An Assignment Theory of Foreign Direct Investment

We develop an assignment theory to analyse the volume and composition of foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms conduct FDI by either engaging in greenfield investment or in cross-border acquisitions. Cross-border acquisitions involve firms trading heterogeneous corporate assets to exploit complementarities, while greenfield FDI involves setting up a new production division in the foreign country. In equilibrium, greenfield FDI and cross-border acquisitions coexist within the same industry, but the composition of FDI between these modes varies with firm and country characteristics. Firms engaging in greenfield investment are systematically more efficient than those engaging in cross-border acquisitions. Furthermore, most FDI takes the form of cross-border acquisitions when production-cost differences between countries are small, while greenfield investment plays a more important role for FDI from high-cost into low-cost countries. These results capture important features of the data.     

The choice of market entry mode: Greenfield investment,M&A and joint venture

Multinationals may enter a host market by different modes of foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper examines the choice of FDI mode, and shows that the profitability of greenfield investment influences this choice not only directly, but also indirectly since it determines the outside option of potential acquisition targets and joint venture partners. In particular, even if greenfield investment is a viable option, the multinational may prefer a joint venture to M&A, and M&A to greenfield investment, provided that M&A and joint venture both involve sufficiently low fixed costs. The reason is that the profitability of greenfield investment both reduces the acquisition price in the case of M&A, and gives local firms an incentive to agree to a joint venture.     

Fire‐sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crises on Foreign Direct Investment

We analyze the evolution of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing and emerging countries around financial crises. We empirically examine the Fire‐Sale FDI hypothesis and describe the pattern of FDI inflows surrounding financial crises. We also add a more granular detail about the types of financial crises and their potentially differential effects on FDI. We distinguish between mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and greenfield investment, as well as between horizontal (tariff jumping) and vertical (integrating production stages) FDI. We find that financial crises have a strong negative effect on inward FDI in our sample. Crises are also shown to reduce the value of horizontal and vertical FDI. We do not find empirical evidence of fire‐sale FDI; on the contrary, financial crises are shown to affect FDI flows and M&A activity negatively.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality in developing countries: Does sector matter?

Scholars have studied the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and within‐country income inequality in cross‐national contexts, but have not empirically investigated how FDI in different sectors might affect inequality in different ways. We use error correction models to analyze sectoral FDI data compiled from UNCTAD investment reports in 60 middle‐income countries from 1989 to 2010, arguing that FDI in services is more likely to be associated with inequality than FDI in other sectors. We argue that skill biases and changes in employment patterns associated with service sector investments can help explain these findings.     

Cross‐border Mergers and Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment

This paper presents a model of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), where FDI is comprised of greenfield FDI and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). In a monopolistically competitive environment merging firms do not reduce competition. Mergers are motivated by efficiency gains and transfer of technology. Following empirical evidence, greenfield investors are modeled as more productive than M&A firms, which are in turn more productive than exporters. The model has two symmetric countries and generates two‐way flows of both M&A and greenfield FDI. Trade liberalization makes more firms choose greenfield FDI over M&A and leads to lower productivity and welfare.     

Good and useless FDI: The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions

We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.     

Privatization, strategic foreign direct investment and host-country welfare

Recent evidence shows that developing countries and transition economies are increasingly privatizing their public firms and at the same time experiencing rapid growth of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). We show that there is a two-way causality between privatization and greenfield FDI. Privatization increases the incentive for FDI, which, in turn, increases the incentive for privatization compared to the situation of no FDI. The optimal degree of privatization depends on the cost difference of the firms, and on the foreign firm's mode of entry.     

FDI spillovers in new EU member states

Using an unbalanced panel of firm‐level data in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania, we examine the impact of foreign firms on domestic firms’ productivity. In particular, we try to answer the following research questions: (1) Are there any spillover effects of foreign direct investments (FDI), and if so, are they positive or negative? (2) Are spillover effects more likely to occur within or across sectors? (3) Are the existence, the direction and the magnitude of spillovers conditioned by sector and firm‐specific characteristics? Our findings show that FDI spillovers exist both within and across sectors. The former arise when foreign firms operate in labour‐intensive sectors, while the latter occur when foreign firms operate in high‐tech sectors. Moreover, we find that domestic firm size conditions the exploitation of FDI spillovers even after controlling for absorptive capacity. We also detect a great deal of heterogeneity across countries consistent with the technology gap hypothesis.     

FDI and domestic investment in Germany: crowding in or out?

This paper estimates the effects of outward FDI on domestic business investment in Germany at the industry level for a panel of 19 industry and 10 services sectors. We pay particular attention to the different motivations behind FDI, and distinguish between FDI to high-versus low-wage countries, to Europe versus the rest of the world, and FDI in services and industry sectors.We find that, in industry, FDI to low-wage countries crowds out domestic investment, whereas FDI to high-wage countries outside Europe crowds in domestic investment. In services, FDI to Western Europe crowds in domestic investment.     

FDI Policy,Greenfield Investment and Cross‐border Mergers

This paper examines a multinational's choice between greenfield investment and cross‐border merger when it enters another country via foreign direct investment (FDI) and faces the host country's FDI policy. Greenfield investment incurs a fixed plant setup cost, whereas the foreign firm obtains only a share of the joint profit from a cross‐border merger under the restriction of the FDI policy. This trade‐off is affected by market demand, cost differential, and market competition, among other things. The host country's government chooses its FDI policy to affect (or alter) the multinational's entry mode to achieve the maximum social welfare for the domestic country. We characterize the conditions shaping the optimal FDI policy and offer intuitions on FDI patterns in developing and developed countries.     

3D printing,international trade,and FDI

We analyze the relationship between 3D printing technology, the volume of trade, and the structure of foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a standard trade model with firm-specific heterogeneity into which we include 3D printing as a technology choice for foreign direct investment. The model generates three predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that face high transport costs. Second, technological progress in 3D printing leads to FDI dependent on traditional techniques gradually being replaced by FDI based on 3D printing. Third, with wider adoption, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence focusing on the sectors with the highest rates of adoption supports the first hypothesis, while evidence from a case study supports the second and third. Our results suggest that the traditional strategy of poor countries for export-led industrialization is threatened by the widespread adoption of 3D printing that replaces international trade.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN MEXICO,CRIME, AND ECONOMIC FORCES

This paper re‐examines inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 32 subnational Mexican states based on quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, which includes rising drug‐related crimes. We estimate our models using panel data methods by type of crime, state‐level indicators (real wages and electricity consumption), macroeconomic forces (the real exchange rate and interest rate), and a dummy variable for the financial crisis of 2008–2009. We employ a flexible lag‐length method and find that homicides and thefts have negative and statistically significant effects on FDI, while other crimes have no effects. Subsample work suggests higher negative effects in the most violent states. (JEL F15, F21, F23, F36)     

Foreign Direct Investment and External Financing Conditions: Evidence from Normal and Crisis Times

In this paper, we investigate the effects that external financing conditions in source and destination countries have on foreign direct investment (FDI) in normal and crisis times, using a difference‐in‐differences approach. We find that the financial development of the source and destination countries has a strong positive impact on the relative volume of FDI in financially vulnerable sectors in normal times. However, during the 2008–2010 global financial crisis, the relative volume of FDI in financially vulnerable sectors fell relatively more in financially developed source and destination countries, most notably if these countries experienced a credit crisis.     

Greenfield FDI and skill upgrading: A polarized issue

Outbound FDI is often accused of increasing income inequality in developed countries by shifting labour demand from low‐skilled towards high‐skilled workers (wage polarization). In response, we employ data on greenfield FDI that, in contrast to M&As, may be more clearly linked to skill upgrading. Our data also delineate greenfield FDI by sector, function and destination, allowing us to control for different motives and skill intensities for 17 developed countries for 2003–2005. We find that greenfield FDI in support services, e.g., back and front office services, induces polarized skill upgrading, benefitting high‐skilled workers at the expense of medium‐skilled workers, thereby polarizing wages.     

Technology sourcing versus technology exploitation: an analysis of US foreign direct investment flows

The traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI is undertaken principally to exploit some firm-specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor. However, recent theoretical work suggests a model of FDI in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country, but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects. This paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral FDI flows between the United States and major OECD nations over a 15 year period. The research makes use of Patel and Vega’s (Research Policy, 28, 145–55, 1999) taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively. While there is evidence that FDI flows into the United States are attracted to R&D intensive sectors, very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward FDI flows. The results suggest that, in aggregate, firm-specific ‘ownership’ effects remain powerful determinants of FDI flows.     

Trade costs and foreign direct investment

This paper focuses on an apparent conflict between the theory of foreign direct investment (FDI) and recent trends in the globalized world. The bulk of FDI is horizontal rather than vertical, and standard theory predicts that horizontal FDI is discouraged when trade costs fall. This seems to conflict with the experience of the 1990s, when trade liberalisation and technological change led to dramatic reductions in trade costs yet FDI grew much faster than trade. Two possible resolutions to this paradox are explored. First, horizontal FDI in trading blocs is encouraged by intra-bloc trade liberalisation, because foreign firms establish plants in one country as export platforms to serve the bloc as a whole. Second, cross-border mergers, quantitatively more important than greenfield FDI, are encouraged rather than discouraged by falling trade costs.     

Investment Liberalization and Cross‐Border Acquisitions: The Effect of Partial Foreign Ownership

This paper investigates the optimal strategy for a multinational to conduct FDI. We find that the incentives to use acquisition rather than greenfield investment change significantly if the multinational is allowed to have already an ownership interest in the target local firm before the market is fully liberalized. Interestingly, when investment costs are sufficiently high, the multinational prefers not entering the market at all with partial ownership in place, whereas a cross‐border takeover would be the optimal entry mode otherwise. For intermediate levels of entry costs, holding a stake in the local producer reverses positively the profitability of a full acquisition compared to greenfield investment.     

Location factors of FDI and the growing services economy1

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increasingly shifted toward the service sector. This change in the industrial composition of FDI and the non‐tradable nature of services may have altered the importance of location factors for investment decisions. To capture potential changes in FDI determinants, a contrasting sectoral analysis is performed. Based on FDI stock data from eight new EU member states for the period 1998–2004, we implement a dynamic panel approach allowing the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium investment level to vary across sectors. Results support our assumption that investment into the service sector, which is characterized by low installation costs, adjusts much faster to its desired level than manufacturing FDI. Thus, government interventions to attract FDI are likely to boost the service sector immediately while having a slower impact on manufacturing FDI. Furthermore, as services are mostly non‐tradable, FDI into this sector is largely based on market‐seeking motives while FDI in the manufacturing sector is also driven by international price competitiveness measured by real unit labour costs.     

Political regimes and foreign intervention

We present a theory of endogenous political regimes that emphasizes foreign direct investment as a motive for foreign governments to either induce regime transitions or promote regime consolidations. We characterize different forms of foreign intervention and identify the conditions under which they occur. We highlight new channels through which economic factors affect political regime choices. Foreign intervention is most likely to originate from countries where the government has a substantial pro-investor bias and to be directed at destinations where FDI is highly profitable and where income inequality is high. Foreign-sponsored coups d'état are more likely to be directed at democratic governments of poor countries. In destinations where FDI is highly profitable but the domestic elite is weak, foreign intervention tends to be aimed at stabilizing dictatorships. We relate the analysis to evidence on foreign intervention from around the world.