满足个性化需求的3D打印定制模式创新

通过对大量现实案例进行总结,揭示了个性化定制需求与3D打印云智能-分布式定制的衔接机制：打造云智能-个性化定制服务平台,采用分布式制造模式,社会大众通过搜索与众包方式参与产品制造全过程;提出了基于企业的3D打印云智能-分布式定制模式创新模型、基于跨界的3D打印云智能-分布式定制模式创新模型;给出了实现3D打印云智能-分布式定制模式的商业化策略：基于节点企业个性化解决方案的商业模式创新、基于全价值链整体解决方案的商业模式创新、基于商业生态圈跨界解决方案的商业模式创新。研究成果不但为满足消费者的个性化定制需求提供了定制模式和商业化策略,而且为拓展3D打印的主流应用市场提供了重要的理论支撑与决策借鉴。     

COMPARATIVE STATICS OF A MONOPOLISTIC FIRM FACING RATE‐OF‐RETURN AND COMMAND‐AND‐CONTROL POLLUTION CONSTRAINTS

The intrinsic comparative statics properties of a general rate‐of‐return regulated, profit‐maximizing model of a monopolist facing a command‐and‐control pollution constraint are derived. Recent advances in the theory of comparative statics are used to derive the basic comparative statics of the model, which are contained in an observable negative semi‐definite matrix and possess the form of Slutsky‐like expressions. We consider several command‐and‐control pollution constraints that are commonly implemented in practice, and conclude that the intrinsic comparative statics properties of the model are qualitatively invariant to the type of command‐and‐control pollution constraint imposed. We compare our results with those extant, and find that several basic results from the standard A–J model no longer hold in our model.     

MODELING INVESTMENT‐SECTOR EFFICIENCY SHOCKS: WHEN DOES DISAGGREGATION MATTER?

The most straightforward way to analyze investment‐sector productivity developments is to construct a two‐sector model with a sector‐specific productivity shock. An often used modeling shortcut accounts for such developments using a one‐sector model with shocks to the efficiency of investment in a capital accumulation equation. This shortcut is theoretically justified when some stringent conditions are satisfied. Using a two‐sector model, we consider the implications of relaxing several of the conditions that are at odds with the U.S. Input–Output Tables, including equal factor shares across sectors. The effects of productivity shocks to an investment‐producing sector of our two‐sector model differ from those of efficiency shocks to investment in a one‐sector model. Notably, expansionary productivity shocks boost consumption in every period, whereas expansionary efficiency shocks cause consumption to fall substantially for many periods.     

Taste Parameters as Model Residuals: Assessing the "Fit" of an Armington Trade Model

We note that calibration parameters in a multi‐country Armington trade model play a role similar to that of econometric residuals: they allow the model to fit the data exactly. We use this premise to evaluate the “fit” of a standard multi‐country computable general‐equilibrium model. We find that the model relies heavily on these parameters to explain the pattern of trade. In 33 of the 46 commodity groups we assess, modeled economic behavior explains less than 20% of the variation in bilateral trade. In a calibration‐ as‐estimation experiment, we estimate the commodity‐specific elasticities of substitution consistent with a well‐fitting model and find that they are substantially higher than widely accepted estimates.     

Asymmetric and Time‐Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G‐7 Countries

We use Granger causality tests within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS‐VAR) model using monthly data for G‐7 countries covering the period 1959:12–2008:10 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation‐uncertainty. The MS‐VAR model allows us to model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, assuming that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. Inflation uncertainty is measured as the conditional variance generated by a Fractionally Integrated Smooth Transition Autoregressive Moving Average‐Asymmetric Power ARCH (FISTARMA‐APARCH) model. The distinguishing feature of our approach from the previous studies is the determination of the sign of the Granger causality relationship between inflation and its uncertainty over time. First, using a rolling VAR model, we show that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is time varying with frequent breaks. Second, using the MS‐VAR model, we obtain strong evidence in favour of the Holland's ‘stabilizing Fed hypothesis’ for Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States. We also find evidence in favour of the Friedman hypothesis for Canada and the United States.     

距离测度视角下生态城市规划方案三维评价模型研究

在高速发展的城镇化和节能环保要求的双重背景下,生态城市成为中国城镇化发展的首选,各级政府短期内推出了大量生态城市规划方案,但多数生态城市规划方案存在随意性和主观性等问题。对生态城市规划方案、规划方案运作机制和规划方案保障措施3个维度进行了系统分析,通过指标选取构建了生态城市规划三维评价模型,采用距离测度方法对方案进行了综合排序,采用“四方格评价屏幕”方法对方案进行了投影分析。通过对中国深圳、重庆、潍坊三地的生态城市规划方案进行评价,结果显示,该模型可以有效地对生态城市规划方案进行综合评价,并根据评价结果提出针对性的优化建议,有助于降低生态城市规划实践的制度成本和社会成本。     

Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.     

An Eaton–Kortum model of trade and growth

We combine a multi‐country, continuum‐good Ricardian model of Eaton and Kortum (2002) with a multi‐country AK model of Acemoglu and Ventura (2002) to examine how trade liberalization affects countries' growth rates and extensive margins of trade over time. Focusing on the three‐country case, we obtain three main results. First, a permanent fall in any trade cost raises the balanced growth rate. Second, trade liberalization increases the liberalizing countries' long‐run fractions of exported varieties to all destinations. Third, the long‐run effects of trade liberalization are different from its short‐run effects, which can reverse the welfare implications of the static Eaton–Kortum model.     

School Performance in Australia: Is There a Role for Quasi‐Markets?

Recent changes to the organisation of Australia's education system have raised the possibility of implementing wide‐ranging market reforms. In this article we discuss the scope for introducing reforms similar to the United Kingdom's ‘quasi‐market’ model. We discuss the role of school league tables in providing signals and incentives in a quasi‐market. Specifically, we compare a range of unadjusted and model‐based league tables of primary school performance in Queensland's public education system. These comparisons indicate that model‐based tables which account for socio‐economic status and student intake quality vary significantly from the unadjusted tables.     

INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND THE MINIMUM WAGE: A PUTTY‐CLAY APPROACH

We document two new findings about the industry‐level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty‐clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry‐level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor‐intensive restaurants and entry of capital‐intensive restaurants. Interestingly, the putty‐clay model matches the small estimated short‐run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies, but produces a larger long‐run disemployment effect.     

FORECASTING GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES USING LARGE BAYESIAN VARS

This paper proposes a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model with common stochastic volatility to forecast global equity indices. Using a monthly dataset on global stock indices, the BVAR model controls for co‐movement commonly observed in global stock markets. Moreover, the time‐varying specification of the covariance structure accounts for sudden shifts in the level of volatility. In an out‐of‐sample forecasting application we show that the BVAR model with stochastic volatility significantly outperforms the random walk both in terms of point as well as density predictions. The BVAR model without stochastic volatility, on the other hand, shows some merits relative to the random walk for forecast horizons greater than six months ahead. In a portfolio allocation exercise we moreover provide evidence that it is possible to use the forecasts obtained from our model with common stochastic volatility to set up simple investment strategies. Our results indicate that these simple investment schemes outperform a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy.     

US HEALTH AND AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS

This paper aims to shed light on the importance of health considerations for business cycle fluctuations and the effect of health status on labour productivity and availability of labour input for productive use. To this end, Grossman's (2000) partial‐equilibrium framework with endogenous health is incorporated in an otherwise standard Real‐Business‐Cycle (RBC) model. Health status in this setup is modelled as a utility‐enhancing, intangible, and non‐transferrable capital stock, which depreciates over time. The household can improve their health (‘produce health') through investment using a health‐recovery technology. The main results are: (i) overall, the model compares well vis‐a‐vis data; (ii) the behaviour of the price of healthcare is adequately approximated by the shadow price of health in the model; (iii) the model‐generated health variable exhibits moderate‐ to high correlation with a large number of empirical health indicators.     

Industrial Targeting and Non‐shiftable Capital in the Harris–Todaro Model*

This paper shows that, in the 2 × 3 sector‐specific capital Harris–Todaro model, capital growth owing to either domestic or foreign investment always enhances the welfare of the country (i.e. non‐immiserizing), and this result of non‐immiserizing foreign investment holds regardless of initial holdings of foreign capital; the policy of industrial targeting via capital investment is more effective vis‐à‐vis the (neoclassical) 2 × 2 mobile‐capital Harris–Todaro model or the Heckscher–Ohlin model; in contrast to the recent generalization by Marjit and Beladi (2003 ), capital growth cannot be immiserizing in the present model, even if it destroys the “envelope theorem.”     

Dynamic Multi‐Activity Contests*

We develop a model of dynamic multi‐activity contests. Players simultaneously choose efforts in long‐run activities, observe each other's efforts in these activities, and then simultaneously choose efforts in short‐run activities. A player's long‐run and short‐run efforts complement each other in determining the player's probability of winning. We compare the outcomes of this two‐stage model to those of the corresponding model in which players choose efforts in all activities simultaneously. Interestingly, effort expenditures are always lower in the sequential multi‐activity contest than in the simultaneous multi‐activity contest. The implications of this result for the organization of military, litigation, innovation, academic, and sporting contests are highlighted.     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION,TECHNOLOGY CHOICE,AND WORKER ALLOCATION

We show empirically that high‐risk sectors, which contribute strongly to aggregate productivity growth, are relatively small and have relatively low productivity growth in countries with strict employment protection legislation (EPL). To understand these findings, we develop a two‐sector matching model where firms endogenously choose between a safe technology and a risky technology. For firms that have chosen the risky technology, EPL raises the costs of shedding workers in case they receive a low productivity draw. According to our calibrated model, high‐EPL countries benefit less from the arrival of new risky technologies than low‐EPL countries. Parameters estimated through reduced‐form regressions of employment and productivity on exit costs, riskiness, and in particular their interaction are qualitatively similar for actual cross‐country data and simulated model data. Our model is consistent with the slowdown in productivity in the European Union relative to the United States since the mid‐1990s.     

产业技术创新联盟知识共享的两阶段博弈分析

为推动产业技术创新联盟知识共享的高效率均衡,综合考虑知识的经济特征和产业导向的准公共性,设计了基于自组织和他组织知识共享的两阶段博弈模式。第一阶段,构建基于位势和效用的知识共享博弈模型,对比分析联盟集中决策与分散决策下成员个体特征、联盟特征等因素对知识共享效用的影响机理;第二阶段,建立基于激励和效用的知识共享博弈模型,剖析个体特征、联盟特征、联盟激励对知识共享效用的影响机理,并结合数值算例进行验证。由此,构建“自组织+他组织”的两阶段知识共享策略,为推动产业技术创新联盟知识共享的高效率均衡提供了理论参考。     

MONEY AND INFLATION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM P‐STAR MODEL

This study uses P‐star model to examine the role of money in explaining inflation in India. In particular, we compare the performance of traditional Phillips curve approach against P‐star model in forecasting inflation. Moreover, the study estimates P‐star model using the alternative measures of money such as simple sum and Divisia M3, to examine the relevance of aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates in explaining inflation. The empirical results indicate that P‐star model with real money gap has an edge over traditional Phillips curve approach in forecasting inflation. More importantly, we found that the P‐star model estimated with Divisia real money gap performs better than its simple sum counterpart. These empirical findings suggest that the changes in real money gap play a crucial role in explaining inflation in India.     

项目导向型供应链跨组织合作行为激励机制

在假定项目型组织平等合作的基础上,运用委托-代理理论和博弈论,纳入总承包商给予专业分包商基于监控信号的奖惩结构,构建了基于监控信号的项目导向型供应链跨组织合作激励模型,并与传统激励模型进行比较,通过数据模拟与模型算例,研究了监控信号对激励契约设计的影响。研究表明：通过引入监控信号,总承包商可以收集到更多有关专业分包商行为选择的信息,通过调整对专业分包商的奖励和惩罚力度,可以促进专业分包商采取合作行为,降低其机会主义行为,也可以降低总承包商对专业分包商激励的盲目性。     

MEAN‐PLUS‐NOISE FACTOR MODELS: AN EMPIRICAL EXPLORATION

In this paper I propose an alternative factor model whose common factor follows a mean‐plus‐noise process. While the existing methods for factor models should be valid for this model, their performance may be misleading in small samples. Because the likelihood function of this model is not tractable, I estimate this model by Bayesian methods. When applied to US macroeconomic time series, we find that the estimated mean‐plus‐noise factor is useful for predicting real personal income, industrial production and unemployment at long prediction horizons.     

Does Outsourcing Always Benefit Skilled Labor?

This paper builds a dynamic product cycle model with three kinds of labor inputs—scientists, white‐collar workers, and blue‐collar workers—and producer heterogeneity to find an explanation for why outsourcing did not cause wage inequality in the 1970s. According to the theoretical model, outsourcing decreases the wages of white‐collar workers and the relative wages of white‐collar workers to blue‐collar workers in the outsourcing home country if outsourcing industries are blue‐collar worker intensive compared with non‐outsourcing industries. Scientists who conduct research and development always benefit from outsourcing.