Global capital flows and development: A Survey

Abstract

From a development perspective, capital flows can both provide significant benefits and entail significant costs. Consequently, the development impacts of capital flows do not readily lend themselves to simple generalizations. This survey considers the development benefits and costs of four kinds of capital flows: foreign direct investment, equity portfolio investment, bond finance, and commercial bank lending. The survey suggests that the development impacts of these flows are conditional on both their specific characteristics and the larger policy environments in which they take place. It claims short-term superiority for foreign direct investment and equity portfolio investment over bond finance and commercial bank lending, and offers a set of policy recommendations to make capital flows more development-friendly.     

扩大我国对外投资的发展模式研究

随着我国加入世贸组织和开放程度的不断提高 ,扩大中国企业对外直接投资已成为亟待解决的一个重要课题。从理论和实践的角度看 ,扩大我国对外直接投资已具备了些有利条件 ,但同时也存在一定的问题 ,对此提出了相应的对策和发展模式     

Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

中国对外直接投资发展阶段研究

随着我国国际竞争力的不断增强和"走出去"战略的逐步实施,我国已经成为世界上主要的对外直接投资来源地。本文运用最新的经济统计数据,对我国经济发展水平和对外直接投资之间的关系进行实证研究,以此分析判断我国对外直接投资所处的发展阶段和未来趋势。结果表明:一方面,我国的对外直接投资与邓宁的投资发展周期理论相吻合;另一方面,我国现阶段的对外直接投资实际情况与理论预期还存在一定的差距,对外直接投资的发展阶段滞后于经济发展水平。     

Do types of foreign capital matter for income equality?

We investigate the link between financial integration and income inequality, suggesting that different channels of financial integration have contrasting distributional effects. Using an unbalanced panel of 65 countries from 1992 to 2015 and employing dynamic panel data methods, we find that greater financial integration through debt-creating capital increases income inequality compared to equity-type capital. Furthermore, a larger share of direct investment in financial integration is associated with lower income inequality; the converse is true for loans and credit, while the share of portfolio investment has no significant effect when considered as a whole. Evidence also shows that increased financial integration and trade is beneficial for reducing the income inequality of emerging economies.     

Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan

This paper investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports and imports from Japan, employing an augmented standard gravity model. Several econometric techniques, including the Gamma Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator, are used to rectify possible problems of heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows inherent in the estimation of gravity models of trade. The major finding is that outward FDI is trade enhancing for the Japanese manufacturing industry. However, we find that whether outward FDI creates or replaces trade depends on the industry under scrutiny. Our results indicate that the complementary relationship between FDI and trade is dominant in Japanese manufacturing, especially in the food and beverages, electric machinery, primary metals, and precision machinery sectors. We find also that Japanese overseas investments substitute for imports of chemical products, and for both exports and imports of general machinery.     

经济发展水平对我国对外直接投资影响的实证研究

近30年来,我国经济一直保持较快的增长速度,我国不仅作为世界经济最具活力的地区而吸引了大量来自世界各地的投资,而且,正在成为新兴的以对外直接投资来参与世界经济的重要力量。通过运用格兰杰因果关系,对我国经济发展水平与我国对外直接投资间的关系进行了实证分析和检验,也进一步说明了我国的经济增长与对外直接投资具有明显的相关性,且经济增长成为推动我国对外直接投资的原因。     

市场开放度、劳动生产率与我国地区工资差异

以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为基础,实证分析了我国西部大开发以来市场开放度、劳动生产率与地区工资差异之间的关系,结果表明,从全国角度来看,市场开放度和人力资本的增加对工资增长的贡献效应很显著,劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加虽然对工资增长的贡献效应为正,但其效果并不明显;分东、中、西地区来看,市场开放度增加对工资增长的贡献,东部高于中部,更高于西部;人力资本的贡献效应则恰好与之相反;劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加对工资增长的贡献效应在不同地区的差别并不明显。     

金融业外商直接投资对发展中东道国金融体系效率的作用机理分析

外资金融机构本身的高效率运作及其对内资金融机构的竞争与技术溢出是改善东道国金融体系效率的主要传导路径。外资金融机构具有较高的经营效率,有利于促进当地金融市场的发育,而金融业外商直接投资带来的竞争和技术溢出更有利于促进当地金融体系效率的提升。外商直接投资尽管对东道国金融体系效率存在诸多积极效应,但消极影响也不容忽视。     

外商直接投资流动对我国就业结构的动态效应——基于VAR模型和脉冲响应的实证检验

基于VAR模型的理论基础,本文运用协整分析和误差修正(VEC)模型,通过脉冲响应分析方法,实证研究FDI流动对我国区域就业的不均衡影响,旨在揭示FDI对区域就业动态作用的路径变化。结果表明:FDI与三大区域就业人数之间存在长期协整关系。FDI流入对东部地区的就业效应为负,对中西部地区的就业效应为正;FDI流出对中部的就业效应为正,对东西部的就业效应为负;总体上,FDI流动的就业负效应明显;FDI的区域就业效应具有滞后性,且长期吸纳效应和短期挤出效应并存,对东部地区和中部地区的动态冲击效应显著。     

苏州利用外商直接投资现状分析

随着全球经济一体化和投资自由化程度的进一步加深,外商投资成为促进苏州经济高速发展的重要因素,外商投资企业进入苏州有效地填补了苏州经济发展的资金缺口,扩大了出口创收,增加了就业,促进了产业结构的调整,对苏州经济产生了深刻的影响。目前苏州利用外资的特点是外商直接投资规模较大、外商直接投资来源相对集中、外资投向地区分布较为集中和投资产业集中于第二产业等。     

我国利用外国直接投资过程中存在的问题及对策

自1979年以来,我国坚持对外开放的基本方针,积极引进外资,发展对外贸易,取得了举世瞩目的成就,同时,也出现了一些不容忽视的问题,给本国经济的进一步发展带来了负面影响。进入21世纪,随着经济全球化的不断深化和贸易投资自由化的推进,国际资本越来越成为重要的资源之一,各国政府都采取了积极的引资政策,加大了引资力度,我国利用外国直接投资面临着前所未有的挑战和强大的竞争压力。因此,克服利用外资中出现的问题,保证本国经济的健康和快速发展,制定相应的对策成为我国政府的必然选择。     

外商直接投资、对外直接投资与国际收支——基于国际收支平衡的我国对外直接投资

在我国,引进外商直接投资和对外直接投资之间存在着严重的不对称性。我国国际收支中投资收益逆差抵消了大量的贸易顺差,在未来贸易顺差和外资流入减少的情况下,这将会导致中国国际收支的恶化。因此,需要大力推进我国的对外直接投资以谋求国际收支平衡。     

税收饶让抵免对涉外投资影响效应的实证研究

为研究双边税收协定中饶让抵免条款对我国涉外投资的影响效应,运用2003~2010年37个国家的宏观面板数据,通过一个简单的实证分析模型分别检验了外国予以我国的税收饶让对外国对华直接投资（FDI）的影响以及我国予以外国的税收饶让对我国对外直接投资（ODI）的影响。结果表明,税收饶让明显刺激了外国直接投资流量,但并未发现税收饶让对我国对外直接投资具有显著的促进作用。据此,建议在进行双边税收谈判与协定签订时,既要争取外国对我国的饶让抵免优惠,也要积极给予对外投资战略合作国家以税收饶让,从而充分利用国际税收协定,促进国内战略资本的优化布局,实现＂引进来＂与＂走出去＂的双向协调。