城市低龄退休老年人再就业现状 ——以北京市老年交通协管员为例

随着老龄人口规模的日益扩大,我国将面临着巨大的人口年龄结构老化压力,如何合理开发老年人力资源成为新的时代命题。项目组抽样选择北京市46个公交车站和地铁站的120位老年交通协管员作为研究对象,采用问卷调查与结构式访谈相结合的方法,调查城市低龄退休老年人再就业现状,研究发现老年人低龄退休后仍有较强的工作意愿。此外,本文进一步分析影响老年人再就业现状的因素,并探索改善城市低龄退休老年人再就业困境的方法。     

西部农村老年人经济保障影响因素实证分析

本文利用中国老龄科研中心2006年中国城乡10%老年人口状况追踪抽样调查数据(西部农村部分),采用Binary Logistic回归分析,考察了客观经济保障(制度性与家庭性)、家庭关系(孝)、健康(自评健康)、人口社会特征(性别、年龄、受教育程度、婚姻、经济自评)等因素对老年人经济保障主观自评的影响。研究结果显示,子女是否孝顺的评价、经济状况自评对老年人经济保障自评的影响显著,子女孝顺评价高、经济状况自评好对老年人主观上的经济保障自评信心具有显著提升作用。     

美国制造业就业和工资的影响因素研究——基于细分行业的经验证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

通过构建劳动力市场一般动态均衡模型,推导出影响就业和工资的主要因素,然后利用岭回归实证研究了各因素对美国制造业细分行业就业和工资的影响,试图找出其中的关键因素。研究发现:利率对就业的负向影响最显著,其次是国际原油价格,虽然个人可支配收入对就业的影响较小,但对工资的正向驱动势头却很显著,而人民币汇率的影响作用最小。由于人民币加入SDR是人民币汇率退出盯住单一美元的有利契机,随着人民币与美元的"部分脱钩",在未来人民币汇率通过传导机制对美国制造业就业和工资的影响会更加微弱。此外,工会特征是造成美国制造业行业间就业和工资水平差异的显著因素;平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度,则能对行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。     

老年商业医疗保险影响因素的实证研究

研究探讨中国老年商业医疗保险消费的影响因素,以2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪抽样调查数据为依托,运用Logistic回归方法进行实证分析。研究发现,女性购买商业医疗保险的可能性是男性的0.64倍,受教育程度为私塾的老年人购买的可能性是没读过书老年人的2.07倍,有偶分居和离婚群体购买商业医疗的可能性远远高于有偶同住人群,非农户口群体购买的可能性是农业户口人群的0.47倍,老年人自理困难指数每提高一个单位,购买商业医疗保险的可能性降低16%。总的来说,人口学特征和老年人健康水平对老年商业医疗保险的消费存在显著影响,男性、受教育程度高、婚姻状态不稳定、农村户籍、健康水平较好的老年人更可能拥有老年商业医疗保险。     

残障人士就业影响因素实证研究

残障人士就业受到性别、年龄、文化程度、技能等多方面因素的影响。文章通过对来自江苏250个样本数据的逻辑回归发现,残障人士中男性比女性更容易就业,青壮年比中老年更容易就业,技能对残障人士就业的影响显著,同时不同因素对就业的影响是不同的。政府应在消除就业歧视的同时,注重对残障人士技能的培训,完善九年义务教育,提高残障人士的文化程度。     

知识型低龄老年教师再工作意愿的影响因素分析

当前,中国经济发展正面临着技术进步、产业升级的困境,而知识型人才是推动技术创新的源泉。因此,对知识型低龄老年教师进行有效地开发不失为一种积极主动的应对措施。基于此,通过在全国5省市范围内发放问卷的形式获得第一手数据,基于三元交互决定论和马斯洛需求层次理论,利用Logistic回归分析,对知识型低龄老年教师再工作意愿的影响因素进行探究,并提出可供选择的路径,以期能够有效应对人口老龄化,解决高技术人才短缺的问题,保障低龄教师继续实现个人价值,促进社会经济可持续发展。     

海宁市老年人劳动参与、社会支持对生活质量的影响分析

本文拟从提高老年人生活质量为视角出发,以海宁市老年人为研究对象,运用同伴推动法(RDS)进行调查,并运用有序Logistic回归模型分析老年人劳动参与、社会支持对其生活质量的影响。研究发现,户口所在地、职业荣誉、拥有退休养老金、与老伴子女一起生活、社会支持中的家庭支持与政府支持对老年人的生活质量存在正向影响,而受教育程度则呈现负向影响;是否拥有医疗保险、固定资产对其生活质量没有显著影响。基于此,本文对地方政策如何发挥在老年人劳动参与过程中的扶持、规划、规范等职能以提高老年人生活质量提出对策性建议。     

人口老龄化与老年人口就业与再就业

人口老龄化使我国的老年人口就业与再就业既必要叉紧迫。在人口老龄化背景下，我国应将城镇低龄老年人口的就业再就业作为工作重点，将进入劳动力市场的老年人口向第三产业输导，并建立健全专为老年人口就业的服务和培训机构。     

数字参与对老年人心理健康的影响

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据,运用OLS和Oprobit模型从认知能力、抑郁程度、生活满意感三个方面探讨数字参与对老年人心理健康的影响。实证结果表明：第一,数字参与对老年人的认知能力和抑郁程度影响显著,但对生活满意感影响不显著,同时数字参与频率越高,越能显著提升老年人的认知能力,并降低其抑郁程度。第二,根据数字参与行为目的细分参与类型后发现,社交型数字参与对认知能力和抑郁程度的影响显著,而信息型、工具型和娱乐型数字参与带来的影响均不显著。第三,数字参与对农村老年人抑郁程度的影响显著,但对城镇老年人的影响不显著;同时其对低龄老年人的认知能力和抑郁程度影响显著,但对高龄老年人的影响不显著,且社交型数字参与的显著影响也主要体现于低龄老年人群体。由此,应进一步推进数字助老行动,并重点关注高龄老年人和农村老年人的数字技能帮扶问题,促使全体老年人在共享数字建设成果的同时增进心理健康水平。     

通讯工具的拥有对老年人亲情交往频率的影响

本文利用中国老龄科研中心2006年中国城乡10%老年人口状况追踪抽样调查数据,采用Binary Logistic回归分析,在控制了个体的人口学特征(性别、年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况)及其经济状况、健康相关特征与老年人的住房与居住状况后,考察了一般通讯工具的拥有(电话、手机等)对老年人亲情交往的影响。研究结果显示,自变量"通讯工具的拥有(电话、手机)"对老年人亲情交往频率的影响显著,一般通讯工具的拥有(电话、手机)对老年人亲情交往频率具有增强的作用,拥有一般通讯工具(电话、手机)的老年人亲情交往频率高于没有通讯工具的。即:拥有两种通讯工具的老年人亲情交往频率是没有通讯工具的2.368倍,拥有一种通讯工具的老年人亲情交往频率是没有通讯工具的1.279倍。     

缩小数字鸿沟对退休再就业是否有帮助

本文使用CHARLS 数据构建了Logit 模型，以数字鸿沟为核心解释变量，结合个人特征、社会保障和对外经济支持等方面分析了数字鸿沟对退休再就业的影响。研究发现，其中老年数字鸿沟能够减少退休后的受雇就业，导致更多的退休人口选择不就业，但是对退休后是否自雇就业没有影响。综合而言，缩小老年数字鸿沟对退休再就业有显著的积极作用。此外，男性退休后更倾向于受雇就业，女性通常更需要照顾家庭。年龄对退休后受雇就业和自主经营具有负向影响，且影响程度相当。健康状况和社交活动参与对退休再就业也有显著影响。基于研究结果，本文提出相应的对策建议。     

农村中青年养老方式影响因素的多项式Logistic回归分析

农村养老是社会养老保障的重中之重,日益受到政府的关注。但是,许多研究多从农村老年人养老现状入手进行描述分析,我们认为,社会发展对农村老年人的养老观念、养老方式等影响明显,但是老年人的养老是在与子女互动中体现的,不可避免地会对年轻的子女产生影响。本研究通过问卷调查,利用logistic模型来研究中青年农民养老选择方式的决定因素。研究显示,性别、年龄、文化程度、享有医疗保险、与父母同住、得到父母支助等是影响农村中青年人养老方式选择的主要因素。     

Choices between different off-farm employment sub-categories: An empirical analysis for Jiangxi Province, China

This paper analyzes the relative importance of four sub-categories of off-farm employment, and the factors driving participation of individuals in these sub-categories for three villages in Jiangxi Province. We find that migration is the most important type of off-farm employment, while agricultural wage employment is a minor activity. Migrant remittances are smaller than household incomes earned from self-employment and local non-farm employment. The results of a multinomial probit analysis explaining off-farm participation decisions show that presence of young children in a household restrains participation in migration, while the presence of elderly persons and a higher level of education stimulate migration. Local wage employment and self-employment are not affected by these factors. The gender bias in access to off-farm employment is largest for agricultural employment and local non-agricultural employment. Land scarcity stimulates participation in migration and local non-agricultural employment, while possibilities to rent land out to other farmers stimulate only migration. The paper ends with policy suggestions for promoting off-farm employment within the own region and for altering the criteria for land distribution to rural households.     

解决就业和再就业问题之我见

解决就业和再就业问题的出路,在于进一步健全社会保障体系,千方百计扩大就业;依靠市场,使就业步入健康轨道;加快发展,以发展促就业;加快高等职业教育的发展,提高就业质量;转变就业观念,推行灵活多样的就业形式;完善政策扶持体系,鼓励有能力的职工自主创业。     

社会资本与失业者再就业经济地位——以保定市为例

文章将失业者的再就业视为一个职业经济地位获得的过程。通过对保定市300名失业者的实证研究,着重考察了失业者拥有的社会资本（通过其社会网络规模、网络密度与社会网络嵌入资源）对其再就业经济地位所起的作用。笔者认为,社会资本对失业者再就业经济地位有显著影响,但只集中在嵌入的网络资源方面。在此基础上,文章提出在社会结构转型期应重视社会资本对再就业经济地位的作用与局限。     

Lifetime employment as a coordination failure

This paper examines welfare implications of lifetime employment—a type of employment protection which arises endogenously. Lifetime employment is viewed as a commitment to assuring job security for a worker who makes effort, regardless of his actual productivity. Two effects arise from this commitment to lifetime employment: (i) it lowers the cost of inducing effort; (ii) it also has an external effect on the average quality of unemployed workers, which significantly affects the prospect of reemployment. The interaction of these two effects generates a type of strategic complementarity which results in multiple equilibria under certain conditions. We argue that the equilibrium in which all firms are committed to lifetime employment tends to be less efficient since inefficient matches are bound to perpetuate in this type of equilibrium.     

对乌鲁木齐市零就业家庭24小时动态清零政策实施情况的调查

就业是民生之本，是促进社会和谐发展的重要基础。2010年召开的自治区党委七届九次全委扩大会议提出重点解决零就业家庭就业问题，并且将零就业家庭就业援助工作作为新疆实现跨越式发展和长治久安的一项重点民生工程。2011年是自治区确定的民生建设年，如何继续落实好零就业家庭24小时动态清零政策，促进就业再就业工作是当前亟待解决的问题。本文通过对零就业家庭就业援助政策背景、实施情况、存在问题等进行深入分析，提出了提升零就业家庭成员就业竞争力、促进零就业家庭稳定就业的相关对策建议。     

The Labour Market Potential for Scientists, Engineers and Managers in Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire

This paper examines the issue of the potential employability of the highly-skilled post-retirement from employment in large firms and research institutions in small high-tech firms. The thesis of the study reported here, funded by the Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire (MKOB) Learning and Skills Council (L & SC), is that reemployment might help address problems of skill shortages in the MKOB region, particularly in its increasing number of high-tech firms. Early retirement removes valuable skills from the labour market. The paper has a more general interest because it highlights the considerable challenges to policy makers faced with a diversity of employment profiles within regions.     

Japan's elderly small business managers: Performance and succession

We investigate the effects of succession from an elderly to a nonelderly small business manager using firm-level data for Japan. The number of elderly small business managers has increased in Japan with the aging of the population; therefore, succession to younger managers has become an important policy issue. We make use of data for 2001–2015 for 188,021 small businesses, of which 77,773 at some point have a manager aged 60 or older and 8711 of these transition to a manager of under age 60. First, we investigate the relationship between firm performance and manager age. Performance is found to be lower for firms with elderly managers. Second, we estimate the determinants of succession in small businesses with elderly managers, showing that larger, less leveraged, more cash-rich, and profitable firms are more likely to transition to younger managers. Our results imply that more poorly performing firms are less likely to replace elderly managers, suggesting that such firms are not selected by young managers. Third, we examine post-succession performance using propensity score matching. Succession from elderly to young managers is shown to have positive effects on sales, employment, assets, return on assets, capital investment, and cash holdings. These results imply that succession improves firm growth. Furthermore, young successors tend to accumulate cash holdings implying that they are more risk averse and/or face tighter credit constraints than their predecessors.     

Impact of Childcare and Eldercare on Off‐farm Activities in Rural China

Using individual data collected in rural China and adopting Heckman's two‐step function, we examined the impact of childcare and eldercare on laborers' off‐farm activities. Our study finds that having school‐aged children has a negative impact on rural laborers' migration decisions and a positive impact on their decision to work in the local off‐farm employment market. As grandparents can help to take care of young children, the impact of preschoolers is insignificant. Having elderly family to care for decreases the income earned by female members of the family. Although both men and women are actively engaged in off‐farm employment today in rural China, this study shows that women are still the primary care providers for both children and the elderly. Therefore, reforming public school enrollment and high school/college entrance examination systems so that migrant children can stay with their parents, this will help rural laborers to migrate to cities. The present study also calls for more public services for preschoolers and the elderly in rural China.