Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components

This paper examines whether fair value adjustments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) predict future bank performance. It also examines whether the reliability of these estimates affects their predictive value. Using a sample of bank holding companies, we find that fair value adjustments included in OCI can predict earnings both 1 and 2 years ahead. However, not all fair value-related unrealized gains and losses included in OCI have similar implications. While net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities are positively associated with future earnings, net unrealized gains and losses on derivative contracts classified as cash flow hedges are negatively associated with future earnings. We also find that reliable measurement of fair values enhances predictive value. Finally, we show that fair value adjustments recorded in OCI during the 2007–2009 financial crisis predicted future profitability, contradicting criticism that fair value accounting forced banks to record excessive downward adjustments.     

A public good approach to credit ratings – From concept to reality

From the onset of the 2008–2009 financial crisis to the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis, credit rating agencies have been assigned considerable blame. Reforming the credit rating industry has hence become an important policy issue. In addition to the regulatory efforts in the context of accepting the for-profit business model of ratings, there is a growing realization that credit ratings bear the characteristics of a public good. Financial market participants need reliable, transparent and independent assessment of credit risks. Credit ratings are therefore better viewed as an infrastructure matter. However, the proposed regulations seem to have missed this point. This paper introduces a new approach to credit ratings undertaken by the Risk Management Institute at the National University of Singapore that is predicated on the provision of credit ratings as a public good. With a public good alternative in place, the currently predominant for-profit business model may be counterbalanced.     

Does reporting position affect the pricing of the volatility of comprehensive income?

The FASB changed the reporting policy for comprehensive income (CI) by issuing ASU No. 2011-05, which requires CI be reported in performance statements (i.e., either a single income statement with net income or a separate statement of CI following the income statement) rather than the previously allowed equity statements. We examine whether the change in reporting position of CI led to higher market pricing of CI volatility incremental to NI volatility (“incremental CI volatility”), as measured by the price-earnings relationship. We find that the market pricing of incremental CI volatility increased from the pre- to the post-ASU period for non-financial firms forced to change the reporting position of CI from equity to performance statements. The increase is more prominent for firms that switched to the income statement than for firms that switched to a separate statement of CI. Further, we find that the increased market pricing of incremental CI volatility translates into lower valuation weights on other comprehensive income.     

Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’

This paper develops and tests a simultaneous equations model (SEM) for extending accounting based valuation models used in empirical studies. Rather than using analysts’ forecasts, we derive forecasts of operating income from the SEM to calculate the ‘other information’ variable in the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) model. The SEM forecasts are based on observable data contained in the firms’ reporting, like order backlog, and other publicly available information. The SEM produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of operating income compared to simple benchmark models particularly in years around economic changes and instability, like the years 2001 and 2009. Integrating the SEM forecast as ‘other information’ in market value regressions significantly increases the explanatory power compared to simpler versions without or with single information proxies for ‘other information’. Finally, we find that the SEM forecast is able to explain a major portion of the information advantage of analysts relevant for explaining market values.     

Does tunneling explain the sensitivity of executive compensation to other member firms’ performance?

This study examines how executive compensation is set when a firm is a business group member. Using Korea's unique setting of family-controlled business groups, we find that a member firm's executive cash compensation is positively linked to the stock performance of other member firms as well as its own. Further analyses reveal that this positive link is consistent with the hypothesis that corporate managers are rewarded for their decision to benefit the controlling family at the expense of the firm they manage. Specifically, we find that the sensitivity of executive pay to other member firms’ performance exists only in respect to firms in which the cash flow rights of the controlling family exceed those of the subject firm. We also find that this sensitivity is strengthened if the controlling family's control–ownership disparity in the subject firm is above the sample median.     

Is there a postnormal time? From the illusion of normality to the design for a new normality

Ziauddin Sardar's characterization of ‘postnormal times’ elegantly captures the mood of despair, uncertainty and insecurity in the West due to the multiple shocks of terrorism, economic recession and climate change. However, the prevailing mood in India, most of Asia and developing countries in general is confidence and optimism for the future. The label ‘postnormal times’ is inappropriate for resurgent Asia and other ‘emerging markets’. Similarly, these countries - as illustrated by examples from India - need more modernization and efficiency to save and improve the lives of their citizens. This paper argues that the seeming normality of twentieth century in the West was an illusion arising out of the ignorance and neglect of environmental and health consequences of unbridled industrial growth. The distorted assumptions of neoclassical economics are largely to blame for this. It is now time to pay back for those excesses. A new normality will emerge only by addressing these distortions and by creating democratic global institutions that can reflect the changed global balance of power of the 21st century. The intellectuals, opinion-makers and leaders of the world have to exercise their ethical responsibility and creative imagination to enable this new normality to emerge.     

Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter

The authors use a logistic smooth transition market (LSTM) model to investigate whether ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ market betas for Australian industry portfolios returns differ. The LSTM model allows the data to determine a threshold parameter that differentiates between ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ states, and it also allows for smooth transition between these two states. Their results indicate that ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ betas are significantly different for most industries, and that up-market risk is not always lower than down-market risk. LSTM models indicate that the transition between ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ states is abrupt, supporting a dual-beta market modelling framework.     

From watchdog to watchman: Do independent directors monitor a CEO of their own age?

We examine the impact of age similarity between independent directors and the CEO on earnings management. Using changes in independent director composition due to same-aged director deaths and retirements for identification, we find that firms with the presence of independent directors who have the same age with the CEO are more likely to manage earnings. We further find that age similarity between these two parties increases earnings management through lowering the effectiveness of board monitoring. Additionally, this positive impact decreases as the age gap widens, but intensifies if independent directors share other characteristics with the CEO, if independent directors sit on audit or nomination committees, if firms with lower information asymmetry and if CEOs are older. Our results are robust to alternative proxies of earnings management.     

The Term ‘Non-financial Information’ – A Semantic Analysis of a Key Feature of Current and Future Corporate Reporting

Accounting and corporate reporting can be seen as a language for specific purposes. Such a language requires the use of terms and concepts with a precise and commonly shared meaning to allow effective and efficient communication. We analyze the term ‘non-financial information’, which has become a part of mandatory corporate reporting within the European Union (EU) through recent regulatory actions. Our analysis is based on a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature, on the rational of semantic theory, as well as on a questionnaire survey. The clear finding is that, up to now, neither a common meaning nor a generally accepted definition of ‘non-financial information’ exists. We derive from the applied theoretical concepts that this situation negatively impacts the efficiency and effectiveness of corporate communication. Against this background we discuss several venues that might help to overcome this deficiency like issuing a mandatory guideline or changing the terminology.     

Neutral taxation of shareholder income? Corporate responses to an announced dividend tax

The introduction of the 2006 Norwegian shareholder income tax was announced in advance, and it increased top marginal tax rates on individual dividend income from zero to 28%. We document strong timing effects on dividend payout on a large panel of non-listed corporations, with a surge of dividends prior to 2006 and a sharp drop after. Mature firms are more likely to pay dividends, and high asset growth increases the probability of retaining all earnings. Intertemporal income shifting through the timing of dividends seems to be a drain on internal equity and cause increases in the corporations’ debt–equity ratios. The debt ratios drop sharply after the implementation of the reform.     

Surprised or not surprised? The investors’ reaction to the comprehensive assessment preceding the launch of the banking union

Did the Comprehensive Assessment (CA), preceding the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) launch in Europe, achieve its aims of producing new valuable information for the market? We show that the CA achieved the goal of increasing transparency: investors were able to detect weak banks at the announcement of the procedure (23rd October 2013), but gained full information on the amount of the capital shortfall only at the disclosure of the results (26th October 2014). Furthermore, at the official launch of the SSM (4th November 2014), banks under direct European Central Bank (ECB) supervision registered a more negative market reaction with respect to banks maintaining their national supervisors. Using a regression model including possible confounders and allowing for treatment effect heterogeneity, this negative reaction is confirmed. These findings suggest that, at least in the short run, investors penalized banks subject to direct ECB supervision, probably because of the fear of regulatory inconsistencies.     

The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?

Could macroeconomic factors such as income inequality be the real root cause of financial crises? We explore a broad variety of financial and macroeconomic variables and employ a general-to-specific model selection process to find the most reliable predictors of financial crises in developed countries over a period of more than 100 years. Our in-sample results indicate that income inequality has predictive power beyond loan growth and several other financial variables. Out-of-sample forecasts for individual predictors show that their predictive power tends to vary considerably over time, but income inequality has predictive power in each forecasting period.     

‘Slow-burn’ spillover and ‘fast and furious’ contagion: a study of international stock markets

‘Fast and furious’ contagion across capital markets is an important phenomenon in an increasingly integrated financial world. Different from ‘slow-burn’ spillover or interdependence among these markets, ‘fast and furious’ contagion can occur instantly. To investigate this kind of contagion from the US, Japan and Hong Kong to other Asian economies, we design a research strategy to capture fundamental interdependence, or ‘slow-burn’ spillover, among these stock markets as well as short-term departures from this interdependence. Based on these departures, we propose a new contagion measure which reveals how one market responds over time to a shock in another market. We also propose international portfolio analysis for contagion via variance decomposition from the portfolio manager’s perspective. Using this research strategy, we find that the US stock market was cointegrated with the Asian stock markets during four specific periods from 3 July 1997 to 30 April 2014. Beyond this fundamental interdependence, the shocks from both Japan and Hong Kong have significant ‘fast and furious’ contagion effects on other Asian stock markets during the US subprime crisis, but the shocks from the US have no such effects.     

Does financial reporting above or below operating income matter to firms and investors? The case of investment income in China

We explore a unique regulatory change in China in 2007 that moves investment income in an income statement from below the line of operating income to above the line. We find that, post-regulatory change, firms report high investment income when core earnings (operating income excluding investment income) are low and vice versa. Investment income and core earnings exhibit a significantly negative correlation every year post regulation, in contrast to a significantly positive correlation beforehand. We also find that investors do not fully see through the change. Before the regulation, both core earnings and investment income are positively correlated with contemporaneous stock returns and uncorrelated with future stock returns, suggesting appropriate pricing of the information. However, afterward, the results on core earnings are similar to those in the pre-regulation period, but investment income is negatively correlated with future stock returns, implying that the stock market overreacts to the information in investment income in the contemporaneous year.     

Reform Lessons From Investigative Journalism. Review Essay of ‘Beancounters’ by Richard Brooks

In 2021, the work of investigative journalists ICIJ and the accountants-founded global NGO Tax Justice Network had been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. This article reviews a recent bestselling research book by a multi-award-winning Private Eye investigative journalist: ‘Beancounters’ by Richard Brooks. Despite being a significant influence on global accounting practice, the culture, politics, services and practices of the Big 4 firms have hardly received serious forensic scrutiny by accounting academics. This paper discusses the methods, motives and breakthroughs of investigative journalists and how these can help advance our research and teaching in accounting. Their scoops and narratives can certainly make the classroom very interesting. Freed from the need to ‘prove’ scientific credibility and appease academic peer-review, investigative journalists can provide us with new concepts, linkages, data and evidence which we would not otherwise have seen. They force us to step out of our disciplinary boundaries and raise disturbing questions about our academic leadership, pedagogy, moral purpose and strategic direction. We provide suggestions for renewed academic courage, research and education reform in both accounting and finance and how the disciplines can be made more ethical, relevant and impactful.     

‘Deprival value’ vs. ‘fair value’ measurement for contract liabilities: how to resolve the ‘revenue recognition’ conundrum?

Revenue recognition and measurement principles can conflict with liability recognition and measurement principles. We explore here under different market conditions when the two measurement approaches coincide and when they conflict. We show that where entities expect to earn ‘super profits’ (residual income) the conceptual conflict is exacerbated by the adoption of ‘fair value’ (FV) as the measurement basis for assets and liabilities rather than the more theoretically grounded approach of ‘deprival value/relief value’ (DV/RV) which better reflects the impact of, and rational management response to, varying market conditions. However, while the problems of balance sheet liability and revenue recognition, and the related problems of income statement presentation, can be resolved by the application of DV/RV reasoning, this is not sufficient fully to resolve issues of the appropriate timing of profit recognition. Performance measurement issues still need to be addressed directly. The standard setters' current projects on ‘revenue recognition’, ‘insurance contracts’ and ‘measurement’ therefore need broadening to consider the pervasive issue of accounting for internally generated intangibles.