‐product firms. We use micro‐level data from Chile to estimate linear fixed‐effects and non‐linear survival models to show that a measure of “distance” between a firm's new export and its previous export basket is a negative and significant determinant of the survival of the new export, especially during its first year. Our interpretation of this finding is that exports further away from firms’ core competences have lower chances of survival in exports since it is more difficult for firms to achieve competitiveness in them. Our results suggest that country‐level diversification, at least through existing firms, should be gradual.     

Foreign aid and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia

This paper attempts to examine the growth impact of foreign aid in Cambodia over the period 1980–2014, using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study also incorporates investment and trade openness into the model. The empirical findings show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in both the short run and the long run; investment has positively contributed to growth in the long run while foreign aid has positive impact on growth only for the short run. On the contrary, in the long run, it has negative impact on investment and growth. This can be suggested that dependence on foreign aid for long periods of time does not positively contribute to investment and growth in Cambodia. In order to achieve sustainable growth and enhanced industrialization, policy-makers should move from aid dependence to promote investments through elevating domestic and foreign capital in the country.     

中国出口技术结构与经济增长的协整关系研究

本文采用修正的出口复杂度指数测算包括中国在内的48个国家(地区)的出口技术结构,根据中国1992~2013年的数据构建计量模型,实证分析出口技术结构和经济增长的关系。主要结论有:中国出口复杂度有一定程度的提升,但仍然落后于大多数发达国家,经济增长水平的散点分析也符合中国经济发展水平,因此中国并不存在"Rodrik悖论";通过协整分析表明出口技术结构的提升是经济增长的动力之一,但反之并不成立。对此本文提出政策建议以推动出口技术结构的升级优化。     

金融发展与出口净技术复杂度:基于不同技术含量的实证分析

中国当前参与的全球化生产仍集中于技术含量较低的劳动密集型行业,该技术分工显示分析出口净技术复杂度尤为重要。本文测度了出口净技术复杂度水平并进行了国际比较,同时分析了其与金融发展的相关性,并基于金融发展对出口净技术复杂度的作用机制,选取商业银行相对集中度CONC指标及私人债券的市价总值占GDP的比重作为衡量金融发展特征的指标,引用行业外部金融依赖系数,进而实证分析了金融发展对总体行业及不同技术含量的行业出口净技术复杂度的差异性影响,发现金融发展对总体行业的影响符合理论预期,但对高及中高技术行业的出口净技术复杂度的正向效应稍弱,反映出中国当前仍以技术水平含量不高的低端产业为主,但正处于向高端产业迈进的过渡阶段。     

轻工行业标准、出口与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章利用1987～2005年数据进行实证检验,建立协整方程,分析了轻工行业标准、行业出口和经济增长三者之间的关系,并对其进行Granger因果检验.实证结果表明,标准、出口和经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,本国轻工行业标准的实施会对经济增长产生负的作用.欲使轻工标准实施促进贸易和经济的增长,必须积极采用国际先进标准,优化升级产业结构.     

Entrepreneurship,Innovation and Economic Growth: Evidence from GEM data

Studies on the impact of technological innovation on growth have been largely mute on the role ofnew firm formation. Using cross-sectional data on the 37 countries participating in GEM 2002, this paper uses an augmented Cobb–Douglas production to explore firm formation and technological innovation as separate determinants of growth. One area of interest is the contrast between different types of entrepreneurial activities as measured using GEM Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rates – high growth potential TEA, necessity TEA, opportunity TEA and overall TEA. Of the four types of entrepreneurship, only high growth potential entrepreneurship is found to have a significant impact on economic growth. This finding is consistent with extant findings in the literature that it is fast growing new firms, not new firms in general, that accounted for most of the new job creation by small and medium enterprises in advanced countries.     

Real exchange rate (RER) as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in Africa

Appropriate exchange rate (ER) policies in some Asian and Latin American countries have led to improvement in industrial diversification and growth. The growth ‘miracle’ of the Asian countries centres on the effective use of ER and trade policies, specifically the adoption of depreciation of real exchange rate (RER). However, the case of Africa is different, as the continent is yet to adopt an appropriate ER policy that enhances industrial diversification and growth. Examining the effectiveness of the RER as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in 36 African countries, this study applied a dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique to determine how changes in RER affects the growth composition of the three main productive sectors – primary, secondary, and tertiary and their response rates. Our findings suggest that the primary sector leads to appreciation of the RER, while the secondary and tertiary lead to depreciation of the RER. This result has serious policy implication for the Africa continent that has relied so much on the production of primary commodities. Rather than pursue the policy of ER depreciation which affects the primary and secondary sectors, policy shift in favour of the tertiary sector should be highly encouraged.     

出口退税率的调整与出口稳定增长——基于中国工业行业面板数据的实证分析

运用不同行业的面板数据进行协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,考察如何通过出口退税政策促进中国出口稳定增长。研究结果显示:对于不同行业,出口退税政策对出口增长的影响不同;出口退税政策对机电行业产品出口的影响不明显;长期内,出口退税政策对高新技术行业、传统行业和"两资一高"行业的出口增长影响显著。因此,中国可以通过提高高新技术行业的出口退税率和降低传统行业及"两资一高"行业的出口退税率,在促进产业升级的同时保持总体出口的稳定增长。     

农产品进出口贸易对浙江农业经济增长的影响——基于出口扩展型生产函数的实证分析

本文基于出口拓展型生产函数实证分析浙江农产品进出口贸易对农业经济增长的影响,表明农产品进出口贸易对浙江农业经济增长有显著的促进作用,农产品出口对经济增长的产出弹性大于进口和农产品进出口总额的产出弹性,由此得出浙江应建立农产品出口导向型发展战略,利用沿海地理优势和发达地区资本充足优势,面向国际市场重点发展农产品加工工业,促进农产品进出口贸易。     

The moderating effect of technology and marketing know-how in the regional-global diversification link: Evidence from emerging market multinationals

In this study, we link regional diversification to global diversification of emerging market multinationals (EMNCs) and explore the importance of firm-specific technology and marketing know-how in that process. We develop our hypotheses and test them using a sample of 625 Chinese manufacturing multinationals across multiple industries. The results reveal that regional diversification predicts global diversification, and that firm-specific technology and marketing know-how both increase the likelihood of a firm’s moving from regional to global operations. Technology know-how was found to be more influential than marketing know-how.