Sovereign debt, structural adjustment, and conditionality

The lack of a proper enforcement mechanism for sovereign debt generates a commitment failure. As a result, a sovereign may seek to improve its position in debt renegotiations and thus evade its debt obligations by reducing exports. Conditionality seeks to provide a solution to the incentive problem by addressing the commitment failure. Formalizing this argument, we show that conditionality helps the repayment of sovereign debt. In certain circumstances, it can eliminate debt overhang, especially when it is coupled with concessionary lending of sufficient magnitude. It is, however, unable to restore first best. When it is anticipated by lenders, conditionality may get international financial institutions and sovereign debtors into a trap where the debt overhang persist, debt rescheduling takes place periodically, and conditionality continues indefinitely.     

Relationship between initiative risk management and firm value: evidence from Chinese financial listed companies

This study considers 189 Chinese financial listed companies between 2009 and 2013 as research samples to establish indicators for evaluating the initiative risk management behaviour of financial enterprises. This work further examines the relationship between initiative risk management and firm value. Results show that financial enterprises could effectively increase firm value by taking initiative risk management measures, such as setting up departments or positions that specialize in risk management, using financial derivative instruments or engaging popular international accounting firms as audit institutions. Moreover, results reveal that the permeability of initiative risk management has an unstable effect on firm value, that is, a nonlinear relationship exists between the permeability of initiative risk management and firm value.     

Enforcing Compliance with Environmental Agreements in the Absence of Strong Institutions: An Experimental Analysis

This paper uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the performance of a deposit-refund mechanism used to enforce compliance with voluntary public-good commitments made in the absence of strong regulatory institutions. With this mechanism agents decide whether to join an agreement and pay a deposit prior to making their contribution decisions. If an agreement receives sufficient membership to form, members then make their contribution decisions and compliant members are refunded their deposits. If an agreement does not form, then deposits are immediately refunded and a standard voluntary contribution game is played. We find that the deposit-refund mechanism achieves nearly full efficiency when agreements require full participation, but is far less effective, and in some cases disruptive, when agreements require only partial participation. As the mechanism does not require the existence of strong sanctioning institutions, it is particularly suited for enforcing compliance with international environmental agreements.     

The 2016 Veblen-Commons Award Recipient: Daniel W. Bromley: Institutional Economics

Institutional economics remains impaired by a lack of agreement as to the meaning of the concept “institution.” At the practical level, this conceptual muddle prevents progress in the crucial task of helping problematic states in Africa, parts of South Asia, and the Middle East. Thousands of refugees seeking to enter Europe are a reminder of the tragic consequences of dysfunctional states. Standard international development programs — emphasizing economic growth and fighting poverty — are counter-productive because they fail to address the underlying institutional incoherence in fragile states. They are flawed because they focus on symptoms rather than reasons. A focus on the reasons for current dysfunctional states would bring attention to the defective institutional architecture — legal relations — that prevents the emergence of economic coherence where dysfunction now reigns. We must help countries craft economic institutions that will improve livelihoods. But conceptual coherence about institutions must first emerge from the academy.     

Law, trade, and development

This paper uses a Ricardian model to generate predictions about the influence of institutions on trade in differentiated (complex) and commoditized (simple) products and then uses a rich international trade data set for empirical tests. The model draws the distinction between the role of international transaction costs and domestic production costs in the trade of complex and simple products. The effects of institutions predicted by the model are identified with a three-step estimation procedure. We find that when countries have low quality institutions, institutional reform primarily influences production costs and has little influence on the volume of trade. Institutional reform, however, increases the diversity of exports in complex goods markets. Conversely, in countries with more developed institutions, institutional reform primarily influences transaction costs and is associated with gains in the volume and the diversity of complex exports.     

Providing public goods in the absence of strong institutions

This paper proposes a simple two-stage mechanism to establish positive contributions to public goods in the absence of powerful institutions to provide the public good and to sanction free-riders. In this mechanism players commit to the public good by paying a deposit prior to the contribution stage. If there is universal commitment, deposits are immediately refunded whenever a player contributes her specified share to the public good. If there is no universal commitment, all deposits are refunded and the standard game is played. For suitable deposits, prior commitment and full ex post contributions are supported as a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium for the resulting game. As the mechanism obviates the need for any ex post prosecution of free-riders, it is particularly suited for situations where players do not submit to a common authority as in the case of international agreements.     

ANALYZING POSTSECONDARY RETURNS: DOES EDUCATIONAL LOAN DEFAULT PLAY A ROLE?

The economic benefits of a traditional college education relative to a high school degree are well known to students and economists alike. However, little is known about the economic returns associated with associate and vocational degrees. Using a large micro-data set of former guaranteed student loan borrowers, this paper analyzes post-schooling returns for bachelors as well as associates and vocational students. The analysis further extends the existing literature by controlling for individual characteristics that income studies typically do not measure. By including the default status of the educational loan used to finance the postsecondary education, the intrinsic individual characteristics of commitment and initiative are controlled for and are found to significantly increase earnings.     

Economic Reform and Corruption: Evidence from Panel Data

The notion that economic reform can reduce corruption remains prevalent in the policy agenda of international financial institutions, especially of the World Bank. Economic reforms have, therefore, been carried out throughout various parts of the world to improve the performance of the economies. Using data from 94 low‐ and middle‐income nations for the period 1996–2015, this study employs static and dynamic panel analysis to examine whether economic reform undertaken in accordance with the World Bank's reform programs negatively affects corruption. Our findings suggest that enhancing government effectiveness (i.e. independence of civil service from political pressure, provision of quality public services, effective policy formulation and the government's commitment to such policies) and improving public rights and civil liberties could be some of the most promising policies in terms of fighting corruption. The role of economic development and growth in real per capita income is also found to be significant in some of the specifications. However, the assertion that economic reform can reduce corruption is rejected in all the specifications. We rather find evidence that economic reforms negatively affect the ability of democracy to fight corruption, although on a slim margin. The central theme of the implications of our findings is that in combating corruption, social, institutional and legal means are far more important than economic means. The finding thus is compatible with the World Bank's effort in the later years to introduce governance and democracy as effective tool against corruption.     

Culture,institutions, and long-run performance

If institutions are essential for long-run performance, why don't developing countries adopt institutions in developed countries to become rich? In this dynamic model, culture affects a ruler's institutional choice, while culture itself evolves endogenously. Multiple stable steady states are possible, and even similar initial conditions can lead to dramatically different steady states. The state of Qin's unification of China in 221 bc is used to illustrate the model. In one steady state, consistent with what happened in the state of Qin, individuals value material incentives. Qin did not strictly practice the patriarchal clan system advocated by Confucianism. Qin adopted Legalist institutions under which government officials were chosen by merit, and Qin culture was further shaped by Legalism. In another steady state, consistent with what happened in states other than Qin, individuals value loyalty and family values. Those states chose not to adopt Legalist institutions comprehensively, fearing that inconsistencies between culture and institutions could lead to internal rebellions even though institutional reforms would increase their military power. Other cases of how the interdependence between culture and institutions affects performance are also discussed.     

Domestic institutions and the ratification of international agreements in a panel of democracies

A recent literature explores how domestic institutions affect politicians’ incentives to enter into international agreements (IAs). We contribute to this field by systematically testing the impact of a broad set of domestic institutional design features. This allows us to compare new and established political economy explanations of IA entry. For this purpose, 99 democracies are analyzed over the period 1975–2010. We find that domestic institutions determine countries’ disposition to enter into IAs, as predicted by political economic theory. For example, democracies with majoritarian electoral institutions are less likely to conclude IAs than other democracies. Countries also conclude more IAs when their democratic institutions are long-lived and they lack an independent judiciary. However, programmatic parties and the number of domestic veto players are not associated with IA-making. The key take-away of this study is that specific domestic institutions matter for how frequently states make formal deals with each other.     

Tax enforcement,tax compliance and tax morale in transition economies: A theoretical model

The focus of this paper is the analysis of the relationship between tax enforcement, tax compliance and tax morale within countries characterised by rapid introduction of market institutions and slow evolution of political regimes, such as transition economies. The paper investigates a coordination game in which the government is ex-ante committed to tax enforcement and can observe the proportion of tax-compliant agents in the economy. In turn, two groups of agents (third-party reporting and self-reported income) are keen to evade taxes unlawfully but have limited information on how many others evade taxes; their tax morale is therefore an endogenous function of agents' perception on tax compliance. The model predicts that the lower the quality of political institutions and the weaker tax morale, the less tax compliance can be achieved. The third-party reporting group will also be bearing higher tax burden than the self-reported income group. The model entails that having political institutions of good quality is not a sufficient condition to conduce to tax enforcement or tax compliance. Due to the endogenous role of tax morale, the government could be pushed ex-post towards poor or no tax enforcement. If good political institutions are not accompanied by good information about the enforcement of tax collection, there is scope for co-existence of poor tax enforcement, low tax compliance and weak tax morale. As such, this model well describes the tax evasion behaviour observed since the outset of transition from planned to market economy.     

Trade and Endogenous Formation of Regions in a Developing Country

The authors present a model of regional catching‐up and development without scale effects. Regional growth is driven by technological imitation which is determined by positive externalities from international trade, the regions’ geography, and regional institutions. For the two regions considered, factor endowments are immobile land and human capital which is perfectly mobile between the two regions. Endogenous formation of regions is analyzed by introducing a non‐symmetric decrease in international transaction costs, reflecting the different geography and institutions in the two regions. Using panel data from 354 South African magisterial districts over the period 1996 to 2000, we find that geography is important in explaining trade patterns. As predicted, regions that are larger in terms of economic size, with good foreign market access and know‐how of foreign markets, competitive transport costs and a good local institutional support framework will be more successful in exporting manufactured goods than other regions.     

National borders,the global economy and geopolitics: A view from Yemen

The wider geographic scales of the new interdependencies called ‘globalisation’ are not new to peripheral states such as Yemen. In the colonial and post‐colonial world sensitivity to international developments has always been important in the course of local events. What is new is the particular configuration of political and economic institutions at various levels including, critically, the national level. This paper argues that, on the one hand, the new geography of economic and political ‘globalisation’ has left Yemen with distinctly ‘old’ forms of economic integration into world markets, but that, on the other hand, regional geopolitics have opened certain opportunities for Yemen's political elite to refashion itself as a strategic geopolitical player so as to maintain international flows of military and economic aid. The end result is the continued national dominance of these same elite. ‘Globalisation’ in this sense is a national political project.     

Organizational transparency and power in firm ownership networks

When public institutions do not support information disclosure and contract enforcement, controlling owners may compensate by setting up ownership networks that facilitate the exchange of resources and alignment of interests. We examine how firms’ controlling owners draw power from ownership networks to provide access to resources for or to expropriate resources from their firms. Horizontal power originates from network centrality and is associated with resource access whereas vertical power originates from principal-principal agency conflicts and is associated with exploitation of minority shareholders. We highlight the impact of horizontal and vertical power through their interaction effects with transparency and disclosure (TD) practices on fixed investments and performance in Russian firms. We find that TD and horizontal power or connectedness are substitutes, while whereas TD and vertical power are complements in their effects on fixed investment and firm performance. Without a strong commitment to TD, powerful owners may thus deprive the firm of productive investments.     

The contribution of institutions, trade, and geography to the development process: How robust is the empirical evidence to variations in the sample?

This paper uses an influence spectrum to identify influential subsets in a stylized cross-country data set and finds that institutions, geography, and trade (policy), all appear to play a significant role in the development process for a relatively large sub-sample of countries. For example, equatorial distance, a proxy for geography, becomes positive and significant (originally negative and insignificant) after removing only eight countries or observations from the original sample of sixty-three, while controlling for institutions and trade. In fact, for this set of fifty-five countries all three variables have the correct sign and are statistically significant. As another example, the trade variable becomes positive and significant (originally insignificant) after removing only two countries from the original sample.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

European unemployment revisited: Shocks,institutions, integration

This paper painstakingly restores a vintage empirical model that relates unemployment to shocks and institutions, and proceeds to run it on recent data featuring dramatic shocks and controversial institutional change. The original specification fails to fit these data. Theoretical insights and the results of suitably modified regressions suggest that the capital flow and reforms implications of international economic integration are crucial for interpreting twists and turns of unemployment rates in Europe and elsewhere.     

WINDOW GUIDANCE BY THE BANK OF JAPAN: WAS LENDING CONTROLLED?

Over the period 1961–1991, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) attempted to directly control the volume of commercial bank credit by providing lending targets for selected banks. This policy of “window guidance” (WG) applied to only a subset of lending institutions. The guided banks involved were under no legal obligation to heed the BOJ's requests. Using actual WG data to city banks, two questions are addressed. First, did city banks comply with WG (the “compliance hypothesis”)? Second, was WG successful in controlling economywide lending or did lending adjustments by other financial institutions simply displace the lending of guided banks (the “displacement hypothesis”)? The empirical results show a high degree of compliance in the first two decades of the program and evidence of weakening in the final years. The displacement hypothesis is rejected, particularly in the early period of highly regulated financial markets. (JEL E58, E51, E52)     

International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states

This paper investigates the impact of international sanctions on energy efficiency by employing the panel fixed effect as well as average marginal effect from the Tobit model via data on 30 sanctioned states over the period 1996–2015 with international sanctions including unilateral, plurilateral, U.S., EU, UN, economic, and non-economic cases. Overall, we find that the imposition of unilateral sanctions leads to a 0.067% decrease in energy efficiency, but that of plurilateral sanctions positively contribute to energy efficiency in the case of the full sample of countries. Moreover, the imposition of UN sanctions has a greater decrease on energy efficiency in the target states than the 0.042% reduction of energy efficiency when the sanctionist is the U.S. For robustness, empirical results indicate that the imposition of plurilateral sanctions results in a drop of energy efficiency in Islamic countries, but an increase in non-Islamic countries, while there are also negative shocks induced by the imposition of EU sanctions on energy efficiency in Asian countries, but not for non-Asian countries. We also consider endogenous problems and dynamic specification by using indicator variables and System GMM. In summary, our empirical findings provide policy suggestions for those sanctioned countries about how to maintain energy efficiency when facing international sanctions.     

人-组织匹配与离职意向:组织承诺的中介效应研究

本文旨在考察人-组织匹配对员工离职意向的影响,着重检验组织承诺的中介作用机制。通过对387名来自企业、银行、政府和事业单位的员工进行问卷调查,结果发现：人-组织匹配程度越高,员工的离职意向越低;组织承诺越高,员工的离职意向越低;人-组织匹配对员工离职意向的影响通过情感承诺和规范承诺的部分中介作用来实现。该结果说明：人-组织匹配对员工离职意向具有重要影响,情感承诺和规范承诺在其中发挥了关键作用。     

Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics

Do societies choose inefficient policies and institutions? An extension of the Coase theorem to politics would suggest the answer is no. This paper discusses various approaches to political economy and develops the argument that there are strong empirical and theoretical grounds for believing that inefficient policies and institutions are prevalent. We conclude that these inefficient institutions and policies are chosen because they serve the interests of politicians or social groups that hold political power at the expense of the rest. The theoretical case depends on commitment problems inherent in politics; parties holding political power cannot make commitments to bind their future actions because there is no outside agency with the coercive capacity to enforce such arrangements. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 620–652.