HOME EQUITY IN RETIREMENT

Retired homeowners dissave more slowly than renters, which suggests that homeownership affects retirees' saving decisions. We investigate empirically and theoretically the life-cycle patterns of homeownership, housing, and nonhousing assets in retirement. Using an estimated structural model of saving and housing decisions, we find first that homeowners dissave slowly because they prefer to stay in their house as long as possible but cannot easily borrow against it. Second, the 1996–2006 housing boom significantly increased homeowners' assets. These channels are quantitatively significant; without considering homeownership, retirees' net worth would be 28%–44% lower, depending on age.     

You can take it with you: Proposition 13 tax benefits,residential mobility,and willingness to pay for housing amenities

The endogeneity of prices has long been recognized as the main identification problem in the estimation of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for the characteristics of a given product. This issue is particularly important in the housing market, since a number of housing and neighborhood features are unobserved by the econometrician. This paper proposes the use of a well defined type of transaction costs–moving costs generated by property tax laws–to deal with this type of omitted variable bias. California's Proposition 13 property tax law is the source of variation in transaction costs used in the empirical analysis. Beyond its fiscal consequences, Proposition 13 created a lock-in effect on housing choice because of the implicit tax break enjoyed by homeowners living in the same house for a long time. Its importance to homeowners is estimated from a natural experiment created by two amendments that allow households headed by an individual over the age of 55 to transfer the implicit tax benefit to a new home. Indeed, 55-year old homeowners have 25% higher moving rates than those of comparable 54 year olds. These transaction costs from the property tax laws are then incorporated into a household sorting model. The key insight is that because of the property tax laws, different potential buyers may have different user costs for the same house. The exogenous property tax component of this user cost is then used as an instrumental variable. I find that MWTP estimates for housing characteristics are approximately 100% upward biased when the choice model does not account for the price endogeneity.     

Reconsidering The “Firstmale-Breadwinner Economy”: Women's Labor Force Participation in the Netherlands, 1600–1900

Abstract

This contribution provides methods for estimating developments in women's labor force participation (LFP) in the Netherlands, for both preindustrial and industrializing eras. It explains long-term developments in Dutch LFP and concludes that the existing image of Dutch women's historically low participation in the labor market should be reconsidered. Contrary to what many economic historians have supposed, Dutch women's LFP was not lower, and was perhaps even higher, than elsewhere in the pre-1800 period. As in other Western European countries, the decline of (married) Dutch women's LFP only started in the nineteenth century, though it then probably declined faster than elsewhere. Thus, this study concludes that the Netherlands did not constitute the “first male-breadwinner economy,” as historians and economists have suggested. Scrutinizing the nineteenth-century data in more detail suggests that a complex of demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes resulted in this sharp decline of Dutch women's crude activity rates.     

THE PUZZLING DIVERGENCE OF RENTS AND USER COSTS, 1980–2004

This paper demonstrates that, in the context of U.S. housing data, rents and ex ante user costs diverge markedly—in both growth rates and levels—for extended periods of time, a seeming failure of arbitrage and a puzzle from the perspective of standard capital theory. The tremendous volatility of even appropriately‐smoothed ex ante annual user cost measures implies that such measures are unsuitable for inclusion in official price statistics. The divergence holds not only at the aggregate level, but at the metropolitan‐market level as well, and is robust across different house price and rent measures. But transactions costs matter: the large persistent divergences did not imply the presence of unexploited profit opportunities. In particular, even though detached housing is readily moved between owner and renter markets, and the detached‐unit rental market is surprisingly thick, transactions costs would have prevented risk‐neutral investors from earning expected profits by buying a property to rent out for a year, and would have prevented risk‐neutral homeowners from earning expected profits by selling their homes and becoming renters for a year. Finally, computing implied appreciation as a residual yields a house price forecast with huge errors; but either longer‐horizon or no‐real‐capital‐gains forecasts—which turn out to have similar forecast errors—imply a far less divergent user cost measure which might ultimately be useful for official price statistics. Some conjectures are offered.     

The risk of falling house prices in Italy

This paper shows that Italian house market is less exposed to price shocks than the American one. Variations in the house price index in real terms have been studied along with the affordability ratio and the relation between house prices and rent levels for the period 1995–2004 in Italian provinces. Comparison with US data reveals greater overpricing in the US during the expansion phase (2000–2004). Although a speculative bubble in all US metropolitan areas considered does not emerge, US financial and economic structural factors make the US real estate sector more exposed to price shocks. To test the compatibility of Italian house prices with fundamentals an econometric model is designed to analyze the provincial house prices from 1995 to 2003.     

‘‘Isn't it time you were finishing?’’: Women's Labor Force Participation and Childbearing in England, 1860–1920

Abstract

This contribution examines the relationship between women's labor force participation (LFP) and fertility in three industrial towns of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century England from a feminist economic perspective. The study augments existing statistical approaches to demographic history by discussing women's motivations. Women's LFP influenced their likelihood of family limitation (via effects on both age at marriage and marital fertility). Where women were most likely to be in paid work, they were most likely to limit family size. It is further argued that the diversity of LFP patterns is the principal explanation for the varied patterns of fertility decline in different parts of Britain.     

Housing price and entrepreneurship in China

Housing price has increased dramatically in China during the past decade. The appreciation of house value could relax credit constraint and thus encourage entrepreneurship. However, a house serves as both an important investment channel and a prerequisite for marriage in China. The continuous high return of investment in housing and intensified marriage market competition make house purchase a priority for young people and their parents, which would crowd out entrepreneurial activities. Using two large datasets, we find that high housing price in general discourages entrepreneurial activities for urban adults. For house owners, while house value appreciation has a positive wealth effect, the ratio of mortgage over income has a negative effect. For non-owners, a higher ratio of housing price over income corresponds to a lower probability of entrepreneurship. This study highlights the negative consequences of surging housing price on entrepreneurship in developing countries.     

Do house prices affect campaign contributions?

Individual campaign contributions are the largest source of financing for U.S. presidential and congressional candidates, though the body of research examining why people give remains small. To help understand these decisions, we estimate the causal impact of house prices on donations across campaigns and parties using an instrumental variables strategy. Our results indicate that an increase in house prices increases ZIP code-level donations to Democratic presidential and congressional candidates, with minuscule or no effect for Republican candidates. The effects in areas with a greater proportion of renters are larger than areas with more homeowners. Since this population is likely to experience higher rents as a result of house price increases, this suggests that pleas for policy may inspire giving. Further, areas with the highest fraction of college educated residents also see the largest effects, when compared to less-educated areas, suggesting a wealth effect exists as well.     

Wealth Effects,Local Area Attributes,and Economic Prospects: On the Relationship between House Prices and Mental Wellbeing

This research exploits large variations in local house prices to investigate whether house prices correlate with mental wellbeing, and uses contrasting implications for the effect of house prices on the mental wellbeing of homeowners and renters to shed light on why this correlation might arise. I document a positive correlation between house prices and the mental wellbeing of both homeowners and non‐homeowners, which is inconsistent with a pure wealth effect. Instead this finding suggests that local house prices provide a reflection of available amenities and economic opportunities in the area.     

Heterogeneous preferences and investments in energy saving measures

We investigate whether risk, time, environmental, and social preferences affect single-family homeowners’ investments in the energy efficiency of their house using established experimental measures and questionnaires. We find that homeowners who report to be more risk taking are more likely to have renovated their house. Pro-environmental and future-oriented renovators, i.e. renovators with lower discount factors, live in homes with higher energy efficiency. Pro-social preferences as measured in a dictator game relates positively to the energy quality of renovated houses. Controlling for the energy efficiency of houses, we further find that energy consumption as measured by heating and electricity costs is lower for future-oriented and pro-environmental individuals.     

Is China's growing service sector leading to cost disease?

This paper investigates empirically whether the growing service sector in China leads to cost disease, a likely consequence of tertiarization according to Baumol's unbalanced growth model. The investigation uses a panel data set of 30 provinces. The key findings are: the currently positive contribution of the service sector to growth is largely due to shifts of labour from the primary sector into services; however, signs of cost disease are discernible from weak responses to price signals in demand for services, in wage determination and labour input demand of the service sector.     

我国商品房销售价格的影响因素——基于空间面板计量模型的实证分析

运用空间面板计量模型,利用2000—2009年中国31个省域的面板数据,实证分析了我国商品房销售价格与其影响因素的关系。实证结果显示:空间面板计量模型的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国的商品房销售价格存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区商品房销售价格的提高能够推动本地区商品房销售价格的提高;城镇居民收入水平、城镇化水平、第三产业发展水平和对外开放程度对商品房销售价格有正向推动作用,政府对经济的干预程度和工业化水平的提升有助于降低商品房销售价格。     

SCHOOL CHOICE: SUPPORTERS AND OPPONENTS

We examine the attitudes of Ohio homeowners about school choice, which includes open enrollment programs, school vouchers, tuition tax credits, and charter schools. Previous studies examine more limited forms of choice and investigate fewer possible influences. Overall we report at least five new findings and five findings that contradict previous studies. We find the strongest predictors of opposition for school choice are people having graduate degrees and living in high‐performing public school districts. We find people living in blue collar areas and using private schools to be the strongest predictors of support. Males tend to oppose choice and African Americans support it. We find no role for income, the convenience of alternative schools, or the protection of house values in support for school choice. Overall we report at least five new findings and five findings that contradict previous studies. (JEL H44, I22)     

The added worker effect in the Spanish case

This study estimates several equations of labour participation for married women to check if the ‘added worker hypothesis’ is fulfilled in the Spanish case. To test this hypothesis a subsample of married women are used, obtained from the Survey of Structure, Conscience and Biography of Class of the year 1991 (SCBC-91). The main outcome is that women's labour participation in Spain is still conditioned by their husbands' labour status. Specifically, women's labour participation is stimulated when their husbands are unemployed.     

The Relationship Between Saving and Credit from a Schumpeterian Perspective

After 1995, the United States experienced housing and mortgage booms, fuelled by increased lending from less regulated institutions, such as hedge funds. At the micro level, the housing boom may have left families with more wealth, but the mortgage boom may have increased their financial vulnerability. Using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, we consider both wealth creation and a select number of financial vulnerability measures of homeowners. The data indicate that the housing boom was not only associated with larger house values, but also moderated wealth gains and substantially greater financial vulnerability of homeowners. Both trends were more pronounced among middleincome and Hispanic families, who saw larger wealth gains, but also greater increases in financial vulnerability than their counterparts. Given the breadth of the spread in homeowners’ financial vulnerability alongside sharply higher house prices, our results support the link between more deregulated financial markets and rising financial instability.     

Regional UK house price co-movement

ABSTRACT

Cyclical synchronization of home prices has important implications for monetary (and other) policies. Regional house price divergence, even over a business cycle, can inhibit labour mobility and prevent workers from moving to where they could add most to their own wages and overall growth. We study house price co-movement across the different UK regions with a method, that, unlike previously employed techniques, allows for time-varying estimates. We find first, that the UK exhibits more home price divergence compared to previously reported results for the US. Second, regions near London exhibit the most co-movement, and those further from London the most divergence. Third, London itself is in the ‘middle of the pack’ in terms of synchronization compared to other regions. This may reflect London’s status as a ‘global city’ and being the destination for housing demand from sources abroad. Lastly, segmentation has clearly been increasing, rather than decreasing in recent years.     

Global capital markets,housing prices,and partisan fiscal policies

In recent years, global imbalances have channeled the excess savings of surplus countries toward the real estate markets of deficit countries. By consequence, the deficit countries that attracted lots of foreign capital experienced large run‐ups in house prices, whereas most surplus countries that exported capital exhibited flat or slow house price growth. We first use new house price data and a novel instrumental variable design to show the causal relationship between housing prices and capital inflows, particularly through debt bonanzas. We then argue that international capital flows affect the fiscal policy preferences of both voters and political parties by way of their impact on housing prices. Where capital inflows are large and housing prices are rising, we expect voters to respond by demanding both lower taxes and less publicly‐provided social insurance because rising house prices allow homeowners to self‐insure against income loss. In contrast, declining house prices produce greater demands for social insurance, particularly among those most exposed to housing market risk. We present evidence from two cross‐national surveys that supports these claims, as well as a “before and after” analysis of the housing crash in Eastern Europe. We also show that the connection between house prices and social policy also manifests itself in government spending outcomes, mediated by partisan control.     

Women in the Rural and Industrial Labor Force in Nineteenth-Century Spain

Abstract

This contribution analyzes determinants of women's labor force participation (LFP) in northwest coastal Spain (Galicia) in the second half of the nineteenth century. The study uses census takers' notebooks from 1857 and 1870 in three municipalities with different economic structures: Nigrán, an agricultural municipality in southern Galicia on the estuary of Vigo, where women predominantly worked in agriculture; Bueu, an industrial town where 80 percent of women were employed in fish processing and related activities; and Coruña, Galicia's biggest city in 1857, where commerce and services were the main economic activities. The sample represents 2 percent of the region's population. The study focuses both on demand – how the local economic structure influenced the entrance of women into the labor market; and supply – how age, civil status, and number of children influenced women's LFP. The industrialization of coastal Galicia impelled women's high participation rates.     

Childcare Costs and Migrant and Local Mothers' Labor Force Participation in Urban China

ABSTRACT

This study empirically analyzes the impact of childcare costs on the labor force participation (LFP) and childcare utilization of migrant and local mothers of preschool-age children in urban China, using data from the 2010 National Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Populations. The estimates show that childcare costs have a strong negative effect on the LFP and childcare utilization of migrant and local mothers. Compared to local mothers, the LFP and childcare utilization rate of migrant mothers are, respectively, more and less sensitive to changes in childcare costs. The analysis indicates that the LFP and childcare choices of migrant mothers are more constrained by the lack of access to affordable childcare than are local mothers in China.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on real output and price in a sample of 11 developing countries in the Middle East. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel attributed to anticipated exchange rate appreciation results in limited effects on output growth and price inflation. Consistent with theory's predictions, unanticipated appreciation of the exchange rate appears more significant with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.