上海市经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究

以上海市1986—2007年三类环境污染指标为研究样本,从时序维度对上海市人均GDP与环境污染之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现上海市人均GDP与工业固体废弃物产生量、工业废水排放量呈正N型曲线关系,倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线在上海不能成立;人均GDP与工业SO2排放量的曲线关系不明显。Grangery因果关系检验表明,人均GDP的变化是固体废弃物产生量变化的格兰杰原因;人均GDP的变化是SO2排放量变化的格兰杰原因;但人均GDP的变化不是工业废水排放量的格兰杰原因;工业固体废弃物排放量、SO2排放量、工业废水排放量都不是上海市人均GDP变化的格兰杰原因,意味着上海市经济水平不断提高的同时,伴随着环境质量的不断恶化,而工业三废的排放量对上海人均GDP几乎没有影响。     

贸易开放提高了二氧化碳排放吗?——来自中国的证据

采用中国 1990—2010 年的省级面板数据,选取排放总量和碳强度作为二氧化碳排放指标,实证考察贸易开放对中国碳排放的影响,研究发现: ( 1) 贸易开放显著提高了碳排放,"向底线赛跑"假说揭示的环境负面效应强于贸易的环境收益效应。(2) 环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在中国成立,人均收入是影响碳排放的关键因素。( 3) 贸易开放的环境效应存在时空上的结构性差异,随着时间的推移,贸易开放对环境的负面效应有所减弱; 相对于内陆地区,贸易开放对沿海地区环境的负面效应要小。在分析实证结果背后原因的基础上,得出了相应的政策启示。     

The interest group theory of financial development in China: Openness and the role of interest groups

The interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents' opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows. Based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness, existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings. This paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for China. Using Chinese cross-province data, we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state-owned enterprises and local government in China. The empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone. However, the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness. These results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross-province differences and time-series variation in financial development in China.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

中国经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国对外贸易迅速发展,吸收FDI以及对外直接投资规模不断扩大,国民经济长期保持高速增长。通过贸易开放度和投资开放度两个指标测算中国的经济开放度,并在此基础上运用VAR模型和冲击反应模型对中国经济开放度与经济增长之间的关系进行经验检验。结果表明,贸易开放度和投资开放度对中国经济增长的作用存在较大的差异。进一步的动态研究发现,在不同的发展阶段,经济开放度对中国经济增长的冲击作用也存在较大的差异。     

Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis

A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially, which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation–inequality relationship. We use a new data set consisting of 1,254 observations from 123 primary studies. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtain several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) inequality-increasing effect. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizeable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, we find an average inequality-increasing impact of globalisation in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality.     

国际贸易、外国直接投资、经济增长对环境质量的影响——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线研究的回顾与展望

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)是环境经济学的一个热点问题,笔者沿着其研究脉络,重点探讨了基于国际贸易、外国直接投资的EKC的研究现状。分析表明:虽然许多学者对相关领域进行了富有成效的研究,但EKC方法本身在指标选取、经济分析和计量方法等方面存在一些缺憾,未来的研究应侧重于对国际贸易、外国直接投资与环境反馈作用、经济活动与生态系统演进等领域的研究,并在数学手段和模型上加以改进。     

中国服务贸易开放度研究

入世前中国在入世议定书中对服务贸易的开放作出了相关承诺。如今中国入世已近10年,服务贸易对外开放的进展情况如何?本文就这个问题采用修正过的对外贸易比率法进行了实证研究,并用同样的方法研究了美国的服务贸易开放度,然后对中美服务贸易开放度进行了比较。研究结果表明,中国服务贸易处于一个相对较高的水平,服务贸易开放的现状与我国入世承诺基本一致。     

贸易开放度与经济增长研究进展述评

文章以贸易开放度度量指标的构建方式将贸易开放度的度量方法分为指标体系法和模型构建法进行阐述,并对每类方法存在的问题进行了评论;尽管贸易开放度与经济增长的关系在理论上有较为一致的观点.但是在实证研究方面却出现了不一致的结论,文章就实证研究结论不一致的原因进行了分析与评论.     

Robustness of the KOF index of economic globalisation

The KOF indices of globalisation are the most used globalisation measures in international economics literature, but it uses the nominal trade openness measure to construct the globalisation index. In this paper, we use real trade openness instead of nominal trade openness and recalculate the KOF economic globalisation index over the period 1970–2013. Using the panel data regressions for 146 countries, we revisit the economic globalisation–economic growth nexus to investigate the robustness of the KOF economic globalisation index. We consider several possibilities in model specifications, and the results show that using nominal trade openness measure in calculating the KOF globalisation index is statistically robust. In addition, the KOF economic globalisation index in logarithmic form introduces a more robust outlook in the panel data regressions—a lower bias is emerged by considering different trade openness measures to calculate the globalisation level.     

服务贸易开放度与碳排放 ——基于1995~2009年跨国面板数据的实证分析

在世界服务贸易取得迅猛发展的同时,全球面临的环境问题也日益突出。基于1995~2009年的国际面板数据,本文构建计量模型对服务贸易开放度与碳排放的关系进行了实证分析。实证检验发现,在全样本区间内,服务贸易开放度与二氧化碳排放呈倒U型关系;依收入水平分组的实证检验发现,高收入国家服务贸易开放度的提高可以显著减少二氧化碳的排放,中低收入国家则不显著,而中高收入国家服务贸易开放度与碳排放呈倒U型关系。     

我国对外贸易、FDI与环境污染之间关系的研究:1995-2005

本文通过对面板数据的分析发现,FDI有利于我国环境质量的改善,而对外贸易则恶化了我国环境,发达国家通过对外贸易向我国转嫁污染,"污染避难所"假说在我国得到证实。通过对比分析时间序列模型和面板数据模型得出:我国的环境污染与人均GDP之间呈现出正"U"形关系,不符合EKC假说,但是面板数据选择的样本符合EKC假说。以上结论与之前的大量实证研究结果不一致,本文给出了合理解释,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

经济开放与收入差距:基于STR模型的分析

基于1978—2009年的时间序列数据,在总结相关传导机制的基础上,运用平滑转换回归模型就经济开放对收入差距的影响效应进行研究。结果表明:中国经济开放与收入差距之间的关系是非线性的,两者之间存在明显的体制转换动态特征。在1985年以前,经济开放对收入差距的效应为负;在1985年以后,经济开放对收入差距的效应为正。主要原因在于,经济地理效应和技术偏移效应逐渐替代了要素禀赋效应。     

浙江省服务贸易增长影响机理及实证研究

利用1996—2013年浙江省服务贸易相关数据,建立服务贸易与货物贸易额、外商直接投资、服务贸易开放度、汇率、第三产业产值之间的计量经济模型,分析浙江省服务贸易发展与影响因素之间的经济关系。实证结果表明,服务贸易开放度对浙江省服务贸易发展具有显著的正向促进作用;第三产业产值对服务贸易发展具有积极的促进作用;汇率变动对服务贸易增长具有一定的正向促进作用;货物贸易和外商直接投资对服务贸易增长具有正向促进作用。